Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly as it has entered the horizontal part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall - In October, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing (CCDC) was 176.77 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1312.36 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 49.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1042.742 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded significantly. The bond custody volume of CCDC was 127.07 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 269.618 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase decreased for two consecutive months [3]. 1. By Bond Type - Overall, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment in October. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.97 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 518.424 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.39 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 289.42 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan; corporate credit - type bonds had a monthly net increase of 146.878 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 655.00 billion yuan [3]. - At CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 2618.95 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 4529.24 billion yuan; credit bonds had a monthly net increase of - 1833.05 billion yuan [3]. 2. By Institution - Overall, broad - based funds were the main buyers of bonds. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.36 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 2544.08 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities firms was 3.30 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1347.83 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.74 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 10445.07 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.73 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 541.97 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, policy banks and broad - based funds increased their bond holdings, with monthly net increases of 634.60 billion yuan and 10179.59 billion yuan respectively. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, securities firms, and overseas institutions were negative, at - 112.55 billion yuan, - 27.45 billion yuan, - 109.77 billion yuan, and - 763.67 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, securities firms were the main buyers of bonds, with a monthly net increase of 1457.59 billion yuan. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of commercial banks, credit unions, and insurance companies were negative, at - 2351.82 billion yuan, - 255.68 billion yuan, and - 17.07 billion yuan respectively [5]. Leverage - In October, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90%, remaining flat month - on - month. By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks and securities firms increased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.61%, up 0.22 percentage points month - on - month; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.61%, down 0.35 percentage points month - on - month, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 142.36%, up 1.08 percentage points month - on - month [6].

Overall Situation - The total bond custody volume of ChinaClear and CCDC was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1506.006 billion yuan, showing a decline in the month - on - month increase. The custody volume of ChinaClear was 48.63 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 32.193 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase declined. The custody volume of CCDC was 125.91 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1538.199 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase improved [2][3] Bond Types - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment in the current month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 119.12 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1804.834 billion yuan. The custody volume of credit bonds was 33.40 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 27.925 billion yuan. The custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.38 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 355.61 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 233.8 billion yuan. In CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 826.058 billion yuan [4] Institutions - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.01 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1202.046 billion yuan. The custody volume of securities was 3.20 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 19.31 billion yuan. The custody volume of broad - based funds was 47.95 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 191.658 billion yuan. The custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.83 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 99.698 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, policy banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main source of increment [5] Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in August was 106.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.58%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 138.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points [6] Bond Market Outlook - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to continue to rise [7]