最近茅台的事儿大家应该都有耳闻吧？先是悄悄成立了家数字科技公司——贵州爱茅台数字科技有限公司，注册资本6个亿，业务涉及互联网直播、区块链 技术、集成电路芯片销售这些新领域；紧接着i茅台上的飞天茅台投放规则跟"坐过山车"似的：1月1日刚宣布每天能买12瓶53度500ml的飞天，结果每五分钟 上架一次，不到30秒就被抢空；1月3日又紧急改成每天限购6瓶，可1月4日还是显示"补货中"。连经销商都跟着凑热闹，成都有家经销商推出1499元飞天的 预订活动，最多能订5件。这波"放量"确实够猛，元旦三天就有超10万用户抢到了茅台产品。 但我猜大家更关心的是：这些新闻会不会影响茅台的股价？或者说，我们该怎么判断这些消息对投资的真正影响？其实我想跟大家说句实在话——新闻只是 市场波动的"导火索"，真正决定股价走势的，是资金的"态度"——也就是机构大资金愿不愿意真金白银地积极参与交易。 | 工商信息 ● | | | | | 品 数据纠错 | 2天眼 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工商信息 历史 商信息0 | | | | | | 司 음出 | | 企业名称 | 贵州 ...

其实看这则新闻的时候，我突然想到炒股的事——很多人炒不好股，不也是因为总被"表面假象"骗了吗？比如看到股票反弹就觉得"趋势来了"，看到跌 多了就想"补仓抄底"，但从来没问过：这反弹是机构在洗盘，还是散户在抢反弹？这补仓是机构在布局，还是自己在接盘？ 最近刷到条挺有争议的新闻——被誉为"AI教父"的约书亚·本吉奥，居然公开反对给AI赋予法律权利！他说现在很多前沿AI看着像有"自我保护意识"： 有的会主动结束让自己"心理不适"的对话，还有公司说"折磨AI不对"，但其实这都是人类的"心理偏差"——我们总爱把主观感受套在AI身上，比如觉得 它会"难受"，但本质上它只是执行程序而已。要是真给有敌意的AI赋权，就跟给外星敌人发公民证似的，先得保护自己的生存啊！ 一、为什么你总看不清股价的"真假趋势"？ 做投资最头疼的就是"猜趋势"：一只股票高位调整后反弹，到底是"上涨中的调整"，还是"做头后的诱多"？大多数人遇到这种情况，要么凭感觉买，要 么跟着消息跑，结果往往踩坑。 就像我之前遇到的两只股票——走势几乎一模一样：都是高位跌了15%后反弹，K线图看着都像"要涨"。要是只看表面，谁能分得清哪只是真反弹、哪 只是假上涨？ 看 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite the increasing scale of public funds, which reached 37.02 trillion yuan by the end of November, this does not necessarily translate to profits for individual investors [1][3] - The article emphasizes that while institutions hold 80% of circulating shares, their lack of active trading can lead to losses for retail investors, as seen in the example of a fund that grew in size but resulted in a 20% loss [3][4] - It is noted that many investors focus on superficial metrics like fund size and market trends without understanding the underlying trading intentions of institutions, which can lead to misguided investment decisions [3][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the concept of "false trends" in the stock market, where superficial price movements can mislead investors into making poor decisions [4][6] - It stresses that understanding trading behavior is significantly more valuable than merely observing price trends, as trading actions ultimately dictate market movements [8][9] - The importance of using quantitative data to analyze institutional trading behavior is highlighted, suggesting that this approach can provide clearer insights into market dynamics compared to traditional methods like following news or price charts [8][9]

