作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指基>现金 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | | 回顾 | 管理>短债基金>中长期借審 现金管理 > 中长期债基 近一个月,供给端"反内卷"和需求 | | | | 1 月偏强震荡,2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 端基建、民生政策落地,基本面修复 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 债市回顾 | 预期强化,市场风险偏好抬升,资金 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡,7月以来有所回 | | | 面维持相对宽松。长债弱于短债，信 | | | | 用债弱于利率债。 | 调。 | | | | 1.财政部、税务总局明确自８月８日起,对新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券 | | 行业事件跟踪 | 利息收入恢复征收增值税。 | | | | | 2.近期多家头部保险公司宣布下调产品预定利率，将于 8 月 31 日前完成产品切换。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still subject to certain disturbances, but the fundamentals and capital still support the market. The yield center may remain low in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to potential disturbances and grasp trading opportunities [20]. - The issuance of the "Notice" by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors is conducive to strengthening market constraints and self - discipline management, improving market operation efficiency, and promoting the high - quality development of the bond market [5]. - The weakening US employment data has significantly increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, which may promote international capital inflows, narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, and create opportunities for domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the "Notice" to standardize bond issuance and underwriting, aiming to improve the market - oriented pricing efficiency of bonds, strengthen market constraints and self - discipline management, and promote the high - quality development of the bond market [5][12][13]. - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in July, but the weak US employment data in July has increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it may have a three - fold impact on the domestic bond market [6][16][17]. Macroeconomic Data - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry both contracted, and the economic growth momentum was still weak. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from June [7][21][22]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank made a net investment of 690 million yuan through open - market operations. After the month - end, the capital demand decreased, and the capital prices of most terms declined. The Shibor showed a trend of rising first and then falling [26]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous week, with a total issuance of 217.421 billion yuan, a decrease of 106.896 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation scale of issuance increased. The issuance costs of credit bonds showed mixed trends [28][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 12.1408 billion yuan to 184.6795 billion yuan. The yields of interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds declined, the credit spreads mostly expanded, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [40]. Appendix - There were several bond default and extension events in the bond market, including "R Hongda 1", "15 Huazi Bond", "16 Huaye 02", etc. [53]. - There were a series of regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors' issuance of multiple notices to improve relevant information services and regulatory requirements [53][55].

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the yield central tendency in the bond market is difficult to reverse in the long - term due to economic pressure, but it may first decline and then rise in the short - term [4][29] - The macro - environment is still favorable for the bond market, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain liquidity [24][29] - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of government bonds and other bonds has multiple meanings and will affect the bond market [6] Summary by Directory Hot - Spot Review - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. The VAT rate for banks, insurance, and securities self - operating departments will change from 0 to 6%, and for public funds and other asset management products, from 0 to 3% [6] - The resumption has three meanings: releasing incremental fiscal space to ease fiscal pressure (estimated to increase annual fiscal revenue by 200 - 410 billion yuan), optimizing the bond market tax policy and strengthening the benchmark function of national bond yields, and optimizing resource allocation by guiding funds to other fields and narrowing the spreads between old and new bonds and credit spreads [6][7][9] July Interest Rate Operation Review Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In July, the central bank's open - market operations were relatively loose, with a net capital injection of 488 billion yuan, but a decrease of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations at times of tight liquidity [11] - The central tendency of capital interest rates declined. The DR007 central tendency was 1.516%, a 6.17 - BP decline from the previous month, and the R007 central tendency was 1.5296%, a 10.35 - BP decline. The DR007 - R007 spread was at a historically low level, indicating looser non - bank liquidity [12][14] Interest - Bearing Bond Yield Review - The 10 - year national bond yield central tendency increased. At the end of the month, it reached 1.7044%, a 5.75 - BP increase from the previous month's end, and the central tendency increased by 2.66 BP to 1.68%. The term spread widened by 1.7 BP to 32.37 BP [16] - In July, the trading volume of interest - bearing bonds increased by 5.25 trillion yuan to 28.18 trillion yuan. The trading volume of national bonds increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, local bonds decreased by 195.833 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 4.06 trillion yuan [16] Follow - up Outlook Macro - environment - The central tendency of national bond yields may continue to decline, but short - term incremental policies may drive yields up. