美国政府直接下场投资企业的行为，正在华尔街催生一种新的高风险投资游戏。随着一连串政府注资引 爆目标公司股价，投资者正争相猜测并押注下一个可能获得垂青的公司，以期在政府行动前布局，攫取 惊人回报。 这场高风险的押注游戏近期愈演愈烈。锂矿公司Critical Metals Corp．的股价周一因传闻其正与美国政 府洽谈潜在入股而一度飙升，USA Rare Earth Inc．的股价也在上周五因类似传言而大涨。周一晚间， 白宫证实将收购Trilogy Metals Inc．公司10%的股份，消息一出，这家市值约3.43亿美元的公司股价应 声翻倍。 这些最新的市场动态，源于一个已形成的模式。此前，特朗普政府对MP Materials Corp．、英特尔公司 （Intel Corp．）和Lithium Americas Corp．等公司的投资，均导致这些公司的股价录得两位数甚至三位 数的惊人涨幅。这一连串成功的"点金术"，极大地刺激了市场的投机热情。 特朗普政府表示，这些资本注入对于确保美国在现代武器、人工智能产品和基础设施等关键领域拥有国 内生产商至关重要。分析人士指出，随着政府可能动用数十亿乃至数千亿美元的资金，任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imposition of tariffs on various products, highlighting the specific rates and categories affected, as well as ongoing investigations into additional tariffs on other goods scheduled for 2025 [1] Tariffs Already Imposed - Tariffs of 25% have been imposed on automobiles and parts, covering passenger cars, SUVs, light trucks, and numerous components [1] - Tariffs of 50% have been applied to copper and its derivatives, although raw materials like copper ore, concentrates, and electrolytic copper are exempt [1] - A 50% tariff has also been levied on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives, with the scope of these tariffs expanding to include components for wind turbines, furniture, and compressors [1] Ongoing Investigations - Investigations into medium and heavy trucks and their parts will commence in April 2025, with details yet to be disclosed [1] - A similar investigation for commercial aircraft and engines and their parts will start in May 2025, with no details provided [1] - Drones, drone systems, and their components will be investigated starting in July 2025, with specifics not yet available [1] - An investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives, crucial for semiconductors and solar panels, will also begin in July 2025 [1] - Medical devices and supplies, including masks, syringes, catheters, pacemakers, and ventilators, will be investigated starting in September 2025 [1] - Robotics and industrial machinery, including CNC machines, industrial stamping machines, and laser cutting equipment, will be under investigation starting in September 2025 [1] - An investigation into logs, wood products, and derivatives will start in March 2025, covering items like furniture, cabinets, and wooden decorative pieces [1] - Pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients will be investigated starting in April 2025, including finished drugs, active ingredients, and key starting materials [1] - Critical minerals, processed minerals, and derivatives will be investigated starting in April 2025, focusing on processed ores and downstream products using these ores [1] - An investigation into semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment will also begin in April 2025, covering semiconductor substrates, bare wafers, legacy chips, advanced chips, and downstream electronic products containing semiconductors [1]

美国政府对机器人、工业机械和医疗器械的进口展开调查，为唐纳德·特朗普总统实施新的关税打下基 础。根据《联邦公报》上发布的通知，美国商务部正在根据《贸易扩展法》第232条进行调查。调查于9 月2日启动。根据这部法律，美国总统可以针对被认为对国家安全至关重要的商品征收关税，商务部有 270天的时间提出政策建议。特朗普希望通过提高进口成本来鼓励关键行业的国内制造，新宣布的调查 使得更多行业面临可能被征收关税的风险。目前，美国针对药品、半导体、飞机、关键矿产、中重型卡 车和其他产品的进口调查仍在进行之中。特朗普政府已经利用这部法律对汽车、铜、钢和铝征收关税。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by nations [1][7] - The traditional stock-bond portfolio is deemed vulnerable in the face of two types of stagflation risks: erosion of institutional credibility and supply shocks [2][6] Commodity Control Cycle - The cycle consists of four phases: insulation, expansion, concentration, and leverage [3][4] - **Insulation**: Governments implement tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to protect domestic supply chains [3] - **Expansion**: Once domestic supply is secured, surplus production is used for exports, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market share [3] - **Concentration**: High-cost producers exit the market, leading to supply concentration among a few dominant players [3] - **Leverage**: Dominant producers can use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [3][5] Geopolitical Risks - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as seen in historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [5] - Key maritime chokepoints exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [5] Strategic Value of Commodities - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios, particularly in a fragmented and supply-chain-weakening world [6][7] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [6][9] Conclusion - As the world transitions into a "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a diverse range of commodities into investment portfolios is a strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government announced a support plan totaling 45.8 trillion KRW to enhance supply chain resilience, focusing on key industries such as batteries, semiconductors, and critical minerals [1] Financial Support Details - The government will provide a total of 45.8 trillion KRW in low-interest policy financing, which includes 10 trillion KRW from the Supply Chain Stabilization Fund, 13.3 trillion KRW from the Korea Export-Import Bank, 18 trillion KRW from the Korea Industrial Bank, and 4.5 trillion KRW from the Korea Small and Medium Enterprises Bank [1] - Additionally, two public-private investment tools will be launched: a fund of 1.8 trillion KRW focusing on leading companies and a fund of 600 billion KRW aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises in the materials, parts, and equipment sectors [1]

