Macro Economic Background - Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival showed strong performance, with a 6.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the holiday period from February 7 to February 26, 2026 [11] - Retail and catering enterprises reported a daily sales increase of 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, with significant growth in smart wearable devices and duty-free sales in Hainan [11] - Real estate sales improved, with a 25.5% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities during the Spring Festival [11] - The box office revenue for the Spring Festival period decreased by 40% year-on-year, indicating a decline in movie-going enthusiasm [11] A-Share Market - In February, the A-share market experienced a high-level consolidation with a focus on small-cap and dividend stocks [8] - The market is expected to shift from a valuation expansion phase to a performance-driven phase as the "Two Sessions" policy discussions unfold [3] - The market is likely to focus on policy expectations and external geopolitical risks in March, with a potential rebound in economic data following the Spring Festival [3] Fixed Income Market - In February, bond market yields trended downward, with a focus on structural opportunities as the 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain above 1.80% [8] - The bond market may face profit-taking pressure, and investors are advised to look for specific opportunities [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate weakly, with increased volatility anticipated [8] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, although geopolitical uncertainties may lead to increased volatility [3] Overseas Markets - The US stock market is projected to exhibit a fluctuating pattern, with attention on the evolution of AI narratives [8] - The bond yields in the US are expected to have limited downward space in the short term, influenced by changes in risk aversion sentiment [3] - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to remain under pressure from external sentiments, with a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Technology Index [3] Commodities - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may drive oil prices up in the short term, but there is a risk of a significant price drop if conflicts do not persist [4] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise as macroeconomic fundamentals improve [4]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Feb 2026 中国可选消费 China (A-share) Discretionary 春节海南离岛免税数据健康回归，26 年销售额增速预期提升 Consumer Channel Pulse: Hainan Offshore Duty-free Sales Showed Healthy and Normalized over Chinese New Year, with Sales Growth Forecast for 2026 Expected to Rise 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 骆雅丽 Yali Luo yy.kou@htisec.com yl.luo@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2026 年 2 月 24 日，海通国际举办海南免税专家会，邀请海南免税专家分享春节期间海南免税数据观点与 26 年行业收入展望与趋势。 春节数据 ...

"史上最长春节假期"，全国消费市场"马力全开"！ 国家税务总局增值税发票数据显示，2026年春节假期，全国消费相关行业日均销售收入与上年春节假期相比增长13.7%，文旅、零售、餐饮等行业，以及 全国部分重点省市，都交出了一组组"超预期"的炸裂数据。 01. 全国消费市场数据： 文旅消费爆发式增长，海南免税火爆 文旅：9天国内超6亿人次出游，旅游收入近8000亿元 据文化和旅游部2026年2月23日官方通报，春节假期9天国内旅游出游6.05亿人次，同比增长20%；旅游收入达7920亿元，同比增长17%，人均旅游花费同 比提升约10%。文旅订单量同比增长60%，"北上冰雪、南下避寒"的季节性特征依然鲜明，哈尔滨滑雪、海南避寒游订单双双翻倍。 据国家电影局统计，截至2月24日9：00，2026年春节档票房为57.52亿元，平均票价同比降低6%，观影人次为1.20亿。当中，春节档票房前三名分别为 《飞驰人生3》29.27亿元、《惊蛰无声》8.68亿元、《镖人：风起大漠》8.06亿元。2026年电影总票房为83.35亿元，观影人次为1.87亿。 海南离岛免税：春节期间销售金额27.2亿元，同比猛涨30.8% 2026年 ...

2026 年春节社服行业数据点评 20260223 具体子行业在 2026 年春节期间有哪些亮点？ 在交通出行方面，与之密切相关的酒店业在 2025 年双位数下滑的低基数上实 现显著正增长。限时饮品方面，如茶百道和沪上阿姨分别实现双位数和高个位 数的单店或同店增长。此外，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 19%，虽然较 1 月 日本通过短期直接刺激与中长期制度优化相结合的综合政策路径提升服 务消费发展，如 Go To Campaign 和完善休假制度，为中国当前服务 消费政策提供了参考借鉴意义。 餐饮行业重点推荐瑞幸、古茗、蜜雪和百胜。海底捞创始人回归，推动 红石榴计划。九毛九旗下太二餐厅调改效果逐渐显现。建议关注陕西旅 游，主要项目包括长恨歌演艺和华山索道。 份 40%的增速有所放缓，但仍表现良好。 你们对社服行业未来发展的总体观点是什么？ 摘要 春节期间社服行业复苏明显，交通出行提速，铁路增速达 10.7%，民航 增长 8%，酒店业在低基数上实现显著增长，海南离岛免税销售额同比 增长 19%，表明消费环境企稳，休闲需求强劲。 看好社服行业配置价值，政策刺激效果尚未完全显现，但需求已呈现企 稳回升迹象，政策支持服 ...

