1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the frequent news of peace talks between the US and Iran last week initially released market risk sentiment, but Iran denied the talks. The large differences in the peace agreement and the setback in the hope of de - escalating the Middle East situation have led to a resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment. The attack on Bahrain Aluminium has damaged its facilities, with the impact on production capacity unclear. Newly - invested capacities in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia continue to increase. The downstream operating rate has risen by 1.1% to 64%. Aluminum ingot inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, while aluminum rod inventory has decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. Overall, due to the severe damage to Bahrain Aluminium, the expectation of further production cuts is rising, and supply concerns may become the mainstream logic again. Aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week. The market sentiment may fluctuate between the recession risk brought by the tightening cycle and the supply disruption caused by the conflict, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [3][8]. - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy remained flat at 59.5%. The spot price of cast aluminum adjusted following the large fluctuations in aluminum prices, but the spot price of raw materials was relatively resistant to decline, compressing the profit of cast aluminum. Coupled with insufficient new downstream orders, the increase in the operating rate of cast aluminum enterprises was hindered. The large import loss made it difficult for imported goods to enter the market. The recovery in the consumption peak season was less than expected, and downstream procurement was highly sensitive to prices, with low inventory - building willingness and mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the cost support for cast aluminum has weakened slightly, but the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - side operating rate has not continued to rise, and the import window is not open, so the supply pressure is not large. However, consumption is also relatively weak, providing limited support for prices. Cast aluminum is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 - month contracts rose from 3,192 yuan/ton to 3,284.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 92.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts decreased from 24,085 dollars/ton to 24,025 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.5 to 7.3, a decrease of 0.2. The LME spot premium increased from 37.83 dollars/ton to 61.23 dollars/ton, an increase of 23.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 429,675 tons to 420,875 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 403,558 tons to 408,197 tons, an increase of 4,639 tons. The spot average price decreased from 24,546 yuan/ton to 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The spot premium/discount increased from - 160 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 24,548 yuan/ton to 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from - 2 yuan/ton to 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 133,900 tons to 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15,972.99 yuan/ton to 16,047.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.9 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 8,573.01 yuan/ton to 7,548.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,024.9 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,700 yuan/ton to 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased from 2,130 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 662 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai decreased from 3,313 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 555 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47,732 tons to 36,684 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton compared with last week. The weekly average price of the South China Storage spot was 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton compared with last week. - Macroscopically, US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service industries showed a differentiated trend: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service - industry PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The euro - zone S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped from 51.9 in February to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. The preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, a new high in 45 months, but the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI dropped from the previous value of 51.9 to 50.1, far lower than the expected 51.1. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum consumption, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 1% to 63.9%. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 662 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 555 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled - aluminum enterprises last week remained flat at 59.5% week - on - week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons compared with last Friday [6][7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for electrolytic aluminum, due to the situation of the US - Iran peace talks and the attack on Bahrain Aluminium, aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week and be strong but with large fluctuations. For cast aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. 