Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.81% year-on-year [2][6] - For the second quarter alone, revenue was 11.405 billion yuan, a decline of 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 662 million yuan, down 32.21% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.292 billion yuan, 4.364 billion yuan, and 4.520 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 33.22, 32.67, and 31.54 [2][6] Revenue Analysis - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai showed declines, with Hainan's revenue at 15.031 billion yuan (down 10.45% year-on-year) and Shanghai's at 6.870 billion yuan (down 19.18% year-on-year) [6] - The company's market share in Hainan's duty-free sector increased by nearly 1 percentage point, indicating strong operational capabilities despite overall revenue declines [6] - Duty-free revenue was 20.343 billion yuan (down 6.13% year-on-year), while taxable revenue was 7.189 billion yuan (down 21.50% year-on-year) [6] Profitability Insights - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 32.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The increase in expenses was noted, with sales, management, and R&D expenses showing slight increases [6] Industry Outlook - The duty-free and tourism retail sectors are expected to benefit from the positive outlook of the tourism industry, which is a significant part of China's economy and a key driver of domestic demand [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the duty-free industry, leveraging its advantages in channels, scale, and brand management [6]

中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告摘要 公司代码：601888 公司简称：中国中免 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告摘要 第一节 重要提示 展规划，投资者应当到 www.sse.com.cn、www.hkexnews.hk 网站仔细阅读半年度报告全文。 完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 无 第二节 公司基本情况 公司股票简况 股票种类 股票上市交易所 股票简称 股票代码 变更前股票简称 A股 上海证券交易所 中国中免 601888 中国国旅 H股 香港联交所 中國中免 1880 / 联系人和联系方式 董事会秘书 证券事务代表 姓名 杨洪义 郑铁球 电话 010-84479696 010-84479696 北京市东城区东直门外小街甲 北京市东城区东直门外小街甲 办公地址 电子信箱 cdfir@ctg.cn cdfir@ctg.cn 单位：元 币种：人民币 本报告期末比上年 本报告期末 上年度末 度末增减(%) 总资产 75,009,129,240.57 76,260,373,740.60 -1.45 归属于 ...

Company Overview - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is a leading duty-free operator in China, primarily engaged in the retail of duty-free goods. The company operates duty-free stores in key cities and airport ports across the country, offering a wide range of products including tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, luxury goods, and food [1]. Stock Performance - The latest stock price of China Duty Free is 65.65 yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan from the previous trading day. The stock reached a high of 66.18 yuan and a low of 65.32 yuan during the trading session, with a total trading volume of 1.04 billion yuan. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.12 times, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.46 times [1]. New Store Opening - The first city duty-free store in Guangzhou is set to open on August 26. This store is a collaboration between CDFG and several enterprises, located in the Tianhe District at the Guangzhou Friendship National Gold Store. It will offer a diverse range of products, including beauty and skincare items, watches and jewelry, and high-end alcoholic beverages. Several promotional activities will be launched during the opening period [1]. Capital Flow - Capital flow data indicates that CDFG experienced a net inflow of 14.91 million yuan on the day of reporting, with a cumulative net inflow of 27.39 million yuan over the past five days [2].

Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 16.746 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.96% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.938 billion yuan, down 15.98% [1]. - The decline in duty-free sales has been narrowing, with a recovery in average transaction value, although shopping conversion rates remain a challenge. The duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for Q1 2025 was 11.31 billion yuan, down 11.4%, with the number of shoppers decreasing by 27.8% [2]. - The international passenger flow is recovering significantly, with Q1 2025 international passenger traffic at major airports showing increases of 20% to 26% compared to the previous year, suggesting a positive trend for duty-free sales [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a recovery trend [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.0%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.6%, down 0.7 percentage points [2]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 56.474 billion yuan in 2024 to 72.772 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.25% [5].

4 月 29 日晚，中国中免正式公布了 2025 年 1 季度财报。由于不久前海豚投研刚详细点评过年度业绩，且 A 股季报披露的信息相当有限，本次就仅做一个简要的 快评： 1、最差时间已过？收入下滑趋于收窄 ：25 年一季度公司总收入 167.5 亿元，同比跌幅明显收窄到 11% 。虽然尚未完全扭转收入下滑的趋势，但相比之前 3 个季 度 20% 上下的收入跌幅，但 出现了初步的企稳迹象 ，最差的时间可能已经过去。 结合整体离岛免税行业的数据看，在海南旅游旺季、也是对免税行业最重要的 1 季度，海南岛接待游客数增长已同比回正到 6%。但 离岛免税购物人次和消费件数 仍同比分别下降了 28% 和 26%， 可见 "只看不买"、游客到消费者的转化率仍然偏低。 所幸 离岛免税客单价同比显著增长 19.5% 到 1,153 元， 在 持续的免税品销售结构逐渐向高价商品倾斜 的帮助下，虽然销售量仍比较萎靡， 本季离岛免税的销售 额同比跌幅已收窄到 11% 。相比先前 3 个季度 40% 上下的同比跌幅也是显著好转，同样呈现出最差情况已过的信号。 2、毛利率跌幅同样企稳： 伴随着营收跌幅的缩窄，中免在去年四季度呈现的重要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in performance for 2024, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% [6] - The company is focusing on the growth of city duty-free stores as the offshore duty-free sales are under pressure [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, which accounts for 50.91% of the 2024 net profit [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 66.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 4.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 30% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% [5][8]