[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Feb 2026 中国可选消费 China (A-share) Discretionary 春节海南离岛免税数据健康回归，26 年销售额增速预期提升 Consumer Channel Pulse: Hainan Offshore Duty-free Sales Showed Healthy and Normalized over Chinese New Year, with Sales Growth Forecast for 2026 Expected to Rise 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 骆雅丽 Yali Luo yy.kou@htisec.com yl.luo@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2026 年 2 月 24 日，海通国际举办海南免税专家会，邀请海南免税专家分享春节期间海南免税数据观点与 26 年行业收入展望与趋势。 春节数据 ...

2月24日，中国中免跌停，A股和H股的市值蒸发超190亿元。 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 农历新年A股开市首日，沪深北三大指数上行，超4000多家公司股票上涨，"免税茅"中国中免（601888.SH， 01880.HK）却跌停。 公司股票意外跌停，可能与京沪机场免税经营权的相关事宜相关。对此，中国中免回应称，公司确实失去了上海 机场部分经营权。 此前，中国中免通过控股子公司经营京沪机场长达26年。 在海南，中国中免的竞争对手也有所增加。尽管中国中免仍然占据了中国免税市场大部分份额，但其面临的竞争 在加剧。 还有消息称，中国中免股价大跌与境外关税政策变化影响相关，政策不确定性使市场担忧免税行业盈利预期受影 响。 中国中免的经营业绩增长承压。继2024年营收、盈利双降后，2025年前三季度，公司经营业绩延续下滑趋势，当 期归母净利润为30.52亿元，同比下降22.13%。 失去上海机场部分经营权 A股迎来马年开门红，中国中免股价却闪崩跌停。 2月24日早盘，A股市场上，中国中免低开至88元/股，低开幅度为7.02%。开盘后，股价有过2分钟的挣扎，随即 闪崩下跌，迅速跌停。至全天交易结束，仍然被封死在跌停 ...

2026 年春节社服行业数据点评 20260223 具体子行业在 2026 年春节期间有哪些亮点？ 在交通出行方面，与之密切相关的酒店业在 2025 年双位数下滑的低基数上实 现显著正增长。限时饮品方面，如茶百道和沪上阿姨分别实现双位数和高个位 数的单店或同店增长。此外，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 19%，虽然较 1 月 日本通过短期直接刺激与中长期制度优化相结合的综合政策路径提升服 务消费发展，如 Go To Campaign 和完善休假制度，为中国当前服务 消费政策提供了参考借鉴意义。 餐饮行业重点推荐瑞幸、古茗、蜜雪和百胜。海底捞创始人回归，推动 红石榴计划。九毛九旗下太二餐厅调改效果逐渐显现。建议关注陕西旅 游，主要项目包括长恨歌演艺和华山索道。 份 40%的增速有所放缓，但仍表现良好。 你们对社服行业未来发展的总体观点是什么？ 摘要 春节期间社服行业复苏明显，交通出行提速，铁路增速达 10.7%，民航 增长 8%，酒店业在低基数上实现显著增长，海南离岛免税销售额同比 增长 19%，表明消费环境企稳，休闲需求强劲。 看好社服行业配置价值，政策刺激效果尚未完全显现，但需求已呈现企 稳回升迹象，政策支持服 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [10]. Core Insights - The establishment of new duty-free shops at entry ports is expected to synergize with city duty-free stores, collectively expanding the domestic duty-free market [2][4]. - The recent notification from multiple government departments allows for the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 entry ports, significantly increasing the convenience for inbound travelers to shop duty-free [4]. - The report recommends specific stocks, including China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, while also mentioning Zhuhai Duty Free Group as a related stock [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the collaboration between newly established entry port duty-free shops and existing city duty-free stores to enhance the overall market size [2]. Investment Highlights - The report notes that the new duty-free shops will allow travelers to purchase a certain amount of duty-free goods (up to 15,000 yuan) upon entry, thus facilitating increased consumer spending [4]. - The policy changes effective from November 1, 2025, will expand the product categories available in duty-free shops, including mobile phones, drones, sports goods, health foods, over-the-counter drugs, and pet foods [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides profit forecasts and valuations for key stocks, indicating that China Duty Free Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 42.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected PE ratio of 46 [5]. - Wangfujing is projected to have a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 65 [5].

