1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak sentiment in the bond market persists, and it is waiting for the negative factors to materialize. The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. However, the current situation of the fundamentals and the capital market does not support a trend - like rebound in yields, so the bond market trend remains uncertain [6][70]. - Although the rumors of strict public - offering sales regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations, preventive adjustments help release potential risks in advance, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent unilateral trend of the bond market [6][70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors such as interest rate cuts, inflation, or real - estate policies [6][70][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In November, the bond market did not continue the previous month's recovery trend. Near the end of the month, rumors of the upcoming implementation of public - offering sales regulations resurfaced, and market sentiment quickly weakened. As of the mid - day on November 28, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased by 0.12%, 0.25%, 0.48%, and 1.68% respectively within the month. As of the close on November 27, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.6325%, 1.6068%, 1.6707%, and 1.7541% respectively [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The weakening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year and the improvement in inflation expectations continue to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend is still uncertain with few high - certainty opportunities [6]. - With the public - offering sales regulations still undecided, the market at the end of the month is more dominated by investor behavior and sentiment. The rumors of strict regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations. However, preventive adjustments help release potential risks, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [6]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Lightly bet on short - term rebounds, and a better window for going long may appear after the negative factors materialize [7]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [7]. - Options: No recommendations [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Logic Analysis 3.2.1 "Weak Reality" Continues, Focus on Potential Expectation Gaps - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally weakened. In terms of demand, in the investment sector, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 12.2%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was - 1.62%, a new low for the year. In the consumption sector, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% [10]. - In the foreign trade sector, in October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The decline in export growth was related to the high base in the same period last year and the intensification of Sino - US trade disputes. The weakening of import growth reflected the weak domestic demand [11]. - On the production side, although there was still resilience, the year - on - year growth rate also declined. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%, a new low for the year [11]. - The bond market has not fully priced in the weak fundamentals because it is not difficult to achieve the annual economic growth target, and the decline in indicators may be temporary. However, the continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators since the second half of the year may indicate that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair ability of the domestic economy is weak. Geopolitical factors also cannot be ignored [12][15]. 3.2.2 Prices Continue to Recover, Inflation Expectations Are Optimistic - Price indicators continued to recover. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI were both 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of core CPI both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of PPI were - 2.1% and 0.1% respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the month - on - month growth rate turned positive for the first time this year [21]. - The current recovery of CPI is driven by structural factors, and there may still be deflationary pressure. The high - frequency data shows that the upward momentum of industrial product prices is not strong, and price recovery may require demand - side policy support. Multiple factors may lead to the GDP deflator turning positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [22][35]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and an Inflection Point in M1 Appears - In October, financial data was mediocre. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. The balance of loans increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [36]. - The slowdown in credit expansion affected deposit creation. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, showing an inflection point [39][41]. - Weak financial data is favorable for the bond market, but the market has already priced in the weakness to a certain extent. The probability of the central bank increasing monetary policy due to weak financial data is not high. In November, the loan situation may improve, and the social financing scale may be supported, but the year - on - year growth rate of some financial indicators such as M1 may continue to slow down [49]. 3.2.4 The Central Bank's Support Remains, but It's Difficult for Fund Prices to Decline - In November, the market's capital supply and demand were generally balanced. As of November 27, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3740% and 1.4685% respectively, up 3.68bp and 1.06bp from the previous month. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining liquidity is unchanged, and the reverse - repurchase operation shows a peak - shaving and valley - filling characteristic, and the pace of "long - term money" injection is stable [55]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report of the central bank continues to have a relatively loose tone, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts within the year has further decreased. It is difficult for fund prices to decline, which restricts the decline of Treasury bond yields, especially short - term yields. The report may also imply that the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is around 2.25% [65][67]. 