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转债市场周报:看好小盘风格,偏股转债占优-20251109
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-09 15:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is optimistic about the small - cap style, with equity - biased convertible bonds being dominant. In the short - term, the market may still present mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to high - growth sectors such as energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, and innovative drugs; sectors with improved supply - demand like photovoltaic and chemical industries; as well as high - dividend sectors such as banks and power, and look for layout opportunities in individual stocks with high volatility of the underlying stocks or low - premium equity - biased convertible bonds [1][2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7) Stock Market - The equity market continued its volatile upward trend last week, with rapid sector rotation among trading days. Due to increased power grid investment and the rapid development of AI driving higher power demand, the power equipment sector performed well. Overall, the value style was dominant, and the technology sector was weak. Among the daily performances, on Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively; on Tuesday, they all declined; on Wednesday, they rose again; on Thursday, they continued to rise; and on Friday, they adjusted [1][7]. - In terms of industries, most Shenwan primary industries closed higher. The power equipment (4.98%), coal (4.52%), petroleum and petrochemical (4.47%), steel (4.39%), and basic chemical (3.54%) sectors led the gains, while the beauty care (-3.10%), computer (-2.54%), pharmaceutical biology (-2.40%), and automobile (-1.24%) sectors lagged [8]. Bond Market - In the first half of the week, the bond market was relatively flat under a generally balanced capital situation. However, in the second half of the week, with the implementation of the central bank's bond trading, the resurgence of the equity market, and the expiration of 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases leading to a marginal tightening of funds, the bond market weakened. The 10 - year treasury bond yield closed at 1.81% on Friday, up 1.88bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86% for the week, the median price increased by 0.21%, the calculated arithmetic average parity rose 0.48% for the week, and the overall market conversion premium rate decreased by 0.09% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by +1.18%, +0.33%, and +1.39% respectively, and were at the 89%, 96%, and 93% quantiles since 2023 [1][8]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bond industries closed higher. The steel (+3.18%), power equipment (+2.66%), coal (+2.53%), and commercial retail (+2.05%) sectors led the gains, while the computer (-1.68%), automobile (-1.54%), media (-1.34%), and electronics (-0.91%) sectors lagged [9]. - At the individual bond level, Zhongneng (power grid equipment), Zhenhua (chromium salt), Dazhong (lithium mine), Hangyu (aerospace), and Jize (green alcohol) convertible bonds led the gains, while Titan (solid - state battery), Hengshuai (robot), Jizhi (robot), Yuguang (precious metals), and Yinlun (robot & liquid cooling) convertible bonds led the losses [1][11]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 342.631 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 68.526 billion yuan, higher than the previous week [15]. Views and Strategies (2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14) - The equity market continued to drive convertible bonds upward last week. The market median remained at a high level around 132 yuan. The valuations of most convertible bonds in different parity ranges increased slightly, but the valuations of convertible bonds with parities above 130 were compressed, indicating that the follow - up ability of high - priced equity - biased varieties was generally limited at the current valuation level. The convertible bond ETF continued the net outflow trend since the end of last month [2][17]. - Looking ahead, the market has recently entered a relative vacuum period for listed company performance and important policies. Historically, the small - cap growth style has been relatively dominant, which is somewhat in line with the convertible bond style. However, the convertible bond holder structure data from the exchange in the past two months shows that institutions with absolute - return preferences such as insurance companies have shown obvious profit - taking behavior after the previous high increases in convertible bonds. Therefore, the short - term market may still present mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to high - growth sectors such as energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, and innovative drugs; sectors with improved supply - demand like photovoltaic and chemical industries; as well as high - dividend sectors such as banks and power, and look for layout opportunities in individual stocks with high volatility of the underlying stocks or low - premium equity - biased convertible bonds [2][17]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/07), for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 49.03%, 33.61%, 27.43%, 20.6%, 12.68%, and 10.31% respectively, at the 99%/100%, 92%/91%, 94%/95%, 92%/94%, 81%/72%, and 88%/79% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 5.5%, at the 0%/1% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 41.2%, at the 80%/72% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 0.72%, at the 75%/76% quantiles since 2010/2021 [18]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (2025/11/3 - 2025/11/7), Zhuomei Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 was listed [26][27]. - Zhuomei Convertible Bond (123260.SZ): The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei (301398.SZ), belonging to the automobile industry. As of November 7, its market value was 5.937 billion yuan. The company is a professional manufacturer of large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The issued convertible bond has a scale of 450 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and was announced for issuance on November 5. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be fully invested in the project of an annual production of 3 million sets of high - strength large - scale magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - Jinlang Zhuan 02 (123259.SZ): The underlying stock is Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), belonging to the power equipment industry. As of November 7, its market value was 34.114 billion yuan. The company is a high - tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production, sales, and service of string inverters for photovoltaic power generation systems. The issued convertible bond has a scale of 1.677 billion yuan, a credit rating of AA, and was listed on November 6. After deducting issuance fees, the funds will be invested in multiple projects including distributed photovoltaic power stations, high - voltage high - power grid - connected inverters, medium - and high - power hybrid energy - storage inverters, R & D centers, digital and intelligent upgrading, and working capital replenishment [27]. - As of the announcements on November 7, there are no convertible bonds scheduled for issuance or listing in the coming week (2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14). Last week, the listing committees approved two companies (Jinpankej and Shangtaikeji), the general meetings of shareholders approved two companies (Huatongxianlan and Zhongqigufen), and the board of directors proposed plans for two companies (Haonenggufen and Fengmaogufen). There were no new companies approved for registration or accepted by the exchanges. Currently, there are 98 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 146.58 billion yuan, including 5 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.2 billion yuan and 7 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 6.29 billion yuan [28].