作者 |连平 9月17日，美联储宣布降息0.25个百分点，将联邦基金目标利率降至4%～4.25%区间，开启了本轮降息 的第二阶段。不同于纾困式降息，本次实施的降息为预防式降息，即在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行 为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆发而前瞻实施的相对温和降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。 预计今年剩下一个季度的时间内，美联储仍可能推进温和降息，即1-2次，降幅为0.25-0.5个百分点；降 幅多大，主要看经济增长和通货膨胀的态势。当经济增长和就业状况明显走弱，而通胀状态较为温和 时，降息可能2次，降幅0.5个百分点左右；如果增长和就业较为平稳，而通胀却明显回升，则可能降息 1次，降幅0.25个百分点。下一阶段，美联储货币政策主要在刺激经济和防控通胀两大目标之间寻求平 衡。 通常，美联储降息对股市较为友好，尤其是预防式降息有助于提高融资可获得性，减少企业融资成本， 激活并购交易，抑制金融市场风险溢价等。但本轮降息第二阶段重启对全球股市的积极影响不宜高估。 今年以来，全球股市在资金流向上出现了一系列值得关注的重要变化： 2025.10.02 本文字数：2213，阅读时长大约4分钟 首先是美国股市资金持 ...

当前美股资金流出的主要方向是"资产配置再平衡"。美股资金外流确实存在，且规模不小，但主要流向 美国境内的债券和货币市场，是从风险较高的权益类资产转向稳健型资产，而非大规模转战海外股市。 换言之，投资者行为更偏向"避险"而非"换市"，反映出投资者对美国经济和就业疲弱、政府债务压力不 断增大、美股高估值、政策不确定性等因素的担忧，是一种风险偏好水平下降的表现。 尽管美国以外的全球股市的确吸引了部分资金，尤其是欧洲、中国等市场的吸引力明显增强，但规模相 对有限，更多仍体现为"结构性机会"。其实质性的原因在于，非美市场并未形成有效的吸引力：欧洲经 济受地缘冲突影响，持续低速增长，投资风险较大。中国经济受到关税战、全球产业链重整等外部压 力；内部经济基本面尚未呈现强势，内需依然不足，境外投资者依然认为仍存在不确定性，市场的国际 吸引力提升需要有个过程。其他经济体的规模较为有限，也难成气候。当前资金从美股流向非美市场， 很大程度上是出于估值修复、政策催化与美元走弱下的战术性调仓，而非对美股长期趋势失去信心。未 来是否会出现更大规模的资金流出浪潮，还有待进一步观察。 预计今年剩下一个季度的时间内，美联储仍可能推进温和降息， ...

对可能发生的"热钱"的冲击绝不能掉以轻心。 9月17日，美联储宣布降息0.25个百分点，将联邦基金目标利率降至4%～4.25%区间，开启了本轮降息 的第二阶段。不同于纾困式降息，本次实施的降息为预防式降息，即在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行 为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆发而前瞻实施的相对温和降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。 预计今年剩下一个季度的时间内，美联储仍可能推进温和降息，即1-2次，降幅为0.25-0.5个百分点；降 幅多大，主要看经济增长和通货膨胀的态势。当经济增长和就业状况明显走弱，而通胀状态较为温和 时，降息可能2次，降幅0.5个百分点左右；如果增长和就业较为平稳，而通胀却明显回升，则可能降息 1次，降幅0.25个百分点。下一阶段，美联储货币政策主要在刺激经济和防控通胀两大目标之间寻求平 衡。 通常，美联储降息对股市较为友好，尤其是预防式降息有助于提高融资可获得性，减少企业融资成本， 激活并购交易，抑制金融市场风险溢价等。但本轮降息第二阶段重启对全球股市的积极影响不宜高估。 今年以来，全球股市在资金流向上出现了一系列值得关注的重要变化： MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石 ...

