国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线偏强 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 全国浮法玻璃生产线共计265条，在产212条，日熔量共计151405吨，较上周减少2700吨，行业产能利用率82.14%。周内产线停产及 冷修4条，暂无点火及改产线。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 截至20251215，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.7天，环比-4.2%，同比-22.6%。目前来看，北部区域深加工订单环比继续下滑，中部及东 部整体变化不大，华南订单环比仍适度增加，西南区域内增降并存，订单均值环比小幅下滑。全国深加工样本企业散单仍集中在3-7天，部分 | | | 工程类订单排期缩短至15-20天。 | | | 截至12月31日，重点监测省份生产企业库存总量5378万重量箱，较上周四库存减少155万重量箱，降幅2.80%，库存天数28.66天，较上周四库 | | 库存 | ...

铅周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 LME 交仓拖累 铅价弱稳震荡 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价探底回升。宏观面看，市场小幅上 调降息预期，日本央行如期加息，宏观重要事件落地 后，市场谨慎情绪改善。 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 基本面看，LME 拟从 2026 年 7 月推行持仓限额新规， 持货商加速交仓，LME 库存大增，拖累内外铅价。原 料端，铅精矿加工费保持低位，终端电池消费淡季影 响电池报废量，废旧电瓶报价保持坚挺，成本端构成 支撑。冶炼端看，高丽亚铅计划在美国新设铅冶炼厂， 中长期增加海外供应，澳洲炼厂存罢工风险，持续关 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3230 元（-20），北京敬业 3140 元（-20），上海鞍钢热 卷 3270 元（-10），天津河钢热卷 3200 元（-20）。 【交易策略】 om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 今日黑色板块延续震荡偏弱走势，其中煤焦仍然领跌，钢材现货成交整体偏弱， 投机情绪较差，低价终端拿货为主。上周钢联数据公布，五大材有所减产，其中螺纹 减产速度更快，铁水产量延续下滑；钢材总库存加速去化，社库去化速度快于厂库； 受季节性影响，钢材表观需求加速去化，其中螺纹需求降幅大于热卷，冷轧需求受制 造业支撑仍然上涨。受近期环保督察加严叠影响，预计后续铁水产量继续下滑，但高 炉利润有所修复，主动减产驱动有限；近期受外煤供应大幅增加及主力换月影响，煤 焦大幅下跌，带动钢材跟跌。然而 12 月 ...

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]

