核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日 降息预期降温 铝价调整 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储10月议息会议偏鹰，加上其 后公布的美国9月非农数据意外强劲，12月降息预期 大幅回落至30%，市场风险偏好连续下降。基本面新 疆20万吨新增产能投产，开工产能提升，同时铝水比 例回落，铸锭量提高。消费端上周铝加工开工率持平 与62%，消费向淡季切换但走弱幅度不大。下游在绝 对价格低位采购热情较高，周度铝库存停止累库，较 上周四持平于62万吨，铝 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 风险偏好回落 铝价高位调整 核心观点及策略 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 1 / 7 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储官员鹰派发言一度压制美 联储间隙预期，不过就业数据较弱，后续降息预期仍 有变动。美国政府即将开门，前期暂停的经济数据密 集公布，市场宏观波动放大。基本面国内供应端开工 产能稳定，铝水比例回落，铸锭量提高。海外由于电 力紧张，未来供应端担忧持续笼罩。消费端上周铝加 工开工率小幅回升0.4%至62%，电力及汽车板块消费 较有韧性。不过旺淡季切换下开工率难持续回升。周 度铝 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, recent alternative data indicate a weakening US labor market, and hawkish statements from some Fed officials have dampened market risk appetite. The outcome of the US government's reopening agreement is crucial as post - reopening data may influence market sentiment. Fundamentally, electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in November, leading to an increase in ingot production. In the consumption aspect, as November marks the transition between peak and off - peak seasons and with high aluminum prices, downstream procurement is mainly for essential needs. Additionally, environmental restrictions on some aluminum processing enterprises in the north have curbed consumption. The supply - demand situation is showing marginal weakness, and it is difficult for the social inventory of aluminum ingots to continue decreasing. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, tight overseas supply, and insufficient domestic supply - demand fundamentals, but high capital attention as evidenced by the record - high position in Shanghai aluminum futures, Shanghai aluminum is expected to perform well. [2][7] - In the cast aluminum sector, on the supply side, capacity release is constrained by uncertainties in raw materials and policies, and short - term cast aluminum operation remains stable. According to SMM, the output of ADC12 in October was 364,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons. On the consumption side, the rapid price increase has made downstream buyers hesitant, leading to a short - term decline in提货 enthusiasm. However, the good growth in terminal automobile production and sales provides demand resilience. The supply of scrap aluminum in the raw material market remains tight, with the price center rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the refined - scrap price difference of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan decreasing from 1,736 yuan/ton to 1,729 yuan/ton. With favorable supply - demand expectations and raw material cost support, cast aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [2][8] Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price decreased from 2,888 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, to 2,862 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton. [3] - SHFE aluminum continuous third - month contract price increased from 21,320 dollars/ton to 21,630 dollars/ton, an increase of 310 dollars/ton. [3] - The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.4 to 7.6, an increase of 0.2. [3] - LME spot premium decreased from - 5.45 dollars/ton to - 12.91 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. [3] - LME aluminum inventory decreased from 558,050 tons to 549,225 tons, a decrease of 8,825 tons. [3] - SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 64,393 tons to 63,770 tons, a decrease of 623 tons. [3] - The average spot price increased from 21,186 yuan/ton to 21,414 yuan/ton, an increase of 228 yuan/ton. [3] - The spot premium decreased from - 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - The average South Reserve spot price increased from 21,084 yuan/ton to 21,284 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. [3] - The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 102 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. [3] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 61.9 tons to 62.2 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons. [3] - The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15,708.59 yuan/ton to 15,751.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.7 yuan/ton. [3] - The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 5,477.41 yuan/ton to 5,662.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 185.3 yuan/ton. [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of aluminum ingots in the spot market was 21,414 yuan/ton, an increase of 228 yuan/ton compared to last week; the weekly average price of South Reserve spot was 21,284 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. [4] - In terms of macro - economy, the US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000, and the previous month's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000. The US ISM services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high and far exceeding the expected 50.8. The eurozone services PMI final value in October was 53%, better than the initial value of 52.6%, pushing the composite PMI final value to 52.5, the highest since May 2023. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month and falling short of the expected 49.5. The eurozone manufacturing final PMI in October was 50, in line with the initial estimate. In the first three quarters, China's service trade import and export volume was 5.93622 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. [4] - In the consumption of electrolytic aluminum, according to SMM, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6% to 61.6% month - on - month, mainly due to environmental protection affecting downstream operations and the transition from peak to off - peak seasons weakening consumption. The terminal automobile and power sectors have consumption resilience, which is expected to support consumption. It is expected that the aluminum processing operating rate will decline slightly and fluctuantly in November. [5] - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, according to SMM, on October 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday, to 618,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 145,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last Thursday. [5] - In the cast aluminum sector, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 21,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased from 1,736 yuan/ton to 1,729 yuan/ton during the week. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 59.1% week - on - week. On November 6, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 55,800 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 55,000 tons, an increase of 4,662 tons compared to last Friday. [6] Market Outlook - Electrolytic aluminum: The market risk appetite is suppressed due to the weakening US labor market and hawkish Fed statements. After the US government reopens, the data may affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, production capacity is stable, but the molten aluminum ratio is expected to decline in November, and the ingot production will increase. Consumption is mainly for essential needs, and environmental restrictions in the north curb consumption. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is unlikely to continue decreasing. With high macro uncertainty, tight overseas supply, and insufficient domestic fundamentals, but high capital attention, Shanghai aluminum is expected to perform well. [7] - Cast aluminum: Supply capacity release is constrained by raw materials and policies, and short - term operation is stable. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices, but terminal automobile production and sales support demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and prices are rising. With favorable supply - demand expectations and cost support, cast aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [8] Industry News - In October 2025, China's unprocessed aluminum and aluminum product export volume was 503,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the export volume was 5.02 million tons, a decrease of 8.60% compared to 5.49 million tons in the same period last year. [9] - According to SMM, due to significant inventory pressure of aluminum processed products, a southern aluminum plant restarted the electrolytic aluminum ingot business in November. The molten aluminum ratio is expected to drop from 100% to 75%, with the end time undetermined. Also, due to weak demand in the aluminum rod market and intensified regional competition, the enterprise adjusted the aluminum rod production line, with the daily output of aluminum rods decreasing by 70%, and the aluminum rod output also decreased. [9] - Rio Tinto's Bell Bay aluminum plant extended the temporary power agreement with the Tasmanian government and will operate until December 2026, gaining a 14 - month buffer for long - term operation negotiations. Currently, the federal government is promoting the negotiation of a 10 - year power supply agreement and a 2 - billion - dollar green aluminum production credit plan. [9] Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including LME 3 - month aluminum and SHFE aluminum continuous third - month contract price trends, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum monthly - consecutive first - month spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical trade seasonal spot premium, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes. [10][11][14][15][16]

Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]