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工业硅:情绪较浓,盘面波动放大,多晶硅:本周消息面扰动增加
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
工业硅:弱势格局,多晶硅:短期情绪继续降温
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:00
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].
工业硅:仓单去化,盘面表现抗跌,多晶硅:政策扰动加强,关注上方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:51
I. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. II. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market analysis of industrial silicon and polysilicon, covering aspects such as fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength. For industrial silicon, it shows characteristics of warehouse receipt de - stocking and a resilient performance in the futures market. For polysilicon, there is increasing policy interference, and the upside potential should be noted [2]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Market**: The Si2509 closing price is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,172,879 lots and a position of 336,274 lots. The PS2509 closing price is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,123,795 lots and a position of 172,564 lots. There are also data on spreads and cross - period costs for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts against different benchmarks (e.g., +470 yuan/ton against East China Si5530), and polysilicon has a spot premium and discount of - 7740 yuan/ton against N - type re - investment [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 10,100 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,300 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 46,000 yuan/ton. There are also price data for related products in the polysilicon (photovoltaic) and other industries [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 1,511 yuan/ton and - 3,384 yuan/ton respectively for the new standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 18.1 yuan/kg, and there are profit data for DMC and ADC12 enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 53.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 24.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with price changes over different time periods [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The 21.6MW centralized photovoltaic power generation project of Dongfang Hope Zhundong Industrial Park's thermal power plant has been officially connected to the grid. It can generate over 31 million kWh of electricity annually, replace about 9,400 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 25,000 tons, contributing to the regional green power supply and the "dual - carbon" goal [3][4]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating different market outlooks for the two [4].
工业硅:关注上游复产进度,多晶硅:行业会议召开,关注行情波动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news, and provides trend intensity indicators for industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2509's closing price was 9,525 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 1,681,997 lots, and the open interest was 334,776 lots. For polysilicon, PS2509's closing price was 50,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 975 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 1,246,241 lots and an open interest of 165,641 lots [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,300 yuan/ton, also up 300 yuan. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 1,676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan from T - 1. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan from T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 18.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.7 million tons, with a decrease of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 17.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared to T - 5. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) was 72.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons compared to T - 5. The futures warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 25.1 million tons, unchanged from T - 1. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 24.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of silicon ore in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton, also unchanged compared to T - 5. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On July 21st, the Guizhou Energy Bureau issued the "Guizhou Province Power Demand Response Trading Scheme", which clarifies market participants, trading varieties, and price mechanisms. Market participants include industrial and commercial adjustable loads, energy storage, virtual power plants, and electric vehicle charging facilities, etc. [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]
工业硅:关注供应端变化情况,多晶硅:政策扰动,盘面波动放大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:32
Report Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, and inventory. It also mentions macro and industry news, such as the termination of several photovoltaic EPC projects due to policy impacts, and provides trend strength indicators for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][3]. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Si2509: The closing price was 8,415 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 435 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 855 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 953,544 lots, a decrease of 515,042 lots from T - 1, an increase of 83,424 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 453,587 lots from T - 22. The open interest was 367,810 lots, a decrease of 13,427 lots from T - 1, a decrease of 22,832 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 220,774 lots from T - 22 [1]. - PS2508: The closing price was 41,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 5,820 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 878,217 lots, a decrease of 136,350 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 361,634 lots from T - 5. The open interest was 85,925 lots, a decrease of 12,676 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 8,591 lots from T - 5 [1]. Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on the benchmark. For example, the spot premium for industrial silicon against East China Si5530 was +395 yuan/ton, up from 185 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type recycled material was +5145 yuan/ton, up from - 2,670 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 1, T - 5, and 700 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled material was 46000 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, an increase of 10000 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 9500 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 149 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1004 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 120 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 970 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 1.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 5.