Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the A-share market is currently in a reasonable valuation range, with no significant overvaluation observed despite recent valuation adjustments in blue-chip stocks [1] Valuation Metrics - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the CSI 300 is around 12.2 times, which is at approximately the 69th percentile historically since 2010, suggesting that A-share valuations are moderate compared to major global markets [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has reached around 100 trillion yuan, with the market capitalization to GDP ratio remaining at a relatively low level among major global markets [1] - The ratio of total market capitalization to M2 is about 33%, which is at the 60th percentile historically, indicating a moderate liquidity position [1] - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is 2.69%, which remains attractive compared to the yield on ten-year government bonds, suggesting that equity assets still hold relative appeal [1] Market Activity and Volatility - There is a need to monitor the rapid increase in trading volume, which may lead to heightened short-term volatility; on August 18, the total market trading volume exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of over 5% based on free float market capitalization [1] - Historical experience indicates that during periods of increased trading activity, short-term index fluctuations may intensify, although this typically does not affect the medium-term market trend [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. A-share valuation has surpassed the 60th percentile, historically indicating a high probability of continued upward movement, driven by fundamental improvements, policy support, and liquidity easing [1][3][4] 2. July economic data was slightly below expectations, but exports showed an unexpected rebound, indicating a recovery trend in the economy and profits, with industrial profits likely entering a recovery cycle [1][6][14] 3. The A-share earnings cycle bottomed in August 2023, with mid-year performance growth improving compared to the first quarter, suggesting a better fundamental situation than indicated by economic data [1][14] 4. Key drivers for the A-share market's upward trend include improvements in fundamentals, positive policy impacts, and external events, alongside liquidity easing [4][19] 5. Historical data shows that when the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeds the 60th percentile, it typically continues to rise, with only one significant downturn linked to external shocks [3][8] 6. The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to significant inflows of funds, with trading volumes exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan and new fund issuance rebounding to approximately 50 billion yuan [18][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The impact of the delay in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to maintain some resilience, although growth rates may slow down in the coming months [9] 2. Domestic demand factors, including consumption, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure investment, are projected to maintain high growth levels despite a slight decline in July [10] 3. Real estate investment remains weak, which could suppress overall economic performance, but the economy is still on a recovery path [11] 4. Industrial profits are closely linked to the Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential for profit recovery if PPI growth improves [12][13] 5. The current liquidity environment is favorable, with expectations of continued fund inflows into the A-share market, supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [16][17] 6. Recommended sectors for investment include technology (robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI applications), and sectors showing potential for fundamental improvement or catch-up, such as batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][22]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

Core Insights - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the communication industry leading the gains. The opening of the channel for computing chips from the US to China, combined with the continuous development of downstream AI models and applications, has kept the computing and its upstream communication equipment in high demand, resulting in a significant rise in the communication equipment sector. The current historical percentile of the full dynamic PE for the communication equipment secondary industry has reached 79.8%, indicating a high level [1][8]. Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 20.68 times last week to 21.08 times this week, while the PB (LF) rose from 1.69 times to 1.74 times [10]. - The overall full dynamic PE of key A-share companies increased from 13.66 times to 13.90 times this week [12]. Sector Valuation Details - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board rose from 68.20 times to 71.57 times, while the PB (LF) increased from 3.83 times to 4.04 times [19]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation board increased from 215.04 times to 227.55 times, and the PB (LF) rose from 3.79 times to 4.65 times [25]. - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, increased from 4.54 times to 4.87 times, and the relative PB (LF) rose from 2.84 times to 4.09 times [27]. Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples are overvalued, while essential consumer and resource sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, computer, textile and apparel, and construction materials are overvalued, while steel and real estate are undervalued [2]. - In terms of PB (LF), consumer discretionary and resource sectors are overvalued, while essential consumer sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, automotive and electronics are relatively high, while construction decoration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and construction materials are undervalued [2]. - The full dynamic PE indicates that consumer discretionary and financial services are relatively high, while essential consumer and resource sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, real estate and computers are relatively high, while food and beverage and social services are undervalued [2]. Comparative Analysis - Current industries such as communication, non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, and agriculture exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2]. - Industries like construction materials, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, media, and automotive show both low valuation and high performance growth [2]. Market Comparison - The A-share non-financial ERP decreased from 1.33% last week to 1.20% this week, and the equity-debt yield spread fell from 0.11% to 0.00% [3][67]. - The full dynamic ERP for key non-financial A-share companies decreased from 3.77% to 3.57% [71].