Market Overview - In May, lead prices initially rose but later faced downward pressure due to increased lead ingot inventories during the "May Day" holiday, followed by a rebound due to improved US-China trade policies [1] - The lead market is currently experiencing a weak oscillation trend as the domestic lead-acid battery market enters a consumption off-season, despite some macroeconomic positive sentiments being released [1] Supply Dynamics - Environmental inspections have delayed the resumption of some recycled lead smelting plants, leading to a strengthening of lead prices in early June [1] - In the first quarter, overseas lead concentrate production decreased by over 20,000 metal tons due to adverse weather and declining ore grades, but supply is expected to recover as weather improves and new mines come online [2] Domestic Mining and Smelting - Domestic mining profits remain reasonable, with northern mines resuming seasonal production, resulting in the highest operating rates in nearly three years [3] - The focus of smelting plants has shifted towards by-product profits, which may limit the increase in primary lead production despite stable lead concentrate supply [3] Recycled Lead Production - In the second quarter, demand for waste batteries is typically low, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of waste batteries and a corresponding decrease in recycled lead production [4] - Some recycled lead smelting plants are planning to resume production in early June, but the overall increase in recycled lead output is expected to be limited due to tight raw material supplies [4] Downstream Demand - The second quarter marks the beginning of the replacement off-season for lead-acid batteries, with inventory levels reaching the highest since 2017, up 27.63% compared to the five-year average [5] - Despite high growth rates in terminal sales data, domestic lead-acid battery market demand is unlikely to show significant improvement due to shorter stocking cycles and increased penetration of lithium batteries [5][6] Price Outlook - Overall, while recycled lead supply is slightly recovering and primary lead production remains stable, weak downstream demand is expected to limit upward price movements, leading to a potential shift towards a weak oscillation trend in lead prices [6]