事件点评 2025 年 11 月 18 日 上清所托管量环比高增，债市整体杠杆率持平 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月债市托管数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：10 月末，上清所债券托管量 49.70 万亿元（前值为 48.66 万亿元，下同）， 月净增 10427.42 亿元（324.41 亿元）；中债登债券托管量 127.07 万亿元（126.80 万亿元），月净增 2696.18 亿元（8887.16 亿元）。上清所、中债登合计债券托管 量 176.77 万亿元（175.46 万亿元），月净增 13123.60 亿元（9211.57 亿元）。 上清所，同业存单贡献当月主要增量，月净增 7214.10 亿元；公司信用类债券月 净增 1468.78 亿元；利率债月净增 655.00 亿元。 中债登，地方政府债贡献当月主要增量，月净增 2618.95 亿元；利率债月净增 4529.24 亿元；信用债月净增-1833.05 ...

Overall Situation - The total bond custody volume of ChinaClear and CCDC was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1506.006 billion yuan, showing a decline in the month - on - month increase. The custody volume of ChinaClear was 48.63 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 32.193 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase declined. The custody volume of CCDC was 125.91 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1538.199 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase improved [2][3] Bond Types - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment in the current month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 119.12 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1804.834 billion yuan. The custody volume of credit bonds was 33.40 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 27.925 billion yuan. The custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.38 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 355.61 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 233.8 billion yuan. In CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 826.058 billion yuan [4] Institutions - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.01 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1202.046 billion yuan. The custody volume of securities was 3.20 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 19.31 billion yuan. The custody volume of broad - based funds was 47.95 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 191.658 billion yuan. The custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.83 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 99.698 billion yuan. In ChinaClear, policy banks and insurance institutions increased their bond holdings. In CCDC, commercial banks were the main source of increment [5] Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market in August was 106.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.58%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 138.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points [6] Bond Market Outlook - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to continue to rise [7]