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 3.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 2.1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.60 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 6.5 million tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory was 72.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.70 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8.58 million tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 4.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 27.6 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On July 10, the State Energy Group issued termination announcements for three photovoltaic EPC projects with a total scale of 352MW due to the impact of national new - energy policies. The Jiangsu Nantong 100,000 - kilowatt household - used distributed photovoltaic project was terminated because it could not meet the profit requirements of Longyuan Group under the influence of the new - energy project market entry policy. Previously, the 300MW distributed photovoltaic EPC project of Gangneng (Zhenxiong) New Energy Co., Ltd. was also terminated [1][3]. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend. - Polysilicon trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
工业硅:仓单持续去化,关注上方空间,多晶硅:上游复产,盘面下跌
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Industrial Silicon: Continuous Decline in Warehouse Receipts, Focus on Upside Potential" - Date: June 19, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a trend of continuous decline in warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to its upside potential. The polysilicon market experiences a decline in the futures market due to upstream复产 [1][2]. - The US Senate Finance Committee's draft legislation on the "One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)" has brought policy uncertainty to the US photovoltaic market, affecting the polysilicon and related industries [2][4]. 3. Industry Data Summaries 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2509: The closing price is 7,425 yuan/ton, with a change of -135 yuan/ton compared to T - 5 and -720 yuan/ton compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 451,986 lots, and the open interest is 317,763 lots [2]. - PS2507: The closing price is 33,370 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan/ton from T - 1 and 885 yuan/ton from T - 5. The trading volume is 94,724 lots, and the open interest is 30,435 lots [2]. 3.2 Basis and Price - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 is +650 yuan/ton. The prices of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210 remain unchanged compared to T - 1, at 8,150 yuan/ton and 9,900 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - feedstock is +2,130 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - feedstock is 35,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from T - 5 and 3,250 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. 3.3 Profit - Silicon plant profit: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 3,786 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 6,938 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon enterprise profit: - 5.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.4 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from T - 5 and 2.7 million tons from T - 22. The enterprise inventory is 23.6 million tons, and the industry inventory is 80.8 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from T - 5 and 2.5 million tons from T - 22 [2]. 3.5 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang is 385 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 360 yuan/ton [2]. - Washed coal: The price in Xinjiang is 1,290 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 900 yuan/ton [2]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke is 1,400 yuan/ton, and Yangzi coke is 1,760 yuan/ton [2]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes is 10,990 yuan/ton, and carbon electrodes is 6,850 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 10,650 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 1,427 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 20,150 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 750 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Macro and Industry News - The US Senate Finance Committee released the draft of the "One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)". Under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the 48E clause will continue to provide a 100% investment tax credit (ITC) for photovoltaic projects using domestic components, but the credit rate will gradually decrease for projects starting in 2026 and later, and will end after 2027 [2][4]. 5. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1 - Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 - The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]
工业硅:以空配思路为主,多晶硅:现货弱势,盘面具下行驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:30
Report Investment Rating - The investment approach for industrial silicon is mainly short - position allocation, and the spot price of polysilicon is weak with a downward driving force in the futures market [1] Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions an Iraqi solar power project and the trend strength of both products [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2507's closing price is 7,455 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume is 309,628 lots, a decrease of 190,329 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest is 121,504 lots, a decrease of 25,532 lots compared to T - 1. For polysilicon, PS2507's closing price is 33,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume is 65,591 lots, a decrease of 14,270 lots compared to T - 1, and the open interest is 61,698 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots compared to T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +670 yuan/ton, compared to 65 yuan/ton in T - 1. The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - feeding) is - 690 yuan/ton, compared to - 390 yuan/ton in T - 1 [1] - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 is 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material is 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 3,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 5.0 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons compared to T - 5. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 27.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons compared to T - 5 [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1] Macro and Industry News - Iraq's Ministry of Electricity is negotiating with Saudi ACWA Power and UAE Masdar to build solar power plants in Iraq, with a total planned project capacity of 2GW. This cooperation will help Iraq achieve its renewable energy target in the "2030 Energy Strategy" and reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels [1][3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is also - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]