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 19.7 times, positioned at the historical 78th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 29.5 times, at the historical 51st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.1 times, at the historical 16th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 39.7 times, at the historical 55th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 52.1 times, at the historical 69th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 137.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.5 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.5 times, at the historical 7th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - No industries have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices continue to rebound due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 15.5% and spot prices by 17.1% [2][3] - In the battery sector, cobalt and nickel prices decreased by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.1% [2][3] - In June 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a 29.7% increase [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The spot price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while iron ore prices rose by 2.8% [2][3] - The national cement price index decreased by 1.6% due to slow inventory digestion [2][3] - Glass prices saw a slight increase, with spot prices up by 0.5% [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.5%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor increased slightly by 0.04% [2][3] - Corn prices fell by 0.7%, while wheat prices decreased by 0.2% [2][3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in May 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to April [2][3] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 3.1% to $70.63 per barrel, driven by summer travel and power generation demand [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.4% due to rising consumption during the summer peak [2][3]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.4 times, positioned at the historical 77th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.3 times, at the historical 58th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 28.9 times, at the historical 48th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 32.4 times, at the historical 14th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 38.7 times, at the historical 50th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 50.9 times, at the historical 67th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 136.3 times, at the historical 97th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.2 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 6th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, spot prices continue to decline while multi-crystalline silicon futures prices rise by 5.4% due to "anti-involution" policy expectations [2] - The price of silicon wafers decreased by 1.5%, while battery cell prices fell by 3.7% [2] - Lithium prices show mixed trends, with lithium carbonate rising by 2.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate falling by 0.3% [2] Real Estate Chain - In the steel sector, rebar prices increased by 1.3%, and iron ore prices rose by 2.3% [3] - The cement price index decreased by 0.8% due to seasonal demand weakness [3] - Glass prices saw a short-term emotional rebound, with a 1.5% increase in spot prices [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 4.3%, driven by reduced output plans from leading enterprises [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.01% [3] - Corn prices rose by 0.6%, while soybean prices remained stable [3] Technology TMT - Domestic smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from January to May 2025, with leading brands focusing on the high-end market [3] Cyclical Industries - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 1.8%, closing at $68.51 per barrel [3] - The coal price at Qinhuangdao Port rose by 0.5% due to seasonal demand improvements [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 5.6%, indicating a decrease in shipping rates [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that since 2021, the domestic 10-year government bond yield has been on a downward trend, entering a low-interest-rate era, with yields falling below the long-term range of 2.8% to 4.5% [1] - The ability of valuation to rise during a declining interest rate phase depends on the state of the fundamentals; if the economy stabilizes but does not significantly recover, valuations may increase, while in a deflationary environment, valuations may continue to decline despite a loose monetary environment [1] - Currently, the A-share market's 6% to 7% ROE level corresponds to a reasonable 2x PB, but there is significant industry differentiation; economic cycle assets have reasonable valuations but limited ROE recovery, while stable assets have room for improvement in a declining interest rate environment [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, with an average duration of 7.6 years [1] - The ETF publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns as a core allocation [1] - Growth assets are more transaction-oriented, with a focus on positive mid-term expectations in areas such as overseas AI computing power chains, exports to Europe, and price increase chains [1]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 71st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 10.9 times, at the historical 52nd percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.0 times, at the historical 11th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 137.9 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Pharmaceuticals [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Economic Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures decreased by 2.4%, while spot prices remained stable [2][3] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in May 2025 increased by 28.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 0.8%, and iron ore prices decreased by 1.9% [2][3] - The national cement price index rose by 0.1%, indicating some stability in the cement market [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.2%, and the wholesale price of pork fell by 1.0% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor dropped by 0.17% in early June 2025 [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in May 2025 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed significantly [2][3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed at $75.18 per barrel, up 12.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 20.5%, indicating an increase in shipping rates [2][3]