Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will cancel the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs for solar companies and lead to a rush in shipments before the deadline [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export rebate from 9% to a complete cancellation is anticipated to raise export costs for solar companies, prompting many factories to call back workers from vacation to increase production [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the export prices of photovoltaic products have been declining, indicating a "volume increase and price decrease" trend [2]. - The policy change is expected to help stabilize export prices in the long term and reduce the likelihood of trade frictions, although it is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Currently, there has been no increase in booking volumes for photovoltaic products, and companies will need time to react to the new policy, but a surge in shipments is anticipated, which may help the shipping market during the off-peak season [2]. - The Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period, with slight fluctuations in shipping prices for various routes [2]. - Analysts predict a potential surge in shipments post-Chinese New Year, estimating a volume of approximately 9,300 to 12,300 FEU (40-foot standard containers) per month, which is comparable to the capacity of large container ships [3]. Group 3: Shipping Industry Insights - The main contract for the European shipping index (EC2604) saw a significant increase of 11.30%, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated surge in photovoltaic exports due to the rebate policy change [3]. - Shipping companies typically have long-term agreements with major photovoltaic manufacturers, and there is sufficient capacity to accommodate any overflow demand from increased shipments [3]. - Despite the short-term benefits from the expected surge in shipments, analysts warn that the overall export volume of photovoltaic components is likely to decline significantly in the future, putting pressure on long-term shipping rates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement on January 9 regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products will lead to the cancellation of the 9% VAT export rebate starting from April 1, 2026, increasing export costs for solar companies [1]. Group 1: Export Tax Rebate Policy - The cancellation of the 9% VAT export rebate is expected to raise export costs for photovoltaic companies, prompting many factories to cancel worker vacations and increase production [1]. - The adjustment is seen as a measure to curb the rapid decline in export prices and reduce trade friction, although it is not the only solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Logistics - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted a "volume increase and price decrease" trend in export prices since 2024, with some companies passing the rebate loss to foreign buyers, leading to profit erosion [2]. - A surge in shipping demand is anticipated, although current booking volumes have not increased significantly, and logistics companies are preparing for this potential rush [2][3]. Group 3: Future Export Trends - Following the adjustment, a significant drop in photovoltaic component export volumes is expected, with potential shipping volumes post-Spring Festival estimated between 9,300 to 12,300 FEU per month [4]. - The main contract for the European shipping index EC2604 saw a notable increase, influenced by the expected rush in shipments due to the tax rebate policy change [4][5].