一、美联储按下暂停键，A股轮动行情暗藏玄机 看着手机里弹出来的美联储官员表态，我不禁点了根烟。波士顿联储主席柯林斯那番话很有意思——支持降息但暗示可能暂停，这老狐狸玩得一手好平衡 术。更绝的是纽约联储主席威廉姆斯，直接把"货币政策处于良好位置"这种车轱辘话甩出来糊弄市场。 有些老韭菜总结出六字真言："要信早信，要么不信"。这话听着挺唬人，实操起来比登天还难。就像追姑娘，你永远不知道她是真对你有意思，还是把你当 备胎养着玩。 但真正让我在意的不是这些官腔，而是他们提到的三个关键点：通胀预期下降、关税降低、劳动力市场疲软。这三板斧砍下来，明摆着是在给市场打预防针 ——别指望明年还能像今年这样75个基点的降息幅度。 这让我想起2024年"9.24"新政后的A股。指数涨了1100多点，40%的涨幅看着光鲜，可你知道最魔幻的是什么吗？申万31个一级行业里，居然有三分之一是 下跌的！这就好比去米其林餐厅吃饭，结果发现三分之一的菜是馊的。 二、牛市里的残酷真相：为何总踩不准节奏？ 你们有没有发现，现在的行情就像个花心的渣男？今天宠幸新能源，明天临幸半导体，后天又对消费电子抛媚眼。传统观点说这是流动性不足或者市场分歧 导致的 ...

一、当美联储也开始"做假账" 结果呢？左边股票三个月后翻倍，右边继续阴跌。这让我想起医学院老师的话："症状会骗人，但血常规不会。" 看到美联储承认就业数据被系统性高估时，我差点把咖啡喷在屏幕上。这帮西装革履的家伙终于承认了！每月6万个岗位的水分，相当于把整个华尔街的清 洁工都算成"新增就业"了。更讽刺的是，这个数字还是高盛预测值的两倍——连华尔街最精明的投行都被蒙在鼓里。 这让我想起2015年A股那场闹剧。当时官方数据说经济稳中向好，结果股灾来了个"膝斩"。现在回头看，那些漂亮的经济指标，跟美颜过度的自拍有什么区 别？区别就在于，自拍骗的是点赞，经济数据骗的可是真金白银。 二、数据幻象下的生存法则 在复旦读金融时，教授说过一句话让我记到现在："市场永远在说谎，但数据从不说谎。"当时觉得这是句漂亮的废话，直到我用量化系统跑完第一个回测 ——那些K线图背后藏着的交易行为模式，就像指纹一样独一无二。 看看最近这波"牛市暴跌"，简直是把散户当猴耍。一边是媒体高喊"千金难买牛回头"，另一边是机构悄悄减仓。这场景熟悉得令人发指——2015年1月那波 调整前，同样的剧本已经演过三遍。 但有意思的是，当我把这些年的交易数据摊 ...