3.4 Industry News - The second - quarter aluminum premium in Japan in 2026 (QMJP) is set at $350 - 353 per ton, with an average of $351.5 per ton, an increase of 80.27% compared with Q1. - The production capacity operation level of the San Ciprián smelter of Alcoa has reached 90% and is expected to reach full - load operation by the middle of this year. In 2021, the output of the San Ciprián smelter decreased due to high electricity prices. In April 2025, a large - scale power outage in Spain further disrupted the overall operation of the smelter and refinery. Before the production cut, the total annual production capacity of the smelter was 228,000 tons [11][12]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum month - to - month spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical trade seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes, cast aluminum futures price, cast aluminum spot price, refined - scrap price difference, and cast aluminum exchange inventory [14][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Currently, market concerns about demand due to recession and liquidity decline dominate, leading to a high - level correction in aluminum prices. However, supply - side factors such as domestic capacity constraints and overseas Middle - East production cut crises will provide a certain safety margin for aluminum prices and limit the adjustment space. In the medium - to - long term, after market sentiment clears, the price center still has room for upward adjustment [4][9]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The macro - logic has shifted to concerns about liquidity and recession, and the support from scrap aluminum has slightly weakened. Both supply and demand sides are cautious, resulting in a short - term adjustment of casting aluminum [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - **Price Changes**: The price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 3439 yuan/ton on March 13th to 3192 yuan/ton on March 20th, a drop of 247 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 25140 dollars/ton to 24085 dollars/ton, a drop of 1055 dollars/ton. The spot average price decreased from 25014 yuan/ton to 24546 yuan/ton, a drop of 468 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 41590 tons to 403558 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4.5 tons to 133.9 tons [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 9118.21 yuan/ton to 8573.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 545.2 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - environment**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, increasing geopolitical risks. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% and raised inflation and economic growth expectations. The US PPI in February increased significantly [7]. - **Domestic Economy**: From January to February, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value increased by 6.3%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries increased by 1% to 62.9%, and demand was slightly released. Consumption recovery varied among sectors [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: On March 19th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 4.5 tons to 133.9 tons, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 1.65 tons to 36.95 tons [8]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The SMM spot price of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, and the Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 24100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased to 59.5%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6579 tons to 4.8 tons [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the short term, market concerns about demand due to recession and liquidity decline lead to a high - level correction in aluminum prices. In the medium - to - long term, after market sentiment clears, the price center has room for upward adjustment [9]. - **Casting Aluminum**: The operating rate is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. Both supply and demand sides are cautious, resulting in a short - term adjustment [10]. 3.4 Industry News - In January - February 2026, China's scrap aluminum imports were about 32.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The main import source countries included Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US [11]. - In January - February 2026, China's primary aluminum imports totaled about 39.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The cumulative net import of primary aluminum was about 36.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [14]. - India's National Aluminum Company (NALCO) put a 130 kWp rooftop solar project into operation. It plans to add 50 - 60 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the project progress is limited by power plant construction [14]. - South 32 revised its Q2 2026 Japanese MJP CIF premium offer to 353 dollars/ton [14]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, and various inventory and price change charts, which visually show the market situation of aluminum [13][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core logic of the aluminum market still revolves around the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends and the scale of production cuts in the Middle East expands, the expectation of an overseas supply gap is continuously strengthening. Meanwhile, energy prices are pushing up costs, and aluminum prices will continue to be in a strong upward state [2][7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [2][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price increased from 3431 yuan/ton to 3439 yuan/ton, a rise of 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24845 dollars/ton to 25140 dollars/ton, a rise of 295 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.2 to 7.3, an increase of 0.1 [3]. - The LME spot premium decreased from 47.4 dollars/ton to 30.83 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16.6 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 456875 tons to 445300 tons, a decrease of 11575 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 329627 tons to 361968 tons, an increase of 32341 tons [3]. - The spot average price increased from 24298 yuan/ton to 25014 yuan/ton, a rise of 716 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot premium decreased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The South China storage spot average price increased from 24268 yuan/ton to 24956 yuan/ton, a rise of 688 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 30 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 125.6 tons to 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [3]. - The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15858.35 yuan/ton to 15895.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.4 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 8439.66 yuan/ton to 9118.