1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, although the new jobs in the US employment data were lower than expected, the unemployment rate decreased. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela have increased the premium of resource products, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is high. On the supply side, new domestic and Indonesian production capacities continue to release increments, and Australia's Tomago aluminum plant may face the risk of non - renewal of power contracts in 2028. On the consumption side, the weekly aluminum processing operating rate remains low, and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics. Aluminum ingot inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventories increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. Affected by the macro - environment and capital rotation effect, aluminum prices have risen rapidly. The policy issued over the weekend indicates that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics after April may trigger a short - term rush in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a phased increase in sector consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. [3][8] - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy continued to decline to 58% due to repeated regional environmental protection controls and insufficient orders. On the consumption side, downstream buyers are clearly reluctant to buy at high prices, generally choosing to digest inventories, postpone purchases, or only maintain rigid demand, and some even plan to stop production early, resulting in light market transactions. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 334 tons to 70,000 tons. The pattern of weak supply and demand for cast aluminum continues, but cost support remains strong, so it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation. In the medium term, as the macro - bullish atmosphere is gradually digested and capital calms down, cast aluminum may enter a high - level consolidation stage. [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2,997 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 152 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price rose from 22,980 dollars/ton to 24,420 dollars/ton, an increase of 1,440 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from - 27.5 dollars/ton to 8.3 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 13,925 tons to 497,825 tons, while the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,407 tons to 90,912 tons. [5] - The spot average price rose from 22,370 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,490 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 210 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The South China storage spot average price rose from 22,293 yuan/ton to 23,876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,582.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 77 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.7 yuan/ton. [5] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 64.5 tons to 71.4 tons, an increase of 6.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 15,888.96 yuan/ton to 15,851.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.3 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 6,481.04 yuan/ton to 8,008.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,527.3 yuan/ton. [5] - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,450 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton, and the Baotai spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,000 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,761 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased from 3,084 yuan/ton to 3,836 yuan/ton, both with an increase of 752 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 334 tons to 69,922 tons. [5] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week. [6] - Macro - economically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data was released, the market expected that the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January was almost zero. [6] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The preliminary value of the eurozone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched services inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. [6][7] - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum - processing sectors were differentiated, but overall, it presented a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices became the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry's operating rate. [7] - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on January 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. [7] - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 2,761 yuan/ton, up 752 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum was 2,664 yuan/ton, up 548 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises last week decreased to 58% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 70,000 tons, up 334 tons from last Friday. [7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, for electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate favorably with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. For cast aluminum, it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation and may enter a high - level consolidation stage in the medium term. [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - Vietnam's first electrolytic aluminum project, the Dac Nong electrolytic aluminum plant project, is initially planned to be completed and put into production in early July 2026. [11] - Anhui Ruixing Metal Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build a project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of recycled aluminum, and the project is currently in the environmental impact report acceptance and publicity stage. [11] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. As of April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. [11][12] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME 3 - month aluminum and SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, inventory seasonal changes, and cast aluminum - related prices, refined - scrap price differences, and exchange inventories. [13][24][32]