综上所述，受环保督察力度加强、钢材消费淡季以及钢厂利润被大幅挤压等因素影响，钢厂高炉停产检 修数量将增加，高炉铁水产量大概率下降，铁矿石需求将下滑。同时，铁矿石进口不断增长，港口库存 持续累积，短期期货价格或偏弱震荡。（作者单位：中州期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 近期，北方地区低温与雨雪天气频发，房地产与基建施工显著受限。每年12月至次年2月为建筑钢材的 传统消费淡季，钢厂高炉进入停产检修期，高炉铁水产量将下降。今年高炉铁水产量长期处于近年高 位，铁矿石需求随之增加，铁矿石价格走势强于钢材导致钢厂利润被大幅挤压。截至本周一，螺纹钢钢 厂高炉利润亏损29元／吨，热卷高炉即期利润亏损69元／吨，部分钢厂基于自身利润情况会加大高炉减 产力度。受淡季订单减少、钢厂亏损、环保督察力度增强等因素影响，钢厂高炉停产检修数量将增加， 高炉铁水产量大概率进一步下降，进而导致铁矿石需求下降。 进口方面，1—10月我国累计进口铁矿石10.3亿吨，同比增加0.79%。今年上半年，受澳洲飓风等极端天 气影响，我国从主流矿山进口的铁矿石数量下降。非主流矿山方面，印度国内钢铁产能增长导致其对外 出口显著减少，1—10月我国进口印度铁矿石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is difficult to increase, and a supply gap is expected to accumulate in November. The coking coal production in Wuhai has been low since the second half of this year, and it is expected to remain difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, the supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Background - Wuhai is an important production area of high - strength coking coal. It has rich coal resources, with an annual coal production capacity of about 40 million tons. Most of the coal produced is coking coal, mainly fat coal, main coking coal, and 1/3 coking coal, which are high - quality skeleton coal types for coking, but have a high sulfur content. In recent years, the price difference with Shanxi coking coal has narrowed, and it has lost some cost - effectiveness. Since May this year, there have been reports of large - scale shutdowns of coking coal mines in Wuhai, and the production has decreased significantly in the second half of the year [3][7]. 2. Wuhai Open - pit Mines are Continuously Shut Down and Difficult to Resume Production - All open - pit mines in Wuhai are basically shut down, mainly due to coal mine capacity integration, high - intensity environmental inspections, self - inspection of over - production, and tax issues. Capacity integration is to solve the problem of cross - ownership of coal mines between Wuhai and neighboring areas. Environmental inspections have been high - intensity since June. The over - production of open - pit mines has been significantly suppressed, and many private mines lack the motivation to resume production. It is unlikely that coking coal mines in Wuhai will resume production in the short term, and the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is likely to decrease rather than increase in November [8][9][11]. 3. Coking Enterprises in Wuhai and Surrounding Areas are Marginally Profitable and Have Low In - Furnace Coal Inventory - Wuhai is the main coking supply area in Inner Mongolia, with a coking production capacity of over 30 million tons, accounting for more than half of the total capacity in the autonomous region. Due to the abnormal production of local coal mines, local coking plants have increased the purchase of Shanxi coal. Large - scale coking plants with long chemical product chains can make a profit of about 50 yuan/ton, while small and medium - sized coking plants are basically at the break - even point. The in - furnace coal inventory of coking plants is low, with raw coal available for 5 - 15 days, and they have no intention to replenish inventory for the time being. The overall coal - coking inventory in Wuhai is low, and it is expected to be even more in short supply in November [12]. 4. Mongolian Coal Imports are Affected by Political Disturbances in Mongolia - The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased from 1,200 trucks per day to 600 - 900 trucks per day. The political turmoil in Mongolia may affect the production and export of state - owned coal mines such as ETT. The large - scale electronic auction of Mongolian coal has squeezed the long - term contract resources, resulting in a decline in the import volume of some large - scale trading companies. The long - term contract sales volume of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase this year. The import proportion of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal has decreased significantly, and more Mongolian 1/3 coking coal and weathered coal will be imported in the future. The supply of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the resources of Mongolian No. 5 and No. 3 will be relatively tight [14][17]. 5. Research Summary - The continuous low production of coking coal in Wuhai since the second half of this year has a significant impact on the national coking coal market. The coal mine resource integration in Wuhai takes a long time, environmental inspections remain high - intensity, and there will be safety inspections in November. It is expected that the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia will be difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With the safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, a supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate in November. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18].

Group 1 - The inspection team from Qinghai Province has arrived in Haixi Prefecture and has begun its work [1][3] - A recent video and article titled "Ignoring Central Environmental Supervision, a 'Mineral Overlord' Illegally Buries Ten Thousand Tons of Hazardous Waste" has gained widespread attention [3] - The investigation team from Haixi Prefecture and Daban Town has been dispatched to the site for verification and has mobilized chemical professionals for environmental testing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the illegal disposal of hazardous waste by a mining entity in Qinghai, prompting immediate governmental investigation and environmental assessment [1] Group 1 - The incident involves the illegal dumping of 10,000 tons of hazardous waste by a "mining overlord" in Qinghai [1] - The local government has taken the matter seriously, forming an investigation team to verify the situation on-site [1] - Chemical professionals have been mobilized for environmental testing, with future actions to be determined based on the investigation and testing results [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Qinghai provincial government is taking serious action in response to allegations against the Qaidam Xinhua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. for illegally burying large amounts of hazardous waste, with investigations and environmental assessments underway [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The Qaidam Xinhua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. has been reported for illegally burying over ten thousand tons of industrial hazardous waste [1] - The company was ordered by higher authorities to rectify the situation before central environmental inspections, but it allegedly excavated and relocated the buried hazardous waste, causing secondary environmental damage [1] Group 2: Government Response - The Haixi Prefecture Committee and government have established an investigation team to verify the situation on-site and have mobilized chemical professionals for environmental testing [1] - Future actions will be based on the results of the investigation and testing, with legal and regulatory measures to be taken accordingly [1]