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 678.6 yuan/ton [3]. - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24500 yuan/ton to 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3]. - The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24100 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2611 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai increased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton, an increase of 142 yuan/ton [3]. - The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 58729 tons to 54311 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons [3]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 25014 yuan/ton, an increase of 716 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 24956 yuan/ton, an increase of 688 yuan/ton compared with last week [4]. - In terms of the macro - situation, the US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "about to end". However, Iran's Supreme Leader Muqtada al - Sadr stated that Iran would not give up revenge and would continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The US CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. But the market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to support the Fed's decision on when to cut interest rates again [4]. - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year - on - year. In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3% [5]. - In the electrolytic aluminum consumption end, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate was 9%, showing a post - holiday recovery trend, with all lines increasing month - on - month, and the industry as a whole entered the normal production rhythm. High aluminum prices and macro - uncertainty are continuously suppressing the elasticity of demand release, and the quality of the traditional "Golden March" peak season remains to be seen [5]. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 12, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3.8 tons to 129.4 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum increased by 142 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.8% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 5.4 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons compared with last Friday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the Middle East conflict shows signs of turning into a protracted war, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Last week, a Qatari aluminum plant announced production cuts due to a natural gas shortage, and its production capacity has been reduced to 60%, with a reduction of about 25.9 tons. Some Iranian production capacities have carried out preventive production cuts, and Bahrain Aluminum announced a production cut of 31 tons of production capacity over the weekend, expanding the expected overseas supply gap. The domestic downstream operating rate after the holiday continued to rise by 2.4% to 61.9%. During the week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with last week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with before the holiday. Overall, the aluminum market will continue to be in a strong upward state [7]. - In the cast aluminum market, the operating rate of aluminum alloy last week increased by 2.5% to 58.8%, and enterprises continued to resume work and production, with the operating rate slowly recovering to the pre - holiday level. In terms of imports, the overseas ADC12 price has risen to around 3400 dollars/ton due to the increase in shipping costs, and the import loss has expanded to 1800 yuan/ton, so the supply pressure of domestic cast aluminum is not large. The consumer end is slowly resuming production and has limited acceptance of high prices, and the consumption recovery is slow. Overall, both supply and demand are in a wait - and - see state. On the cost side, scrap aluminum yards have resumed work, but the reverse invoicing policy has become stricter, and the increase in circulating supply is limited. Primary aluminum has risen rapidly due to the Middle East conflict, and scrap aluminum prices have followed the increase actively, strengthening cost support. Overall, the supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [8]. 4. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 43 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to February, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 97.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%, compared with 86.1 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Rio Tinto Group offered to provide Japanese buyers with aluminum ingots for the second quarter at a premium of 350 dollars/ton, up from the previous offer of 250 dollars/ton. The aluminum premium in Japan in the first quarter was 195 dollars/ton [12]. - Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a "standstill" in the shipment of aluminum products in the region. Mercuria, the world's largest independent integrated energy and commodity trading group, plans to urgently withdraw nearly 10 tons of aluminum from the London Metal Exchange (LME) storage facilities to ease the supply gap in the European and American markets [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of external sources on the domestic market is weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for high - price inventory is low, with procurement mainly for replenishing rigid - demand stocks. Overall, supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, and cost support is falling from a high level. - In the alumina market, short - term supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and the supply - demand relationship has reached a short - term balance, supporting short - term price stability. In the medium to long term, ore supply is abundant, cost support is weakening, and new production capacity plans from March to June will put pressure on prices [3][29][81]. - The core trading logic of electrolytic aluminum prices revolves around the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The Middle East's aluminum industry is facing challenges, and if the situation worsens, more aluminum plants may cut production. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of significant price corrections [3][82]. - In the cast aluminum market, the supply of compliant scrap aluminum is tight, and cost support is increasing. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain strong under the influence of Middle East conflicts, with significant intraday volatility [4][70][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina futures prices fluctuated in February, with the center of gravity slightly rising. The main contract price stabilized around 2,800 yuan/ton, with a high of 2,937 yuan/ton and a monthly decline of 0.87% [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices dropped rapidly at the beginning of February and then oscillated in a narrow range. The overseas LME aluminum price also adjusted, and the import loss slightly increased [12]. - Cast aluminum futures briefly exceeded 24,000 yuan/ton in February but then fell. The price mostly oscillated above 22,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.68% [13]. 