Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.1%. The STAR Market 50 rose by 0.7%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.2%, the ChiNext Index declined by 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.4% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors included non-bank financials (+0.6%), banks (-0.0%), food and beverage (-0.2%), home appliances (-0.3%), and real estate (-0.5%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.7%), defense and military (-2.2%), telecommunications (-2.1%), steel (-2.0%), and textiles and apparel (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 22,792 billion, with a net inflow of 1.03 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates a rise in funds and a transition phase, highlighting government leverage and the non-bankization of deposits. The market anticipates a favorable financial data outlook [5] - The credit growth is gradually slowing, reflecting a structural transformation in the economy, leading to a shift in credit demand and a positive substitution for direct financing. Future evaluations of financial support should focus more on the effectiveness of interest rate reductions, indicating a new characteristic of "government increasing leverage, enterprises stabilizing leverage, and residents appropriately deleveraging" [5] - A forward-looking perspective suggests paying attention to new characteristics in financial data and the migration of residents' deposits [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [3][10]. Core Views - Nanjing Bank is entering a new five-year planning cycle, with three major turning points driving value reassessment: 1) Market share enhancement cycle, 2) Interest rate decline cycle, and 3) Cost-to-income ratio improvement cycle [3][10]. - The bank's current PB valuation is 0.81x for 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.5%, making it a strong investment recommendation [3][10]. Market Share Enhancement Cycle - The management team, led by Chairman Xie Ning, is driving operational efficiency through comprehensive reforms and management optimization, following a significant expansion of branch networks [7][21]. - By the end of 2024, Nanjing Bank will have 290 branches, with a focus on increasing market share through a "three-year customer doubling action plan" [7][22]. - The favorable economic environment in Jiangsu province, with a credit growth rate close to 10% as of May, supports sustainable revenue growth for Nanjing Bank [7][25]. Interest Rate Decline Cycle - Nanjing Bank benefits from a favorable asset-liability structure in a low-interest-rate environment, with a high proportion of time deposits (78%) compared to peers [8][10]. - The bank has already passed the peak pressure on net interest margin (NIM) in 2023, and NIM is expected to stabilize as deposit costs decline [8][10]. Cost-to-Income Ratio Improvement Cycle - The cost-to-income ratio has risen to 30.5% from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to decrease to 28.1% in 2024 due to operational efficiencies and a three-year financial management plan [9][10]. - The bank's asset quality is stabilizing, with a focus on government-related loans, while retail loan risks are expected to improve in the coming years [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a leading position in ROE and performance growth among listed banks, with a dividend payout ratio above 30% [10]. - The completion of a 20 billion yuan convertible bond conversion enhances capital, supporting the bank's growth trajectory [10].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data indicates that the policy side continues to exert efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while also highlighting that the recovery speed of domestic demand, particularly in the household sector, still needs to be boosted [1][4][17]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1][4]. - The increase in social financing was significantly influenced by a low base from the previous year, where new social financing in April 2022 was -65.8 billion yuan [4]. - New credit in April was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support for credit in April, amounting to 834.1 billion yuan [8][10]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - From January to April, net financing of government bonds reached 4.85 trillion yuan, with April's net financing at 976.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 1 trillion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The Ministry of Finance initiated the issuance of special government bonds on April 24, with the issuance pace advanced by about one month compared to 2024, indicating ongoing support for stabilizing growth and domestic demand [4][17]. Group 3: Household Sector and Demand Recovery - In April, household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, indicating a need for improvement in the willingness of households to leverage [14]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -12%, reflecting a cooling in market activity and the need for recovery in household balance sheets [14][17]. Group 4: Monetary Supply - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [17]. - The decline in M1 year-on-year was slight at 1.5%, indicating a mixed trend in monetary supply [17].

Macro - The rebound in social financing growth is primarily driven by government bonds, with April's new social financing reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1] - New loans in April amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate note financing being the main support for credit in April, contributing 834.1 billion yuan [1] - The financial data for April reflects continued policy efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while internal demand, particularly from households, still requires further support [1][2] Retail - Substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and China reciprocating similarly [4] - The negotiations took place on May 10-11, with a joint statement released on May 12, indicating a temporary suspension of 24% of tariffs for 90 days while retaining 10% [4] Machinery - The Chinese gas turbine industry is expected to benefit from two main developments: improvements in domestic manufacturers' gas turbine technology and increased demand from data center construction, leading to a positive outlook for the global gas turbine market [7] - The domestic gas turbine market is seeing breakthroughs in self-developed technology, which is expected to enhance the localization rate of both complete machines and core components [7] - The global demand for gas turbines is anticipated to rise significantly due to new requirements from data centers, providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers with core component technology [7]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024[5] - The increase in social financing was partly due to a low base from the previous year, where April 2024 saw a decrease of 658 million yuan in new social financing[7] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, and 976.2 billion yuan in April alone, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Credit and Loan Insights - In April 2025, new credit amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support at 834.1 billion yuan[12] - The decline in credit performance in April is attributed to several factors, including local government debt replacement leading to loan repayments and external trade tensions affecting export financing activities[12] - Resident loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan in April, indicating a need for improved leverage willingness among households[16] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0% in April, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year[21] - The short-term policy stance has been clarified in recent political meetings, indicating a gradual approach to policy adjustments, with a focus on real estate and domestic demand trends[21] - External uncertainties are rising, which may impact future economic data and financial metrics, prompting potential additional policy measures if conditions weaken[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The financial data for March 2025 shows an increase in new credit and social financing, primarily driven by government bond issuance and a significant rise in short-term loans to enterprises [2][3] - The structure of financing demand is characterized by strong corporate credit and weak retail demand, indicating a reliance on government leverage to support social financing [11] - The growth in M2 remains stable at 7%, while M1 shows slight improvement, suggesting a potential correlation with local government debt replacement [4] Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing - In March, new credit reached 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, with social financing increasing by 5.89 trillion yuan, up 1.05 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] - Short-term loans to enterprises increased by 460 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing 84% to the overall increase in new credit [2] - The growth in new medium to long-term loans for residents was 531 billion yuan, influenced by a recovering real estate market [3] Government Bonds and Social Financing - The acceleration in government bond issuance significantly supported social financing, with new government bonds increasing by 1.03 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - By the end of March, the total social financing balance grew by 8.4% year-on-year, indicating that government leverage is a primary source of incremental demand in the economy [3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth remained steady at 7%, while M1 growth improved to 1.6%, potentially linked to local government debt replacement efforts [4] Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to continue attracting incremental capital due to its high weight in broad indices, stable dividend yields, and relatively low valuations [12] - The report suggests focusing on specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, major state-owned banks, and Chengdu Bank for potential investment opportunities [12]