全动态估值
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A股TTM、全动态估值全景扫描:A股估值扩张,钢铁行业领涨
Western Securities· 2026-02-28 10:21
Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the steel industry leading the gains. The weak accumulation of winter storage for steel this year has resulted in lower inventory pressure, and the seasonal increase in steel demand post-holiday, combined with strong price recovery expectations due to PPI rebound, supports a rebound in the steel sector. The current full dynamic valuation of the steel industry is at the historical 45.3 percentile, indicating further room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 23.10 times last week to 23.59 times this week, while the PB (LF) rose from 1.86 times to 1.90 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) rose from 18.37 times to 18.79 times, and PB (LF) increased from 1.54 times to 1.57 times [18]. - The ChiNext board's PE (TTM) increased from 77.83 times to 80.11 times, and PB (LF) rose from 4.59 times to 4.69 times [20]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation board's PE (TTM) decreased from 227.96 times to 208.25 times, while PB (LF) increased from 5.75 times to 5.82 times [23]. Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and consumer staples have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median. Notably, consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing are above the historical 90th percentile, while essential consumer goods, services, and financial services have relative valuations below the historical 10th percentile [28]. - In terms of PB (LF), industries like resources, cyclical, midstream manufacturing, TMT, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with resources and cyclical industries exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, consumer staples, services, financial services, and essential consumer goods have both absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with relative valuations below the historical 10th percentile [31]. - Analyzing full dynamic PE, industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while financial services and essential consumer goods are below the historical median, with consumer staples having relative valuations below the historical 10th percentile [33]. Performance and Yield Comparison - Current industries like construction materials, power equipment, media, non-bank financials, and steel exhibit both low valuations and high performance growth, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][52]. - The A-share non-financial equity risk premium (ERP) decreased from 0.70% to 0.63%, and the equity-bond yield spread fell from -0.20% to -0.25% this week [53].
A股TTM、全动态估值全景扫描:A股估值收缩,银行行业领涨
Western Securities· 2025-10-18 13:16
Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the banking sector leading the gains. The previous dominance of the technology growth sector led to a continuous outflow of funds from the banking sector, resulting in a significant correction. Currently, the banking sector, which has defensive attributes, is experiencing a recovery phase. The overall PB (LF) of the banking industry is at the historical 22.8 percentile, indicating substantial room for recovery [1][8]. Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 22.47 times last week to 22.00 times this week, while the PB (LF) fell from 1.81 times to 1.77 times [10]. - The overall dynamic PE of key A-share companies dropped from 15.19 times to 14.93 times [14]. A-Share Valuation Details - The PE (TTM) of the main board decreased from 17.90 times to 17.71 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 1.51 times to 1.49 times [17][18]. - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board decreased from 97.70 times to 75.51 times, and the PB (LF) dropped from 4.38 times to 4.15 times [19][20]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation board decreased from 258.35 times to 246.87 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.46 times to 5.14 times [21][22]. Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resources, decreased from 5.41 times to 5.09 times, and the relative PB (LF) fell from 5.04 times to 4.74 times [23][25]. Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, consumer staples, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, resource and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with services and essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [27][28]. - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, and cyclical industries have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while midstream materials, financial services, services, consumer staples, and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28]. Dynamic Valuation Analysis - From a dynamic PE perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Essential consumer sectors have both absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with essential consumer relative valuations below the historical 10th percentile [36]. Comparative Analysis of Odds and Winning Rates - Industries such as oil and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and public utilities exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [58]. - Industries like building materials, electrical equipment, basic chemicals, and media show both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.81% last week to 0.92% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.21% to -0.06% [63]. - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial A-share companies rose from 2.77% to 2.96% [68].