3.2 Macro Environment 3.2.1 Overseas - The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with the US conducting military operations in Iran and Iran counter - attacking and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This has an impact on global inflation and resource products [16]. - The US has adjusted its tariff policies. The Federal Supreme Court made a decision on Trump's tariffs, and Trump re - introduced tariffs, which are expected to prevent a sharp short - term decline in US tariffs [16]. - In terms of employment and inflation, US employment data in January was better than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. However, due to the Middle East conflict, inflation expectations have risen, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened [18]. - In the fourth quarter of the US, GDP growth was lower than expected, with a decline in personal consumption expenditure contribution and a negative contribution from government spending [19]. - In Europe, the eurozone's industrial production slowed down, construction output rebounded, and PMI improved across the board. Exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic - After the Spring Festival, some industrial product production and prices recovered. The real estate market showed signs of recovery, and foreign trade port throughput and South Korea's export data were strong [21]. - In January, CPI and PPI data were affected by the Spring Festival and base - period rotation. Financial data had a good start, with an increase in social financing scale mainly driven by government bonds [21][22]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - In January, the supply of domestic bauxite was tight, with prices rising slightly in the north and remaining stable in the south. Imported ore supply is expected to increase, but geopolitical issues may affect transportation costs [24][25]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - In January, China's alumina production was flat year - on - year, and the supply surplus pattern remained. In February, production cuts were carried out, and imports decreased [25][26]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Exchange inventory increased from 182,000 tons at the beginning of February to 310,000 tons at the end of the month. The spot premium narrowed to a small premium of 21 yuan/ton in mid - February [27]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In January, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry decreased by 89.24 yuan/ton compared with December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.16% [28]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook - Short - term supply - side pressure has been relieved, and prices are expected to stabilize. In the medium to long term, new production capacity will put pressure on prices [29][81]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In January, China's primary aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February, production is expected to be about 3.44 million tons. Overseas, there are many production cut news, and the reduction is expected to be greater than the increase in March [42][43]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of March 5, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased compared with before the Spring Festival. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME also changed [44]. 3.4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The LME spot premium changed from a large discount to a small premium, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [45]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In February, the theoretical average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 88 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and the monthly theoretical profit increased by 605 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Cast Aluminum 3.5.1 Scrap Aluminum - In February, scrap aluminum imports were affected by policies and the Spring Festival. Domestic scrap aluminum production decreased month - on - month, and prices fluctuated after the Spring Festival [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. After the Lantern Festival, production gradually recovered, and imports were limited [66]. 3.5.3 Consumption - In January, automobile and motorcycle sales increased year - on - year [67]. 3.5.4 Spot and Inventory - As of March 5, the spot price of ADC12 increased, and the cast aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased [68][69]. 3.5.5 Outlook - The cost of cast aluminum is rising, the supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [70][83]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis 3.6.1 Aluminum Processing - In February, aluminum processing was affected by the Spring Festival. In March, with the arrival of the peak season, the industry is expected to recover [75]. 3.6.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - The real estate market is expected to be stable. Automobile sales were under pressure in January, and the market may adjust in February. The power demand is recovering, and the short - term demand for photovoltaic products is strong [76][77]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Product Exports - Exports are expected to face few obstacles, but the appreciation of the RMB and the Spring Festival may affect exports, and the year - on - year exports from January to February are expected to remain stable [78]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Middle East conflict has increased inflation risks, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have decreased. