Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

Report Information - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Bond Market Custody Data Review [2] - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - Stock - bond allocation continues to shift: Bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Bond Custody Volume - The total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased month - on - month. In November, it was 178.25 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 147.9847 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment rebounded [4] - The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 50.09 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 38.4053 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment decreased [4] - The bond custody volume of CCDC was 128.16 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 109.5794 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increment increased [4] Bond Types - Interest rate bonds contributed the main increment this month. The custody volume of interest rate bonds was 122.45 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 147.7602 billion yuan [5] - Credit bonds in Shanghai Clearing House contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 65.8673 billion yuan; corporate credit bonds had a net monthly increase of 29.2743 billion yuan; interest rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 7.3 billion yuan; negotiable certificates of deposit decreased by 38.5737 billion yuan month - on - month [5] - At CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 64.5687 billion yuan; interest rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 140.4602 billion yuan; credit bonds had a net monthly decrease of 30.8808 billion yuan [5] - The custody volume of credit bonds was 33.72 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 33.745 billion yuan; the custody volume of negotiable certificates of deposit was 20.31 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 38.5737 billion yuan [5] Institutions - Commercial banks were the main buyers of bonds. The custody volume of commercial banks was 94.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 78.4824 billion yuan [6] - At Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and broad - based funds increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 17.7653 billion yuan, 2.9458 billion yuan, and 34.9638 billion yuan respectively; policy banks, securities firms, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases, at - 7.456 billion yuan, - 1.2799 billion yuan, and - 10.0046 billion yuan respectively [6] - At CCDC, commercial banks were the main buyers of bonds, with a net monthly increase of 60.9657 billion yuan; the custody volumes of insurance companies, securities firms, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases, at - 0.0937 billion yuan, - 12.9269 billion yuan, - 12.807 billion yuan, and - 1.6703 billion yuan respectively [6] - The custody volume of securities firms was 3.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 14.2068 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.96 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 22.1568 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.61 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 11.6749 billion yuan [6] Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market decreased. In November, it was 106.61% (compared with 106.90% previously), a month - on - month decrease [7] - The leverage ratios of commercial banks, non - bank institutions, and securities firms all decreased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.42% (compared with 104.61% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.19% (compared with 109.61% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points; among them, the leverage ratio of securities firms was 140.99% (compared with 142.36% previously), a month - on - month decrease of 1.37 percentage points [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the overall bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long end, and the decline in the willingness of trading desks to increase interest - rate bonds may be the core factor for the market adjustment. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds in November may be more affected by the sentiment of trading desks, with relatively limited relation to issues such as bank book interest - rate risks. [3][12] - The bond leverage ratio decreased slightly in November, with the securities company's leverage ratio rising but the product account leverage ratio falling. [4][53] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Interest - rate Bond Custody Increased Significantly but Certificates of Deposit Had Net Repayment, and the Bond Custody Scale Rose Slightly - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 147.98 billion yuan month - on - month, an increase of 16.75 billion yuan compared with October. Interest - rate bond custody increments increased by nearly one trillion yuan compared with the previous month, and the custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased significantly. Due to the increase in the issuance scale of medium - term notes, the credit - bond custody increment also increased, and the custody scale of commercial bank bonds turned from a decline to an increase. However, the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from an increase of 721.4 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 385.7 billion yuan, significantly dragging down the overall bond custody scale. [3][10] 3.2 The Decline in the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Interest - rate Bonds May Be the Core Factor for the Market Adjustment in November 3.2.1 Generalized Funds - In November, the bond custody scale of generalized funds increased by 22.16 billion yuan month - on - month, a decrease of 82.29 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They mainly changed from increasing 77.12 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit last month to reducing 950 million yuan. In addition, they increased their holdings of financial bonds, local bonds, and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but also increased their reduction of commercial bank bonds, policy - financial bonds, and enterprise bonds, and changed to reducing treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. [18] 3.2.2 Securities Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of securities companies changed from an increase of 13.48 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 14.21 billion yuan, mainly due to the reduction of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream, a decrease in the increase of local bonds, and an increase in the reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds. However, they increased their holdings of medium - term notes and credit - asset - backed securities and increased their holdings of short - term commercial paper. [26] 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of insurance companies changed from a decrease of 450 million yuan last month to an increase of 2.85 billion yuan. They slightly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased their holdings of financial bonds and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but the increase in local bonds decreased, and the reduction of commercial bank bonds increased. [30] 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In November, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 11.67 billion yuan month - on - month, and the decline was 6.26 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They mainly changed to reducing treasury bonds, increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit, but slightly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds. [32] 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In November, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 57.46 billion yuan month - on - month, and the increase was 21.9 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds, changed to increasing policy - financial bonds, but the increase in local bonds decreased and changed to reducing inter - bank certificates of deposit. The structural changes in the custody data may be due to the fact that the proportion of treasury bonds in the repurchase of reverse repurchase targets increased. [37] 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In November, the bond custody scale of