三季度债券市场利率向下突破的动力是什么？ 利率向下突破的动力——三季度债市展望 20250703 摘要 当前资金面宽松，机构投资者对资金面的分歧可能减轻，并趋向一致乐 观，即使没有央行干预，资金也会保持宽松状态，从而驱动利率继续下 行。 尽管没有宏观基本面或央行政策的大幅宽松，低利率环境下投资者竞争 激烈，机构行为对市场影响力放大，三季度可能形成一致看多局面，推 动利率自然向下突破。 下半年固收资管产品购买意愿预计会提升，企业和居民更倾向于配置固 收资管产品，受缺乏高收益低风险资产、股市分流资金有限及理财产品 吸引力影响。 银行和保险机构预计将加大对债券市场的配置力度，反映出他们对于稳 定收益资产需求增加，同时也符合当前宏观经济环境下稳健投资策略的 发展方向。 2025 年上半年银行在基金投资方面表现出较为谨慎的态度，但从二季 度末开始，债券基金的表现明显边际好转，银行的流动性管理已经有所 缓解。 Q&A 我们认为三季度债券市场利率存在向下突破的动力，这一判断主要基于机构行 为的视角。首先，资金面的担忧虽然在 6 月份有所缓解，但市场普遍预期 7 月 份之后资金面会边际收紧。然而，我们认为这种预期可能会落空， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decline in bond market interest rates for 2024, with the one-year government bond yield expected to drop to around 1.1%, a decrease of approximately 100 basis points, and the ten-year yield to 1.68%, down 88 basis points, marking the lowest levels recorded [2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The total issuance of various bonds in the market is projected to reach 79.62 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [2] - By the end of 2024, the total custody amount in the bond market is expected to reach 177 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year [2] - The overall trading volume in the market is anticipated to be 2735.44 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The report forecasts a unilateral downward trend in bond market interest rates for 2024, with one-year, ten-year, and thirty-year government bond yields expected to decline by 100, 88, and 91 basis points respectively, all falling below 2% [2] - The yields on both government and credit bonds are expected to decrease significantly, with credit spreads widening in the short term and narrowing in the medium to long term [2] Group 3: Factors Influencing Interest Rate Decline - The primary reasons for the substantial decline in interest rates include a weak financing demand from enterprises and households, with a preference for low-risk assets among residents [3] - The central bank's timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, along with measures to guide down the comprehensive financing costs, are contributing to the downward pressure on rates [3] - A consensus among investors regarding the expectation of declining interest rates has further stimulated trading demand, leading to lower bond market yields [3]