3.2.5 The Public - Offering New Regulations Are Uncertain, and Incremental Information Is Mostly Negative - In mid - to late November, some investors may have briefly speculated on the central bank's Treasury bond trading information in November, causing the TF and T contracts to perform relatively strongly. However, near the end of the month, rumors of public - offering sales regulations suppressed bond market sentiment. Incremental information such as potential mortgage interest subsidy policies, Sino - US leader phone calls, and rumors of the central bank's bond purchases falling short of expectations are relatively negative [68]. - If the mortgage interest subsidy policy is implemented next year with a large subsidy amount and wide coverage, it will be negative for the bond market in the long - term, but the short - term impact may be mainly on sentiment [68]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend remains uncertain. The public - offering sales regulations are uncertain, and short - term fluctuations are intensified, but there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [70][71]. - In terms of operations, after the sharp decline in Treasury bond futures at the end of the month, short - term unilateral trading can moderately bet on oversold rebounds. In the long - term, it is reasonable to allocate some long positions in Treasury bond futures to hedge against macro - expectation gaps. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Friday's marginal tightening of funds and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations do not indicate a marginal shift in the central bank's attitude. Since June, liquidity has been mainly characterized by easing, and the number of optimistic funding indicators has further increased in November. The central bank's easing is gradually being realized, and DR001 could move towards 7 - day OMO - 20BP. For certificates of deposit, continue with the current allocation and wait for the capital gain game space after the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [4][5]. - The marginal tightening of funds on Friday and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations are due to frictions in fund delivery, not a change in the central bank's attitude. With OMO returning to net investment, the probability of stable low - level funding prices is higher. The "shortening and lengthening" operation does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's policy is supportive, and it is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1. 1. Loose Policy is Being Realized, and Funding Prices are Becoming More Optimistic - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank adopted a "shortening and lengthening" approach. It carried out advance equal - volume roll - overs of repurchase agreements and continuously withdrew short - term liquidity while ensuring a proper level of overall liquidity. For example, on November 4, it announced bond - buying of 200 billion yuan in October, and on November 5, it advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement due on November 7 [14]. - **Fund Quantity**: The bank's net lending ability is closely linked to the central bank's operations. Institutions slightly increased leverage. After the fiscal support at the beginning of the month and the injection of liquidity through bond - buying, the net lending of state - owned and joint - stock banks continued to rise. Institutions increased leverage due to low funding prices, and the segmentation of non - bank funds remained at a low level [14]. - **Funding Prices**: The performance of funding price indicators is more optimistic. DR001 was mostly stable at 1.31%, Shibor 3M continued to decline, and DR007 started to approach the 7 - day OMO rate. Since October, the proportion of DR001 weighted around 1.31% has become more concentrated, Shibor 3M has been on a downward trend since the central bank announced "restarting bond - buying" on October 28, and DR007 has shown a trend of approaching the 7 - day OMO rate [16]. - **Reasons for Friday's Marginal Tightening of Funds**: The marginal tightening of funds on November 7 was due to the friction in fund delivery. Although the central bank advanced the roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement, the large - scale withdrawal of 7 - day liquidity caused short - term disturbances, but this does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude [18]. - **Analysis of the "Shortening and Lengthening" Operation**: Different from the period of financial de - leveraging from 2016 to 2017, the current central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operation is to inject medium - and long - term liquidity while reducing the price of relevant liquidity tools, which is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [20][21]. - **Certificate of Deposit Situation**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of small and medium - sized banks on certificates of deposit decreased significantly. Non - bank institutions such as money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries were more active in trading before the bond - buying announcement. In the future, the lower limit of certificates of deposit is constrained by the non - cut of policy interest rates, but it is difficult for 1 - year certificates of deposit to be significantly higher than 1.63%. The current level of certificates of deposit can continue to be allocated [23][24]. 3.2. 2. Weekly Tracking of Funds and Certificates of Deposit and Key Matters - **Central Bank**: This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. Next week, 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [32]. - **Government Bonds**: This week, the net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. There will be a 30 - year treasury bond issuance on November 14, and the issuance proportion of treasury bonds and local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above is about 31.03% and 73.00% respectively [32]. - **Bills**: After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. - **Fund Supply and Demand**: The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89]. 3.3. 3. Central Bank: Pay Attention to the Roll - Over of 6 - Month Repurchase Agreements - **This Week**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. The balance of reverse repurchases was 49.58 billion yuan as of November 7, still higher than the seasonal level [36]. - **Next Week**: 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [38]. 3.4. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment will Rise to 36.92 Billion Yuan - **This Week**: The net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan [42]. - **Next Week**: The net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. The net financing progress of treasury bonds is 86.1% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds is 86.4%, 88.3%, and 94.4% respectively (lower than the historical average) [42][43]. 