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美国国债首破30万亿美元大关,规模较2018年翻倍
美股研究社· 2025-12-05 10:52
以下文章来源于金十财经 ,作者金十小金 美国国债市场规模首次突破 30万亿美元 ——自2018年以来规模已翻倍有余,疫情时期的借贷激增正产生持续影响。 根据周四发布的数据,美国国库券、票据和债券的总量在11月增长了约0.7%,达到 30.2万亿美元 。 金十财经 . 每日8点,为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 2020年为应对疫情相关支出而激增的借贷,以及更高的借贷利率,共同推高了债务的付息成本,这在联邦赤字中所占份额正日益增长。 "巨大的挑战在于利息支出," 花旗集团利率策略师杰森·威廉姆斯(Jason Williams)指出,"即使关税收入能达到3000亿至4000亿美元, 那仍然低于我们为现有债务支付的利息。我们如同陷入流沙,仅靠关税无法脱身。我们下沉得慢了一些,但仍在不断下沉。" 尽管过去两年大部分时间里,美国长期国债拍卖规模保持稳定,且预计未来几个季度不会改变,但美国财政部官员上个月表示,他们正开始 "初步考虑未来增加拍卖规模"。 国债是美国国家债务的最大组成部分。11月国家债务总额达 38.4万亿美元 ,其中包括欠社会保障信托基金和储蓄债券持有人等的债务。目 ...
全球经济步入债务驱动时代
Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term global peace since World War II, leading to significant population growth and economic expansion, but also highlights the rising issues of wealth disparity, environmental pollution, and increasing national debts [1] - Global macro leverage ratios have been increasing, primarily driven by government borrowing, with government debt levels reaching historical highs post-2008 financial crisis [2][5] - The article notes that the macro leverage ratio in China has surpassed 300%, exceeding that of the US and developed countries, indicating a trend of increasing government debt [2][14] Group 2 - The structure of leverage in major economies shows that government sectors are increasing leverage while corporate and household sectors are stabilizing or reducing their leverage [5][10] - The article explains that only governments are willing to increase leverage counter-cyclically, as they can coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to create favorable borrowing conditions [7][10] - It highlights that during significant economic events, government deficits and debts tend to spike, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [16][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the challenges of tax reforms, noting that high-income countries tend to maintain stable tax revenues while facing pressures to reduce corporate tax rates [22][24] - It points out that the US has seen a decline in corporate tax burdens while increasing payroll taxes, potentially exacerbating wealth inequality [24][25] - Japan's tax structure has shifted towards consumption taxes, which disproportionately affect lower-income groups [27][28] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for increased government spending on social security due to aging populations, with the US seeing a significant rise in mandatory spending related to social welfare [31][34] - China's government has been increasing subsidies to social insurance funds significantly, indicating a growing fiscal burden due to demographic changes [37][38] - The article warns of diminishing returns on debt-driven growth, suggesting that the efficiency of using debt to stimulate economic growth is declining [49][51] Group 5 - The article suggests that China should focus on demand-side strategies to address overcapacity and low inflation, advocating for increased consumption from both government and households [51][58] - It discusses the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending, shifting from construction-focused investments to social welfare and public services [54][58] - Recommendations include enhancing transparency in public debt, reducing local government hidden debts, and improving the overall fiscal framework to support sustainable growth [59][60]