Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel export tax rebates for nearly 250 products, including photovoltaic products, is a significant step towards transforming China's foreign trade strategy and economic growth model, aiming to reduce reliance on exports and promote domestic demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Adjustment and Economic Strategy - The adjustment of export tax rebates is part of China's broader strategy to address issues arising from an over-reliance on exports, which has led to trade imbalances and increased foreign exchange risks [2][3] - Since the initiation of the "export-for-foreign-exchange" strategy, export tax rebates have contributed significantly to China's trade surplus, accounting for about half of it over the past 30 years [3] - The emphasis on photovoltaic and battery products in the announcement reflects China's competitive advantages and aims to alleviate international trade tensions [3] Group 2: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Experts express concerns that reducing or eliminating export tax rebates could negatively impact export enterprises, especially in the current uncertain external environment [5][9] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their competitiveness through innovation and quality improvement rather than relying on government support [10] - The transition from an export-oriented model to one focused on domestic demand will require time and may involve challenges, but it is deemed necessary for long-term economic stability [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the adjustment of export tax rebates is a significant measure for transforming foreign trade and economic growth models in China, aiming to reduce reliance on exports and promote domestic demand [2][3] - The adjustment involves the cancellation of export tax rebates for nearly 250 products, including solar photovoltaic products and a reduction in rebates for 22 types of battery products, which will be fully eliminated by January 1, 2027 [1][3] - This policy is seen as a continuation of efforts to address issues arising from a long-standing export-oriented growth strategy, which has led to high export dependency and trade imbalances [2][3] Group 2 - The adjustment of export tax rebates is expected to directly impact trade surpluses, as historically, export tax rebates accounted for about half of China's trade surplus over the past 30 years [3] - The policy aims to signal goodwill to international trading partners, particularly in light of trade tensions surrounding competitive products like solar panels and batteries [3] - Experts suggest that companies that can no longer compete in the international market due to the reduction of export tax rebates should pivot to domestic markets to meet local demand, although this transition may involve challenges [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - **Indices**: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush could reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying on dips during the spot price bottom - finding process [3][33] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. A positive spread trading strategy is generally recommended, and also pay attention to shorting the EC2610 contract when the price rises (the current valuation of the EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.6, up 0.02%, with a basis of 248.8, a trading volume of 748, an open interest of 4681, and an open interest change of -425 [2][32] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.7, up 0.71%, with a basis of 818.7, a trading volume of 19477, an open interest of 40770, and an open interest change of -529 [2][32] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1399.1, up 1.53%, with a basis of 557.3, a trading volume of 3227, an open interest of 4883, and an open interest change of 826 [2][32] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1498.4, up 0.83%, with a basis of 458.0, a trading volume of 128, an open interest of 1353, and an open interest change of 6 [2][32] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1086.4, up 1.09%, with a basis of 870.0, a trading volume of 1037, an open interest of 8318, and an open interest change of -29 [2][32] 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The day - on - day change was -7.6, and the week - on - week change was -19.6 [2][32] - EC2504 - 2606: The day - on - day change was -13.1, and the week - on - week change was -71.2 [2][32] 3.3 Index Data - Spot (European Line): As of 2026/1/12, the index was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from the period before the previous one [2][32] - SCFI: As of 2026/1/16, it was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2][32] 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK's opening price was 2750 (up 100 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), OA was 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4][34] - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (special offer at 2200), OA was 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4][34] - February Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2000/2100 (down 400 month - on - month), currently OA is 2400 - 2600, PA is 2000 - 2200. The central price is about 2300 dollars, equivalent to about 1600 points on the futures [4][34] 3.5 News - On Wednesday, YML lowered its February freight rates. The FAK quote remained at 2400, and the special offer dropped from 2100 to 2000. CMA quoted a February freight rate of 2600 online. Other shipping companies remained unchanged [4][34] - On Thursday, COSCO quoted 2500 on the European line, and EMC cut its price to 2400 [4][34] - On 1/23, Israeli President Herzog said Hamas still held hostages in Gaza. The real test of the second - stage cease - fire was Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah was trying to reorganize and rebuild, and the Houthi rebels were still active [5][35] - On 1/23, Trump said there were only small - scale conflicts left in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas didn't fulfill its promise to lay down arms, it would be finished. He also said action must be taken