3.5. 5. Bills: The Bill - Boosting Effect Weakens, and Bill Interest Rates Generally Increase - After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. 3.6. 6. Exchange Rate: The RMB Depreciates - This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. 3.7. 7. Market Fund Supply and Demand: The Net Lending of State - Owned Banks Continues to Recover - The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. 3.8. 8. Certificates of Deposit: The Net Financing of State - Owned Banks Turns Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Increases - **Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a decline of 4.21% this week, marking the lowest performance across all industries [1][14] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has seen a growth of 3.30%, ranking 26th among all industries [1] - The report highlights investment opportunities in China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell by 4.09%, underperforming the Wind All A index by 3.91 percentage points [13] - Among 42 listed banks, only Qilu Bank saw an increase in stock price this week [2][17] - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratios for different types of banks are as follows: state-owned banks at 0.70X, joint-stock banks at 0.54X, city commercial banks at 0.63X, and rural commercial banks at 0.59X [2][17] Funding Price Situation - The People's Bank of China conducted a significant reverse repo operation, injecting 18,268 billion yuan into the market [3][29] - The overnight SHIBOR rate increased to 1.46%, up by 9 basis points from last week [3][32] - The average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.64%, an increase of 1 basis point [6][40] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 23,465.1 billion yuan, with net financing of 8,512.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7,050.0 billion yuan from the previous week [4][45] - The issuance of financial bonds increased by 1,031.0 billion yuan, while the issuance of government bonds decreased [4][46] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.88%, while the 1-year yield fell to 1.39% [5][50] Interbank Market Review - The interbank repo overnight rate (R001) increased to 1.50%, up by 10 basis points [3][32] - The trading volume for the week was 31.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.74 trillion yuan from the previous week [3][32] Important News and Announcements - The report includes various charts and data visualizations that illustrate the performance of the banking sector and market conditions [12][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that identifying performance turning points is crucial for the market to emerge from the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically appearing 1-2 quarters ahead of performance turning points [4] - The report highlights that while the Plinger synchronous indicators are essential, they should be analyzed in conjunction with leading indicators to improve the accuracy of economic bottom assessments [4][5] - The report indicates that the key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [4][5] Group 2 - The report notes that in July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, remaining in the contraction zone, indicating a slight decline in macroeconomic conditions [6][7] - It mentions that the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in July, which is 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a slight recovery in new government bonds but a negative turn in new RMB loans [12][22] - The report states that M1 and M2 both showed year-on-year increases in July, with M1 at +5.6% and M2 at +8.8%, reflecting a rebound in excess liquidity [9][12] Group 3 - The report discusses that the decline in household medium and long-term loans is significant, with July showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.68%, compared to the previous value of -1.32% [15][16] - It highlights that the DR007 rate fell to an average of 1.52% in July, indicating a stabilization of liquidity prices, which is a necessary condition for the market to find a bottom [18][19] - The report concludes that the overall economic environment is characterized by a recovery in leading indicators, while synchronous and lagging indicators are showing slight declines, suggesting a complex market outlook [22][23]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.01%, with the latest price at 122.41 yuan as of July 30, 2025 [1] - The ETF has experienced active trading, with a turnover rate of 23.73% and a total transaction volume of 5.295 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF has reached a new high of 22.25 billion yuan, with the number of shares also hitting a record of 18.2 million [1] Group 2 - Over the past week, the 30-year government bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.445 billion yuan, totaling 4.525 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - The chief economist at Caitong Securities suggests that short-term funding prices will depend heavily on the central bank's reverse repurchase operations, with expectations of a stable market environment [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 25-30 years [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 50 - year treasury bond has performed well recently, with the spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds continuously narrowing. The current 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression and limited adjustment pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Performance of 50 - year Treasury Bonds - The 50 - year treasury bond has become an increasingly important trading variety in the low - coupon period. The spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased from 15.6bps on June 16th to 8.4bps on July 4th, a cumulative decrease of 7.2bps, and is now below the 2023 average. The current stock of 50 - year treasury bonds has reached 1.3 trillion, making it a significant investment variety [1][7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the 50 - 30 Year Treasury Bond Spread - **Fundamentals**: Fundamental indicators such as PMI, CPI, and PPI have no significant correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread in recent years, indicating that fundamentals have little explanatory power for this spread, which mainly reflects asset attribute differences [1][10]. - **Turnover