工业硅:库存累库,盘面继续下行,多晶硅:以逢高布空思路为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 04:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the futures market continues to decline. For polysilicon, the recommended strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2507) has a closing price of 7,160 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, 755 yuan compared to T - 5, and 1,620 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume is 456,239 lots, down 83,444 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 208,497 lots, down 15,649 lots from T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2507) has a closing price of 35,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan compared to T - 1, and a decrease of 490 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume is 150,575 lots, an increase of 5,236 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 77,400 lots, down 871 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract for industrial silicon is -20 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short spread is 46.3 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the spread is 1795.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot premium of industrial silicon (against different grades) shows various changes, while the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) is -895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit**: - The price of industrial silicon in different regions (e.g., East China's oxygen - passing Si5530 at 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan's Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton) and polysilicon (N - type recycled material at 36500 yuan/ton) has different trends. - The profit of silicon plants (e.g., Xinjiang's new standard 553 at -4108 yuan/ton, Yunnan's new standard 553 at -7369 yuan/ton) and polysilicon enterprises (-4.9 yuan/kg) also shows different changes [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 23.8 million tons, and industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 82.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 31.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons compared to T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, Xinjiang's silicon ore is 400 yuan/ton, and its price has decreased by 20 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry Chain**: - The prices of products in the polysilicon photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also show different degrees of decline. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.94 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.24 yuan compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Prices and Profits in Other Related Industries**: - In the organic silicon industry, the price of DMC is 11450 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is -135 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy industry, the price of ADC12 is 20200 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is -90 yuan/ton [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation 2×660MW ultra - supercritical unit has completed the blow - pipe work on May 4, 2025, and successfully carried out the first impulse on May 27, 2025, and is now capable of generating electricity. The 2 unit is under construction, and after the two units are put into operation, the annual power generation will be nearly 7.5 billion kWh [2][4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
工业硅:盘面再创新低,以逢高布空为主,多晶硅:现货弱势,盘面亦表现偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the futures price hits a new low, and it is advisable to short at high prices; for polysilicon, the spot market is weak, and the futures performance is also weak [1] - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2507 is 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1, and the closing price of PS2507 is 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +1190 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) is -1050 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8500 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type recycled material is 36500 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is -4057 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is -5.1 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.2 tons, and the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 26.0 tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 420 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrode is 11800 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Thailand's Investment Commission has introduced four measures to help Thai enterprises cope with US tariffs and external challenges, including stopping investment promotion incentives for oversupplied or trade - restricted industries and strengthening the review of key production processes in vulnerable industries [2][3]
每周股票复盘:东方盛虹(000301)2024年净利润增长19%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-24 12:58
Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, has experienced a decline in stock price but reported a 19% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by low oil prices and recovering demand for downstream chemical products [2][5]. Performance Disclosure Highlights - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit increased by 19%, attributed to low oil prices supporting operational costs and a recovery in demand and prices for some downstream chemical products [2][5]. - The company anticipates that oil prices will continue to stabilize at current levels, benefiting raw material cost support [2]. - The company plans to dynamically optimize product structure, adjust pricing based on market trends, and improve inventory turnover to ensure stable development [2]. Institutional Research Highlights - During the performance briefing on May 20, the company emphasized its commitment to sustainable development in the petrochemical industry, focusing on safety, integrity, innovation, and excellence [3]. - The company is advancing its industrial chain towards high-end, digital, and low-carbon development, contributing to high-quality industry growth [3]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company has developed photovoltaic-grade EVA and POE, with a current EVA production capacity of 500,000 tons per year and a POE facility expected to be operational by 2025 [3]. - The company holds a leading position in EVA production capacity and market share, benefiting from economies of scale in production and a strong integrated supply chain for upstream raw materials [3]. Company Announcement Summary - The announcement regarding the "Shenghong Convertible Bond" buyback indicated that only 19 units were effectively submitted for buyback, amounting to 1,904.86 yuan, which will not materially affect the company's financial status or operational capabilities [4][5].