2026 年 02 月 27 日 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,335 | -95 | -35 | -510 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 177,274 | 22,967 | 16,804 | -213,840 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 325,323 | 11,364 | 17,559 | 90,156 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 46,315 | -1,315 | -2,865 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,466 | 3,330 | 3,673 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 39,925 | 1,633 | 1,612 | - ...

2026 年 02 月 12 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,375 188,888 | -75 -11,212 | -440 -67,353 | -340 -256,687 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 303,387 | 8,477 | 68,587 | 63,683 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,950 | -420 | -1,050 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 3,991 | -715 | -14,306 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 38,617 | 270 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Dongfang Shenghong is expected to turn profitable in 2025 with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 100 million to 150 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [1][2]. - The company anticipates a substantial reduction in non-recurring losses, with estimates ranging from 5.62 billion to 5.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 78.82% to 80.71% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to show a net profit of -0.26 to 0.24 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year reduction in losses of 97.04% to 102.73% [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, with projections of 1.39 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.70 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 1026.4% in 2026 and 22.4% in 2027 [11][13]. Operational Stability - The stable operation of the 16 million tons/year integrated refining project is a key factor in the company's performance improvement, with smooth production and sales [2]. - The average price of WTI and Brent crude oil is expected to decline significantly, contributing positively to the company's refining margins [2]. By-Product Revenue - The company benefits from the largest atmospheric distillation unit in China, which includes a sulfur recovery unit, leading to unexpected revenue from sulfur and sulfuric acid due to rising market prices [3]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market prices for sulfur and sulfuric acid increased by 46.71% and 39.99% respectively compared to the second quarter, contributing significantly to the company's profits [3]. New Materials Business - The company's strategic shift towards high-value-added chemical intermediates is expected to enhance profitability, with the proportion of high-value products increasing from 50% to over 70% [10]. - The focus on new materials, particularly photovoltaic-grade EVA, is anticipated to drive future profit growth and valuation enhancement, benefiting from the global increase in solar installations [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Dongfang Shenghong is expected to turn profitable in 2025 with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 100 million to 150 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [1]. - The company anticipates a substantial reduction in non-recurring losses, with estimates ranging from 5.62 billion to 5.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 78.82% to 80.71% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to show a net profit of -0.26 to 0.24 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year reduction in losses of 97.04% to 102.73% [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in net profit for 2025, primarily driven by the stable operation of its 16 million tons/year integrated refining project and improved margins in the aromatics chain [2]. - The average price of WTI and Brent crude oil is projected to decline significantly, with year-on-year decreases exceeding 15% [2]. - The gradual appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the company's dollar-denominated crude oil procurement costs [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The profitability of the refining business is steadily improving, with a notable enhancement in the processing price difference of core downstream products like PTA [2]. - The average gross profit of PTA is expected to reach -31 yuan/ton by December 2025, with a significant narrowing of the decline [2]. - In January 2026, the average gross profit of PTA is projected to rise to 114.89 yuan/ton, indicating a positive trend [2]. By-Product Revenue - Dongfang Shenghong possesses the largest single-unit atmospheric distillation facility in China, which includes a sulfur recovery unit that converts hydrogen sulfide into elemental sulfur [3]. - The market prices for sulfur and sulfuric acid have surged since the second half of 2025, with average prices in Q4 increasing by 46.71% and 39.99% respectively compared to Q2 [3]. - Sulfur is expected to remain a significant profit contributor for the company in 2026 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company's long-term valuation will depend on the continuous optimization of high-value-added product structures and the penetration of new materials [10]. - The strategic shift from traditional low-value refined oil to high-value chemical intermediates has increased the output proportion of high-value, scarce chemical products from 50% to over 70% [10]. - The dual-driven strategy of "refining + new materials" is expected to enhance profitability and reduce reliance on oil price fluctuations [10]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.23 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.70 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 696.1, 61.8, and 50.5 for the years 2025 to 2027 [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Title: "Industrial Silicon: Inventory Accumulation, Monitor Warehouse Receipts; Polysilicon: Monitor Spot Transactions After the Festival" - Date: February 10, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Trend Intensities - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] Group 3: Core Views - For industrial silicon, pay attention to inventory accumulation and warehouse receipt situations - For polysilicon, focus on spot transactions after the festival - The "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2025 - 2026)" predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will be between 180GW and 240GW, a decline from 2025, and will return to an upward trend after 2027. The average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be between 238GW and 287GW [1][2][4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price: 8,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from T - 1, 345 yuan from T - 5, and 85 yuan from T - 22 - Si2605 trading volume: 200,100 lots, down 135,319 lots from T - 1, 266,625 lots from T - 5, and 466,015 lots from T - 22 - Si2605 open interest: 294,910 lots, up 17,899 lots from T - 1, 58,597 lots from T - 5, and 34,379 lots from T - 22 - PS2605 closing price: 49,370 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan from T - 1 and 2,320 yuan from T - 5 - PS2605 trading volume: 4,706 lots, down 5,977 lots from T - 1 and 13,083 lots from T - 5 - PS2605 open interest: 38,347 lots, up 413 lots from T - 1, down 1,931 