周三欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率持平，报2.707%，日内交投于2.722%-2.706%区间。两年期德债 收益率涨0.1个基点，报2.047%，日内交投于2.045%-2.053%区间；30年期德债收益率跌0.3个基点，报 3.375%。2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.019个基点，报65.867个基点。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.76% at 49,174.5 points, the S&P 500 up 0.77% at 6,890.07 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.04% at 22,863.68 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 8%, Intel over 5%, and Tesla, Netflix, and Apple each rising over 2% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Global Data up over 6%, Century Internet over 6%, and XPeng Motors over 6% [1] - Declines were noted in companies like Hesai Technology, which fell over 2%, and Zai Lab, which dropped over 1% [1] European Market - European indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.02% at 24,986.25 points, France's CAC40 up 0.26% at 8,519.21 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04% at 10,680.59 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down 1.25% at $5,160.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.57% at $87.07 per ounce [1] - Crude oil prices fell slightly, with the main U.S. oil contract down 0.35% at $66.08 per barrel and Brent oil down 0.06% at $71.07 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.90, while the offshore RMB against the dollar increased by 95 basis points to 6.8798 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 2.73 basis points at 3.461% and the 10-year yield down 0.38 basis points at 4.031% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points at 4.304% and Germany's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 2.705% [1]

