有机构表示，当前A股估值仍有吸引力，且作为"牛市旗手"的券商板块目前年内涨幅偏低，天然存在补涨空间。展望四季度，在经济基本面保持 平稳、增量资金持续流入、全球流动性宽松的大背景下，A股有望继续维持震荡向上的大趋势。证券行业景气上行趋势未改，仍是年内不可多 得的相对低估+业绩同比高增的细分资产。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 受盘面影响，多只证券相关ETF涨约2%。 | 代码 | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 516980 | 策 证券ETF先锋 | 1.265 | 0.027 | 2.18% | | 513090 | 覧 香港证券ETF T+0 | 2.370 | 0.046 | 1.98% | | 159993 | 主 证券ETF龙头 | 1.386 | 0.026 | 1.91% | | 516730 | H 证券公司ETF | 1.152 | 0.021 | 1.86% | | 512070 | 主 证券保险ETF | 0.887 | 0.016 | 1.84% | 券商股早盘走强，国信证券涨超7%，广发证券涨超5% ...

对于资本市场改革，李迅雷认为，应平衡IPO推进与投资者利益，增强市场包容性与吸引力。"上市资 源宝贵，既要支持企业融资，也要通过改善公司治理、提高机构投资者比重，提升市场活力。"他强 调，政策工具箱仍有充足工具，对市场可保持谨慎乐观，但需理性看待短期波动，聚焦具备真实成长性 的领域。 针对市场结构性特征，李迅雷提到，当前A股存在冷热不均现象，科创50指数市盈率已达170多倍，需 警惕"讲故事"的估值风险。"A股投资者长期偏好题材炒作，部分高估值板块需注意业绩证伪风险。"同 时，他建议分散配置资产，"美股估值偏高，未来10年年化收益率或下降，可考虑A股、港股、债券、 黄金等多市场配置，降低单一市场风险"。 在政策与经济展望方面，李迅雷表示，当前居民部门处于资产负债表缩表阶段，房地产下行周期对需求 的拖累仍在持续，叠加人口老龄化与居民收入增速放缓，扩内需需高度重视。他呼吁，四季度或明年需 继续加大财政与货币政策力度，通过降息、积极财政政策提振需求，同时推进改革破解发展难题。 对于市场热度，李迅雷认为当前处于适中水平，尚未出现明显泡沫。"上证综指、沪深300指数市盈率处 于历史平均中位数附近，属于理性投资区间。"不 ...