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis and Price - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530): + 850 yuan/ton, up from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si4210): + 400 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Industrial silicon spot premium (against Xinjiang 99 silicon): + 250 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock): + 4380 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Xinjiang 99 silicon price: 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Yunnan Si4210 price: 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon - N - type recycled feedstock price: 53650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 1, 2350 yuan from T - 5, and down 1850 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553): - 2681.5 yuan/ton, down from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553): - 5874 yuan/ton, down from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon enterprise profit: 9.2 yuan/kg, up 0.5 yuan from T - 1, 0.6 yuan from T - 5, and down 1.0 yuan from T - 22 - DMC enterprise profit: 1980 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan from T - 1, 75 yuan from T - 5, and 368 yuan from T - 22 - Recycled aluminum enterprise profit: 250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1, up 100 yuan from T - 5, and 550 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory): 56.2 tons, up 0.8 tons from T - 5 and 1 ton from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises): 20.6 tons, down 0.30 tons from T - 5 and up 0.4 tons from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory): 76.8 tons, up 0.50 tons from T - 5 and 1.36 tons from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - futures warehouse receipt inventory: 8.4 tons, up 0.3 tons from T - 1, 0.9 tons from T - 5, and 3.0 tons from T - 22 - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory: 34.1 tons, up 0.8 tons from T - 5 and 3.9 tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: Xinjiang 320 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan 230 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, down 20 yuan from T - 22 - Washed coking coal: Xinjiang 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged - Petroleum coke: Maoming coke 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yangtze coke 1740 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from T - 5 and T - 22 - Electrodes: Graphite electrode 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Carbon electrode 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Photovoltaic and Related Products - Silicon powder (99 silicon): 9850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 50 yuan from T - 22 - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm): 1.48 yuan/piece, down 0.02 yuan from T - 1, 0.05 yuan from T - 5, and 0.20 yuan from T - 22 - Battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm): 0.44 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and down 0.83 yuan from T - 22 - Module (N - type - 210mm, centralized): 0.738 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.002 yuan from T - 5, and 0.038 yuan from T - 22 - Photovoltaic glass (3.2mm): 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and down 0.5 yuan from T - 22 - Photovoltaic - grade EVA price: 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 299 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - DMC price: 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22 - ADC12 price: 23650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1, down 200 yuan from T - 5, and 50 yuan from T - 22 [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for industrial silicon is not deep [1]. - The sentiment at the polysilicon industry conference is positive, which may boost the market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price is 8,850 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 208,226 lots and an open interest of 241,016 lots; PS2605's closing price is 51,195 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 13,013 lots and an open interest of 39,092 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +500 yuan/ton; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is +2555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 53500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2281.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5474 yuan/ton; the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton; Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton, Ningxia washed coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton; Maoming petroleum coke is 1400 yuan/ton, Yangzi petroleum coke is 2340 yuan/ton; graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.53 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.435 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1906 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23800 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Yunnan Province issued the "Implementation Rules of the <Eco - protection Compensation Regulations> of Yunnan Province", aiming to establish a power - generating enterprise feedback mechanism, extracting ecological protection compensation funds from hydropower and photovoltaic enterprises based on power generation, operating income, or carbon sink losses for ecological restoration and efficient water resource utilization [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 2. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Upstream production cuts in the industrial silicon sector have been implemented, providing support for prices. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions in the polysilicon market [1]. - In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. The growth rate was 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than that of infrastructure and manufacturing respectively. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking 1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 135 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 557,616 lots, with an increase of 257,384 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 327,652 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 175,201 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 236,627 lots, a decrease of 26 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 5,193 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 15,562 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price was 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 3,580 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 19,537 lots, an increase of 3,911 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 6,094 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 42,513 lots, a decrease of 232 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 1,222 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was +400 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was +3165 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 1.3 Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 51300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 2700 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1100 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon (photovoltaic): The prices of relevant products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 13900 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 