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全球价值链再全球化重塑
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世界贸易组织报告指出:全球价值链经历再全球化重塑
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-25 02:19
报告指出,全球价值链正在被重新"布线",通过区域化、数字化、绿色化和新型治理工具,继续在动荡 环境中支撑全球经济增长,同时为发展中经济体创造新的升级路径。拉美和非洲地区被视为全球供应链 重构中的潜在新节点,不再只是初级产品出口者,而是有机会进入制造、加工和服务环节。此外,数字 技术发展也拉低了参与全球价值链的准入门槛,数字贸易、可数字化交付服务和平台型企业,使中小企 业更容易深度嵌入跨国价值链。数字化技术在提升效率的同时,也成为提升包容性的关键工具。 (责任编辑:朱赫) 报告指出,"去全球化"并未发生,而是"再全球化"正在形成。最新数据显示,全球价值链贸易仍占全球 贸易的约46%,虽低于2022年48%的峰值水平,但依然处于高位。报告还预计,未来贸易总量不会系统 性下降,但贸易结构、路线和规则将持续改变。总体上看,全球贸易将更多表现为重构式增长,而非高 速扩张,贸易增长更依赖结构调整、技术升级和区域合作深化。区域分布上,区域内贸易比重将上升, 北美、欧盟、东亚等地区的区域内增加值贸易明显增强,但仍保持跨区域连接,呈现出"区域枢纽+跨 区域连接"的新结构;贸易内容上,服务和数字贸易的重要性将显著上升,数字化正在 ...
全球价值链经历再全球化重塑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 22:46
Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report indicates a transformation in global value chains towards "re-globalization," driven by technological advancements, green transitions, and geopolitical changes [1][2] Group 1: Trade Structure and Dynamics - Global value chain trade remains significant, accounting for approximately 46% of global trade, despite a decrease from the 48% peak in 2022 [2] - Future trade growth is expected to be characterized by structural adjustments, technological upgrades, and deepened regional cooperation rather than rapid expansion [2] - The importance of services and digital trade is rising, with digitalization reshaping value creation and increasing the share of digitally deliverable services in global value chains [2] Group 2: Policy and Governance Influences - Trade is increasingly influenced by policy rather than solely cost factors, with industrial policies, green regulations, and security reviews significantly affecting trade flows [2] - The report highlights over 180 "targeted trade agreements" focusing on digital trade, critical minerals, and green sectors, indicating a shift from comprehensive agreements to issue-oriented cooperation [2] Group 3: Environmental and Technological Shifts - Carbon emissions responsibilities are now integrated into value chain decisions, with green policies directly impacting corporate site selection and trade structures [3] - The green industry is undergoing restructuring, with a focus on electric vehicles and critical minerals, leading to a reorganization towards "green, circular, and traceable" value chains [3] - Digital technology is lowering barriers for participation in global value chains, enabling small and medium enterprises to engage more deeply in cross-border value chains [3]