新华财经北京9月26日电（王菁）债市周五（9月26日）小幅回暖，期债表现优于现券，国债期货主力合 约全线收涨，银行间现券收益率走势稍有分化，国债基本持稳、长端国开债延续偏弱；公开市场单日净 投放4115亿元，隔夜资金利率显著回落。 机构认为，临近季末资金投放力度尚可，流动性虽不至于特别紧张但心态无法完全放松，跨月资金需求 相对较旺。本周债市多数时间震荡回调，近期机构心态分歧在明显增加。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，9月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1658亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量1658亿元，中标量1658亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展了6000亿元14天期逆回购操作。数据显示，当日3543亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放4115 亿元。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.20%报114.190，10年期主力合约涨0.13%报107.680，5年 期主力合约涨0.06%报105.540，2年期主力合约涨0.04%报102.342。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势小幅分化，长端国开债午后偏弱，国债表现持稳。截至发稿，30年期国 债" ...

关注、加星，第 时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 年初以来，经历了2年多的长牛后，债市持续调整，市场分歧也在明显加剧。当前债市投资中有哪些"盲 点"，2025年债市投研框架或将如何修正？本文分析，供参考。 （一）近期债市"新变化"？长牛之后步入调整，市场情绪较为"纠结" 近些年，债市长牛"气贯长虹"；2023年以来，利率下行速率快、曲线平坦化等特征明显。 1）利率下行迅 猛，下行幅度、速率仅次于2013年的行情；2）收益率曲线平坦化，2023年1月以来，10Y国债利率下行 94bp、远大于1Y国债的53bp；3）利率走势与基本面阶段性背离。 本轮债牛的背景是经济增速与政策利率的下移，叠加"资产荒"。 1）2023年2季度至2024年4季度，我国 GDP增速由6.5%下降至5.4%；2）同期，MLF利率从2.75%下行至2.00%；3）地产市场持续调整下，超额 储蓄多涌入了理财与债市。 年初以来，债市出现显著调整，近期市场分歧在明显增加。 1月6日至3月14日，10Y国债利率由1.60%大 幅上行24bp至1.83%。中长期纯债利率型基金久期中位数明显压降，同时，债券市场久 ...