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Consumption and investment in June showed marginal cooling [22] - The central government will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, and the NDRC will promote the establishment of new policy - based financial instruments, which may improve macro - data but have a negative impact on the bond market [22] Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. There is a need for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts due to high real interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates in the third quarter, providing space for China's monetary policy easing. The central tendency of yields may decline further this year [24] - In the short - term, the central bank will maintain liquidity by increasing open - market operations despite the accelerated issuance of government bonds [24] Bond Market Strategy - The short - term adjustment of the interest - income tax rate on national bonds may lead to a rush to buy old bonds, driving yields down, and then the yield central tendency may rise due to the tax premium [28] - The stock market's anti - involution trend and the NDRC's new policies may increase market risk appetite and have a negative impact on bond yields [29] - Enterprises planning to issue bonds can consider starting in late Q3 to reduce financing costs [29]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance investment in people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and strengthen economic resilience [1][5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments to ensure effective policy implementation [1][9] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][4] - Local general public budget revenue reached 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting revenue growth [2][3] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Initiatives - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds to support consumption, with 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of consumer goods replacement subsidies [5][6] - The total sales of consumer goods under the replacement program reached 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [6][7] Group 4: Social Welfare and Support - New policies for free preschool education and childcare subsidies are expected to benefit approximately 12 million children, with an additional 20 billion yuan in fiscal spending [8][9] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments by 8.4%, amounting to 1.03415 trillion yuan, to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining spending intensity to support consumption and investment [10][11] - The introduction of long-term special bonds and local special bonds is anticipated to further solidify the positive trend in high-quality economic development [10]

增值税调整，债券策略再思考 20250811 新代码的地方政府债券发行活跃度如何？市场机构对其兴趣如何？ 新代码的地方政府债券在发行活跃度方面表现出色。根据测算，新代码债券的 收益率比旧代码债券平均高出 5 个基点，定价约为 3%的增值税。这一定价水 平反映了市场机构对新代码债券的额外溢价回报要求。尽管资管机构征收 3% 的增值税，自营机构征收 6%，但新代码债券主要由自营盘主导，因此其定价 在 0%到 6%之间，最终博弈结果为 3%。这表明自营类机构并未完全将税负转 嫁给发行人，而是达成了双方利益的平衡。 对于市场兴趣而言，自营类机构对 新代码地方政府债券表现出较高兴趣，因为这些债券在税前考核下具有投资吸 引力。尽管增值税可能影响利润，但只要新代码债券回报率高于旧代码，投资 者仍然乐于接受。此外，如果未来有更多通道型产品参与二级市场交易，新代 码债券的定价增值税影响可能进一步降低至 2%-3%。 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面有何变化？ 新旧地方政府债券在流动性和利差方面均表现出显著变化。由于新旧两种编码 的活跃度都较高，新老码之间的利差将进一步收窄。这意味着之前因流动性差 异导致的新老码利差将有所减少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, marks a significant shift in the tax environment of China's bond market [2][3][10] Group 1: Policy Background - The previous tax exemption for interest income from government bonds and financial bonds was established to support the development of the bond market during its early stages [2] - The transition to VAT was facilitated by the implementation of the comprehensive VAT reform in 2016, which included provisions for the exemption of interest income from government bonds and local government bonds [3] - The issuance of the VAT Law in December 2024 did not include exemptions for interest income from government bonds, creating room for the recent policy adjustment [3] Group 2: Key Points of the Announcement - The announcement outlines the specific types of bonds affected, including the need for clarity on the treatment of "renewed issuance" bonds and whether they will continue to enjoy tax exemptions [5] - There is ambiguity regarding whether "policy financial bonds" fall under the category of "financial bonds" as defined in the announcement, which may lead to potential taxation [6] Group 3: Implications for VAT - New bonds issued after August 8, 2025, will require a separation of price and tax for interest income, distinguishing between "new bonds" and "old bonds" for tax treatment [7] - The change in tax status for new bonds will affect the calculation of input tax credits, potentially lowering the proportion of non-deductible input tax [7] - Asset management products investing in new bonds will no longer enjoy VAT exemptions, which may impact their investment structure and competitiveness [7] Group 4: Implications for Corporate Income Tax - Companies must report interest income from new bonds based on the net amount excluding VAT to avoid over-reporting [9] - There may be discrepancies in the documentation required for corporate income tax exemptions, leading to potential scrutiny from tax authorities [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The announcement signifies a new phase in the VAT policy for bond interest income, presenting both challenges and opportunities for market participants [10] - Continuous observation and analysis of policy dynamics will be essential as the bond market evolves and tax regulations are refined [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will reinstate value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The VAT rates are set at 6% for financial institutions (e.g., banks, insurance companies) and 3% for asset management products (e.g., public funds, brokerage asset management) [3][4]. - For example, a newly issued 1 million yuan 10-year government bond with a coupon rate of 1.7% will yield an annual interest of 17,000 yuan, leading to a tax liability of 1,020 yuan for banks and 510 yuan for public funds [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Different Investors - The policy primarily affects institutional investors, particularly banks, which hold 70% of government debt, as they will face increased tax burdens [6][7]. - Individual investors, whose monthly interest income from government bonds is below the 100,000 yuan tax exemption threshold, will not be affected by the VAT [6][8]. Group 3: Rationale Behind the Policy - The reinstatement of VAT is aimed at addressing the overheating of the bond market, which has grown from 63 trillion yuan to 183 trillion yuan over the past decade, and to restore fairness between interest-bearing bonds and credit bonds [7][8]. - The government is also facing rising fiscal pressures, particularly due to declining land sale revenues, necessitating new tax revenues, which could amount to 34 billion yuan in the short term and potentially reach 100 billion yuan annually in the long term [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The tax on bond interest is seen as a mechanism to encourage funds to flow out of low-risk assets like government bonds and into equities, real estate, and consumption, thereby stimulating the economy [8][9]. - The policy signals potential future tax reforms, including the introduction of inheritance tax, capital gains tax, and property tax, as part of broader fiscal strategies [8][12].