against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5][35] - On 1/23, the Iranian Speaker said all cities in Iran had returned to peace [5][35]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the futures market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush may slow down the price decline in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying at low prices during the spot market's bottom - finding process [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to adopt a positive spread trading strategy and consider shorting the EC2610 contract at high prices (the current valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous trading day were 1707.6, 1137.7, 1399.1, 1498.4, and 1086.4 respectively, with daily changes of 0.02%, 0.71%, 1.53%, 0.83%, and 1.09% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous trading day were 748, 19477, 3227, 128, and 1037 respectively, and the open interests were 4681, 40770, 4883, 1353, and 8318 respectively, with open interest changes of - 4.25, - 529, 826, 6, and - 29 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 on the previous day were 569 and - 261.4 respectively, with daily changes of - 7.6 and - 13.1, and weekly changes of - 19.6 and - 71.2 [2]. Spot Market Information - **Spot Indexes**: The spot index (OCEAN LINE) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. The SCFI (OCEAN LINE) on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.50% [2]. - **European Line Spot Quotes**: From Week 4 to Week 6 in February, the central quotes of European line spot prices were 2630, 2540, and 2300 dollars respectively, equivalent to 1840, 1780, and 1600 points on the futures market. Some shipping companies adjusted their February freight rates, such as YML reducing its special - offer rate from 2100 to 2000, and EMC reducing its price to 2400 [4]. Relevant News - Israeli President Herzog stated that Hamas still holds hostages in Gaza, and the real test of the second - stage cease - fire lies in Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah is trying to reorganize, and the Houthi rebels are still active [5]. - Trump said that only small - scale conflicts remain in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas does not fulfill its promise and lay down its arms, it will be finished. He also called for action against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5]. - The Iranian Speaker announced that all cities in Iran have returned to peace [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 02 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. The 04 contract needs attention on the spot market and actual rush - shipping situation. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of the 04 contract fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to pay attention to possible correction opportunities. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the 10 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuations of the 04 and 10 contracts are neutral with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602 closed at 1714.3 with a 0.22% increase, trading volume of 1999, and an open interest of 6439 with a decrease of 1139. EC2604 closed at 1132.2 with a 1.00% increase, trading volume of 30559, and an open interest of 41888 with a decrease of 744. EC2606 closed at 1318.0 with a 0.52% increase, trading volume of 2329, and an open interest of 4200 with an increase of 420. EC2608 closed at 1459.0 with a 0.45% decrease, trading volume of 121, and an open interest of 1366 with a decrease of 19. EC2610 closed at 1054.1 with a 0.09% decrease, trading volume of 1410, and an open interest of 8186 with an increase of 248 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2502 - 2604 was 582.1 compared to the previous day, with a day - on - day decrease of 7.4 and a week - on - week increase of 61.4. EC2504 - 2606 was - 185.8, with a day - on - day increase of 4.4 and a week - on - week increase of 28.0 [2] Spot Indexes - The SCHIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39, showing an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase from the period before the previous one. The SCFI (European route) index on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK opened the cabin at 2750 (a 100 increase from the previous period), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures. In Week 5, MSK opened the cabin at 2450 (a 300 decrease from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [3] Related News - On January 20, Iran stated that the internet would return to normal within the week, and the Iranian security forces' commander said that the government had fully restored order in all cities. Russia, Belarus, the EU, Norway, Poland, Thailand, Uzbekistan and other countries have successively stated that their leaders have been invited to join the Gaza "Peace Committee" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is not expected to have a direct negative impact on the company's business or its performance in 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The company's lithium business primarily involves lithium ore mining and lithium salt manufacturing, which are not directly affected by the export tax rebate adjustments [1] - However, the company's lithium business is part of the upstream lithium battery supply chain and may experience indirect effects due to downstream demand transmission, price fluctuations, and industry changes [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on January 16 saw more declines than gains, with polysilicon and rapeseed oil leading the gains, both rising over 2% [1] - The carbon lithium main contract hit the daily limit down, falling by 8.99%, while other commodities like shipping, tin, and nickel also experienced significant declines [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1668.57 points, down 15.53 points or 0.92% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon showed signs of stabilization on January 16, with the main contract rising by 2.5% after a week of corrections, driven by speculation about capacity control and production adjustments [2] - Concerns about production impacts due to a major company's planned shutdown until May have increased, alongside a