每经记者｜岳楚鹏 宋欣悦 每经编辑｜段炼 高涵 易启江 黄金，这一古老资产，正在挑战现代金融体系的基石——美国国债。 近日，一组数据在华尔街"刷屏"。9月3日，资管机构Crescat Capital合伙人兼宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔 （Tavi Costa）汇编并发布数据称：在金价创下新纪录之际，黄金在除美联储外央行的储备占比，自 1996年以来首次超过美国国债。 科斯塔认为，这一转折点可能是"近代史上最重大的全球再平衡的开始"。这反映了各国央行在战略性调 整储备资产结构：从美元债券转向黄金等实物资产。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青向《每日经济新闻》记者指出，各国央行持续增持黄金，是为了 逐步降低对美元资产的依赖，从而分散单一储备货币可能带来的潜在风险；黄金正处于历史上第三轮大 牛市。 美国当地时间9月5日，纽约现货黄金（XAU/USD）涨1.16%，报3586.81美元/盎司。值得注意的是，8 月末我国黄金储备为7402万盎司，较上月末增加6万盎司，这是我国央行连续10个月增持黄金。 全球央行掀"黄金热" 黄金处第三轮大牛市 在全球央行持续增持的推动下，金价一路走强。今年以来，黄金期货价格上涨了36%，远 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is challenging the foundation of the modern financial system, specifically U.S. Treasury bonds, as its share in central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. debt for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant global rebalancing in reserve asset structures [2][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets, thereby diversifying potential risks associated with a single reserve currency [2][10]. - Since Q3 2020, global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons, nearly double the average of the previous decade [6][10]. - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [8]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is currently in its third major bull market, with prices rising 36% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Bitcoin [11][15]. - Historical context shows that gold has previously surged during major financial upheavals, such as the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis, making it a preferred asset for hedging against inflation and currency devaluation [14][15]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in decades, leading to a significant drop in bond prices [16][18]. - The current decade is projected to be one of the worst for U.S. Treasury bonds, with rising yields reflecting market concerns over inflation and debt sustainability [18][19]. - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as "risk-free" has shifted, requiring higher risk premiums to attract investors, while safe-haven funds are increasingly moving towards gold [19]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Several financial institutions are bullish on gold prices, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by macroeconomic risks and potential political pressures on the Federal Reserve [20].