24350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1950 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.4 Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2206.5 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5414 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The profit of DMC enterprises was 1830 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, a decrease of 46 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 101 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 420 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 290 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 20.9 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.3 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 76.3 tons, a decrease of 0.61 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.04 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 7.0 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 33.3 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.6 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke was 1400 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze coke was 2340 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes was 12450 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon electrodes was 7200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a press conference. In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year - on - year increase of nearly 11%. Five provinces (autonomous regions) including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu completed investments of over 200 billion yuan. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cuts, Focus on Inventory Changes; Polysilicon: Positive Conference Sentiment, Building Bottom Support for the Futures Market [1][2] - Analyst: Zhang Hang [2] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018008 [2] - Email: zhanghang2@gtht.com [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The upstream of the industrial silicon industry has cut production, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1] - The positive sentiment from the photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium provides bottom support for the polysilicon futures market [2][4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price is 8,925 yuan/ton, with a volume of 300,232 lots and an open interest of 236,653 lots [2] - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price is 49,335 yuan/ton, with a volume of 15,626 lots and an open interest of 42,745 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts show different spreads and basis values, such as the industrial silicon near - month contract to the continuous - first spread being - 45 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices and Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2206.5 yuan/ton and - 5414 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feedstock is 52500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 13900 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 24550 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum enterprise profit is - 310 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory is 55.4 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes and other raw materials in different regions are provided, with most remaining stable [2] Macro and Industry News - On January 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium, emphasizing "anti - involution" as the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's standard governance, and promoting the industry to return to a benign and rational development track [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the outlook of industrial silicon being in a state of upstream production cuts and range - bound oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,780 yuan/ton, with changes of 35 yuan from T - 1, 25 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 280,575 lots, down 57,731 lots from T - 1, up 34,639 lots from T - 5, and down 67,902 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 223,687 lots, down 865 from T - 1, down 11,402 from T - 5, and up 15,907 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,700 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1 and up 755 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 15,484 lots, up 5,369 lots from T - 1 and down 5,458 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,920 lots, up 288 from T - 1 and down 4,519 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +470 yuan/ton, with changes of -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22; against East China Si4210 is +70 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and 1,135 yuan from T - 22; against Xinjiang 99 silicon is -80 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -140 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +5050 yuan/ton, 0 from T - 1, -1,255 yuan from T - 5, and 11,895 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2351.5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 325 yuan from T - 5, and down 70 yuan from T - 22; (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5574 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 295 yuan from T - 5, and down 205 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 0.2 million tons from T - 22; enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.8 million tons, up 0.42 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22; industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from T - 5 and 2.25 million tons from T - 22; futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 1, 0.4 million tons from T - 5, and 1.6 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.8 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Yunnan is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Petroleum coke price: Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; Yangtze coke is 2340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Electrode price: graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price and Profit - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22; trichlorosilane is 3425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.68 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and up 0.20 yuan from T - 22; battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22; component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.003 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.024 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - Organic silicon DMC price is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22; DMC enterprise profit is 1954 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 124 yuan from T - 5, and up 264 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and up 2200 yuan from T - 22; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 610 yuan from T - 5, and up 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The battery end is still under cost pressure due to the rising silver price. The mainstream market quotation is 0.4 - 0.43 yuan/W, and some leading enterprises intend to raise the quotation to 0.45 yuan/W. The current mainstream domestic market transactions are concentrated at 0.4 - 0.41 yuan/W, and the latest overseas battery 183N transaction has reached 0.43 yuan/W due to the export tax policy [2][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [4]