券商策略会现场，还能"淘"到百元级平价靓衫？ 近日，网传消息称，在申万宏源（000166.SZ）资本市场投资年会现场，会场外设置了"户外服装特卖场，最贵的 衣服也就180块"。 网传视频截图 事实上，策略会上推销产品，在券商行业内并非孤立。此前，国内某头部券商在广州举行的2025年中期投资策略 报告会就与国内某新能源汽车厂商合作，在报告会现场推出智能智驾前沿分享以及试乘试驾服务，邀请与会嘉宾 现场参观和体验。业内人士指出，券商的策略会，尤其是大性策略会，往往参与人数众多，其中不乏中小股东或 个人投资者，其未必不能成为一个合适的消费场景。 最贵180元/件 据网传微信聊天截图，近日申万宏源在上海金茂君悦大酒店嘉宾厅召开一年一度的券商策略会，会场外面设置了 嘉麟杰特卖，"有户外羊毛服饰和抓绒衣，大牌同款面料，价格十分之一，最贵的也就180块，性价比很高！欢迎 大家选购！" 公开资料显示，嘉麟杰（002486.SZ）成立于2001年，于2010年10月15日在深圳证券交易所上市，是国内户外运动 功能性面料企业，公司集研发设计、生产制造、营销服务于一体，在针织方面具有从纬编织造、染色、后整理到 成衣的连续加工生产配置 ...

四季度大类资产的节奏应是配置再平衡的过程。今年市场中大类资产配置的重要性尤为突出，尤其在 二、三季度，随着权益市场大幅上涨，部分类债资产出现了调整。但到了四季度，多数资产进入收官窗 口期，大部分机构也将开启资产配置再平衡。10月份是这一过程的开端，我们认为11月份仍处于这一阶 段，12月份基本进入收尾期，后续行情的进一步演绎或需等到明年。 我们先来分析债券市场微观结构出现的边际变化，当前最值得关注的是债券市场重要驱动方——人民银 行近期宣布重启债券买卖。先来解释什么是债券买卖：人民银行向市场投放流动性的货币政策工具种类 较多，比如我们日常接触较多的正逆回购工具，或是降准、降息这类工具。随着利率进入低利率时代， 债券波动相对加大，人民银行从去年起就推出了一项名为"债券买卖"的流动性投放工具：当全市场短期 供给压力较大、短期流动性紧缺时，人民银行会通过大行买卖债券以投放流动性；若阶段性观察到收益 率曲线出现平坦化趋势，且可能引发进一步金融风险，人民银行则会启动卖债操作，或阶段性停止买 债。 人民银行在去年12月持续通过债券买卖向市场投放流动性，维持了当前资金宽松的环境，直至今年1月 10日前后才停止债券买卖。当时 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Q4 market may not experience the same "running ahead" trend as in previous years, with a weaker attitude towards institutional buying in the bond market [6][7][8] - The report suggests that the central bank's resumption of bond purchases is primarily aimed at injecting long-term liquidity and replacing financial liabilities at low costs, with potential buying space estimated between 870 billion and 1.15 trillion [9][10] - The probability of interest rate cuts may marginally increase, but remains low, with the decision on reserve requirement ratios depending on the scale of bond purchases [11][12] Group 2 - Current market trading congestion has decreased compared to Q3, but many funds still maintain high durations, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [12] - The report highlights that strategies for Q4 and 2026 may shift from duration strategies to interest rate arbitrage strategies, with an increased focus on asset allocation [15] - Credit bonds have shown strong performance since October, but the report warns that this trend may not be sustainable due to potential regulatory impacts and reduced demand for credit bonds [16][18] Group 3 - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance in early 2026 may weaken the allocation power of insurance towards perpetual bonds, with a more significant negative impact expected on bank perpetual bonds [20][21] - The new VAT regulations on bond interest income may create pricing discrepancies between new and old financial bonds, affecting investor choices and market dynamics [23][24] - The report discusses the impact of stock market inflows on convertible bonds, suggesting that increased risk appetite may lead to higher demand for convertible bonds, benefiting their prices [27][28] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the need to adjust the investment framework for convertible bonds, shifting from a cyclical price perspective to a focus on the underlying stock's fundamental elasticity [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic and financial risks [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure rather than a crisis response, intended to mitigate potential economic downturns [2] - The Fed may implement 1-2 additional rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, with a total reduction of 0.25-0.5 percentage points depending on economic growth and inflation trends [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The rate cut is generally favorable for the stock market, enhancing financing accessibility and reducing corporate financing costs, but its positive impact on global markets should not be overestimated [2] - Significant capital outflows from U.S. equities have been observed, with approximately $259 billion exiting U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July [3] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Funds flowing out of U.S. equities are primarily being reallocated to U.S. bonds and money markets, indicating a shift towards safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign equities [4] - Despite some capital inflow into non-U.S. markets, the overall scale remains limited, with only $13.6 billion flowing into global equity funds outside the U.S. in July [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the Fed continues its moderate rate cut strategy, most funds are expected to remain within the U.S. financial markets, although some investors may seek undervalued assets globally [5] - A potential aggressive rate cut by the Fed could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, benefiting developed markets like Europe and Japan, as well as emerging markets [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts [1] - This rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure aimed at mitigating potential economic and financial risks amid signs of localized economic slowdown, rather than a crisis response [1] - The Fed is expected to continue with moderate rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, potentially implementing 1-2 additional cuts depending on economic growth and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion net outflow from U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July alone [1][2] - The majority of the outflow has shifted towards U.S. bond and money markets, indicating a preference for safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign stock markets [3] - Despite