【海南免税春节前四天速递】由于今年春节首日为腊月二十八而非除夕，预计农历同比增速高于公布数据！ 根据海口海关及商务部公开数据，2026年海南离岛免税春节期间核心销售数据整理如下（截至2月20日官方发布 口径）： 2.海关口径：春节假期前三天（2月15日/腊月二十八-17日/正月初一）海南离岛免税购物金额达6.8亿元，同比去年 同期（2025年1月28日/除夕-1月30日/正月初二）增长18.9%; 数据点评 根据海口海关及商务部公开数据，2026年海南离岛免税春节期间核心销售数据整理如下（截至2月20日官方发布 口径）： 1.海关口径：春节假期首日（2月15/腊月二十八） 海南离岛免税购物金额达2.57亿元 ，同比同期（2025年1月28日/ 除夕）/+135.8%，购物人数 3.86万人次/+114.4%，购物件数 18.4万件/+105%； 3.商务厅口径：春节假期前四天（2月15日/腊月二十八-18日/正月初二），海南离岛免税销售额累计达9.7亿元，同 比去年同期（2025年1月28日/除夕-1月31日/正月初三）增长15.8%。 1.海关口径：春节假期首日（2月15/腊月二十八） 海南离岛免税购物金额 ...

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 升值、资金宽松，中国资产开门红 [Table_Title2] ——2026 春节经济与市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 国内：假日经济稳健增长，出行人数、旅游消费保 持扩张，房地产销售改善 2026 年 2 月 2 日(腊月十五)至 2 月 21 日(正月初五)，全社会跨区域 人员流动量 508011.5 万人次，较 2025 年增长约 5.5%。 1）超长假期与全国整体适宜天气双重利好下，旅游出行表现火热。 商务部数据显示假期前三天，重点平台国内游消费增长 4.5%。 2）春节消费保持增长。商务部数据显示，假期前四天，全国重点零 售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%；假期前三天，重点监测步 行街（商圈）客流量、营业额同比增长 4.5%和 4.8%。 3）商品房销售改善。除夕至初五，30 城商品房成交面积 7.25 万平 方米，较 2025 年回升 54%，已接近 2024 年水平。开年以来，以上海 为首的核心城市二手房成交有回暖迹象，部分刚需开始逐步释放。 ► 海外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration have announced a "zero tariff" policy for inbound goods consumed by residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, effective immediately [2] - During the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion trips, setting a new historical record [2] - The duty-free sector is anticipated to see a return to stable profit margins, while the restaurant and hotel sectors are expected to benefit from overall industry value enhancement [1][3] Duty-Free Sector - Hainan has approved 15 duty-free operators, including 6 domestic and 3 foreign companies, with 202 product categories primarily focused on daily necessities [3] - Since the implementation of the new duty-free policy, shopping amounts have exceeded 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [3] - The first month of duty-free sales in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is expected to stabilize and improve by 2026, with a focus on enhancing the overall value chain and operational capabilities [1][7] - The hotel market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with RevPAR showing slight improvements, particularly in tourist-heavy areas like Sanya [7][8] - The overall hotel supply is stabilizing, with a focus on optimizing supply chain and operational efficiency [9] Restaurant Sector - The restaurant industry is entering a phase of supply-side optimization, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand strength [10][12] - The competitive landscape remains intense, with leading brands benefiting from supply chain advantages and operational efficiencies [11][13] - The overall chain rate in the restaurant sector is steadily increasing, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage segment [13] Tourism and Leisure Sector - The tourism sector is a key driver for domestic demand, with policies expected to continue supporting growth through 2026 [15][16] - The upcoming Spring Festival is projected to see significant increases in travel bookings, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% in service reservations [14] - The government aims to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center in Hainan [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Sector - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from the overall quality and brand effect of Chinese manufacturing, with significant market share growth in overseas markets [19] - The U.S. is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may positively impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [19] - Companies are adapting to new competitive environments, leveraging strong supply chains and product quality to drive growth [19][20]

万联证券指出，随着海南覆盖快消品到中高端奢侈品的商品供应链建立与完善，叠加岛民免税政策有望 在购物额度、商品种类等方面进一步放宽，海南对于国内外游客的旅游吸引力及相关产业人才的安居吸 引力将显著增强，海南离岛免税零售商也将从中持续受益。国盛证券认为，预计海南离岛免税行业景气 趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 中国中免午前股价上涨8.95%，现报102.30港元，成交额3.98亿港元。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中国中免（01880）午前股价上涨8.95%，现报102.30港元，成交额3.98亿港元。 万联证券指出，随着海南覆盖快消品到中高端奢侈品的商品供应链建立与完善，叠加岛民免税政策有望 在购物额度、商品种类等方面进一步放宽，海南对于国内外游客的旅游吸引力及相关产业人才的安居吸 引力将显著增强，海南离岛免税零售商也将从中持续受益。国盛证券认为，预计海南离岛免税行业景气 趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 责任编辑：卢昱君 中国中免（01880）午前股价上涨8.95%，现报102.30港元，成交额3.98亿港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 万联证券指出，随着海南覆盖快消品到中高端奢侈品的商品供应链建立与完善，叠加岛民免税政策有望 在购物额度、商品种类等方面进一步放宽，海南对于国内外游客的旅游吸引力及相关产业人才的安居吸 引力将显著增强，海南离岛免税零售商也将从中持续受益。国盛证券认为，预计海南离岛免税行业景气 趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...