在第十九届上市公司价值评选专家研讨会上，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷指出，当前A股整体估值处 于合理区间，长期牛市需依赖上市公司业绩持续增长，同时强调内需不足与房地产下行压力仍需政策发 力应对。 从市场驱动逻辑来看，李迅雷分析，年初至今A股的涨幅，核心动力源于利率下行与场外资金入 市。"市场利率尤其是存款利率下行，叠加中美贸易谈判预期向好，推动资金从房地产和银行存款向资 本市场转移。"他表示，当前居民部门存款余额超160万亿元，其中定期存款约120万亿元，三年期存款 利率已降至1.3%左右，部分到期资金或转向理财与股市，但需理性看待入市规模，"大量银行存款属于 风险偏好极低的'养命钱'，大规模入市可能性较小"。 对于市场热度，李迅雷认为当前处于适中水平，尚未出现明显泡沫。"上证综指、沪深300指数市盈率处 于历史平均中位数附近，属于理性投资区间。"不过，李迅雷强调，成长性才是决定市场长期走势的关 键。"中国制造业全球份额近1/3，在先进制造、数字经济等领域具备优势，这是A股的核心亮点。"他指 出，2025年上半年A股上市公司净利润同比增长2.5%，但整体盈利增速仍显不足，"若未来几年上市公 司盈利增速能进一步提 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场高位震荡，Wind 全 A 收涨 1.37%，成交额 2.18 万亿元。中 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.36%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.51%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.54%， 上证 50 指数上涨 1.09%。根据政治局会议通报，二十届四中全会将于 10 月 | | | | 20 日在京召开。市场需密切关注长假期间相关政策议题的发布和进展。美联 | | | | 储降息 25BP，但表态相对谨慎，其内部对于年内降息路径存在分化，权益市 | | | | 场涨跌不一，目前市场预计年内降息 3 次。国内外流动性宽松的背景以及 A | | | 股指 | 股估值抬升的逻辑并没有明显变化，预计短期波动率可能增加，长期存在继 | 偏强 | | | 续冲高的力量。自 11 月起，当政策预期尘埃落定，市场可能逐渐回归基本 | | | | 面交易，届时需关注 A 股三季报中营收同比增速是否相较二季度显著回升， | | | | 由此判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the valuation metrics of various A-share indices, highlighting the current market conditions and sector performance in terms of price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, as well as other financial indicators. Valuation Metrics Summary - The overall A-share market has a P/E ratio of 17.2 and a P/B ratio of 1.79, with P/E percentile at 35.6% and P/B percentile at 23.28% [3]. - The North Star 50 index shows a notably high P/E ratio of 53.03, with a percentile of 97.24%, indicating a potentially overvalued market segment [4]. - The ChiNext index has a P/E ratio of 38.52, with a percentile of 34.73%, suggesting a relatively lower valuation compared to other indices [4]. Sector Performance Summary - The semiconductor sector has a high P/E percentile of 93.93, indicating strong investor interest and potentially high growth expectations [4]. - The insurance sector, in contrast, has a very low P/E percentile of 0.99, suggesting it may be undervalued compared to other sectors [4]. - The real estate sector has a P/E ratio of 30.53 with a percentile of 58.75%, reflecting moderate valuation levels [4]. Style Index Analysis - The CTV 50 index has a P/E ratio of 9.51, with a percentile of 74.08%, indicating a relatively high valuation among style indices [6]. - The dividend low volatility index shows a P/E ratio of 7.88, with a percentile of 73.30%, suggesting it is also highly valued [7]. - The small-cap growth index has a P/E ratio of 28.98, with a percentile of 67.19%, indicating a strong growth outlook [7].

Market Overview - The market showed a strong rebound in the early session, with the ChiNext Index recovering from a dip and the CSI A500 Index rising by 0.57% [1] - The chip industry chain experienced rapid growth, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a collective decline [1] ETF Performance - Several ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index saw slight increases in trading volume, with 12 ETFs exceeding a trading volume of 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 2.7 billion yuan [1] - Specific trading volumes for A500 ETFs included 3.848 billion yuan for A500 ETF Fund, 2.849 billion yuan for CSI A500 ETF, and 2.762 billion yuan for A500 ETF Southern [1] Investment Sentiment - Analysts indicated that the current valuation of A-shares remains attractive, with future "anti-involution" policies and demand-side policies being crucial for determining the market's upward potential [1] - The influx of household savings into the market is expected to support the strengthening of market indices, suggesting that the foundation for a slow bull market still exists [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors' valuations and historical percentiles, indicating potential investment opportunities and areas of caution [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of September 12, 2025, with the overall market PE at 21.5 times, indicating it is at the 81st percentile historically [2][5]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic), National Defense, Automation Equipment, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][3]. - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases in the supply chain, while the battery materials market shows mixed price movements [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of various indices and sectors, highlighting that the ChiNext Index has a PE of 42.3 times, at the 39th percentile historically, while the STAR 50 Index has a PE of 184.3 times, at the 100th percentile [2][5]. - The report indicates that no industries are currently in the historical 15th percentile or below for both PE and PB valuations [2][3]. Sector-Specific Summaries New Energy - Photovoltaic prices are rising, with upstream polysilicon prices down by 5.5% and downstream battery prices up by 0.3% [2][3]. - The report notes a 7.5% year-on-year increase in domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in August 2025, although growth is expected to slow in the coming months [2][3]. Real Estate Chain - The report indicates a 1.0% decrease in rebar prices and a 1.2% increase in cement prices, reflecting a mixed outlook for the construction materials sector [2][3]. Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.1%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.2%, indicating a weak market for pork [2][3]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor market saw a 10.4% year-on-year increase in sales in July 2025, although growth is slowing due to inventory adjustments [2][3]. Cyclical Industries - The report highlights a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, while coal prices show mixed trends [2][3]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, such as Real Estate at a PE of -6.9 and Steel at -1047.8, indicating significant challenges in these sectors [2][8]. Overall Market Trends - The report notes that the overall market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with some sectors showing resilience while others face headwinds due to economic conditions and policy changes [2][3].