the outflow from U.S. equities, the global allocation remains predominantly in U.S. stocks, with fund managers maintaining around 60% allocation to U.S. equities [2] Group 3 - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese stocks and funds has reversed a two-year trend of net selling, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [2] - European markets have also benefited from the outflow of funds from the U.S., with countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy experiencing double-digit gains this year [2] - The current trend of capital reallocation reflects a cautious approach by investors, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy, high valuations, and policy uncertainties [3] Group 4 - As the Fed continues its moderate preemptive rate cut strategy, a portion of "smart money" may seek opportunities in global markets, particularly in developed markets like Europe and Japan, while emerging markets may see more structural inflows [4] - The potential for aggressive rate cuts under pressure from the Trump administration could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, benefiting both developed and emerging markets [5] - However, the risk of rapid capital outflows remains if the Fed is forced to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation, which could negatively impact global markets, especially in emerging economies with high external debt [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts aimed at preventing potential economic and financial risks [1] - The Fed is expected to continue with moderate rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, potentially implementing 1-2 more cuts, depending on economic growth and inflation trends [1] - Typically, Fed rate cuts are favorable for the stock market, enhancing financing availability and reducing corporate financing costs, but the positive impact of this round of cuts on global markets should not be overestimated [1] Group 2 - There has been significant capital outflow from the U.S. stock market, with U.S. long-term equity mutual funds experiencing a net outflow of approximately $259 billion in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July [2] - The outflow of funds from U.S. equities is primarily directed towards U.S. bond and money markets, indicating a shift from higher-risk equity assets to more stable investments [3] - Despite the outflow from U.S. stocks, global equity funds outside the U.S. saw a modest inflow of $13.6 billion in July, the highest since December 2021, but still relatively limited in absolute terms [2][3] Group 3 - Asian and European markets have attracted some of the capital flowing out of the U.S. stock market, with foreign investment in China's domestic stocks and funds increasing by $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3] - European markets, including Germany, Spain, and Italy, have seen double-digit gains this year, driven by foreign capital inflows and monetary easing [3] - The current outflow from U.S. equities is characterized as "asset allocation rebalancing," reflecting investor concerns over the U.S. economy and a preference for safer assets rather than a loss of confidence in the long-term trend of U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - While global markets outside the U.S. have gained some attractiveness, the scale of capital inflow remains limited, primarily reflecting structural opportunities rather than a significant shift in investor sentiment [4] - Future capital flows will depend on the development of domestic demand in China and the overall economic conditions in Europe and Japan, which are expected to benefit from the Fed's moderate rate cut strategy [4] - A potential large-scale outflow of capital could occur if the Fed is forced to tighten monetary policy due to rising inflation, which could negatively impact emerging markets with high external debt [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 26, with government bond futures rising across the board, while the interbank bond yield exhibited some divergence, indicating mixed sentiment among institutions as the quarter-end approaches [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.20% at 114.190, the 10-year main contract up 0.13% at 107.680, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.540, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.342 [2]. - The interbank yield on long-term government bonds weakened in the afternoon, while government bonds remained stable. The 30-year government bond yield was flat at 2.2245%, and the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 1.8005% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a net injection of 411.5 billion yuan on September 26, with significant reverse repos conducted, including 1,658 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a rate of 1.40% and 6,000 billion yuan for 14-day terms [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 15.1 basis points to 1.321% and the 7-day rate down 8.3 basis points to 1.501% [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the "old-for-new" policy effectively boosted retail sales in the first half of the year, particularly in durable goods and communication equipment, indicating a shift towards smarter and greener consumption [6]. - Shenwan Macro pointed out that once long-term rates fall below 2%, markets often enter a period of volatility, suggesting that the current market may be undergoing a rebalancing phase in asset allocation strategies [7].