消息面上，据新华社报道，18日上午，日本高市早苗内阁全体辞职。 现货白银 XAGUSD ▼ 02/18 09:29:40 交易中 〔]:[休市提醒]中国、韩国、越南市场因春节休市。 图表 快讯 头条 盯盘神器 帖子 资金流向 枢轴 73.139 72.309 昨收 最高 73.089+ 72.309 最低 72.224 今开 +1.08% +0.779 73.349 73.089 买入 型出 分时 1分 5分 1小时 日K 30分 > 田 ○ MA BOLL 神奇九转 | ▽ 聪明钱 银弹 假突破雷达 筹矿 73.118 73.118 -- 73.089 MT 72.806 72.495 72.275 72.183 → 08:17 08:43 09:09 → 记者 | 金珊 编辑 | 江佩霞 2月18日，日经225指数高开，涨幅一度扩大超1%，截至北京时间9:30左右，报57098点。 日债收益率全面下跌，日本10年期国债收益率跌至2.111%。30年期日本国债收益率跌至3.378%。 当地时间18日下午（北京时间18日中午），日本国会众参两院将分别举行首相指名选举。新当选的首相当天将组建新内阁。日本宪法规定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in five years, with wage growth slowing, leading to a decline in the pound and UK government bond yields [1][3]. Employment Data - In January 2026, the number of employees in the UK decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 30.3 million, which is a reduction of 134,000 from January 2025 and a decrease of 11,000 from the previous month [2][5]. - The unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2% compared to the previous month [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the pound fell by 0.5% against the dollar, closing at 1 pound to 1.356 dollars, and dropped 0.2% against the euro [2][5]. - The yield on UK government bonds decreased across the board, with the 10-year bond yield falling nearly 4 basis points to 4.367% and the 30-year bond yield also down by 4 basis points to 5.168% [3][6]. Stock Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index in London rose by 0.4% during afternoon trading [2][5]. - The broader European market showed mixed results, with the Stoxx 600 index hovering around the flat line, while the Italian FTSE MIB index increased by 0.5% and the German DAX index rose by 0.1% [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, keeping liquidity abundant. The yields of interest - rate bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the issuance rates of credit bonds decreased. The total issuance of interest - rate and credit bonds increased steadily year - on - year. Credit risks were converging. Looking forward to 2026, bond market yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, credit spreads may show structural differentiation, the bond market issuance scale is expected to grow steadily, and bond market credit risks will continue to converge with the default rate possibly at a historical low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Overall Situation - In 2025, China's bond market issued a total of 88.52 trillion yuan of various bonds, a year - on - year increase of 12.35%. Excluding inter - bank certificates of deposit, the total issuance of various bonds was 54.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.40%. By the end of 2025, the stock of various bonds in China reached 196.17 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.45% compared with the end of 2024 [4]. 3.1.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Yield Trend**: The yield of China's treasury bonds showed an overall fluctuating upward trend in 2025. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated in five different stages throughout the year, affected by factors such as economic data, policy expectations, and market sentiment [5]. - **Issuance Scale**: The bond market issued 32.39 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.63%. The issuance scale of each type of bond increased. By the end of 2025, the stock of interest - rate bond varieties in China's bond market was 123.51 trillion yuan, a growth of 14.75% compared with the previous year - end [8][9]. 3.1.2 Credit Bonds - **Issuance Interest Rate**: In 2025, the issuance rates of major credit bonds showed a downward trend. Taking the credit bonds issued by AAA - rated entities as an example, the average issuance rates of major bond types with various maturities decreased [10]. - **Issuance Volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds reached 22.06 trillion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 8.14%. By the end of 2025, the stock of credit bonds was 51.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. Different sub - categories of credit bonds had different issuance trends [13]. - **Non - financial Enterprise Bonds**: In 2025, non - financial enterprises issued 15,790 issues of bonds with a total issuance scale of 13.94 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 2.87% and 1.70% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - financial enterprise bonds was 31.29 trillion yuan, a growth of 10.00% compared with the previous year - end [14]. - **Non - policy Financial Bonds**: Financial institutions issued 1,488 issues of non - policy financial bonds in 2025, with a total issuance scale of 5.66 trillion yuan. The issuance period and scale increased by 34.54% and 24.74% year - on - year respectively. By the end of 2025, the stock of non - policy financial bonds was 15.66 trillion yuan, a growth of 11.35% compared with the previous year - end [18]. - **Asset - backed Securities**: In 2025, the issuance period, number, and scale of asset - backed securities all increased by about 15%. By the end of 2025, the stock of asset - backed securities was 3.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.16% compared with the previous year - end [22]. - **Other Credit Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance period and scale of other credit bonds increased year - on - year. By the end of 2025, the stock of other credit bonds was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.81% compared with the previous year - end [24]. 3.2 Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance of Urban Investment Bonds and Industrial Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, while the issuance of industrial bonds increased. The net financing of urban investment bonds decreased, and that of industrial bonds increased [27]. - **Rating and Credit - grade Distribution**: The proportion of bonds without debt ratings continued to increase, and the proportion of bonds issued by AAA - rated entities continued to rise. The credit grades of non - financial enterprise credit bond issuers were mainly distributed between AAA and AA [29][34]. - **Enterprise Nature of Issuers**: In 2025, state - owned enterprises were still the main issuers of non - financial enterprise bonds. The proportion of bonds issued by central state - owned enterprises and private enterprises increased, while that of local state - owned enterprises decreased [36]. - **Regional and Industry Differentiation**: The regions and industries involved in non - financial enterprise bond issuers remained differentiated. In terms of regions, the issuance scale of non - financial enterprise bonds in some regions increased, while in some others it decreased. In terms of industries, the issuance scale of some industries increased, while in some others it decreased [41]. - **Innovative Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of innovative bonds maintained a good momentum. The issuance period and scale of science and technology innovation bonds increased by about 80%, and the issuance of other innovative bonds also increased significantly [43]. - **Credit Risk Convergence**: In 2025, the number of new default issuers, the number of defaulted bonds, and the default amount in China's bond market all decreased year - on - year. The number of new extended - maturity issuers decreased, but the number of extended - maturity bonds and the extended - maturity scale increased. Overall, the bond market credit risk showed a converging trend [47]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook - **Yield and Credit Spread**: Interest - rate bond yields are expected to remain volatile at low levels, with limited upside and downside space. Credit bond yields are expected to follow interest - rate bonds and maintain a low - level volatile trend. Credit spreads are expected to remain low, but market disturbances may increase [48][49]. - **Issuance Scale**: In 2026, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to increase due to a more active fiscal policy. The issuance scale of financial institution bonds in the credit bond market is expected to grow steadily, while the issuance of urban investment bonds may shrink slightly, and the issuance of industrial bonds is expected to grow continuously [50]. - **Credit Risk**: In 2026, the bond market credit risk is expected to continue to converge, and the default rate may be at a historical low. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real estate enterprise bonds, financial bonds, and convertible bonds, have different credit risk characteristics and need to be monitored [51][52].

