Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income research report released on August 26, 2025, aiming to analyze the bond market adjustment and provide investment suggestions through historical review, institutional cost assessment, and market sentiment analysis [1][10] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - During the equity bull market from 2014 - 2025, the performance of the bond market was not unilaterally opposed to the stock market but depended on the dynamic balance of risk preference and capital flow [3] - The current bond market correction is more like a "topping - out period" rather than a "peaking period". The upward space and time of interest rates are constrained by factors such as the return of allocation, policy soft constraints, and marginal improvement in supply and demand [4] - It is recommended to adhere to the "bottom - line thinking", focusing on the upper - bound constraint of interest rates and entry opportunities. If the risk preference is extremely priced and the 10Y - 1Y spread reaches 50 - 60BP, the corresponding 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% - 1.95% is the bottom - line range [4] Summary by Directory 1. 2014 - 2025, Review of Bond Market Trends in Previous Stock Bull Markets 1.1 2014–2015: Bull and Divergence of Stocks and Bonds Driven by Loose Pattern and Expectation Divergence - In the early stage (June - November 2014), with the promotion of reform expectations and loose signals, the stock and bond markets showed a short - term "double - bull" pattern [11] - From November to December 2014, after the central bank's interest rate cut and price mechanism reform, the stock market accelerated, while the bond market showed "profit - taking", presenting a "stock - up, bond - down" situation [11] - From December 2014 to February 2015, during the stock market consolidation period, the bond market had a repair opportunity, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by more than 45bp [11] - From March to April 2015, with the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates and the expansion of leveraged funds, the stock market accelerated, and the bond market showed an "N - shaped" shock [11] - From May to June 2015, with the influx of leveraged funds into the stock market, the bond market was under pressure, showing a typical "strong - stock, weak - bond" situation [11] 1.2 2016 - 2017: "First Bull, Then Bear" in the Bond Market under the Background of Supply - side Reform and De - leveraging - From June to August 2016, due to the supply - side reform and loose monetary policy, the stock and bond markets both rose [14] - From September 2016 to February 2017, the stock market continued to rise, while the bond market was under pressure due to the expectation of economic stabilization and inflation recovery, presenting a "stock - up, bond - down" situation [14] - From March to May 2017, due to domestic de - leveraging, tightened monetary policy, and external shocks, the stock and bond markets both declined [14] - From the second half of 2017 to the end of 2017, the stock market was strong, and the bond market was weak, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield approaching 4.0% [14][16] 1.3 2019–2021: Deduction of the Stock - Bond Seesaw and Structural Bull Market - In 2019, during the GEM bull market, the stock market was strong, and the bond market was stable with a narrow - range fluctuation of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 3.1% - 3.2% [17] - In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the bond market first entered a bull market, and then the stock market became strong again after the economic recovery, showing a seesaw effect [19] - In 2021, with the weakening of growth momentum, the bond market returned to a bull market, and the stock market still had structural opportunities, showing a phased resonance [19] 2. In the Assumption of an Equity Bull Market, What Stage is the Current Bond Market Correction in? 2.1 In This Round of Bond Market Correction, the Interest Rates of Some Varieties are Close to the Holding - Cost Lines of Product Accounts - For wealth management products, as of the week of August 24, the 1 - year cost yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 3.28BP higher than the average interest rate of certificates of deposit, and the 1 - year cost yield of 0 - 1Y policy - financial bonds was 1.86BP lower than the 1 - year CDB bond yield [22] - For funds, as of the week of August 24, the 1.5 - year cost yield of 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds was 16.14BP higher than the 10 - year CDB bond average, and the 1.5 - year cost yield of 10Y+ Treasury bonds was 23.36BP lower than the 30 - year Treasury bond yield [22] - In terms of institutional trading behavior, insurance institutions increased their net positions in ultra - long - term bonds, rural financial institutions adjusted their positions, and wealth management products shifted from the interest - rate style to the credit style [23] 2.2 Analyzing the Market's Deduction Space from Micro - sentiment Indicators - The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, but the upper bound of long - term yields may be gradually clear. The stock market is hot, while the bond market sentiment is controllable [30] - The stock - bond yield spread shows that the cost - performance of bond assets has increased, attracting the return of some allocation - type institutions [30] - The scale of wealth management products is under pressure, with an increase weaker than the seasonal level, but it remains relatively stable. There is no large - scale redemption of fixed - income funds [31] 2.3 Bond Market Outlook: Adjustment May Have Intervals. Pay Attention to the "Topping - out - Returning" Rhythm with Bottom - line Thinking - The current bond market correction is relatively moderate, and the upward space and time of interest rates are constrained. Wealth management products and bond funds still have safety cushions and profit margins [34] - The central bank has increased liquidity injection. If interest rates over - adjust, the probability of the central bank's intervention will increase [34] - The supply - demand relationship may improve marginally. The peak of bond issuance has passed, and the return of allocation demand will help balance supply and demand [35] - The economic growth and inflation are in a moderate range, and the bond market pricing will return to the center determined by the fundamentals and policy interest rates. It is recommended to use bottom - line thinking for long - term interest - rate bond allocation [36]