Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a significant transformation, shifting from quantity to quality, driven by increased consumer confidence and innovative policies [6][9][10]. Consumer Activity - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, indicating a robust recovery in consumer activity [6][14]. - Hainan's duty-free sales on January 1 reached 251 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.8%, showcasing the growing appeal of domestic tourism and shopping [7][14]. Market Trends - The rise of "China Shopping" alongside "China Travel" reflects a shift in consumer preferences, with tourists increasingly purchasing high-tech products and cultural items rather than traditional souvenirs [7][8]. - The Z-generation in China is gravitating towards new domestic products and services that blend tradition with modern technology, enhancing the appeal of local brands [7][8]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including financial incentives and support for green technology products [9][10]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026 to maintain high growth rates, focusing on boosting consumer spending and investment [9][10]. Economic Resilience - China's consumer market is not only recovering but also reflecting structural optimization and enhanced internal dynamics, contributing to economic resilience [11][19]. - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a steady release of consumer demand [11][19]. Global Perspective - International media highlight the opportunities for global businesses to adapt to the evolving Chinese market, particularly in sectors like retail and services, where consumer preferences are shifting towards local and value-driven products [12][19]. - The focus on service experiences among younger consumers presents significant opportunities for foreign companies in sectors such as tourism, cultural events, and entertainment [12][19].

花旗预计随着海南业务复苏，中免去年第四季盈利将有所改善，展开30天上行催化剂观察。花旗并关注 冬天旺季及农历新年黄金周期间销售动能的持续性，预料可成为公司的短期催化剂。 花旗发布研报称，将中国中免（601888）(01880)H股目标价由72港元上调至100港元，并维持"买入"评 级。去年第四季以来海南离岛免税销售表现较预期强劲，由10月及11月份的同比增长13%及27%，加快 至圣诞节前夕(12月18日至24日)增长55%，以及今年首星期的增长88%，主要归因于新免税政策、财富 效应、促销活动及节日演唱会等推动。 该行预期，海南强劲的销售趋势或于冬天旺季持续，对海南今年免税销售增长前景变得更正面，预期销 售同比增长将超过20%。花旗分别将今明两年盈利预测上调5%及6.6%，2025年全年盈利预测则下调 6.3%，以反映去年第三季业绩未达预期。 ...

购买智能眼镜享受"国补"，东北地区铁路旅游计次票热销，个人销售购买不足2年住房增值税率下 降……2026年是"十五五"开局之年，新年伊始，一批政策举措落地实施、优化升级，回应群众急难愁 盼，增强高质量发展动力活力。 消费："国补"再开启，海南离岛免税新政更给力 "新年添置新家电，节能又优惠。"元旦假期，山东济南市民李阳订购了一台一级能效85英寸彩电，原价 近8000元，到手只需6600多元。 1月1日，新一轮"国补"开启，引领市场消费热度持续攀升。 看补贴范围，在手机、平板、智能手表手环等基础上，新增智能眼镜；家电产品包括冰箱、洗衣机、电 视、空调、电脑、热水器六大品类，但只补贴一级能效或水效标准产品；汽车报废更新、置换更新依旧 享受补贴。 看补贴标准，数码、家电产品继续享受15%补贴比例，数码产品单件最高补贴500元，家电产品最高补 贴1500元；汽车更新调整为按价格比例补贴，最高补贴2万元。 消费市场的另一大变化，来自海南离岛免税政策调整：免税商品由45类增至47类，享惠对象扩大至离境 旅客；一个自然年度内有离岛记录的海南岛内居民，在本自然年度内可不限次数购买15类"即购即提"商 品。 政策利好叠加元旦假 ...

