1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Economic recovery is accelerating due to the falsification of the under - expected economic recovery and the implementation of wide - credit and wide - fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026. If there are wide - monetary policies, it may be a chance for reduction. Attention should be paid to the inflation situation, especially whether the PPI month - on - month increase can remain positive. If inflation rises continuously, there is a possibility of tightened funds, which will lead to an upward yield of short - term bonds. Real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation - The total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) in January was 179.31 trillion yuan (previous value: 178.55 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 757.617 billion yuan (+302.571 billion yuan), and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 176.293 billion yuan (previous decrease: 204.504 billion yuan), with less decrease compared to December. The custody volume of CCDC increased by 933.910 billion yuan (previous increase: 507.075 billion yuan), and the month - on - month increase rebounded [3][4]. Bond Types - In Shanghai Clearing House, credit bonds contributed the main increment in the month, with a net monthly increase of 324.120 billion yuan; corporate credit - related bonds increased by 284.120 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds increased 74.000 billion yuan less month - on - month; inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 656.158 billion yuan. In CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 549.357 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds increased by 1004.506 billion yuan; credit bonds increased by - 70.595 billion yuan. Overall, interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 124.22 trillion yuan (previous value: 123.15 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 1078.506 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 34.14 trillion yuan (previous value: 33.88 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 264.385 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.03 trillion yuan (previous value: 19.69 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 656.158 billion yuan [5]. Institutions - In Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and securities firms increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 134.960 billion yuan, 4.056 billion yuan, and 12.500 billion yuan respectively. Policy banks, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net increases, which were - 27.540 billion yuan, - 233.480 billion yuan, and - 88.957 billion yuan respectively. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings, with a net monthly increase of 1021.526 billion yuan. Insurance companies, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net increases in custody volume, which were - 12.460 billion yuan, - 473.979 billion yuan, and - 18.804 billion yuan respectively. Overall, commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 95.55 trillion yuan (previous value: 94.40 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 1144.653 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities firms was 3.22 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.15 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of 69.946 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.16 trillion yuan (previous value: 48.86 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 707.458 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.35 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.46 trillion yuan), with a net monthly increase of - 107.761 billion yuan [6]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in January was 107.14% (unchanged from the previous month). By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks and securities firms increased, while that of non - bank institutions decreased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 105.00% (previous value: 104.61%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.73% (previous value: 110.17%), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 percentage points, among which the leverage ratio of securities firms was 143.11% (previous value: 140.07%), with a month - on - month increase of 3.04 percentage points [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly as it has entered the horizontal part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall - In October, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing (CCDC) was 176.77 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1312.36 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 49.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1042.742 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded significantly. The bond custody volume of CCDC was 127.07 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 269.618 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase decreased for two consecutive months [3]. 1. By Bond Type - Overall, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment in October. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.97 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 518.424 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.39 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 289.42 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan; corporate credit - type bonds had a monthly net increase of 146.878 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 655.00 billion yuan [3]. - At CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 2618.95 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 4529.24 billion yuan; credit bonds had a monthly net increase of - 1833.05 billion yuan [3]. 2. By Institution - Overall, broad - based funds were the main buyers of bonds. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.36 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 2544.08 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities firms was 3.30 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1347.83 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.74 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 10445.07 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.73 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 541.97 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, policy banks and broad - based funds increased their bond holdings, with monthly net increases of 634.60 billion yuan and 10179.59 billion yuan respectively. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, securities firms, and overseas institutions were negative, at - 112.55 billion yuan, - 27.45 billion yuan, - 109.77 billion yuan, and - 763.67 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, securities firms were the main buyers of bonds, with a monthly net increase of 1457.59 billion yuan. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of commercial banks, credit unions, and insurance companies were negative, at - 2351.82 billion yuan, - 255.68 billion yuan, and - 17.07 billion yuan respectively [5]. Leverage - In October, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90%, remaining flat month - on - month. By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks and securities firms increased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.61%, up 0.22 percentage points month - on - month; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.61%, down 0.35 percentage points month - on - month, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 142.36%, up 1.08 percentage points month - on - month [6].

Overall Situation - The total bond custody volume of ChinaClear and CCDC was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1506.006 billion yuan, showing a decline in the month - on - month increase. The custody volume of ChinaClear was 48.63 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 32.193 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase declined. The custody volume of CCDC was 125.91 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1538.199 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase improved [2][3] Bond Types - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment in the current month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 119.12 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1804.834 billion yuan. The custody volume of credit bonds was 33.40 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 27.925 billion yuan. The custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.38 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 355.61 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 233.8 billion yuan. In CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 826.058 billion yuan [4] Institutions - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.01 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1202.046 billion yuan. The custody volume of securities was 3.20 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 19.31 billion yuan. The custody volume of broad - based funds was 47.95 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 191.658 billion yuan. The custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.83 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 99.698 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, policy banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main source of increment [5] Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in August was 106.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.58%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 138.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points [6] Bond Market Outlook - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to continue to rise [7]