关注、加星，第 时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 年初以来，经历了2年多的长牛后，债市持续调整，市场分歧也在明显加剧。当前债市投资中有哪些"盲 点"，2025年债市投研框架或将如何修正？本文分析，供参考。 （一）近期债市"新变化"？长牛之后步入调整，市场情绪较为"纠结" 近些年，债市长牛"气贯长虹"；2023年以来，利率下行速率快、曲线平坦化等特征明显。 1）利率下行迅 猛，下行幅度、速率仅次于2013年的行情；2）收益率曲线平坦化，2023年1月以来，10Y国债利率下行 94bp、远大于1Y国债的53bp；3）利率走势与基本面阶段性背离。 本轮债牛的背景是经济增速与政策利率的下移，叠加"资产荒"。 1）2023年2季度至2024年4季度，我国 GDP增速由6.5%下降至5.4%；2）同期，MLF利率从2.75%下行至2.00%；3）地产市场持续调整下，超额 储蓄多涌入了理财与债市。 年初以来，债市出现显著调整，近期市场分歧在明显增加。 1月6日至3月14日，10Y国债利率由1.60%大 幅上行24bp至1.83%。中长期纯债利率型基金久期中位数明显压降，同时，债券市场久 ...

Group 1 - The current market has a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 92% probability according to CME FedWatch [1] - The upcoming rate cut is categorized as a preventive measure rather than a crisis response, which historically has different impacts on the stock market [1][8] - Preventive rate cuts can lower corporate financing costs, stimulate mergers and acquisitions, and reduce market risk premiums, potentially boosting stock market valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Historical examples show that preventive rate cuts in 1995-1996 and 1998 led to significant stock market recoveries, with the Nasdaq rising 39.6% in 1995 and 28.2% in 1996 [3] - In contrast, crisis-driven rate cuts often fail to prevent stock market declines due to existing economic downturns and investor panic, as seen during the 2001 and 2007 crises [6][7] - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with inflation pressures complicating the effectiveness of preventive rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a cumulative 100 basis point cut [10] - The potential for a second phase of rate cuts remains uncertain, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach to balance economic stimulation and inflation control, or an aggressive approach that could lead to short-term market boosts but long-term instability [14][15] - The outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market is more about asset reallocation rather than a mass exodus, with significant investments still directed towards U.S. bonds and money markets [16][19] Group 4 - Global stock markets, particularly in China and Europe, are attracting some capital, but the overall scale of this shift remains limited and reflects structural opportunities rather than a definitive trend [17][20] - If the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate cut strategy, it could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, but risks of a rapid outflow of capital could emerge if inflation pressures force a tightening of monetary policy [21]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July and August significantly below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - Inflation data remains moderate, with the U.S. CPI growth rate at 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation are manageable [5][6] - Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.1% probability assigned to this outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that a weaker dollar is likely to continue, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds and support the performance of gold [8][10] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation-like" tendencies, with declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [9] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a favorable environment for gold, with prices already showing a significant increase of nearly 40% year-to-date [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the U.S. stock market is expected to vary, with potential short-term liquidity injections but possible long-term volatility [12][13] - Historical patterns suggest that U.S. stocks may not experience significant downward adjustments during preventive rate cuts, especially in the absence of other negative factors [13] - The Chinese stock market may benefit from the weaker dollar and a restructuring of global monetary order, with small-cap stocks in sectors like biotechnology and AI gaining attention [14][15]