哈特内特表示，其 2026 年最看好的交易策略为做多债券、国际股票与黄金。自 2024 年末开始，他便持 续看好国际股票，而此后美国股市表现疲软，也印证了这一判断的前瞻性。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭明煜 美国银行策略师指出，全球股市现超买预警信号，各移动平均线指标已触及历史上风险资产的抛售阈 值。 以迈克尔・哈特内特为首的策略团队在研报中称，截至 1 月 28 日的一周，明晟（MSCI）旗下 89% 的 股指均站上 50 日和 200 日移动平均线，突破了该行认定为抛售信号的 88% 临界值。 美银策略师表示，在股市持续走高的背景下，投资者的仓位已处于高位，本周更是从股票基金撤出 154 亿美元资金，凸显市场谨慎情绪升温。1 月 27 日，明晟全球指数创下历史新高，且本月涨幅有望创下 2025 年 9 月以来的最佳表现。 哈特内特在研报中写道，美银多空指标仍显示投资者情绪处于 "极度" 看涨状态，尽管股票基金出现资 金外流，但全球股指的普涨行情以及稳健的信贷市场，迄今已抵消了这一影响。 同时，美银团队援引全球资金流向监测机构 EPFR 数据称 ...

格隆汇1月30日｜美国银行策略师表示，全球股市正发出超买警示，其移动平均线已达到历史上风险资 产的卖出信号水平。Michael Hartnett领导的团队在报告中写道，在截至1月28日的一周内，约89%的 MSCI股票指数处于50日和200日移动平均线之上。这突破了他们视为卖出信号的88%阈值。美银策略师 指出，在仓位过度扩张的同时，投资者在本周从股票基金中撤资154亿美元，这突显出在股市推高之 际，市场谨慎情绪正在增加。MSCI世界指数于1月27日创下历史新高，并有望创下自9月以来表现最强 劲的一个月。Hartnett写道，美银的牛熊指标仍显示出投资者的"极端"看涨情绪，因为全球股指的强劲 广度和稳健的信贷市场迄今抵消了股票资金的外流。Hartnett表示，他2026年最看好的交易是做多债 券、国际股票和黄金。自2024年底以来他对国际股票的偏好已被证明具有先见之明，因为美国股市的表 现相对落后。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that despite the "sell signal" from the Bull-Bear Indicator reaching a high of 9.0, the current market situation is unique due to the Trump administration's efforts to lower inflation and funding costs ahead of the midterm elections, prompting investors to adopt a strategy of "long boom" and "short bubble" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - Hartnett suggests that the correct strategy for Q1 2026 is "rotation rather than retreat," emphasizing the strength of global market breadth, with 98% of country indices above their 200-day moving averages [3]. - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to overheated AI concepts and instead increase holdings in value cyclical stocks, indicating a preference for sectors like banking, real estate, materials, and industrials [9][10]. - The recommended core allocation framework for 2026 is "Long BIG, Trading MID," which includes long positions in bonds, international equities, and gold, while trading mid-cap stocks and shorting investment-grade bonds and the dollar [3][9]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The current macroeconomic environment is heavily influenced by U.S. domestic politics, with Trump needing to lower inflation to improve his approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections [3][6]. - The administration's monetary policy aims to reduce funding costs through quantitative easing (QE) and other measures, while geopolitical policies focus on lowering oil prices and trade policies aim to reduce tariffs [6][12]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - There has been a record inflow of $148.5 billion into cash money market funds in the first week of 2026, indicating extreme market sentiment [6][8]. - Bank of America's private wealth clients have a portfolio allocation of 64.2% in equities, 17.6% in bonds, and 11% in cash, with a notable trend of buying high-dividend stocks and municipal bonds while selling bank loans and tech stocks [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Logic and Historical Context - Hartnett argues that the rationale for being long on bonds is driven by debt pressures that necessitate QE, as U.S. national debt is expected to increase by $1 trillion in the next 100 days [11]. - Historical data shows that gold has performed well following war outbreaks, suggesting a potential bullish outlook for gold as the dollar may shift from "exceptionalism" to "expansionism" [15].