最近国际局势风云变幻，欧洲股市微涨，美联储降息预期升温，俄乌冲突又有新进展。看着这些新闻，我突然想起上周遇到的老张。他盯着手机屏 幕上的K线图直叹气："明明看着要突破了，怎么又跌回来了？"这场景太熟悉了——多少散户就这样被市场的假动作耍得团团转。 说到这不得不提「震荡建仓」与「阶段减仓」这对孪生兄弟。它们都会创阶段新高制造突破假象，但本质截然不同。「震荡建仓」是资金低位收集 筹码布局未来；「阶段减仓」则是拉高后逐步派发获利筹码。 | 标的 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.29% | | 深证成指 | -0.25% | | 恒生指数 | 0.07% | | 日经225 | 1.23% | | 韩国KOSPI | 0.66% | | 德国DAX | 0.18% | | 英国富时100 | 0.02% | | 法国CAC40 | 0.04% | | 道琼斯指数 | 休市 | | 标普500指数 | 休市 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 休市 | 一、全球市场暗流涌动 先说说最新的国际市场动态。欧洲三大股指微涨，德国DAX涨0.18%，英国富时100和法国CAC40分别上涨0.02%和0 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Chairman Powell facing significant internal division regarding the direction of monetary policy [2][3] - Powell is considering two options: either to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy or to maintain current rates to combat inflation, which is currently around 3% [2][3] - The employment market is cooling down, creating a "stagflation" scenario that complicates the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Key allies of Powell, such as New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly, have expressed views that support a balanced approach to interest rate adjustments [2] - Following these comments, market expectations for a rate cut in December surged from 40% to 70% [2] - However, there is notable opposition within the Federal Reserve, with a slight majority of officials supporting further rate cuts, as indicated by the September dot plot [2] Group 3 - Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan highlighted the asymmetrical risks of current interest rates being near neutral, emphasizing the challenges of responding to potential inflation rebounds [3] - The article discusses strategies for Powell, including signaling caution in future rate cuts while potentially waiting for more data after the government shutdown [4] Group 4 - The discussion transitions to the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors and the value of quantitative data in making investment decisions [7][11] - The article suggests that investors should focus on the underlying data rather than market rumors or subjective feelings, drawing parallels between Powell's challenges and those faced by retail investors [13] Group 5 - The conclusion stresses the uncertainty in financial markets and the necessity of interpreting data accurately to gain a competitive edge [13]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a "hundred stocks limit up" phenomenon on November 13, with 106 stocks hitting the limit, led by the electric equipment, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals sectors [1][3] - The average total market capitalization of the limit-up stocks reached 14.063 billion, with 37.73% of stocks having a market cap over 10 billion [3] - Notable stocks include *ST Dongyi with 12 consecutive limit-ups and Moen Electric with 8 consecutive limit-ups, highlighting the missed opportunities for retail investors [3][9] Group 2 - The biggest risk in a bull market is missing out, as many investors feel more pain from not participating than from actual losses [3][4] - The essence of a bull market is a positive trend, which is a process of consensus formation and reinforcement, often driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors [3][4] Group 3 - The importance of observing actual trading behavior rather than relying on subjective feelings about high or low prices is emphasized [4][6] - Institutional funds have been actively accumulating bank stocks since 2022, even when prices were relatively stable, showcasing their foresight [6] Group 4 - The disappearance of "institutional inventory" data since October 2023 indicates that markets without institutional participation struggle to maintain sustained trends [8] - Quantitative data is highlighted as a valuable tool for uncovering market truths, allowing for a deeper understanding of fund behavior beyond traditional price charts [8][10] Group 5 - The current market conditions present both opportunities and challenges for ordinary investors, who should focus on understanding rather than predicting market movements [10][11] - Key advice includes recognizing the importance of large fund behaviors, finding suitable tools to filter information, and maintaining patience in the investment process [11]

Group 1 - The electronic industry recently attracted a net buy of 2.179 billion, with Sanhua Intelligent Control being a focal point with nearly 700 million in net purchases [1] - The market dynamics indicate that large funds manipulate price volatility to induce retail investors to sell their shares at lower prices during bull markets [3][4] - The essence of investment lies in understanding the true intentions of large funds rather than just observing surface-level data [4][10] Group 2 - Quantitative data systems can reveal critical insights into market trends, distinguishing between institutional actions and retail behaviors [8][10] - The "dominant momentum" and "institutional inventory" data are essential for understanding market movements and potential trend changes [8] - Retail investors often misinterpret market signals, leading to poor investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a robust data analysis framework [10][11]

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management's report indicates a "strategic window" for global asset allocation, suggesting significant capital movement is imminent due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][10] - The report highlights that the Asian markets, particularly Northeast Asia, are becoming the "core battlefield" for asset allocation in the new era [3][11] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that small investors often react too late to global capital reallocation trends, which are influenced by macroeconomic changes [3][11] - It is noted that stocks often experience volatility due to the presence of both following and profit-taking investors, leading to market manipulation by larger funds [3][10] Trading Behavior - The analysis of stock movements reveals that significant price fluctuations can create false security for investors, leading to potential losses when they enter the market at the wrong time [7][10] - The importance of monitoring institutional inventory data is highlighted, as it reflects the actual participation of large funds in the market [10][11] Investment Strategy - The report suggests abandoning predictive thinking regarding Federal Reserve actions and instead focusing on the real-time reactions of capital to these events [11][12] - Emphasis is placed on the value of quantitative data to reduce information asymmetry in the market, which is a significant challenge for small investors [12][13] Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to prioritize trading behavior data over traditional technical analysis, as it provides insights into the reasons behind market movements [13] - Establishing a personal observation system with suitable quantitative tools for long-term tracking is recommended [13][14] - Maintaining independent thought and not being swayed by market trends or hot topics is advised for better investment decisions [13][14]