资产配置再平衡

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FT中文网精选:牛市未央
日经中文网· 2025-08-25 03:08
编者荐语: 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜,推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次, 作为其中的一环,两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ,作者王宇哲 FT中文网 . 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站,旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 2025年8月,上证指数站上3700点,A股市值创历史新高,对中国权益资产的配置热度不 减。在代表性指数创下十年新高的当下,笔者认为,以下因素仍有望驱动权益市场延续牛市 行情:其一,特朗普关税缓释、美联储降息临近,对于国内政策和基本面的预期改善继续推 升风险偏好;其二,资产配置再平衡长期势能仍指向增配金融资产,当前股、债、房的比价 效应将主导估值合理的权益市场继续"追赶行情";其三,机构和个人投资者在政策引导和情 绪回暖下仍有进一步加仓空间,增量资金将与市场表现构成正向循环。 展望下一阶段,A股风格有望从快速轮动、小微盘占优行情转为核心资产占优的普涨行情。 结合以往牛市的经 ...
红利类基金实操:长期持有是否需要止盈?又该如何止盈?
天天基金网· 2025-08-06 11:41
以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ,作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法,我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 仿佛转瞬间,2025年已行至过半。 海内外宏观的变局仍在加速发酵,全球资本市场仿佛坐上了一辆没有终点的过山车,震荡与起伏成为常态。 与此同时,低利率时代的帷幕已经拉开,定期存款、货基等传统收息方式正集体遭遇"收益缩水"的挑战。 在这样的背景之下,红利基金凭借其高股息的独特特质,成为越来越多投资者的配置压舱石。 然而,随着红利策略近年来的持续走强,一个现实问题开始在投资者心中萦绕: 红利基金是否需要止盈?又该如何止盈? 这个看似简单的问题,实则触及了红利投资的本质内核。本文试图从高股息策略的底层逻辑出发,在短期波动与长期价值之间寻找答案。 01 股息复利—— 不止损的逻辑与"本金修复力" 传统股票投资中,止盈与止损的点位设置常被视为操作纪律的核心,但红利基金的投资逻辑却有所不同,"止盈不止损"甚至"主动买套"成为多数成熟投资 者的共识。 这并非随意的选择,而是源于红利基金作为权益资产的独特属性——它拥有双重收益引擎,既包含股价波动带来的资本增值,更有持续稳定的股息收入。 美国沃顿商学院教授杰里米J.西格尔在《投资者的 ...
深度解读:债券市场近期调整的思考
2025-07-28 01:42
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its recent adjustments, influenced by macroeconomic policies and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Factors**: The recent market adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite following the initiation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which boosted equity and commodity markets, thereby exerting pressure on the bond market [2]. 2. **Liquidity Conditions**: After a period of relative liquidity in June, July saw increased volatility and signs of tightening liquidity, which placed significant pressure on bullish positions in the bond market [2][3]. 3. **Redemption Pressures**: Weak institutional earnings have led to redemption pressures, causing a shift in holdings between trading and allocation positions [2][3]. 4. **"Anti-Internal Competition" Policy**: This policy aims to elevate prices to lower the actual interest rates for enterprises, thereby improving profitability. The effectiveness of this policy will be assessed by monitoring CPI and PPI in the fourth quarter [1][4]. 5. **Asset Allocation Trends**: The adjustment in asset allocation is primarily occurring at the institutional level, with a notable increase in the allocation to equity assets, particularly high-dividend stocks and Hong Kong stocks, as a response to declining deposit rates [5][6]. 6. **Bond Supply and Demand**: Convertible bonds are in high demand due to their scarcity, while credit bonds have stable net supply but increased demand due to the growth of wealth management products. Conversely, the supply of interest rate bonds is rising, but demand is weakening [7]. 7. **Future Market Variables**: Key variables to monitor include central bank operations, potential tightening of liquidity, and the impact of government bond issuance on market dynamics. The necessity for interest rate cuts may decrease if the focus shifts to lowering actual interest rates [8][9]. 8. **Macroeconomic Trends**: The macroeconomic trend is shifting from relying on rate cuts to using price increases to lower actual rates. This could pose mid-term risks to the bond market if nominal growth and price levels rise [10]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights a lack of significant retail investor movement towards equities, indicating that the rebalancing of assets is more pronounced among institutional investors [5][6]. - The potential for a rebound in the third quarter is noted, contingent on fiscal issuance and central bank liquidity measures, while caution is advised for the fourth quarter due to possible risks [8][9].
国泰海通:多重因素有望支持中国资产继续表现 战术性超配A股、港股与美股
智通财经网· 2025-07-27 22:47
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].
机构看金市:7月10日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 07:00
Group 1 - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend due to strong support from market conditions and geopolitical factors [1][2] - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has led to a resurgence of market risk aversion, providing strong short-term support for gold prices [2][3] - The World Gold Council indicates that gold prices will benefit from rising U.S. deficits and increasing fiscal instability, which are driving global capital reallocation [3] Group 2 - Analysts from Saxo Bank believe that factors driving precious metal prices upward still exist, with expectations of increased demand due to declining U.S. interest rates [4] - The current gold price is oscillating within a relatively narrow range, lacking new bullish catalysts, which increases the risk of further market corrections [4] - Future support factors for precious metals include ongoing central bank demand, inflation risks in the U.S., geopolitical tensions, and a shift of institutional investors towards tangible assets [4]