1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is difficult to increase, and a supply gap is expected to accumulate in November. The coking coal production in Wuhai has been low since the second half of this year, and it is expected to remain difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, the supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Background - Wuhai is an important production area of high - strength coking coal. It has rich coal resources, with an annual coal production capacity of about 40 million tons. Most of the coal produced is coking coal, mainly fat coal, main coking coal, and 1/3 coking coal, which are high - quality skeleton coal types for coking, but have a high sulfur content. In recent years, the price difference with Shanxi coking coal has narrowed, and it has lost some cost - effectiveness. Since May this year, there have been reports of large - scale shutdowns of coking coal mines in Wuhai, and the production has decreased significantly in the second half of the year [3][7]. 2. Wuhai Open - pit Mines are Continuously Shut Down and Difficult to Resume Production - All open - pit mines in Wuhai are basically shut down, mainly due to coal mine capacity integration, high - intensity environmental inspections, self - inspection of over - production, and tax issues. Capacity integration is to solve the problem of cross - ownership of coal mines between Wuhai and neighboring areas. Environmental inspections have been high - intensity since June. The over - production of open - pit mines has been significantly suppressed, and many private mines lack the motivation to resume production. It is unlikely that coking coal mines in Wuhai will resume production in the short term, and the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is likely to decrease rather than increase in November [8][9][11]. 3. Coking Enterprises in Wuhai and Surrounding Areas are Marginally Profitable and Have Low In - Furnace Coal Inventory - Wuhai is the main coking supply area in Inner Mongolia, with a coking production capacity of over 30 million tons, accounting for more than half of the total capacity in the autonomous region. Due to the abnormal production of local coal mines, local coking plants have increased the purchase of Shanxi coal. Large - scale coking plants with long chemical product chains can make a profit of about 50 yuan/ton, while small and medium - sized coking plants are basically at the break - even point. The in - furnace coal inventory of coking plants is low, with raw coal available for 5 - 15 days, and they have no intention to replenish inventory for the time being. The overall coal - coking inventory in Wuhai is low, and it is expected to be even more in short supply in November [12]. 4. Mongolian Coal Imports are Affected by Political Disturbances in Mongolia - The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased from 1,200 trucks per day to 600 - 900 trucks per day. The political turmoil in Mongolia may affect the production and export of state - owned coal mines such as ETT. The large - scale electronic auction of Mongolian coal has squeezed the long - term contract resources, resulting in a decline in the import volume of some large - scale trading companies. The long - term contract sales volume of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase this year. The import proportion of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal has decreased significantly, and more Mongolian 1/3 coking coal and weathered coal will be imported in the future. The supply of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the resources of Mongolian No. 5 and No. 3 will be relatively tight [14][17]. 5. Research Summary - The continuous low production of coking coal in Wuhai since the second half of this year has a significant impact on the national coking coal market. The coal mine resource integration in Wuhai takes a long time, environmental inspections remain high - intensity, and there will be safety inspections in November. It is expected that the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia will be difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With the safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, a supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate in November. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18].

青海省核查工作组已到达海西州并开展工作 中新网西宁9月19日电 (记者 孙睿)青海省海西州政府新闻办公室于9月19日15时22分发布信息称，青海 省核查工作组已到达海西州并开展工作。 根据此前发布的情况通报，海西州、大柴旦行委调查组已赴现场开展核查工作，并调集化工专业人员进 行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 海西州政府新闻办公室发布的最新通报。网络截图 9月19日，《无视中央环保督察 青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危废》的视频与文稿在网络发布，引发广泛 关注。 ...

据海西发布微信公众号消息，2025年9月19日，《无视中央环保督察 青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危废》 视频、文稿在网络发布后，海西州委、州政府高度重视，已成立海西州、大柴旦行委调查组赴现场开展 核查工作，并调集化工专业人员进行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。 ...

青海省海西州政府新闻办公室9月19日发布情况通报。 《经济参考报》9月19日刊发报道，青海柴达木兴华锂盐有限公司被举报非法掩埋大量工业危险废物， 上级部门责令其在中央环保督察前"未督先改"，该企业却突击将大量已偷埋的危废挖出并易地填埋，涉 及数量上万吨，对生态环境造成二次伤害。 2025年9月19日，《无视中央环保督察 青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危废》视频、文稿在网络发布后，海 西州委、州政府高度重视，已成立海西州、大柴旦行委调查组赴现场开展核查工作，并调集化工专业人 员进行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government of Haixi Prefecture has taken immediate action in response to the release of a video and report regarding illegal hazardous waste disposal by a mining entity, indicating a strong commitment to environmental protection and regulatory compliance [1] Group 1 - The Haixi Prefecture government has established an investigation team to verify the claims made in the report about illegal hazardous waste disposal [1] - Environmental testing will be conducted by chemical professionals as part of the investigation process [1] - Future actions will be determined based on the results of the investigation and environmental tests, ensuring adherence to legal and regulatory frameworks [1]

人民财讯9月19日电，据海西发布，2025年9月19日，《无视中央环保督察青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危 废》视频、文稿在网络发布后，海西州委、州政府高度重视，已成立海西州、大柴旦行委调查组赴现场 开展核查工作，并调集化工专业人员进行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。 ...

（文章来源：央视新闻） 据"海西发布"消息，2025年9月19日，《无视中央环保督察青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危废》视频、文 稿在网络发布后，海西州委、州政府高度重视，已成立海西州、大柴旦行委调查组赴现场开展核查工 作，并调集化工专业人员进行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Environmental inspections have a phased impact on coking coal supply. With downstream restocking demand, coal mine shipments have improved, and prices of some coal types have stabilized. Some high - quality and scarce resources have rebounded slightly. The terminal hot metal production continues to rise, and demand support is relatively stable. Steel mills' profitability has improved, with some restocking behavior, but overall they purchase on - demand. It is expected that coking coal prices may be weak in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: As the price of coking coal stabilizes and rebounds, coke enterprises' cost pressure increases, and some have cut production due to narrowed profit margins. Market sentiment has improved, and downstream steel mills and traders' purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Coke shipments are relatively smooth, and inventory pressure has eased. With steel mills' production enthusiasm high, restocking demand has slightly increased, and speculative trading has increased. With cost support from coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 30 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are detailed, with some prices showing increases such as the main coking coal K4 at Rizhao Port increasing by 15, and the fat coal Elga at Caofeidian Port increasing by 15 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Production - related - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [35]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]. 3.4 Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower purchasing of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].