commercial banks changed from a decrease of 25.14 billion yuan last month to an increase of 78.3 billion yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, increased their holdings of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes, but increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and changed to reducing short - term commercial paper and credit - asset - backed securities. If the impact of outright repurchase is considered, the banks' increase in holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds further increased. [44] 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In November, the bond custody scale of credit unions changed from a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan last month to an increase of 980 million yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, decreased their reduction of policy - financial bonds, but decreased their increase of inter - bank certificates of deposit. [46] 3.3 The Bond Leverage Ratio Decreased Slightly in November, with the Securities Company's Leverage Ratio Rising but the Product Account Leverage Ratio Falling - Affected by the increase in the bond custody scale and the decrease in the scale of institutional funds borrowed, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 107.2% in November, still at a relatively low level. [4][53] - Among them, the commercial bank's leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 103.3%, and the non - bank institution's leverage ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 117.0%. In non - bank institutions, the securities company's leverage ratio increased by 11.5 percentage points month - on - month to 231.4%, reaching a new high since 2020, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 113.7%, still at a relatively low level in the past three years. [4][53]

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody increased significantly, reaching 176.77 trillion yuan by the end of October 2025, with a net increase of 1.31 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - The structure of bond custody shows that interest rate bonds and credit bonds continued to increase, while financial bonds decreased. The total custody of interest rate bonds was 122.49 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.29% of the total [4] - The custody of interbank certificates of deposit saw its first net increase in the second half of the year, amounting to 20.70 trillion yuan, which is 11.67% of the total [4] Group 2 - The bond market's configuration showed a divergence in total custody among institutions, with trading accounts significantly increasing while foreign institutions continued to reduce holdings [5] - Policy banks and non-legal entities increased their holdings in interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit, while commercial banks reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with securities companies significantly increasing their holdings, while credit cooperatives and insurance institutions reduced theirs [5] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements at 11.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 781.5 billion yuan [7] - The leverage ratio stood at 106.90%, indicating a slight year-on-year decline of 0.75 percentage points [7]

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration of all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, which is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, up 0.12 years week-on-week, at the 84.50th percentile, while the standard deviation increased to 2.72, at the 97.10th percentile [1][9][18] Group 2 - The turnover rate of interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate of credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate of 10-year and above government bonds decreased to 1.92%, at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The turnover rate of 5-7 year medium-term notes increased to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile [1][9][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have high turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][9][18] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][9][18] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the leverage ratio for broad-based funds increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][9][18] Group 4 - The total scale of wealth management products in the market increased by 30.25 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value of wealth management products remained stable at 0.73% [1][9][18] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced slight changes [1][9][18] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for those with a duration of one month or less and one to three years, while others remained stable or increased [1][9][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month, ending the two - month trend of less growth. The rebound of inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale was the main driving force, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds declined significantly [3][6]. - The bond market performance eased in October. Long - term interest rates showed a recovery trend, and dropped significantly after the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading on the 27th. Trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased significantly, while the allocation willingness of allocation - type institutions declined [3][10]. - Due to the increase in institutions' borrowed funds, the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly by 0.1 pct to 107.4% in October, remaining at a relatively low level. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased, but the absolute level was still not high [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - month Bond Custody Increment Rebounds, and Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Net Financing is the Main Support - The total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month in October, with the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale turning from decline to increase for the first time since June this year. The net financing scale of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly [3][6]. - For interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds all decreased compared with the previous month. For credit bonds, the custody increment of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while that of enterprise bonds and PPN continued to decline [6]. The Central Bank Restarts Bond Buying, Market Sentiment Improves, and the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Bond Holdings is Significantly Restored - In October, the bond market performance eased. After the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading, long - term interest rates dropped significantly. The trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased, while the allocation willingness of commercial banks and insurance companies declined [10]. - **General Funds**: The bond custody scale increased by 104.45 billion yuan month - on - month, turning to increase holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, medium - term notes, and short - term commercial paper, and reducing the scale of selling financial bonds [15]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume increased by 134.8 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a new high since July 2024, mainly due to a large increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [17][19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume decreased by 450 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [22]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 5.42 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increased scale of selling domestic bonds, but turning to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduce holdings of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume increased by 35.56 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increase in holdings of treasury bonds and certificates of deposit, and a decrease in holdings of policy - bank bonds [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody scale decreased by 25.14 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly due to a significant decrease in the scale of increasing holdings of treasury bonds and an increase in the scale of reducing holdings of local bonds [30]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 206 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [34]. In October, the Non - bank Leverage Ratio Increased Beyond Seasonality, but the Absolute Level was Still Not High - In October, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 pct to 107.4% month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level. The non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased by 0.3 pct to 117.2%, but the absolute level was still not high in the past three - year dimension [37]. - Among them, the securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 3.3 pct to 219.9%, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.3 pct to 114.0% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly as it has entered the horizontal part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall - In October, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing (CCDC) was 176.77 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1312.36 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded. The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 49.