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工业硅:情绪较浓,盘面波动放大,多晶硅:本周消息面扰动增加
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].