firm pricing stance from polysilicon producers [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that high inventory levels and strict industry regulations may limit the sustainability of this upward trend [2] Group 3: Oilseed Market - The oilseed sector saw a general increase, led by rapeseed oil with a 2.07% rise, attributed to low domestic rapeseed inventory and strong reactions to rising overseas oil prices [3] - U.S. biodiesel policy developments are expected to boost soybean oil consumption, contributing to price recoveries in both domestic and international markets [3] - However, analysts note that potential policy factors and mixed market influences may hinder the formation of a clear trend in the oilseed market [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - Glass and steel prices continued to rise moderately, with glass increasing by 1.29% while rebar saw only a slight increase of 0.06% [4] - The basic metals market experienced a broad retreat, with lithium carbonate hitting the limit down and falling by 8.99%, influenced by rapid price increases and profit-taking [5][6] - The shipping sector faced downward pressure, with the main contract for the European shipping line dropping by 8.52% due to seasonal trends and reduced demand ahead of the Chinese New Year [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic sector may experience a significant rush - to - export market in the first quarter, which will marginally benefit the demand for related products. The lithium - battery sector, including batteries and ternary materials, has short - term rush - to - export drivers. The "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic sector will have a certain impact on the container shipping index (European line) [4][18][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Sector - **Export Tax Rebate System**: The export tax rebate system for photovoltaic products dates back to 2013. It has been adjusted several times, and from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic cells and modules will be cancelled. The expected cancellation of the tax rebate in 2025 Q3 led to a 10% quarter - on - quarter increase in component exports [7]. - **Impact on the Industry**: China's photovoltaic exports are mainly components, with about 40% going to Europe. After the cancellation of the tax rebate in April, the export cost per watt of components is expected to increase by $0.008 (equivalent to RMB 0.06 per watt), and the export profit per watt will drop to -$0.012, leading to potential losses in component exports [10]. - **European Market Situation**: The overall economic weakness in Europe, subsidy reduction, and limited grid capacity will lead to a 3% year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations in 2026. However, there is a clear peak - off - peak cycle. Before the policy adjustment on April 1, there will be a significant rush - to - export market, and component exports in Q1 2026 are expected to increase by 8 - 10GW compared to previous expectations [14]. - **Demand for Related Products**: In the first quarter, domestic installation demand is weak, but the rush - to - export of components will improve overall demand. It is expected to bring about 8 - 10GW of component demand increment, which will marginally benefit the demand for main and auxiliary materials of photovoltaic components [17]. 3.2 Lithium - Battery Sector - **Export Tax Rebate Policy**: The export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries will be reduced to 9%, 6%, and 0% in December 2024, April 2026, and January 2027 respectively. The first reduction had no obvious impact, and in November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year exports of power and energy - storage batteries increased by 47% and 74% respectively [20]. - **Impact on Leading Enterprises**: The export tax rebate cancellation may reduce the policy support for enterprises by $1.8 billion. However, enterprises with a stable overseas market and strong bargaining power can better withstand the impact [21]. - **Export Demand of Power Batteries**: Power and energy - storage lithium - ion batteries rely on the export market by about 16% and 24% respectively. The core export area for power batteries is Europe. Although affected by US tariffs, the demand has strong resilience, and there will be a moderate "rush - to - export" demand [24]. - **Energy - Storage Batteries**: The domestic energy - storage battery market is highly competitive. With the cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate, there will be a strong "rush - to - export" demand in the Middle East, Chile and other regions. However, the current production capacity of battery factories is nearly saturated, so short - term export increments are limited [28]. - **Ternary Materials**: The export tax rebate for ternary materials and precursors will be reduced from 13% to 0%, with a greater impact on profits. NCM and NCM precursor materials mainly rely on exports to Japan and South Korea. The export tax rebate cancellation will have a greater impact on the upstream of the ternary lithium - battery industry chain and may stimulate a "rush - to - export" demand [31][35]. 3.3 Container Shipping Sector - **Transport Demand**: In 2025, the export of photovoltaic components to 12 European countries decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that the "rush - to - export" of components may lead to the pre - shifting of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transport demand on the European line from Q2 to Q1, and the total transport demand on the European - Mediterranean route may increase by 40,000 - 70,000 TEU [39]. - **Impact on Container Shipping European Line**: The concentrated "rush - to - export" may occur from late February to March. The 20,000 - 50,000 TEU transport increment in the photovoltaic industry is difficult to change the monthly - level over - capacity situation. It will have a marginal positive impact on the loading rate from February to March but is negative for the transport demand after April. For the futures market, EC2602 is basically unaffected, and EC2604 has a downward - driving force, but it may not show an overly pessimistic discount [42].