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policies of the Two Sessions [81]. - Alumina prices are expected to be stable in the short term and under pressure in the medium to long term [81]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but may correct if the geopolitical situation eases [82]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with significant volatility [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, inflation expectations rise, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is delayed to September. Gold is under pressure in the short - term but has support from the safe - haven sentiment and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - The domestic methanol market has high - level production and inventory. With the resumption of some downstream industries after the festival, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The tense situation in the US - Israel - Iran may lead to a decrease in the high - level inventory expectation [2] - The price of live pigs is weak in the short term due to oversupply, but the downward space of the futures price is limited in the medium term, and the far - month contracts are accelerating to build a bottom [4] - The palm oil price is supported by the expected decline in Malaysia's February inventory, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The domestic import profit of palm oil has been significantly repaired, and recent ship purchases have increased [5] - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate in a range with an upward - moving price center, supported by the high - running US soybeans and restricted by the high inventory of domestic oil mills and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [5] - During the Two Sessions, the policy is in a short - term window period, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term and show a triangular oscillating convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [6] - Palladium is bearish in the short term and may oscillate in the medium term, waiting for further clarification of the Fed's policy [6] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, supported by supply - side disturbances but restricted by weak reality and high inventory [8] - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate with the sector sentiment. The Indonesian policy provides medium - to - long - term support, but the short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose [8] - The policy on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components is beneficial to the long - term development of the casting aluminum industry. Currently, the price of casting aluminum alloy mainly follows the aluminum price and oscillates [9] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with high - level supply, tepid downstream demand, and high enterprise inventory [10] - The oil and gas prices continue to be strong due to the intensified war in the Middle East, but the supply pressure will increase in April as OPEC + announces production increase. It is recommended to hold long positions [10][11] - The PTA price is driven by the cost due to the strengthening of crude oil, but the supply - demand drive is limited as the polyester inventory is large and the weaving end has no actual orders [11] - The natural rubber market is expected to be treated with an oscillating mindset and be short - term bearish, affected by the approaching off - season of overseas production areas, unfavorable supply - demand data, and the departure of previous long - position funds [12] - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term, with sufficient supply, continued inventory accumulation, and limited export due to shipping fluctuations [13] 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Gold - The Middle East conflict continues, inflation expectations rise, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is delayed, the US dollar index rises, which pressures gold. However, the safe - haven sentiment provides support, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 8.01 tons to 10.14 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang rose by 177 yuan/ton to 2505 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 1.45 tons to 144.67 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.8 tons to 34.03 tons. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% to 92.75%, and the downstream total capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 69.61%. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Live Pigs - On March 3, the national average wholesale price of pork was 17.22 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous day, and the price of eggs was 7.58 yuan/kg, down 0.1%. The price of live pigs is weak due to oversupply, but there are signs of a stop - fall, and the downward space of the futures price is limited in the medium term [4] Palm Oil - Market institutions expect Malaysia's February palm oil inventory to fall to 263 tons, a 6.52% decrease from January. The production in February is expected to be 130 tons, a 17.8% decrease from the previous month. The price is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [5] Soybean Meal - As of March 3, the domestic soybean meal spot market price rose slightly. The support from the high - running US soybeans and the high domestic inventory situation lead to an expected range - bound oscillation with an upward - moving price center [5] Five - Year Treasury Bonds - During the Two Sessions, the policy is in a short - term window period, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term and show a triangular oscillating convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [6] Palladium - The Fed's potential balance - sheet reduction and the rising inflation expectation in the Middle East put pressure on palladium. It is bearish in the short term and may oscillate in the medium term [6] Copper - The interruption of the copper export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a limited actual impact. The copper price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Nickel - Indonesia plans to reduce nickel production in 2026 to 2.09 billion tons. The current supply is not in short - supply, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector sentiment [8] Casting Aluminum - The policy on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components is beneficial to the long - term development of the casting aluminum industry. Currently, the price mainly follows the aluminum price and oscillates [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash rose by 4 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 1.22% to 77.43 tons, and the inventory increased by 19.29% to 189.44 tons. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels in the week ending February 27. The war in the Middle East intensifies, and OPEC + will increase production in April. The oil price is strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions [10][11] PTA - The polyester inventory is large, and the weaving end has no actual orders. The PTA price is driven by the cost due to the strengthening of crude oil [11] Natural Rubber - The overseas production areas are approaching the off - season, and the supply - demand data is unfavorable. The rubber price is expected to be short - term bearish and be treated with an oscillating mindset [12] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC rose by 50 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.83% to 80.09%, and the social inventory increased by 1.71% to 122.7 tons. The market price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the intensifying tension between the US and Iran, the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a rise in market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, 7.05 million tons of alumina production capacity in six Middle - Eastern countries may be affected. After the holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, with the aluminum processing start - up rate increasing by 4.2% to 57%. Aluminum ingot inventory is 1.157 million tons, 265,000 tons more than before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventory is 398,000 tons, 92,000 tons more than before the holiday. In the short - term, the market is mainly trading on the "conflict escalation" logic, and aluminum prices may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the market depends on the further spread of the conflict. If it continues to escalate, it will be beneficial for aluminum prices. Also, the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the supply stability of electrolytic aluminum, which accounts for 9% of global supply. If the conflict cools down quickly, the prices of non - ferrous metals that have risen due to geopolitical premiums may fall back [3][9]. - In the cast aluminum sector, after the holiday, the aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 6.2 to 53.1%. Enterprises mainly focused on equipment maintenance and furnace pre - heating in the early stage. Although it has improved the start - up rate, the actual output has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. The terminal industries' resumption progress is advancing in an orderly manner, but the market inquiry atmosphere is only gradually warming up. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory for rigid needs, and a full recovery is expected after March. The cost of primary aluminum is expected to be strong this week due to macro - factors, and scrap aluminum prices will follow. Overall, cast aluminum prices are strong in the short - term, and long - term trends depend on geopolitical conflict changes [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data | Contract | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/27 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3090.5 | 3141.5 | 51.0 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continued Third | 23355 | 23980 | 625.0 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 35.27 | - 12.09 | 23.2 | US dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 481550 | 465550 | - 16000.0 | Tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 154332 | 289298 | 134966.0 | Tons | | Spot Average Price | 23288 | 23428 | 139.5 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 170 | 0.0 | Yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23374 | 23473 | 98.5 | Yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 86 | - 45 | 41.0 | Yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 89.2 | 115.7 | 26.5 | Tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 15816.16 | 15824.65 | 8.5 | Yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 7471.85 | 7602.85 | 131.0 | Yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 23650 | 23800 | 150.0 | Yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23100 | 23200 | 100.0 | Yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2624 | 2511 | - 113.0 | Yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3430 | 3318 | - 112.0 | Yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 66366 | 64454 | - 1912.0 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 23,428 yuan/ton, 139.5 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 23,473 yuan/ton, 98.5 yuan/ton higher than the previous week. Macroscopically, the US and Israel's military strike on Iran, the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have occurred. The US has officially started to impose a 10% global tariff, and is preparing to increase it to 15%. Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 212,000. The third - round indirect negotiation between Iran and the US has ended, and the next technical negotiation will be held in Vienna next Monday. Shanghai has optimized real - estate policies, and China and the US are maintaining communication on economic and trade consultations. In terms of consumption, the start - up rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries reached 57%, a 4.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. In terms of inventory, on February 26, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 265,000 tons to 1.157 million tons compared with before the holiday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 398,000 tons, 92,000 tons more than before the holiday [6][7]. - **Cast Aluminum**: On Friday, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 24,350 yuan/ton, 350 yuan/ton higher than the previous Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher. The refined - scrap price differences in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.9% week - on - week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 68,000 tons, 314 tons more than the previous Friday [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term market is mainly driven by the "conflict escalation" logic, and aluminum prices may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the market depends on the further spread of the conflict and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict cools down quickly, the prices may fall back [9]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Cast aluminum prices are strong in the short - term due to macro - factors and cost support. In the long - term, trends depend on geopolitical conflict changes [10]. 