Rate**: Since 2023, the turnover rate of ultra - long bonds has increased significantly. In June this year, the monthly turnover rate of 50 - year treasury bonds reached 7.5%, exceeding that of 30 - year treasury bonds. There is a certain correlation between the difference in turnover rates of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds and the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. As the liquidity of 50 - year treasury bonds improves, the liquidity premium decreases, leading to a trend compression of the spread [2][12]. - **Stock Market Risk Preference**: The risk preference reflected by the stock market has a certain positive correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. Historically, the spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds has a certain positive correlation with the Wind All - A Index, suggesting that 30 - year treasury bonds can better represent market risk preference. However, it remains to be seen whether this relationship will change as the liquidity of 50 - year treasury bonds improves [2][16]. - **Funding Price and Bond Supply**: There is a certain negative correlation between the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread and R007, indicating that the funding price has an impact on the curve slope, but the overall correlation is not significant. The net financing of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds and their difference have a weak correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread, but they have had a strong impact on the spread since last year [3][18]. 3.3 Quantitative Pricing Model - A quantitative pricing model was constructed using the monthly average of R007, the monthly net financing difference between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, the monthly average turnover rate difference between 30 - year and 50 - year treasury bonds, and the Wind All - A Index as explanatory variables to explain the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. The regression results show that the model has relatively strong explanatory power, and all four variables can strongly explain the ultra - long bond term spread [3][20]. 3.4 Current Situation and Outlook of the 50 - 30 Year Treasury Bond Spread - The June fitting value of the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread was 4.9bp, slightly lower than the current 8.4bps. Assuming that the turnover rates of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are at the average of the past two months, R007 is at 1.5%, the stock index remains at the current level, and net financing is calculated according to the bond issuance plan, the fitting value of the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread in the next few months will be around 7.4bps, close to the current spread. Therefore, the current 50 - 30 year spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression and limited adjustment risk in a context of continuous liquidity easing and active trading of 50 - year treasury bonds [4][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that identifying the performance turning point is crucial for the market to move out of the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance turning points by 1-2 quarters [2] - The report highlights the importance of combining leading indicators with coincident indicators for better economic bottom assessments, as relying solely on coincident indicators may lead to delayed confirmations [2] - The key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [2] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI significantly dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction for the first time since February, down from 50.5% [4] - M1 showed a slight year-on-year decline, while M2 increased, and the total social financing stock rose year-on-year, indicating a rebound in excess liquidity [7] - The total social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12.243 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a slight recovery in new government bonds but a negative year-on-year change in new RMB loans [9] Leading Indicators - The report notes that M2 leads M1, which in turn leads the stock market bottom, with M2 showing a year-on-year increase of 8% in April, up from 7% [7] - The social financing pulse increased to 26.16% in April, up from 25.41%, with new government bonds showing a slight recovery while new RMB loans turned negative [9] - The report indicates that the decline in household medium and long-term loans is closely related to the real estate sales cycle, with April showing a year-on-year decrease of 12.97% for household medium and long-term loans [12] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The report discusses that the narrowing of the decline in household and corporate loans is essential for market recovery, with the April average DR007 rate marginally dropping to 1.73% [15] - The central bank's recent decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates is aimed at stabilizing the market [15] - The report mentions that the recovery in social financing and M2, along with improved export performance, reflects a resilient Chinese economy despite the macroeconomic downturn [18]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a potential strengthening trend in credit bonds as leverage levels may gradually recover due to low funding costs [1][7]. Market Performance - On May 7, the bond market showed weakness, with government bond futures closing down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.62%, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.19% [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7075%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 1.89% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,955 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,353 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates for overnight and 7-day terms decreased by 4.5 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, indicating a continued easing of funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market may see increased volatility in May and June, with a higher probability of interest rates breaking lower [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates a gradual recovery in market leverage, with credit bonds likely to strengthen from the short end [7]. - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of the trend in secondary market repurchase rates, predicting a narrowing of the yield curve as funding rates approach 1.4% [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]