Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their volatile trends. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed, including short - term operations, arbitrage strategies such as long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and long - rebar and short - iron ore strategies [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Friday, rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore closed down. At night, hot - rolled coils closed down while rebar and iron ore closed up [1] Important Information - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% (calculated on a comparable basis) [1] - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February [1] - Some ships from three countries were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On March 28, Iran agreed to let 20 more Pakistani ships pass through, allowed several Malaysian oil tankers stranded in the strait to pass, and Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its oil tankers [1] - On March 28, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched their first military operation in response to the escalating regional situation, using multiple ballistic missiles to strike "important military targets" in Israel [1] - On March 30, 2026, Tangshan, Handan, Cangzhou, Langfang, Baoding, Hengshui and other places lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [1] Market Logic - On the 27th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan, unchanged [1] - On the 27th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 785 yuan, down 3 yuan [1] - On the 27th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The total inventory of the two ports increased. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; at Qingdao Port was 830,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the total inventory was 1.3 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - Last week, rebar production decreased by 54,600 tons, apparent demand increased by 172,800 tons, and the inventory decreased by 275,000 tons (47,600 tons the week before last). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 54,000 tons, apparent demand increased by 31,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 80,200 tons (103,000 tons the week before last). Overall, the fundamentals of rebar were stronger than those of hot - rolled coils last week [1] - Last week, the daily output of molten iron was 2.31 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons. The profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a decrease of 1.4735 million tons from the previous week; at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 89.7856 million tons, a decrease of 0.555 million tons from the previous week [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average output of molten iron was 2.3109 million tons, an increase of 29,400 tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous week and 3.87 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 4.51 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will continue to fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar are 3000 and 3200 respectively; for hot - rolled coils are 3180 and 3350 respectively; for iron ore are 750 and 840 respectively [2] - For single - side trading, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For arbitrage, the strategy of long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be held cautiously. The closing price difference on Friday was 175. Conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions due to the weaker fundamentals of hot - rolled coils than rebar recently [2] - The ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.85. The strategy of long - rebar and short - iron ore is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short - term, and exit after the holiday [2]