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利率债周报:债市弱修复-20260327
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2026-03-27 09:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The inflation pressure pushed up by the supply side has a relatively limited impact on the bond market. The current main factor negative to the bond market is the front - loaded and intensified use of fiscal and quasi - fiscal tools. The bank system's liquidity may be relatively abundant, and the cross - quarter fund pressure is expected to be limited. The interest rate is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern. Short - term inflation changes should be observed. There may be opportunities for medium - and long - term bond varieties, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the term spread [4][20] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Funds Price - During the statistical period from March 20 to March 26, 2026, the central bank's net open - market fund injection exceeded 10 billion yuan, with an over - renewal of 5 billion yuan for MLF. The 3M and 6M repurchase operations had a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan, showing a net withdrawal of medium - term liquidity. The funds price remained stable, with DR001 fluctuating narrowly around 1.32%, and DR007 rising slightly due to the cross - quarter factor. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded slightly from a low level [1][11] 2. Primary Market - During the statistical period, 45 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total actual issuance of 818.7 billion yuan. The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased, while that of local bonds decreased. The issuance term continued to shorten, and the proportion of issuance scale over 10 years dropped below 40% [2][13] 3. Secondary Market - During the statistical period, the yields of most - term treasury bonds declined, and the impact of energy inflation on the bond market weakened. The yield of ultra - long - term bonds, which were most affected before, declined significantly, with the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds dropping from the peak of 2.39% to 2.35% [3][14] 4. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the inflation pressure pushed up by the supply side has a relatively limited impact on the bond market, and the adjustment range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is generally 10 - 20bp. Policy - wise, the front - loaded and intensified use of fiscal and quasi - fiscal tools is negative to the bond market. In terms of funds, the bank system's liquidity may be relatively abundant, and the cross - quarter fund pressure is expected to be limited. The interest rate is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern. Short - term inflation changes should be observed. There may be opportunities for medium - and long - term bond varieties, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the term spread [4][20]