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工业硅:盘面底部支撑明显多晶硅:关注仓单后续变化
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 03:42
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents the fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost, as well as macro and industry news and trend strength [1][2][3]. Detailed Summaries 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2601: The closing price is 8,940 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 compared to T - 1, -140 compared to T - 5, and 235 compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 214,012 lots, and the open interest is 262,676 lots [1]. - PS2601: The closing price is 53,315 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 187,876 lots, and the open interest is 128,427 lots [1]. 2. Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies depending on the benchmark, such as +560 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +10 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), and -40 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium or discount against N - type re - feed is -1,315 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52,250 yuan/ton [1]. - Organic silicon: DMC price is 13,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum alloy: ADC12 price is 21,350 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Profit - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2,329.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -3,576 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - DMC enterprise: The profit is 1,322 yuan/ton [1]. - Regenerated aluminum enterprise: The profit is -10 yuan/ton [1]. 5. Inventory - Industrial silicon: Social inventory is 54.8 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, industry inventory is 72.6 million tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory is 20.8 million tons [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 27.1 million tons [1]. 6. Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore: Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [1]. - Washed coking coal: Ningxia is 1,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Petroleum coke: Maoming coke is 1,400 yuan/ton, and Yangzi coke is 2,340 yuan/ton [1]. - Electrode: Graphite electrode is 12,450 yuan/ton, and carbon electrode is 7,200 yuan/ton [1]. 7. Macro and Industry News - As of the end of October 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power is 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%, and the installed capacity of wind power is 0.59 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment is 2,619 hours, 260 hours lower than the same period last year. In October, the new installed capacity of solar power is 12.6 million kilowatts, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% [2]. 8. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon: The trend strength is 0. - Polysilicon: The trend strength is 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].
工业硅:情绪提振,盘面亦有抬升,多晶硅:关注本周政策端发酵情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 02:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of industrial silicon is boosted, and the futures market has also risen [1]. - Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation of polysilicon this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price is 9,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 215 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 289,712 lots, and the open interest is 220,662 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price is 54,990 yuan/ton, with a change of 635 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 307,284 lots, and the open interest is 118,430 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +180 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycling) is -2990 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type recycling material is 52,350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is -2099.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) is -3038 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 7.9 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 55.9 million tons, and the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 16.8 million tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 25.8 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and the price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton. The price of petroleum coke (Maoming coke) is 1400 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 28, the State Grid New Energy Cloud announced the bidding results of Jiangxi's mechanism electricity price. A total of 433 projects were short - listed, including 429 photovoltaic projects with a mechanism electricity price of 0.33 yuan/kWh and a mechanism electricity volume of 130,566.325 MWh; 4 wind power projects with a mechanism electricity price of 0.375 yuan/kWh and a mechanism electricity volume of 461,741.962 MWh. The total bidding electricity volume is 1.16 billion kWh, with 0.59 billion kWh for photovoltaic and 0.57 billion kWh for wind power. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.38 yuan/kWh, and the lower limit is 0.24 yuan/kWh, with an implementation period of 10 years [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4].
工业硅:仓单继续去化,底部较有支撑,多晶硅:情绪发酵,管住本周政策情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:28
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decline, with Strong Support at the Bottom; Polysilicon: Sentiment is Fluctuating, Monitor This Week's Policy Situation" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the bottom is well - supported; for polysilicon, sentiment is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to this week's policy situation [1][2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2601 closing price is 8,965 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 198,198 lots and an open interest of 201,518 lots; PS2601 closing price is 54,500 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 238,898 lots and an open interest of 105,877 lots [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +385 yuan/ton; polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 2000 yuan/ton [2] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton; the price of polysilicon - N - type recycled material is 52980 yuan/ton [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2304.5 yuan/ton; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.5 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.9 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 25.8 million tons [2] Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton [2] Organic Silicon - The price of DMC is 11000 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is - 910 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is 21200 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 40 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On October 26, the National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - September. In September, the monthly new photovoltaic installation was 9.66GW, a 31.25% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative new photovoltaic installation was 240.27GW [2] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]
工业硅:弱势震荡,多晶硅:关注政策实际落地节点
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:44
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Industry investment ratings for industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Industry investment ratings for polysilicon: Focus on the actual implementation nodes of policies [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides fundamental data on industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, inventories, and raw material costs [2] - On October 16, Guangdong Power Trading Center issued two rules related to the sustainable development price settlement mechanism for new energy projects in Guangdong [4] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 closing price is 8,430 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan from T - 1; PS2511 closing price is 52,340 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts**: Industrial silicon spot premiums vary by type, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is - 325 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52800 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventories**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 56.2 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory is 25.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with some showing price changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Guangdong Power Trading Center issued rules for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism of new energy projects, with the first bidding transaction to be held in Q4 2025 [4] 3. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral market view [4]
工业硅:弱势震荡趋势,多晶硅:关注今日会议内容,盘面偏强运行-20251016
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:01
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Polysilicon's futures market is running strongly, and attention should be paid to the content of today's meeting [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan compared to T - 5 and 250 yuan compared to T - 22; the trading volume is 225,068 lots, showing a decreasing trend; the open interest is 142,381 lots, also decreasing [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 50,865 yuan/ton, an increase of 875 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 276,176 lots; the open interest is 80,114 lots [2]. - **Basis**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks, such as +830 yuan/ton for East China Si5530 and +330 yuan/ton for East China Si4210 [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment is +1385 yuan/ton [2]. - **Prices**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,850 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material is 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new standard 553 silicon plant is - 2,699.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3,638 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory is 71.3 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: - Industrial silicon: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [2]. - Polysilicon: The prices of related products such as trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are provided [2]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 11,300 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 830 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 21,050 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 130 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 15, 2025, the State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced the results of the competitive bidding for the mechanism electricity price of incremental new energy projects in 2025. The mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a scale of 18,539,219,756 kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a scale of 3,608,399,178 kWh [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].
