Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

4 月 29 日晚，中国中免正式公布了 2025 年 1 季度财报。由于不久前海豚投研刚详细点评过年度业绩，且 A 股季报披露的信息相当有限，本次就仅做一个简要的 快评： 1、最差时间已过？收入下滑趋于收窄 ：25 年一季度公司总收入 167.5 亿元，同比跌幅明显收窄到 11% 。虽然尚未完全扭转收入下滑的趋势，但相比之前 3 个季 度 20% 上下的收入跌幅，但 出现了初步的企稳迹象 ，最差的时间可能已经过去。 结合整体离岛免税行业的数据看，在海南旅游旺季、也是对免税行业最重要的 1 季度，海南岛接待游客数增长已同比回正到 6%。但 离岛免税购物人次和消费件数 仍同比分别下降了 28% 和 26%， 可见 "只看不买"、游客到消费者的转化率仍然偏低。 所幸 离岛免税客单价同比显著增长 19.5% 到 1,153 元， 在 持续的免税品销售结构逐渐向高价商品倾斜 的帮助下，虽然销售量仍比较萎靡， 本季离岛免税的销售 额同比跌幅已收窄到 11% 。相比先前 3 个季度 40% 上下的同比跌幅也是显著好转，同样呈现出最差情况已过的信号。 2、毛利率跌幅同样企稳： 伴随着营收跌幅的缩窄，中免在去年四季度呈现的重要 ...