花旗预计随着海南业务复苏，中免去年第四季盈利将有所改善，展开30天上行催化剂观察。花旗并关注 冬天旺季及农历新年黄金周期间销售动能的持续性，预料可成为公司的短期催化剂。 花旗发布研报称，将中国中免（601888）(01880)H股目标价由72港元上调至100港元，并维持"买入"评 级。去年第四季以来海南离岛免税销售表现较预期强劲，由10月及11月份的同比增长13%及27%，加快 至圣诞节前夕(12月18日至24日)增长55%，以及今年首星期的增长88%，主要归因于新免税政策、财富 效应、促销活动及节日演唱会等推动。 该行预期，海南强劲的销售趋势或于冬天旺季持续，对海南今年免税销售增长前景变得更正面，预期销 售同比增长将超过20%。花旗分别将今明两年盈利预测上调5%及6.6%，2025年全年盈利预测则下调 6.3%，以反映去年第三季业绩未达预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached 506 million RMB from November 1 to 7, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, with 73,000 shoppers, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, driven by new duty-free shopping policies [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese duty-free industry outlook is optimistic, primarily due to new policies in Hainan and a low base effect, with expectations for a positive sales trend in Q4 and accelerated growth from 2026 to 2027 [1] - China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the positive trends in Hainan's duty-free sales [1] - Airport duty-free sales are anticipated to recover steadily due to the expansion of duty-free areas and a double-digit growth in international passenger traffic [1] - Policy relaxation, along with increased retail space and product variety, will act as catalysts for growth in China's duty-free sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hainan's duty-free sales reached 5.06 billion RMB from November 1 to 7, representing a 35% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by new duty-free shopping policies [1] Industry Summary - The optimistic outlook for China's duty-free industry is primarily due to new policies in Hainan and a low base effect, with expectations for a positive sales trend in Q4 and accelerated growth from 2026 to 2027 [1] - China Duty Free Group (01880) is anticipated to be the biggest beneficiary of the favorable conditions in the duty-free market [1] - The expansion of airport duty-free areas and a double-digit growth in international passenger traffic are expected to contribute to a steady recovery in airport duty-free sales [1] - Policy relaxation, along with increased retail space and product variety, will act as catalysts for growth in China's duty-free sales [1]