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1042.742 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase rebounded significantly. The bond custody volume of CCDC was 127.07 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 269.618 billion yuan, and the month - on - month increase decreased for two consecutive months [3]. 1. By Bond Type - Overall, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment in October. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.97 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 518.424 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.39 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 289.42 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 20.70 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 721.41 billion yuan; corporate credit - type bonds had a monthly net increase of 146.878 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 655.00 billion yuan [3]. - At CCDC, local government bonds contributed the main increment, with a monthly net increase of 2618.95 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a monthly net increase of 4529.24 billion yuan; credit bonds had a monthly net increase of - 1833.05 billion yuan [3]. 2. By Institution - Overall, broad - based funds were the main buyers of bonds. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.36 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 2544.08 billion yuan; the custody volume of securities firms was 3.30 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 1347.83 billion yuan; the custody volume of broad - based funds was 48.74 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of 10445.07 billion yuan; the custody volume of overseas institutions was 3.73 trillion yuan, with a monthly net increase of - 541.97 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, policy banks and broad - based funds increased their bond holdings, with monthly net increases of 634.60 billion yuan and 10179.59 billion yuan respectively. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, securities firms, and overseas institutions were negative, at - 112.55 billion yuan, - 27.45 billion yuan, - 109.77 billion yuan, and - 763.67 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, securities firms were the main buyers of bonds, with a monthly net increase of 1457.59 billion yuan. The monthly net increases of custody volumes of commercial banks, credit unions, and insurance companies were negative, at - 2351.82 billion yuan, - 255.68 billion yuan, and - 17.07 billion yuan respectively [5]. Leverage - In October, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90%, remaining flat month - on - month. By institution, the leverage ratios of commercial banks and securities firms increased. The leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.61%, up 0.22 percentage points month - on - month; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.61%, down 0.35 percentage points month - on - month, and the leverage ratio of securities firms was 142.36%, up 1.08 percentage points month - on - month [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month, with a slower growth compared to August, hitting the lowest level since May last year. The adjustment in the bond market was affected by the change in public - offering regulatory policies, but market sentiment towards government bonds has recovered. The bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month, not showing the seasonal increase seen in previous quarter - end months [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 9 - month Bond Custody Increment Shrinks Significantly, Net Financing of Policy Financial Bonds Drops Notably - The total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month in September, 584.8 billion yuan less than in August. Among them, the custody increment of policy financial bonds decreased significantly, while that of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased slightly. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds continued to decline with an enlarged decline, and the custody increment of credit bonds increased slightly [2][5]. 3.2 Public - offering Regulatory New Rules Bring Structural Shocks, Demand for Government Bonds has Recovered - Affected by the public - offering regulatory policy changes in September, the bond market adjusted, especially for bonds with large public - offering holdings. The adjustment was mainly due to panic rather than liquidity pressure. Market sentiment recovered at the end of the month. Structurally, different institutions had different behaviors. Generalized funds reduced their holdings of credit and financial bonds, while securities firms increased their holdings. Both reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds. Commercial banks' increase in holdings decreased, while insurance institutions significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, and the reduction in holdings by overseas institutions decreased [2][9]. - **Generalized Funds**: The decline in the bond custody scale of generalized funds widened by 5.99 billion yuan month - on - month to 25.15 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of more credit and financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased, turning to increase the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [14]. - **Securities Firms**: The bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 353 million yuan month - on - month. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes. Their relative reduction in bond allocation increased slightly [18]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody increment of insurance companies increased by 43 million yuan month - on - month to 439 million yuan. They significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [20]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The decline in the bond custody volume of overseas institutions narrowed by 551 million yuan month - on - month to 446 million yuan. They turned to increase their holdings of policy financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased [24]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody increment of other institutions increased by 203 million yuan month - on - month to 3556 million yuan. They increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes, and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 6056 million yuan month - on - month to 5945 million yuan. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds, and their relative increase in bond allocation decreased [32]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment of credit unions increased by 315 million yuan month - on - month to 419 million yuan. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [38]. 3.3 The Bond Market Leverage Ratio Declined Counter - seasonally in September, and the Leverage Ratio of Generalized Funds Continued to Decline - Affected by the decline in the repurchase balance, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 pct month - on - month to 107.3% in September, remaining at a relatively low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased by 0.2 pct to 103.6%, while that of non - bank institutions remained unchanged at 116.9%. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased by 8.2 pct to 223.3%, and that of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.1 pct to 113.7% [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total bond custody volume increased less month - on - month. As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, 0.58 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase at the end of August [1][11]. - The custody volume of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds increased net month - on - month, while that of financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased net month - on - month [1][11]. - This month, the total custody volume of major bonds of allocation accounts continued to increase month - on - month, while that of trading accounts and overseas institutions continued to decrease month - on - month [2][27]. - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose month - on - month. As of the end of September 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repo was 11.33 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 99.39 billion yuan, and the leverage ratio was 106.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 percentage points [4][53]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Volume and Structure - As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, 0.58 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase at the end of August [1][11]. - In September 2025, the interest - rate bond custody volume was 122.01 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.54% of the inter - bank bond market custody volume, with a net monthly increase of 1.29 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody volume was 18.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.68%, with a net monthly increase of 5.0986 billion yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody volume was 12.76 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.27%, with a net monthly decrease of 4.823 billion yuan; the NCD custody volume was 19.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.38%, with a net monthly decrease of 0.41 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Changes in Custody Volume by Institution Month - on - Month - Policy banks and commercial banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs [2][27]. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board [2][27]. - Securities companies increased their holdings of credit bonds and reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds and NCDs [2][27]. - Credit unions, non - legal entity products, and overseas institutions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs and credit bonds [2][27]. 3.2.2 Changes in Custody Volume by Bond Type Month - on - Month - The custody volume of treasury bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while policy banks continued to reduce their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of local government bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Except for commercial banks reducing their holdings, other major institutions increased their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of policy - financial bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while securities companies and non - legal entity products changed to reducing their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of NCDs continued to decrease month - on - month. Except for insurance institutions increasing their holdings, other major institutions reduced their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of enterprise bonds continued to decrease month - on - month. Commercial banks and non - legal entity products were the main entities reducing their holdings [3][30]. - The custody volume of medium - term notes continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while non - legal entity products changed to reducing their holdings [3][31]. - The custody volume of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills continued to decrease month - on - month. Non - legal entity products were the main entity reducing their holdings [3][31]. - The custody volume of non - publicly - oriented debt instruments continued to decrease month - on - month. Non - legal entity products were the main entity reducing their holdings [3][31]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of September 2025, for treasury bonds, commercial banks held 69.91%, overseas institutions held 5.41%, policy banks held 10.29%, etc. [34]. - For policy - financial bonds, commercial banks held 55.25%, non - legal entity products held 31.66%, overseas institutions held 2.95%, etc. [36]. - For local government bonds, commercial banks held 73.38%, non - legal entity products held 9.50%, policy banks held 10.66%, etc. [39]. - For enterprise bonds, non - legal entity products held 54.98%, commercial banks held 32.02%, securities companies held 9.02%, etc. [41]. - For medium - term notes, non - legal entity products held 60.71%, commercial banks held 24.15%, securities companies held 4.88%, etc. [43]. - For short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills, non - legal entity products held 63.46%, commercial banks held 29.83%, etc. [46]. - For non - publicly - oriented debt instruments, non - legal entity products held 62.06%, commercial banks held 20.31%, etc. [49]. - For NCDs, non - legal entity products held 60.68%, commercial banks held 23.57%, etc. [51]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation - As of the end of September 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repo was 11.33 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 99.39 billion yuan. The leverage ratio was 106.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 percentage points [4][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - The allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - The combined bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased less month - on - month in September. The combined custody volume was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 92.1157 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 48.66 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 3.2441 billion yuan, a rebound in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of CCDC was 126.80 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 88.8716 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment this month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.45 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 132.9742 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.36 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 4.4188 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, financial bonds (excluding policy - bank financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 26.6 billion yuan; company credit - type bonds had a net monthly increase of 7.7706 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 6.8 billion yuan; inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 76.1256 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 126.1742 billion yuan; credit bonds had a net monthly increase of - 37.3026 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 By Institution - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.62 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 60.6672 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and securities institutions increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 9.9437 billion yuan, 1.9957 billion yuan, and 0.3561 billion yuan respectively; policy - bank financial institutions, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 6.6401 billion yuan, - 6.0279 billion yuan, and - 5.5686 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, commercial banks were the main contributor to the increment, with a net monthly increase of 48.1213 billion yuan; securities and broad - based funds had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 3.8856 billion yuan and - 19.1230 billion yuan respectively [5]. 3.4 Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market increased slightly. In September, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90% (previous value: 106.88%), a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points [6]. - By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.40% (previous value: 104.58%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.96% (previous value: 109.66%), a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, among which the leverage ratio of securities companies was 141.28% (previous value: 138.54%), a month - on - month increase of 2.74 percentage points [6].