关注、加星，第 时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 年初以来，经历了2年多的长牛后，债市持续调整，市场分歧也在明显加剧。当前债市投资中有哪些"盲 点"，2025年债市投研框架或将如何修正？本文分析，供参考。 （一）近期债市"新变化"？长牛之后步入调整，市场情绪较为"纠结" 近些年，债市长牛"气贯长虹"；2023年以来，利率下行速率快、曲线平坦化等特征明显。 1）利率下行迅 猛，下行幅度、速率仅次于2013年的行情；2）收益率曲线平坦化，2023年1月以来，10Y国债利率下行 94bp、远大于1Y国债的53bp；3）利率走势与基本面阶段性背离。 本轮债牛的背景是经济增速与政策利率的下移，叠加"资产荒"。 1）2023年2季度至2024年4季度，我国 GDP增速由6.5%下降至5.4%；2）同期，MLF利率从2.75%下行至2.00%；3）地产市场持续调整下，超额 储蓄多涌入了理财与债市。 年初以来，债市出现显著调整，近期市场分歧在明显增加。 1月6日至3月14日，10Y国债利率由1.60%大 幅上行24bp至1.83%。中长期纯债利率型基金久期中位数明显压降，同时，债券市场久 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market following a prolonged bull market, highlighting potential blind spots in investment strategies and suggesting a revised research framework for 2025 [2][9]. Recent Changes in the Bond Market - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment after a long bull run, with notable changes in market sentiment and increased divergence among investors [3][4]. - Key characteristics of the bond market in 2023 include a rapid decline in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 94 basis points (bp) since January, while the 1-year yield decreased by 53 bp [3][10]. - The economic backdrop includes a projected GDP growth decline from 6.5% to 5.4% between Q2 2023 and Q4 2024, alongside a decrease in the MLF rate from 2.75% to 2.00% [3][12]. Investment Blind Spots - The bond market may have entered a period of volatility, particularly as long-term interest rates fall below 2%, which historically leads to several years of oscillation [4][16]. - The extreme market positioning since 2022 has led to a significant deviation from historical norms, with the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the overall A-share dividend yield reaching a negative value of -0.9% by January 2025 [5][26]. Revised Framework for Bond Market Research - The article emphasizes the need for a "rebalancing" approach in asset allocation, as recent policy signals and economic indicators suggest a shift in market dynamics [6][27]. - As of March 14, 2025, mixed funds have a stock holding ratio of 70.5%, indicating a relatively low position compared to historical data, while the 10-year government bond yield remains significantly below the high-dividend stock index yield of 3.35% [6][30]. - The article suggests that the current state of the bond market may lead to a prolonged period of volatility, necessitating a strategic focus on asset allocation [6][35].