3.4 Industry News - In 2025, EGA's cast metal production reached a record high of 2.84 million tons [18]. - Global aluminum producers proposed an aluminum premium of $220 - 250 per ton for the April - June period in Japan, a 13% - 28% increase compared to this quarter [18]. - Century Aluminum's primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% quarter - on - quarter. In 2026, the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of Q2; the Icelandic aluminum plant is expected to resume production earlier than planned, starting at the end of April and reaching near - full production by the end of July [18]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continued Third, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes, cast aluminum futures and spot prices, refined - scrap price difference, and cast aluminum exchange inventory [14][17][28]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of zinc, which fell by 0.04%. Tin led the gains with a 7.62% increase, followed by nickel at 2.32%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all commodities saw increases of over 1%, with iron ore up 1.42%, stainless steel up 1.24%, rebar up 1.72%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.19%. Both coking coal and coke rose by 2.32% [1] - On the external market, base metals also showed an upward trend, with tin leading at 5.27% and nickel up by 1%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 0.68% and silver by 3.42%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 0.04%, while silver rose by 4.57% [1] Additional Metals - Platinum rose by 7.03%, and palladium increased by 4.5% [2] Macro Environment - The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and other departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026, aimed at meeting housing demand and promoting market stability [5][6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.095 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [6] Oil Market - As of 15:04, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 0.55% and Brent up 0.54%. Traders are preparing for upcoming US-Iran talks [9] - The API reported a crude oil inventory of 11.427 million barrels for the week ending February 20, against an expectation of 1.25 million barrels [9]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.12%. Nickel led the gains with an increase of 1.79%, while other metals saw increases of less than 1% [1] - In the aluminum sector, alumina futures dropped by 0.35%, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.47% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 3.66%, while industrial silicon futures fell by 0.42%, and polysilicon futures rose by 0.44% [1] - The European shipping index rose by 6.4% to 1258.9 [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and stainless steel all saw declines of around 0.2%, with hot-rolled coil down by 0.31%. Coking coal fell by 0.53%, and coking coke dropped by 0.3% [1] - Internationally, base metals showed mixed results, with London aluminum up by 0.27% and lead up by 0.18%, while other metals experienced slight declines [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold down by 0.32% and silver down by 1.16%, while domestic gold rose by 0.03% and silver by 0.62% [1][2] Macro Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation released guidelines for compliance in the automotive industry, highlighting significant legal risks associated with various pricing behaviors that could lead to below-cost pricing [5] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's new wind and solar power installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, marking a 22% year-on-year increase [6][7] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of developing new energy storage and future industries such as hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy [8] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that consumers purchasing new cars during the 2026 Spring Festival can apply for subsidies under the old-for-new vehicle policy [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining liquidity in the market [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - ADC12 quotes remain high and volatile. Affected by the decline in domestic prices, the import profit margin continues to narrow and once turns into a small loss, weakening the impact of imported sources on the domestic market. Downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for high - price stocking is low, with procurement mainly for rigid demand replenishment [3][4]. - In terms of alumina, there was partial production reduction and maintenance in January, involving a production capacity of about 5 million tons. However, most of these production reductions were mainly for calciner maintenance, and the production capacity will gradually resume. The inventory pressure of alumina plants increases, and the price is under pressure to fluctuate within the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton this month [3][33][90]. - For electrolytic aluminum, due to the fermentation of the Wash trade, the US dollar index rebounds, precious metals and copper decline sharply, and funds quickly flow out of the metal sector. The aluminum price is expected to adjust downward in a volatile manner in the short term, with support at 22,500 yuan/ton. In the long - term, there is a supply - demand gap for aluminum, which limits the short - term downward space of the aluminum price and provides long - term upward momentum [3][92]. - Regarding cast aluminum, the scrap aluminum market in the raw material end fluctuates widely following the primary aluminum. The cost support increases, but the supply and demand contract synchronously. It is expected that the recycled aluminum price will adjust at a high level, running within the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton this month [4][74][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Alumina prices initially rebounded rapidly but then fell back due to oversupply. At the end of the month, they stopped falling and rebounded slightly, closing at 2,768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - Shanghai aluminum futures rose strongly at the beginning, with the price reaching a new high of 26,185 yuan/ton and closing at 24,560 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.02%. LME aluminum prices also rose, closing at 3,135.5 US dollars/ton, a rise of 4.62% [11]. - Cast aluminum futures followed the primary aluminum price and rose, closing at 22,820 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.42% [12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed paused rate cuts in January, and Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which impacted global asset prices. The US labor market is slowing down, and inflation pressure is gradually easing. The US economy shows strong growth but has structural contradictions. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate. The eurozone's inflation pressure eases, the PPI decline expands, and the unemployment rate decreases slightly [16][18][19]. 