当前，市场对于9月美联储降息预期强烈。CME"美联储观察"最新预测数据显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。美联 储议息会议召开在即，一旦宣布重启降息，对美国股市是利是弊？美股会迎来大幅提振吗，还是会加快推动资金流向中国、欧洲等全球其他股市？ 本轮预防式降息对美股提振有限。 不同类型的降息对美股影响各不相同 首先需要讨论和厘清的是，美联储即将启动的降息属于何种性质。一般来说，美联储降息可分为预防式降息和纾困式降息两类。 预防式降息是指在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆发而前瞻实施的相对温和的降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。 纾困式降息是指在经济已处于严重的衰退状态，或遭遇到突如其来的重大冲击时，央行采取连续、大幅的降息动作，以缓解经济困境。如2020年为应对疫情 采取的大幅降息的"量化宽松"政策。上世纪90年代以来，美联储经历了6轮比较明显的降息周期，包括两轮预防式降息和三轮纾困式降息，以及一轮由预防 式降息和纾困式降息叠加的混合式降息。 回顾历史不难发现，预防式降息和纾困式降息因政策环境、政策力度等不同，对美国股市的影响存在明显差异。 从总 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July and August significantly below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - Inflation data remains moderate, with the U.S. CPI growth rate at 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation are manageable [5][6] - Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.1% probability assigned to this outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that a weaker dollar is likely to continue, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds and support the performance of gold [8][10] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation-like" tendencies, with declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [9] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a favorable environment for gold, with prices already showing a significant increase of nearly 40% year-to-date [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the U.S. stock market is expected to vary, with potential short-term liquidity injections but possible long-term volatility [12][13] - Historical patterns suggest that U.S. stocks may not experience significant downward adjustments during preventive rate cuts, especially in the absence of other negative factors [13] - The Chinese stock market may benefit from the weaker dollar and a restructuring of global monetary order, with small-cap stocks in sectors like biotechnology and AI gaining attention [14][15]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is supporting the listing of emerging companies related to AI and chips on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Science and Technology Innovation Board" [5] - The A-share market is expected to shift from a rapid rotation and small-cap dominance to a broad rally favoring core assets [6] - The A-share market has reached a historical high in market capitalization, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to exceed 3700 points by August 2025 [6] Group 2 - Factors driving the continuation of the bull market include the easing of Trump tariffs, the approaching Fed rate cuts, and improved expectations for domestic policies and fundamentals [6] - Long-term asset allocation trends indicate a shift towards increasing financial asset allocations, with the current price ratio effects among stocks, bonds, and real estate influencing the equity market [6] - Both institutional and individual investors have room for further accumulation under policy guidance and improving sentiment, creating a positive feedback loop with market performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy of dividend funds, emphasizing the importance of understanding when to take profits and the underlying logic of high dividend strategies in the context of market fluctuations and long-term value [3][25]. Group 1: Dividend Fund Investment Logic - Dividend funds possess a unique dual revenue engine, combining capital appreciation from stock price movements with stable dividend income [4][10]. - High dividend yields can significantly reduce the time required for investors to recover from price declines, with higher yields leading to shorter recovery periods [11][7]. - Historical data shows that during market downturns, dividend-focused indices tend to outperform broader market indices, demonstrating their resilience [12][27]. Group 2: Profit-Taking Strategies - Investors often face the dilemma of whether to take profits on accumulated gains, with research indicating that poor timing decisions can lead to lower returns compared to the fund's actual performance [14][19]. - A disciplined asset allocation strategy can help maintain risk exposure while allowing for profit-taking without the need for precise market timing [19][20]. - Lifecycle adjustments in asset allocation can optimize risk as investors age, suggesting a gradual shift from equities to fixed income [22][23]. Group 3: Long-Term Value and Investment Philosophy - The essence of dividend investing lies in identifying companies that consistently generate cash flow and share profits with shareholders, particularly during market lows [30][31]. - The article advocates for a long-term investment approach, where minimizing trading activity and focusing on compounding returns through reinvested dividends can lead to greater success [28][29]. - Ultimately, the decision to take profits should align with individual risk tolerance and investment goals, reinforcing the idea that investing should enhance life rather than become a burden [31][32].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current macroeconomic changes and the impact on global capital markets, highlighting the volatility and challenges faced by traditional income-generating investments like fixed deposits and money market funds [2][3]. - In this context, dividend funds are gaining popularity among investors as a stable investment option due to their high dividend yields [4]. - The article raises the question of whether investors should take profits from dividend funds and explores the underlying logic of high dividend strategies in balancing short-term fluctuations and long-term value [5]. Group 2 - The concept of "not cutting losses" in dividend fund investments is emphasized, where investors focus on the dual benefits of capital appreciation and stable dividend income [6]. - High dividend yields can significantly reduce the time required for investors to recover from price declines, with the article providing data on how different dividend yields affect recovery times [10][12]. - Historical market practices validate this logic, showing that investors who held onto dividend funds during downturns were able to benefit from subsequent market recoveries [13]. Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of scientific profit-taking strategies, suggesting that asset allocation rebalancing can help manage floating profits without the need for precise market timing [20][21]. - Historical data indicates that implementing annual rebalancing can reduce volatility and improve the stability of returns compared to static portfolios [22]. - The article also mentions that the frequency of rebalancing should be moderate to avoid eroding the benefits of dividend reinvestment [24]. Group 4 - The essence of dividend investing is to anchor investments in companies that consistently generate cash flow and share profits with shareholders, emphasizing the importance of patience during market downturns [30]. - The article concludes that whether to take profits or not should align with individual risk tolerance and investment goals, advocating for a long-term perspective in dividend investing [30][34].