证券日报网讯1月19日，珠免集团（600185）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，为准确体现公司战略 转型规划，突出主业属性并延续品牌价值，公司已于2025年5月完成公司名称与证券简称的修改，变更 后公司证券简称为"珠免集团"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Duty Free Group has secured the operation rights for the T3 duty-free store at Beijing Capital International Airport, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [1] - The overall operating area at the airport has decreased compared to the previous round due to bidding requirements, but the company's performance is expected to benefit [1] - T3 handles over 80% of international passengers at the airport, and despite a reduction in revenue scale, the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase [1] Group 2 - The company's operational status is expected to continue improving against the backdrop of a recovery in offshore duty-free sales and the ongoing restoration of inbound and outbound travel by 2026 [1] - Long-term support for policies regarding Hainan, port, and city duty-free stores is anticipated to open up long-term development opportunities for the company [1] - Due to the recovery in offshore duty-free sales and the restoration of inbound and outbound travel, profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been revised upward, and the rating has been upgraded to "Buy" [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Duty Free Group's year-end celebration "Crazy Shopping Season" successfully concluded on January 4, featuring a blend of policy benefits, festive culture, and premium offerings, showcasing an innovative model of "duty-free + tourism" [1] Group 1: Event Highlights - The year-end celebration included three main chapters: "Kickoff Carnival," "Customs Gift," and "New Year Carnival," creating a memorable experience for global consumers [1] - The New Year celebration culminated in a "New Year No-Sleep Night" across six stores in Hainan, featuring continuous activities and immersive experiences [3] - CDF Sanya International Duty Free City hosted a nine-hour "Island Hot Party" with performances, cash prizes, and a drone show, enhancing the festive atmosphere [3] Group 2: Innovative Experiences - CDF Haikou International Duty Free City launched the "C Star Landing Plan," allowing consumers to engage in immersive experiences while shopping [4] - Various activities across the island, such as DIY workshops and surprise blind boxes, spread the festive joy throughout Hainan [4] Group 3: Shopping Promotions - The New Year celebration also served as a significant shopping event, with the company offering substantial discounts across multiple product categories, including luxury goods and electronics [6] - The online channel, CDF Hainan official mall, provided additional promotions, including low discounts and loyalty points, enhancing the shopping experience [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The entire year-end celebration demonstrated the company's ability to create impactful marketing events and innovate within the "duty-free + tourism" model, contributing to the prosperity of the winter tourism market [8] - The company plans to leverage the advantages of the Hainan Free Trade Port policy and continue leading the duty-free industry through innovative marketing strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group has won bids for duty-free projects at Beijing Capital International Airport and Shanghai airports, enhancing its market position and potentially improving future financial performance [2][3] Group 1: Project Wins - China Duty Free Group's subsidiary has been awarded the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480 million yuan in the first year and a sales commission rate of 5% [2] - The company also secured duty-free store projects at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports, with store areas of approximately 9,631 square meters and 2,471 square meters, respectively, and a commission rate ranging from 8% to 24% [2] - A joint venture with Shanghai Airport has been established with an investment of 102 million yuan, where China Duty Free Group holds a 51% stake [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The exit of Sunrise Duty Free, which has operated in Shanghai airports for 26 years, allows China Duty Free Group to strengthen its position in the core airport duty-free market [3] - Sunrise's exit was influenced by decisions made by China Duty Free Group's board, which rejected Sunrise's bid for the Shanghai airport project [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - China Duty Free Group's revenue fell by 16.36% year-on-year to 56.492 billion yuan, with net profit dropping 36.5% to 4.263 billion yuan, marking a six-year low [5][6] - In the first three quarters of the current year, revenue was 39.86 billion yuan, and net profit was 4.42 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 7.34% and 18.89%, respectively [6] Group 4: Industry Trends - The international flight reduction during 2020-2021 led to a significant decline in outbound consumption, shifting traditional duty-free spending to domestic markets [8] - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales surged by 200% in 2021, with significant visitor numbers, but the recovery of international flights has caused a downturn for China Duty Free Group [8][10] - Recent data indicates a recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with a notable increase in sales and customer traffic following the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group has won multiple bids for duty-free projects at major airports, enhancing its market position and expected to positively impact future business performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Bid Announcements - China Duty Free Group's subsidiary has been awarded the bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a minimum operating fee of 480 million yuan in the first year and a sales commission of 5% [2]. - The company also secured contracts for duty-free stores at Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, with a joint investment of 102 million yuan, where China Duty Free Group holds a 51% stake [3]. Group 2: Business Impact - The successful implementation of these projects is expected to enhance the company's channel advantages at key domestic airports, catering to diverse shopping needs of inbound and outbound travelers, and promoting high-quality development of airport duty-free business [2][4]. - In the first three quarters of the year, China Duty Free Group reported revenues of 39.86 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.34% and 18.89% respectively [4]. Group 3: Membership and Policy Updates - The company has over 45 million members, with increasing activity, consumption share, and repurchase rates, including an online repurchase rate exceeding 35% [4]. - China Duty Free Group emphasizes the continuous optimization of duty-free policies, citing the recent adjustments to the Hainan offshore duty-free policy as an example of ongoing improvements to adapt to market demands [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market and its response to macroeconomic conditions, particularly influenced by U.S. economic data and monetary policy expectations [1][2][4][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Weak U.S. non-farm data and rising unemployment (4.6%) alongside a decrease in core CPI growth (2.6%) strengthen expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in the coming year [2][4]. 2. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: November economic data in China shows a decline in consumption and investment, with retail sales growth at a three-year low of 1.3%. However, achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year remains feasible [4][14]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound towards the end of the year and early next year, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips to capitalize on the upcoming spring market [1][5]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three key areas for investment: - **Technology**: Including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, semiconductors, and robotics, which are supported by policy and active funding [5]. - **Domestic Demand Expansion**: Opportunities in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and home appliances due to policies promoting domestic consumption [5][12]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: With expectations of PPI turning positive, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and renewable energy are highlighted [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, remains attractive with expected yields between 1.6% and 1.9%, with current yields above the central tendency of 1.75% [8]. 2. **Risk Appetite**: Changes in risk appetite will influence equity market performance, with a balanced approach recommended between growth and value stocks [9]. 3. **Electronic Communication Sector**: The sector is poised for growth due to favorable liquidity conditions, with a focus on advanced semiconductor processes and packaging [10]. 4. **Storage Device Opportunities**: Companies in the storage device sector are expected to benefit from government support and fiscal subsidies, with specific recommendations for firms like Zhongwei and Huazhong [11]. 5. **Consumer Sector Recovery**: The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in tourism and duty-free industries, with specific brands identified as having strong growth potential [13]. 6. **Macroeconomic Environment**: The overall macroeconomic environment is weak, but there is optimism for policy measures that could stimulate the market, particularly as the new year approaches [14][15]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating through a period of uncertainty influenced by both domestic and international factors. Strategic investments in technology, domestic demand, and cyclical sectors are recommended, while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes will be crucial for future market performance [1][5][14].