Economic Growth - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight for the second half of the year[9] - The focus is on effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with attention to service consumption growth and investment in key projects[9] - The macro policy aims to fully leverage existing policies for economic multiplier effects[9] Infrastructure and Industry Policies - The national childcare subsidy program will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually until the child reaches three years old, with a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan allocated for this year[10] - Policies are being implemented to support new industrialization and prevent disordered competition in key industries[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined eight key areas for work in the second half of the year, including promoting artificial intelligence and digital transformation in manufacturing[12] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions[13] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and support credit growth in key sectors, including technology and small enterprises[13] - Various monetary policy tools will be utilized to enhance policy transmission and effectiveness[14] Fiscal Policy - The government has resumed the collection of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025[15] - Natural persons will be exempt from VAT on bond interest income up to 100,000 yuan[16] Real Estate Policy - Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, allowing unlimited purchases of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road for eligible residents[17] Trade Relations - China and the U.S. have agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for an additional 90 days, aiming to enhance cooperation and reduce misunderstandings[19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintains the view that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. Currently, it has entered the starting point of the second stage of the bond market's three - step process in the second half of the year. August is regarded as an oscillatory adjustment period after redemption, but the market has not shown a trend improvement in the quarterly dimension [26]. - In the short term, there may be a small - band long - trading window in the first half of August. New bond issuance pressure is low, the VAT policy still benefits old bonds, large banks' bond - allocation power is strong, funds are loose, upcoming weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and historically, policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - For trading portfolios, seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August for small - band trading. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities brought by the VAT policy [45]. - For allocation portfolios, wait for new bonds to adjust to more suitable positions, and consider old bonds at curve convex points, such as 6y CDB, 7y ADBC, 10y CDB, and 15y treasury bonds [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Value - added Tax New Rule: One - week Market Conditions - **Emotional Impact Stage (August 1st, 4th)**: The "old - new cut - off" of the VAT policy led to tax - exemption advantages for old bonds. Institutions rushed to buy old bonds, with the yield of the 10y treasury active bond dropping from 1.715% to 1.68%, then rising back to around 1.7% due to profit - taking and a strong stock market [13]. - **Bank Bond - buying Stage (August 5th - 7th)**: Banks continued to buy bonds, with the intensity weakening. On August 6th, the Agricultural Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank rushed to issue tax - exempt bonds. The auction results started to price in negative factors as investors awaited higher - yielding new bonds [16][19]. - **New Bond Issuance Stage (August 8th)**: The first batch of local bonds in Hebei and Hubei were auctioned. The adjustment of Hebei bonds was large, attracting more investors to Hubei bonds. The overall impact of VAT on new bonds was controllable, with the adjustment range mostly within the 3 - 6% tax rate [22][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - **Quarterly Dimension**: Maintains that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. The bond market is in a difficult trading situation, and accounts need to gradually increase liquidity [26]. - **Short - term (First Half of August)**: There may be a small - band long - trading window. New bond issuance pressure is low, funds are loose, weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - **Trading Portfolios**: Seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities [45]. - **Allocation Portfolios**: Wait for new bonds to adjust and consider old bonds at curve convex points [48]. 3.3 Interest - rate Bond Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The central bank's support and the VAT new policy had limited impact. Long - term bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield curve steepened, with the 1y treasury active bond yield down 1.5BP, the 10y down 0.4BP, and the 30y up 1.8BP [9]. - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, but the funding was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were at low levels, and the central bank's front - loaded 3M term repurchase operations showed a supportive attitude [10]. - **Primary Issuance**: Net financing of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while that of local bonds decreased [69]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of treasury bonds and CDB bonds widened. Short - term bond yields performed better than long - term ones [63].