3.2.2 Domestic - In 2025, China achieved its annual economic target, with GDP growing by 5.0%. In December, industrial production improved, consumption showed structural optimization but was under pressure at the end of the year, and investment was under pressure. Exports were strong, and the CPI and PPI were slightly better than expected. The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in 2026 [20][22][24]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - In January, the supply of domestic northern bauxite changed from a slight increase to a slight shortage, and the price decreased. Imported ore supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to decline [26][27]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - In December 2025, China's alumina production was 7.655 million tons, with an overall oversupply. In January, production reduction may increase, and the production is expected to be 7.4 million tons. In 2025, the net export volume of alumina increased significantly, but Russia's demand for Chinese alumina may decrease in the future [28][30]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - The exchange inventory remained between 150,000 - 160,000 tons in January, and the spot premium gradually declined [31]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In December 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry decreased. The prices of raw and auxiliary materials mainly declined, resulting in a downward trend in production costs [32]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook - Alumina prices are under pressure to fluctuate within the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton this month due to factors such as production capacity recovery, inventory pressure, and weakening cost support [33][90]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7846 million tons. In January 2026, it is estimated to be about 3.79 million tons. Overseas production is also expected to increase slightly. In 2025, the import and export volume of primary aluminum both increased [47][50]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of the end of January, the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 137,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots + aluminum rods increased by 244,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [50][51]. 3.4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In January, the spot price lagged behind the futures price, with a large discount. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount initially turned into a high premium and then fell back [52]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In January, the theoretical average full cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased, and the monthly theoretical profit also increased [53]. 3.5 Cast Aluminum Market Analysis 3.5.1 Scrap Aluminum - In December, the import of scrap aluminum increased. The domestic scrap aluminum production also increased, but there were problems in the resource recycling policy. The price of scrap aluminum followed the primary aluminum, and there may be further adjustments [69]. 3.5.2 Supply - In December, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. In January, it is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as high costs, environmental protection restrictions, and weak downstream demand. The export of aluminum alloy is expected to increase in January [70][71]. 3.5.3 Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production decreased, while motorcycle sales increased [72]. 3.5.4 Spot and Inventory - As of January 30, the ADC12 spot price increased, and the cast aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased [73]. 3.5.5 Outlook - The recycled aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, running within the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton this month [74][92]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis 3.6.1 Aluminum Processing - In January, the operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [82]. 3.6.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, the completion area decreased, and new construction and investment were under pressure. In the new energy vehicle sector, sales increased, and exports were strong. In the power sector, investment increased, but consumption was weak in December. In the photovoltaic sector, the installed capacity increased, and exports were affected by policies. In the energy storage sector, the installed capacity increased significantly, and the policy is expected to support further growth [83][84][85][86]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The implementation of the EU CBAM may bring pressure to the export market [87]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the nomination of the new Fed chairman affects market liquidity expectations. Domestically, policies are expected to be proactive. Alumina prices are under pressure to fluctuate. Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to adjust downward in the short term and have long - term upward momentum. Cast aluminum prices are expected to adjust at a high level [90][92].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a strong dollar impacting prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum alloy futures contract (2603) closed at 21,915 CNY, down 430 CNY, a decrease of 1.92%, with a trading volume of 6,836 lots, down 1,370 lots, and an open interest of 4,361 lots, down 169 lots [1]. - On February 5, the average price for aluminum alloy ADC12 was reported at 23,500 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY; A356.2 at 25,700 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; A380 remained stable at 25,000 CNY/ton; ZL102 at 25,100 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; and ZLD104 at 25,000 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, supporting high-cost levels for aluminum alloy, while demand is weakening as downstream enterprises reduce operations ahead of the Spring Festival [2]. - The market is characterized by high aluminum alloy prices, with sellers reluctant to lower prices, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere and low trading activity [2]. - Overall, while tight supply and cost support maintain high aluminum prices, low inventory buildup intentions and fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment are expected to lead to price adjustments in the short term [2].