Core Viewpoint - The large-scale influx of capital into the market has not yet arrived, with a significant peak in high-interest fixed deposits maturing in the next two years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A peak of over 11 trillion yuan in excess fixed deposits is expected to mature in 2025, followed by 4 trillion yuan in 2026, providing substantial potential funds for the market [1] - A "deposit activation" process has begun, driven by the concentration of maturing fixed deposits from Chinese households and enterprises [1] Group 2: Strategic Roadmap - Morgan Stanley proposed a three-phase roadmap to guide savings into the market by restoring confidence, reshaping inflation expectations, and reforming social security [1]

东吴证券研报称，从一般性存款向非银存款转化的贡献看，居民和企业存款"搬家"和银行同业业务共同 推动非银存款增加，从存款"搬家"驱动看，居民部门定期存款或是2025年7月至8月"资金入市"的主力， 2025年以来存款"搬家"更多表现为定期存款"活期化"，并且2025年至2026年定期存款仍处于活期化高峰 期，存款资金的具体流向还取决于风险偏好的变化，若股票市场赚钱效应继续提升，偏股型基金和混合 型基金收益率相比理财产品收益率优势继续提升，定期存款"活期化"或推动资金增配权益类资产，带动 股市流动性进一步向好。2025年至2026年将迎来高息定期存款的到期高峰、定期存款"活期化"或继续主 导一般性存款转化为非银存款。从非金融企业和居民部门新增定期存款的绝对规模来看，2022年至2023 年期间是存款定期化的高峰，随着2025年二季度再度落地"降准降息"以及风险资产预期回报率上升，居 民超额定期存款从6月末开始进入释放期，2025年7月至8月合计减少4,801亿元，然而大规模的定期存款 活期化或存款"搬家"高潮或尚未到来。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the potential influx of 160 trillion in household savings into the market, drawing parallels to the market conditions of 2007, indicating a cautious sentiment despite recent market gains [1][10] - It emphasizes the need for investors to be wary of common misconceptions during bull markets, which can lead to significant losses [3][10] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The report from Goldman Sachs suggests that 160 trillion in household savings could enter the market, which has led to a mixed sentiment among investors [1][2] - Despite a 17% rebound in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 outperforming global markets, recent market pullbacks have caused anxiety among investors [1] Group 2: Common Misconceptions - Four fatal illusions during bull markets are identified: 1. Holding stocks for gains without considering market reversals [3] 2. Pursuing hot stocks as a guaranteed opportunity, which often leads to losses [3] 3. The belief that strong stocks will always remain strong, as evidenced by significant declines in previously high-performing stocks [3] 4. The assumption that buying during a downturn guarantees profits, which can lead to further losses [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should focus on institutional data rather than short-term market fluctuations, as this can provide clearer insights into market trends [4][6] - A case study illustrates that understanding quantitative data can lead to better investment decisions, as demonstrated by the performance of two stocks over time [8] Group 4: Caution in Bull Markets - The article warns that bull markets can be dangerous for retail investors, especially when media hype surrounds significant capital inflows [10] - It stresses that the initial beneficiaries of large capital inflows are typically not retail investors, highlighting the importance of being informed and cautious [10]