债券骑乘机会

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固收专题:增配中短端高票息城投,3-5Y永续债具备骑乘机会
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 14:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Increase allocation of 2 - 3 - year AA - grade strong - qualification urban investment bonds, and 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds have riding opportunities [1][9] - The credit bond market this week shows the characteristics of "short - end adjustment and long - end pressure", and it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupons, pay attention to the regional differentiation of urban investment bonds and the liquidity premium opportunities of secondary and perpetual bonds, and be vigilant against the phased disturbance of the bond market by the recovery of the equity market [9] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will resume the collection of value - added tax, while existing bonds remain tax - free. This adjustment aims to enhance the benchmark function of the treasury bond yield curve in the medium and long term and support fiscal sustainability [4] - On July 30, 2025, the Politburo meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds [5] Credit Bond Market Conditions Primary Issuance - From July 28 to August 1, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance scale of industrial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 178.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.2 billion yuan; the net financing was 54.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 73.6 billion yuan [6] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds this week was 4.11 years, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 pct [6] Secondary Trading - The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with significant declines in the turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 5 - 7 years [6] - The turnover rate of bank secondary and perpetual bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rates of AAA - and AA + grades decreased significantly, while the turnover rate of AA grade increased [6] Spread Tracking - As of August 1, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [7] - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of all ratings for the 1 - year term narrowed, those for the 3 - year term widened, and for the 5 - year term, except for a slight narrowing of 1.71BP for the AA variety, others widened. The spreads of the AA - grade for the 3Y and 5Y terms widened the most, by 5 - 6BP [7] - The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds at all terms and grades narrowed this week. The 3Y, AAA - variety narrowed the most, by 4.28BP; the 1Y, AA - and AA varieties narrowed the least, by 1.98bp; the average narrowing amplitude of the spreads of the 5Y varieties was the largest, by 3.19BP [7] - In terms of regions, the spreads of urban investment bonds in 14 provinces widened slightly this week, with Liaoning and Qinghai having the largest widening amplitudes of 7 - 8BP [7] - For industrial bonds, the spreads of most industries widened slightly this week. The spread of AA + - grade industrial bonds in the construction and decoration industry widened the most, by 4.8bp [8]