1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Environmental inspections have a phased impact on coking coal supply. With downstream restocking demand, coal mine shipments have improved, and prices of some coal types have stabilized. Some high - quality and scarce resources have rebounded slightly. The terminal hot metal production continues to rise, and demand support is relatively stable. Steel mills' profitability has improved, with some restocking behavior, but overall they purchase on - demand. It is expected that coking coal prices may be weak in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: As the price of coking coal stabilizes and rebounds, coke enterprises' cost pressure increases, and some have cut production due to narrowed profit margins. Market sentiment has improved, and downstream steel mills and traders' purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Coke shipments are relatively smooth, and inventory pressure has eased. With steel mills' production enthusiasm high, restocking demand has slightly increased, and speculative trading has increased. With cost support from coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 30 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are detailed, with some prices showing increases such as the main coking coal K4 at Rizhao Port increasing by 15, and the fat coal Elga at Caofeidian Port increasing by 15 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Production - related - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [35]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]. 3.4 Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower purchasing of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Market Overview - In May, lead prices initially rose but later faced downward pressure due to increased lead ingot inventories during the "May Day" holiday, followed by a rebound due to improved US-China trade policies [1] - The lead market is currently experiencing a weak oscillation trend as the domestic lead-acid battery market enters a consumption off-season, despite some macroeconomic positive sentiments being released [1] Supply Dynamics - Environmental inspections have delayed the resumption of some recycled lead smelting plants, leading to a strengthening of lead prices in early June [1] - In the first quarter, overseas lead concentrate production decreased by over 20,000 metal tons due to adverse weather and declining ore grades, but supply is expected to recover as weather improves and new mines come online [2] Domestic Mining and Smelting - Domestic mining profits remain reasonable, with northern mines resuming seasonal production, resulting in the highest operating rates in nearly three years [3] - The focus of smelting plants has shifted towards by-product profits, which may limit the increase in primary lead production despite stable lead concentrate supply [3] Recycled Lead Production - In the second quarter, demand for waste batteries is typically low, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of waste batteries and a corresponding decrease in recycled lead production [4] - Some recycled lead smelting plants are planning to resume production in early June, but the overall increase in recycled lead output is expected to be limited due to tight raw material supplies [4] Downstream Demand - The second quarter marks the beginning of the replacement off-season for lead-acid batteries, with inventory levels reaching the highest since 2017, up 27.63% compared to the five-year average [5] - Despite high growth rates in terminal sales data, domestic lead-acid battery market demand is unlikely to show significant improvement due to shorter stocking cycles and increased penetration of lithium batteries [5][6] Price Outlook - Overall, while recycled lead supply is slightly recovering and primary lead production remains stable, weak downstream demand is expected to limit upward price movements, leading to a potential shift towards a weak oscillation trend in lead prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, focusing on five provinces and three central enterprises, which may impact the chemical industry [21][22] - The pesticide industry is undergoing capacity optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with many non-compliant small enterprises exiting the market [24] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has affected the supply of chlorantraniliprole, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] - The organic pigment industry is consolidating, with a positive outlook for high-performance organic pigments due to increasing domestic production capabilities and environmental regulations [30][33] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The basic chemical industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Industry Dynamics - The central ecological environment protection inspections are expected to tighten regulations on the chemical industry, impacting production and compliance [21][22] - The pesticide sector is seeing a shift towards greener production methods, with a focus on reducing pesticide usage and promoting bio-pesticides [22][24] Pesticide Industry - The pesticide industry is experiencing a structural optimization, with a significant reduction in high-toxicity products and an increase in the market share of low-risk alternatives [24] - The recent explosion at Youdao Chemical has disrupted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which is the leading insecticide globally, potentially leading to price increases [25][29] Organic Pigment Industry - The organic pigment sector is witnessing consolidation, with a focus on high-performance products that meet stricter environmental standards [30][33] - Domestic companies are increasingly capable of producing high-performance organic pigments, which are expected to replace traditional pigments in the market [30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea market shows a weak trend with supply increasing and demand being scattered. The market will continue to face pressure without new positive drivers, but there may be opportunities for a rebound. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The soda ash market fluctuates widely, with supply slightly increasing and demand being stable but with limited support. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and there may be some support in the medium - term, while facing pressure in the long - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The glass market is firm but with a weakening night - session trend. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the market will continue to consolidate at the bottom in the short - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] Market Information Summary Urea - On May 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 7104, a decrease of 444 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5] - On May 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 206,800 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous working day and 355,000 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 89.92%, a 10.8 - percentage - point increase from 79.12% in the same period last year [5] - On May 26, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1860 yuan/ton (-20), Henan at 1850 yuan/ton (-30), etc. [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 26, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 147 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 4781; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2358 from the previous trading day [7] - On May 26, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions showed some adjustments, with prices in the southwest and northwest regions decreasing [7] - On May 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.59%. The total capacity was adjusted from 39.8 million tons to 41.1 million tons [7] - On May 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1234 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton, and the daily output of the industry was 157,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day [7] Chart Analysis Summary - The content provides multiple charts including those related to urea and soda ash, such as price trends, basis, contract spreads, and spot price trends, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [10][11][12] Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [25] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [25] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [25]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to consider long positions. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the price difference between New York and London copper is narrowing, which may indicate a loss of arbitrage profits [5] - Tungsten prices have continued to rise, increasing by 14.84% since early April due to reduced mining quotas and environmental inspections, leading to supply constraints [6] - The report suggests that rare earth export controls may be relaxed, and it recommends positioning for potential opportunities as the market remains cautious [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper decrease by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, and zinc by 1.27%. Precious metals experienced a decline in COMEX gold by 1.51% and silver by 1.99% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible copper inventory increased by 28,367 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, and zinc decreased by 3,175 tons [27]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to go long. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the demand side remains favorable due to the suspension of tariffs, particularly for aluminum, which is recommended for investment [5] - Tungsten prices continue to rise due to tightened production indicators and environmental inspections, with a 14.84% increase since early April. The report highlights strong demand from the manufacturing sector and potential applications in high-tech industries [6] - The rare earth market is experiencing price stabilization, with potential easing of export controls. The report advises investors to consider buying on dips as the market awaits developments regarding export regulations [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.5%, ranking 16th among sectors [13] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals prices: LME copper decreased by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, zinc by 1.27%, lead increased by 0.65%, and tin decreased by 0.03%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 1.51%, silver by 1.99%, while palladium rose by 1.15% and platinum fell by 2.37% [20][21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase of 28,367 tons for copper, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, zinc decreased by 3,175 tons, lead decreased by 1,697 tons, and nickel decreased by 3,740 tons [27]