周四欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌1.4个基点，报2.779%，日内交投于2.805%-2.775%区间。两年 期德债收益率跌0.6个基点，报2.060%，日内交投于2.077%-2.054%区间，北京时间00:00前后显著下 挫；30年期德债收益率跌0.7个基点，报3.449%。2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.735个基点，报+71.658个 基点。 ...

她的赌注是，持续的通胀和经济名义增长的加快，将填补未来几年国家财政的任何漏洞。但投资者希望 看到具体的细节。 Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan表示："在公共财政已经极度紧张的情况下，进一步扩大支出和增加债 务发行的威胁将增加风险溢价，并可能引发债券的新一轮抛售和收益率飙升。" 1月份的动荡见证了投资者疯狂抛售债券，导致最长期限的日本国债收益率被推高至4%以上，随着影响 波及全球金融市场，美国财政部长贝森特也发表了令人担忧的评论。 高市早苗本周坚持表示，政府不会通过出售新债券来填补支出缺口，而是称她的政府将审查补贴、特别 税收措施和非税收收入，以寻找"可持续"的资金来源。 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券的首席债券策略师Naomi Muguruma表示："人们对此类措施将如何获得资金， 以及最终是否会诉诸发行赤字弥补债券的担忧正在升温。一个根本性的担忧是减税持续时间超过两年的 风险。" 历史表明这些担忧是有道理的。消费税的引入花费了大约十年的时间，随后的每次上调都导致经济按年 率计算萎缩高达11%。最后两次上调被推迟，表明了提高税收在政治上的困难，这加剧了人们对暂时降 低税收后能否轻松恢复的怀疑。 为政府的 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 12 日 1 月理财规模季节性下降 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2026 年 1 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1 月理财规模季节性下降。我们测算，截至 2026 年 1 月末，理财规模合计 32.5 万 亿元，较上年末下降 0.8 万亿元。2026 年春节较晚，理财规模月度增长节奏可能与 春节较晚的 2021 年类似。2021 年 1 月理财规模下降了 0.66 万亿元。1 月份银行的 工作重心往往在存贷款开门红上，理财经理可能会引导客户阶段性赎回理财来冲存 款规模；此外，今年 1 月份理财收益"打榜"乱象规范可能也对理财增长产生了暂 时性的影响。我们预计 2 月理财规模将回升 1 万亿左右，存款利率较低及春节前不 少企业发放年终奖有望带动 2 月理财规模明显回升。2026 年理财规模有望增长 3 万 亿左右。 1 月理财公司固收理财平均当月年化收益率回升。2022 年初以来，理财公 ...

韩国央行金融市场局局长Choi Yong-hoon表示，近期债券收益率大幅攀升，在政策利率维持在2.5%的情 况下，3年期韩国国债收益率已升破3.2%。根据政策利率持稳期间市场利率的历史平均水平来看，目前 的收益率理应处于2%以上的较高区间。他认为，尽管近期收益率上涨反映了包括市场预期和股市表现 强劲在内的多种因素，但由于当前的经济和通胀情况并未显著偏离通胀目标或潜在增长率，目前的收益 率水平显得"有些过度"。 ...

周三欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率跌3.0个基点，报4.476%，北京时间21:30发布美国非农就业报告 时拉升、迅速刷新日高至4.519%。两年期英债收益率跌1.9个基点，报3.624%。30年期英债收益率跌4.1 个基点，50年期英债收益率跌3.8个基点。2/10年期英债收益率利差跌1.171个基点，报+85.067个基点。 ...