金工报告 | 2025 年 09 月 02 日 证券研究报告 / 金工报告 2025 年 09 月 02 日 经济整体持续向好，推荐关注游戏、航空机场等板块 2025Q2 上市公司行业盈利数据追踪 二季度数据总结 2025Q2 农林牧渔等行业处于相对高景气低估值区间。半年报显示，申万一级行 业 ROE(TTM)数据中，通信、农林牧渔、有色金属、非银金融、食品饮料等行业 位于近十年分位数的高位；建筑装饰、房地产、银行、轻工制造、生物医药、计 算机、电力设备等行业位于近十年分位数的低位。PB 数据维度上，银行、汽车、 国防军工、通信、非银金融等行业位于近三年分位数高位；食品饮料、公用事业、 家用电器等行业位于近三年分位数低位（图表 1）。 25Q2 农林牧渔、电子、非银金融、有色金属等行业 ROE 数据处于同比上升中。 半年报显示，申万一级行业 ROE(TTM)数据中，食品饮料行业 20.28%；家用电器行 业 15.96%是该指标最高的行业。同时，农林牧渔、有色金属等行业连续两个季度 ROE 数据同比上行；而房地产、煤炭、石油石化等行业 ROE 数据下滑明显（图表 3）。 申万二级行业中，白酒、养殖业、白色家电 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the severe impact of the "cyclical bear" on the Chinese lithium battery capital market, with a significant decline in market capitalization of listed lithium companies [1] - As of the peak in December 2021, the total market capitalization of Chinese lithium battery listed companies has decreased by approximately 2.91 trillion yuan, a decline of 53.31%, which far exceeds the 5.99% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [1] - The net fundraising scale of Chinese lithium listed companies is projected to decline by 94.38% over three years, indicating a challenging financing environment for both listed and smaller companies [1] Group 2 - Despite the challenges, there are still 29 lithium listed companies that achieved over 10% revenue growth in 2024, with 16 of them remaining profitable [1] - The article emphasizes that the capital market is significantly undervaluing certain quality enterprises within the lithium battery industry, particularly in the power and energy storage battery sectors [1] - The 24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) has launched a "Top 24 Most Investable Chinese Lithium Battery Companies" ranking to provide a comprehensive evaluation of these companies based on multiple dimensions such as profitability, growth, capital structure, and shareholder returns [2] Group 3 - The ranking methodology includes various indicators with specific weights, focusing on valuation and fundamental performance, such as PB, PS, and dividend yield [4][5][6] - The article outlines that a high ROE (Return on Equity) is crucial for assessing a company's operational performance, with a benchmark of 15% considered ideal [13] - The analysis indicates that companies with a debt ratio exceeding 70% face increased financial risk, particularly in economic downturns [15] Group 4 - The article presents a list of the top 24 most investable lithium battery companies, with "天华新能" leading the ranking with a score of 74.94, followed by "华宝新能" and "雅化集团" [8][9] - The ranking is based on a comprehensive scoring system that evaluates companies on various financial metrics, including growth rates and shareholder returns [9][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of low PB (Price-to-Book) strategies, which have historically outperformed high PB strategies in terms of investment returns [17][18]

存贷增速均边际上升，资负结构更加均衡 光大银行2025Q1 末贷款本金总额4.11 万亿元，较年初增长5.24%，增速高于2024年四个季度，贷款放 量有所加快。吸收存款方面，2025Q1 末存款余额为4.27 万亿元，同比增加3.49%，逆转了2024Q2-Q4 连续三个季度的同比负增长，资负结构更加均衡，更好匹配贷款的增长。高息存款收紧后，2024 年光 大银行存款成本率同比下降14BP 至2.18%，部分对冲了资产端收益率下降的影响，预计随着存款增长 加快，负债压力减轻，净息差降幅或继续收窄。 不良率环比持平，高分红+低估值属性较强 营收结构改善，利润增速保持平稳 光大银行2025 年一季度实现营收330.86 亿元（YoY-4.06%），营收降幅边际收窄；归母净利润124.64 亿 元（YoY+0.31%），盈利增速相对平稳。收入结构更加均衡，2025Q1 单季实现净利息收入225.38 亿元 （YoY-6.84%），虽同比下降但降幅较2024 年全年有所收窄；2025Q1 单季实现非息收入105.48 亿元 （YoY+2.46%），主要中收和投资净收益均同比正增长贡献。考虑到实体需求有待恢复、银行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].