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资金面保持宽松,风险偏好升温,债市延续弱势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-07-23 07:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, with major repo rates continuing to decline; the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the foreign exchange market has been operating smoothly and showing strong resilience this year. From January to May, equity - type inbound direct investment had a net inflow of $31.1 billion, a 16% year - on - year increase, and inbound securities investment had a net inflow of about $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend in the second half of last year [3]. - As of the end of June, the investment and operation scale of the endowment insurance fund reached 2.55 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will continue to expand the entrusted investment scale of the basic endowment insurance fund and regulate its information reporting and disclosure systems [3]. - The central bank reported that at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a 7.1% year - on - year increase, with a 12.92 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year. The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions was 182.47 trillion yuan, an 8.6% year - on - year increase, with an 11.5 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year [4]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of bonds in the inter - bank market, accounting for about 2.5% of the total custody volume. In June, one new overseas institutional entity entered the inter - bank bond market, and there were 1,170 overseas institutional entities in total by the end of June [5]. - The cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and foreign capital holds nearly a quarter of them. Recently, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2 - billion - yuan 2 - year panda bonds in the inter - bank bond market [5]. 3.1.2 International News - Trump claimed that the U.S. and the Philippines reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines opening its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs. However, the Philippine government has not confirmed this [6]. - Due to the ruling coalition's defeat in the Senate election, concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a decline in the Japanese government bond market. Calls for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to resign within the Liberal Democratic Party grew louder. On July 22, the prices of 20 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds fell, and the yen depreciated against the dollar by about 0.2% [7]. - On July 22, WTI August crude oil futures fell 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures fell 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.81% to $3.258 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 342.5 - billion - yuan reverse repurchases and 120 - billion - yuan treasury cash time deposits maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 247.7 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, and major repo rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 4.65bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 1.60bp to 1.474% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On July 22, the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.50bp to 1.6920%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 2.20bp to 1.7775% [13]. - Regarding bond tenders, the 2 - year 25Guokai02 (Increment 6) had a winning yield of 1.4933%, the 5 - year 25Guokai08 (Increment 10) had a winning yield of 1.5673%, and the 10 - year 25Guokai15 (Increment 9) had a winning yield of 1.6939% [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On July 22, the trading prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell by more than 28%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell by more than 22%, "H0 Yangcheng 04" rose by more than 96%, "H0 Zhongjun 02" rose by more than 357%, and "H1 Bidi 01" rose by more than 400% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shimao Group's overseas debt restructuring taking effect on July 21, and several companies canceling bond issuances or facing rating changes [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On July 22, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.62%, 0.84%, and 0.61% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.48%, 0.38%, and 0.64% respectively [17]. - There were multiple convertible bond - related events, such as JCHX Mining's convertible bond issuance being approved, Lanfan Convertible Bond expecting to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some convertible bonds announcing early redemptions or non - redemptions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On July 22, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 2bp to 3.83%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.35%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 52bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 102bp [21][22]. - On July 22, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined. The 10 - year German government bond yield dropped 3bp to 2.59%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25]. - As of the close on July 22, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the bonds of Sunac China rose 4.1%, while those of Li Auto fell 1.8% [27].