元旦假期前两日海南离岛免税销售额同比增长121.5% 中新网海口1月3日电(记者 王子谦)元旦假期前两天，海南离岛免税销售数据飘红。据海口海关3日统 计，1—2日，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售30.7万件，同比增长48.3%；购物人数6.5万人次，同比 增长60.9%；购物金额5.05亿元，同比增长121.5%。 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 继1日销售数据大涨后，2日延续涨势。海关统计，当日共监管海南离岛免税销售15.9万件，同比增长 70.6%；购物人数3.3万人次，同比增长77.6%；购物金额2.54亿元，同比增长156.6%。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the tourism retail industry, indicating a projected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port is steadily advancing its closure operations, focusing on institutional innovation to achieve a higher level of openness to the outside world. The policy design includes "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island," which aims to maximize the benefits of openness while ensuring safety and efficiency [1]. - The continuous optimization of the duty-free shopping policy for outbound travelers is expected to further stimulate consumption in Hainan. Recent adjustments have expanded the range of duty-free goods and included domestic products, enhancing the shopping experience and increasing the number of beneficiaries [2][3]. - The adjustment of the duty-free policy has already shown positive effects, with a reported shopping amount of 506 million yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week after the new policy implementation, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.86% and 3.37%, respectively [3]. - The facilitation of personnel exchanges between Hainan and foreign countries has improved, with 85 countries now allowing visa-free entry. This has led to over 2 million inbound and outbound travelers, including more than 1.06 million foreigners, marking a year-on-year growth of 45.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port Operations - The core mechanism of Hainan's closure operations is designed to integrate high-level trade liberalization with effective management, ensuring a closed-loop management of goods while maximizing the benefits of openness [1]. Duty-Free Policy Adjustments - The recent adjustments to the duty-free shopping policy include the addition of two new categories of goods, the inclusion of six categories of domestic products for tax exemption, and the expansion of eligible beneficiaries to include outbound travelers [2]. Consumption Impact - The initial impact of the new duty-free policy has been significant, with a notable increase in shopping amounts and participation, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior in Hainan [3]. International Exchange Facilitation - The ongoing optimization of visa policies and the hosting of international events in Hainan are expected to further enhance the flow of people and boost the local economy [4].

Core Insights - The duty-free policy in Hainan is a key element in the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the International Tourism Consumption Center, significantly contributing to the province's economic growth [1][2] Market Growth - The duty-free sales in Hainan have shown a remarkable annual growth rate of nearly 30% from 2018 to 2024, with sales doubling almost every year from 2019 to 2021 [1] - The proportion of domestic consumers purchasing duty-free goods in Hainan has increased from approximately 5% in 2018 to over 20% in 2024 [1] - Hainan's share of the national duty-free market has grown from one-quarter to nearly 70%, while its share of the global duty-free market has increased from 2% to 8.6% [1] Economic Impact - By 2024, over 54 million visitors are expected to enter duty-free shops in Hainan, indicating that one in every two tourists will visit these stores [1] - Duty-free sales account for about one-fifth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in Hainan, and the import value of duty-free goods represents approximately one-seventh of the province's total imports [1] - The industry has directly created over 13,000 jobs in Hainan [1] Consumer Attraction - Hainan has become a popular destination for consumers, with over 900 international brands available and a diverse range of products [2] - More than 50 promotional events have been held this year, with consumer vouchers exceeding 300 million yuan [2] Market Dynamics - Seven operators are currently involved in Hainan's duty-free market, fostering healthy competition that enhances product variety, pricing, service, and consumer experience [2] - The rapid development of the duty-free sector is driving the growth and upgrading of related industries, such as warehousing and logistics, contributing to the modernization of Hainan's commercial circulation system [2] Future Outlook - Hainan aims to continue enhancing its services to ensure that tourists have a satisfying shopping experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan, effective from November 1, aims to expand product categories and increase purchasing eligibility, potentially leading to sales growth [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The decline in Hainan's duty-free sales is narrowing, with average daily sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, driven by a rise in average transaction value [2]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The new duty-free policy expands the range of products available, adding categories such as pet supplies, portable musical instruments, drones, and small appliances, increasing the total from 45 to 47 categories [3]. - It also allows domestic products like clothing, ceramics, and