Group 1 - The current valuation of the ChiNext board is still in an undervalued period, with the 10-year price-to-earnings ratio percentile remaining below 50%, indicating that the index still offers good cost-performance for allocation [1] - According to China Galaxy Securities, the overall valuation level of A-shares is in a reasonable range, but there are significant differences among industries, with some industries being overvalued while others are undervalued but showing notable profit improvements [1] - As of September 1, 2025, the ChiNext index has seen a decline of 3.71%, with component stocks showing mixed performance, highlighting the volatility within the sector [3] Group 2 - The ChiNext ETF from Ping An has seen a net value increase of 21.31% over the past three years, ranking in the top two among comparable funds, indicating strong performance [4] - The ChiNext ETF has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds, suggesting cost efficiency [4] - As of September 1, 2025, the ChiNext ETF has a tracking error of 0.016% over the past three months, demonstrating its close tracking of the ChiNext index [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.18% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3877.09, with a trading volume of 83.17 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12817.03, with a trading volume of 112.92 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2951.03, with a trading volume of 48.79 billion [2] Industry Insights - According to Galaxy Securities, A-share valuations are still within a reasonable range, with some industries showing high valuations while others are undervalued but showing significant profit improvements [2] - The overall net profit of A-share companies increased by 2.45% year-on-year, with non-financial sectors showing a 1.04% increase [2] - The absolute valuation of A-shares remains lower than that of U.S. stocks, indicating potential for significant upward movement [2] Real Estate Sector - GF Securities believes that the pressure from semi-annual report earnings has been released, and there is potential for elasticity in the real estate sector [3] - September is seen as a critical window for making decisions regarding real estate sector allocations, with market expectations stabilizing [3] Banking Sector - Zhongtai Securities continues to favor the stability and sustainability of bank stocks, noting a shift in their operating model from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [4] - Bank stocks are expected to attract investors during periods of economic stagnation due to their high dividend yields [4] - Two investment lines are highlighted: regional banks with strong certainty and high-dividend stable banks [4]

Group 1 - The overall market showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index leading gains while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.75 trillion, a decrease of 48.3 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.29% [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities stated that the current A-share valuation is still within a reasonable range, although there are significant differences across industries. The overall net profit of A-share companies increased by 2.45% year-on-year, with non-financial sectors showing a 1.04% increase [2] - The report highlighted that A-share absolute valuations are still lower than those of U.S. stocks, indicating substantial room for improvement. Certain sectors like finance and transportation infrastructure still possess valuation advantages, presenting structural opportunities [2] - The performance expectations for companies are improving, with a focus on reducing excessive competition [2] Group 3 - GF Securities noted that the pressure from semi-annual report earnings has been released, and they are optimistic about the future elasticity of the real estate sector. September is identified as a crucial window for making decisions regarding real estate sector allocations [3] - The report emphasized that the market atmosphere is gradually forming, and marginal policy changes will increasingly impact the sector. Current valuations are at historical lows, and the pressure from semi-annual earnings has been fully released, particularly for well-performing leading companies [3] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities expressed continued confidence in the stability and sustainability of bank stocks, noting a shift in their operating model and investment logic from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [4] - During periods of economic stagnation, bank stocks with high dividends will remain attractive. The investment focus is on regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian [4]