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信用利差周报2025年第29期:交易商协会“反内卷”规范债券发行,美国9月降息预期上升-20250813
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-13 03:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still subject to certain disturbances, but the fundamentals and capital still support the market. The yield center may remain low in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to potential disturbances and grasp trading opportunities [20]. - The issuance of the "Notice" by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors is conducive to strengthening market constraints and self - discipline management, improving market operation efficiency, and promoting the high - quality development of the bond market [5]. - The weakening US employment data has significantly increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, which may promote international capital inflows, narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, and create opportunities for domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the "Notice" to standardize bond issuance and underwriting, aiming to improve the market - oriented pricing efficiency of bonds, strengthen market constraints and self - discipline management, and promote the high - quality development of the bond market [5][12][13]. - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in July, but the weak US employment data in July has increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it may have a three - fold impact on the domestic bond market [6][16][17]. Macroeconomic Data - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry both contracted, and the economic growth momentum was still weak. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from June [7][21][22]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank made a net investment of 690 million yuan through open - market operations. After the month - end, the capital demand decreased, and the capital prices of most terms declined. The Shibor showed a trend of rising first and then falling [26]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous week, with a total issuance of 217.421 billion yuan, a decrease of 106.896 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation scale of issuance increased. The issuance costs of credit bonds showed mixed trends [28][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 12.1408 billion yuan to 184.6795 billion yuan. The yields of interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds declined, the credit spreads mostly expanded, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [40]. Appendix - There were several bond default and extension events in the bond market, including "R Hongda 1", "15 Huazi Bond", "16 Huaye 02", etc. [53]. - There were a series of regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors' issuance of multiple notices to improve relevant information services and regulatory requirements [53][55].