coffee to be sold in duty-free shops, with tax exemptions [3]. - The eligibility for duty-free purchases has been broadened to include departing travelers, and local residents can now make unlimited purchases of specified items after leaving the island, with an annual spending cap of 100,000 yuan [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The official launch of Hainan's free trade port on December 18, 2025, is expected to enhance tourism infrastructure and attract more visitors, thereby boosting duty-free sales [4]. - The construction of the free trade port may impact the competitive landscape of Hainan's duty-free market and stimulate the tourism sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan has implemented a traceability management system for duty-free goods to enhance the shopping environment and ensure product quality, thereby strengthening the reputation of the duty-free industry [2][4][6]. Group 1: Traceability System Implementation - The traceability code serves as the unique identifier for duty-free products, affixed to the smallest packaging unit, featuring anti-tampering and anti-damage functions [2][3]. - The traceability management system is a public service platform connected to enterprise information systems and customs supervision systems, allowing duty-free businesses to apply for and activate traceability codes [3][5]. - The system aims to ensure that each product is uniquely identified, linking it to relevant sales and inventory information, thus achieving "one product, one code" [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Market Impact - The introduction of traceability codes has increased consumer confidence in the quality of duty-free products and helps combat counterfeit and proxy purchasing issues [4][6]. - During the recent holiday period, the duty-free market in Hainan showed significant vitality, with logistics and inventory pressures increasing, prompting customs to enhance efficiency through innovative auditing processes [4][6]. - The traceability system has contributed to a rise in tourist satisfaction and has stimulated rapid growth in related industries, with over 200 billion yuan in duty-free shopping amounts and 30 million shoppers since the new policy's implementation [6][7]. Group 3: Technological Integration and Future Developments - Hainan is advancing a "smart + credit" approach in customs supervision, integrating a large data pool and risk feature libraries to facilitate automated and intelligent monitoring [7]. - The establishment of a credit clearance system for foreign trade entities aims to enhance customs convenience and efficiency across the province [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) saw a stock increase of over 4%, currently at 65.05 HKD with a trading volume of 259 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid regulatory and market developments [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - From January to August 2025, Haikou Customs reported a total duty-free sales amount of 20.43 billion CNY, with 3.148 million shoppers and 18.671 million items sold [1] - In August alone, the duty-free sales in Hainan reached approximately 2.105 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the sales pressure in Hainan is expected to ease due to a gradually lowering base and increased efforts from the government and companies to stimulate sales [1] - The recovery of same-store sales in duty-free outlets and the expansion of new channels in both port and city stores suggest a potential turning point for the company's fundamentals [1] Group 3: Policy Measures - On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released 19 measures aimed at expanding service consumption, including a series of promotional activities for service consumption [1] - As of the end of August, the number of duty-free shops for outbound tax refunds exceeded 10,000, three times the number at the end of 2024, with a 248% year-on-year increase in the number of tax refund beneficiaries and a 98% increase in tax refund sales from January to August [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a stock increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 65.05 with a trading volume of HKD 259 million, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid recent sales data and government policies [1] Group 1: Sales Data - From January to August 2025, Haikou Customs reported a total duty-free sales amount of CNY 20.43 billion, with 3.148 million shoppers and 18.671 million items sold [1] - In August alone, the duty-free sales in Hainan were approximately CNY 2.105 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the sales pressure in Hainan is expected to ease due to a gradually lowering base and increased efforts from the government and companies [1] - The recovery of same-store sales in duty-free outlets and the expansion of new channels in both port and city stores suggest a potential turning point for the company's fundamentals [1] Group 3: Government Policies - On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released 19 measures aimed at expanding service consumption, including a series of promotional activities for service consumption [1] - As of the end of August, the number of duty-free shops for outbound tax refunds exceeded 10,000, tripling the figure from the end of 2024, with a 248% year-on-year increase in the number of tax refund beneficiaries and a 98% growth in tax refund sales from January to August [1]