7部门联合发布石化化工稳增长方案,这些企业受益
第一财经· 2025-09-28 11:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recently released "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at addressing challenges such as intensified competition in the organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The plan targets an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and promoting cooperation [3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition, insufficient supply of high-end chemicals, and a slowdown in domestic demand growth, prompting the need for a comprehensive growth plan [3]. - The plan includes ten key tasks focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and cooperation to enhance the industry's competitiveness [3]. - The elimination of outdated production capacity is expected to optimize supply-side dynamics and improve overall competitiveness in the petrochemical sector [3]. Group 2: Refining Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of 2024, China's refining capacity reached 955 million tons per year, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity under 1 billion tons by 2025 [4]. - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with facilities below 2 million tons per year being phased out, and new integrated refining projects coming online, such as the 20 million tons per year project by Yulong Petrochemical [5]. - The capacity utilization rate in the chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Strategic Focus - The petrochemical industry has experienced a decline in profitability, with major private refining companies reporting a nearly 40% drop in net profits in the first half of the year [6]. - The plan emphasizes "controlling increments" and suggests focusing on high-value-added sectors to enhance supply in high-end markets, particularly in integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment [6]. - Companies that have already positioned themselves in high-value sectors, such as renewable energy materials, are expected to benefit from the market dynamics, with firms like Dongfang Shenghong seeing profit growth due to their investments in solar-grade EVA products [7].
7部门联合发布石化化工稳增长方案,哪些企业受益
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 10:34
Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is facing challenges such as intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1] - The plan emphasizes the need to strictly control new refining capacity and rationally determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity, while preventing overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry. It supports the transformation of old petrochemical facilities and the industrialization of new technologies [1][3] - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with refining capacities below 2 million tons/year being phased out. Major projects such as the 20 million tons/year integrated refining and chemical project by Yulong Petrochemical and the 6 million tons/year expansion project by Daxie Petrochemical are coming online, further accelerating the market reshuffle [3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is experiencing severe homogenization issues, with a significant increase in production capacity leading to limited profit margins. The capacity utilization rate in the chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year [5] - The petrochemical industry has seen a rapid development over the past decade, with new integrated refining and chemical facilities being continuously put into operation. However, this has led to "involution" competition, where production increases do not translate into profit growth. Major petrochemical products have seen capacity and output increases of over 50% in the past five years, resulting in declining profitability for companies [5] - The growth stabilization plan suggests focusing on high value-added areas to enhance high-end supply, targeting key industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment. Companies with early layouts in high value-added fields are expected to benefit [6]
工业硅:关注市场情绪,多晶硅:仓单去化
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals, news, and trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing data on prices, volumes, inventories, and other indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon Si2511: The closing price was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,687 lots, up 76,381 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 285,490 lots, down 25,607 lots from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon PS2511: The closing price was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 253,135 lots, down 76,477 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots from T - 1 [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 was +445 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against East China Si4210 was -105 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against Xinjiang 99 silicon was -105 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was -1105 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.3 Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 was 9950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 52600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was -2366 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1; in Yunnan (new standard 553) was -3311 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 17.5 tons, and the industry inventory was 71.8 tons [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 21.9 tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5; in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 [1] - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In August, China's exports of photovoltaic cells not installed in modules or assembled into blocks were about 143477 million, a month - on - month increase of 37767.7 million (35.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 75696.1 million (111.7%) [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]
工业硅:短期基本面预期有所改善,多晶硅:短期市场情绪有所降温
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental outlook for industrial silicon has improved, while the short - term market sentiment for polysilicon has cooled down [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 9,305 yuan/ton, with a volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots. PS2511 closing price is 52,700 yuan/ton, with a volume of 329,612 lots and an open interest of 115,849 lots [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums or discounts vary when benchmarked against different products. For example, the premium against East China Si5530 is +445 yuan/ton. Polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - feed is - 1105 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52600 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2366 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3311 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 14.1 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 290 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1725 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.68 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.305 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.682 yuan/watt [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon Price and Profit - The price of DMC is 10800 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1123 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - The price of ADC12 is 20950 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 170 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the revenue level of new energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. In 2025, Hohhot plans to implement 107 key projects in the new energy industrial cluster with an investment of 96.9 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]
工业硅:逢高布空思路为主,多晶硅:短期情绪或有降温
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:48
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting industrial silicon at high prices and indicates that the short - term sentiment for polysilicon may cool down [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, profit, and raw material costs, and also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 (industrial silicon) had a closing price of 8,905 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 280 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 475,698 lots, and the open interest was 285,052 lots. PS2511 (polysilicon) had a closing price of 53,205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 285 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 505 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 198,758 lots, and the open interest was 122,834 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different changes compared to different benchmarks. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 445 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 15 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 330 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 200 yuan compared to T - 5, and 100 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 1,050 yuan compared to T - 5, and 5,600 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,366 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 21.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Ningxia was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and up 130 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was officially put into operation, which can transmit 36 - 40 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, meeting 1/6 of Hunan's electricity demand. Sungrow provided 1.27GW high - power string inverters for the Ningxia photovoltaic base of the project [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].