■ 张菁秋 在当前全球地缘政治格局深刻演变的背景下，资源能源安全正成为各国国家战略的重要支柱。尤其是关键矿产作为新能源、半导体、军工等战略性产业的 基础支撑，其供应链安全关系到一个国家的科技发展、工业体系乃至整体经济安全。近年来，美国通过"关键矿产清单"，强化关键资源的战略管控;欧 盟、澳大利亚等经济体也纷纷制定关键原材料战略，以降低对外依赖。美国总统特朗普于2025年3月签署旨在加强美国关键矿产生产的行政令，4月启动关 键矿物进口"232调查"，对于资源的争夺已演化为以供应链安全为核心的全方位战略博弈。在此背景下，日本长期以来在资源获取方面所采取的"资源外 交"战略再次引发关注。 日本作为关键矿产消费大国，其资源高度依赖进口，本土关键矿产资源供给能力偏弱。为确保国家战略性产业的核心资源供给，日本政府长期将保障关键 矿物及工业原材料的稳定获取置于政策制定的优先位置，早在20世纪就已通过设立专门机构、推动对外合作、拓展海外资源布局，逐步形成了一套具有特 色的资源外交体系，其经验对当前我国应对关键矿产资源国际竞争、提升资源供应链韧性具有重要借鉴意义。 一、日本资源外交演变历史及特点 自20世纪60年代以来，日本资 ...

（原标题：今年上半年巴西关键矿产营收同比增长41.6%） 巴西《经济价值报》8月6日报道，据巴西矿业协会统计，今年上半年，巴矿产出口额为201亿美 元，铁矿石占比达63%。巴矿产贸易顺差总额为160亿美元，相当于巴贸易顺差总额的53%。中国是巴 矿产的最大出口目的地，占比达68%。巴矿业营收为1392亿雷亚尔，同比增长7.5%，铁矿石占比达 53%。巴关键矿产出口额为36.4亿美元，同比增长5.2%；营收为216亿雷亚尔，同比增长41.6%。该协会 主席荣曼表示，任何矿产协议都取决于政府间谈判。如果要为某个国家建立特定矿产资源独家使用权制 度，这将是一项史无前例的新举措。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has officially imposed a 40% tariff on Brazil, prompting Brazilian President Lula to shift his stance on the development of key minerals and rare earths, emphasizing national sovereignty and the importance of value-added processing within Brazil [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes - President Lula stated that key minerals should be treated as matters of national sovereignty, indicating a desire to prevent a repeat of past practices where Brazil exported raw materials and imported high-value products [1]. - Lula emphasized the need for a national policy to ensure that the exploration of these resources benefits the Brazilian people, contrasting with previous approaches that allowed foreign extraction of rare earths [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Engagement - Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad expressed the possibility of reaching a cooperation agreement with the U.S. regarding rare earths and key minerals, signaling a willingness to negotiate [1]. - Haddad announced a video call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on August 13 to discuss tariff implementation, potential technical adjustments, and future dialogue schedules [1].

这与卢拉前一日的表态形成明显对比。5日，卢拉在出席一场政府会议时强调，政府不会像过去一样允 许外国开采稀土矿。"我们正在制定一项国家政策，确保这些资源的勘探能够造福巴西人民。"卢拉说 道。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当地时间8月6日，美国对巴西加征的40%关税正式生效。当天，巴西总统卢拉改变对关键矿产和稀土的 开发立场，称其应被视为国家主权事务，在保障主权前提下，不妨碍巴西"与世界其他国家进行谈判"。 "我们必须谨慎对待关键矿产，不能允许像上个世纪那样，出口矿产原料、进口高附加值产品的状况重 演。我们希望附加值留在巴西。"卢拉6日在接受路透社采访时说，巴西不打算封闭自身，而是希望这些 资源在本国实现转化，"在巴西的主导下成为人类财富的源泉"。 ...

吉总理卡瑟马利耶夫曾表示，关键矿产是技术和经济发展的关键因素。在全球向可再生能源、数字 化转型和高科技发展的时代，吉应该在价值链中占据应有的位置。 据吉尔吉斯斯坦卡巴尔国家通讯社7月16日报道，吉自然资源、生态和技术监督部部长马什耶夫在 接受采访时表示，吉加紧制定本国关键矿产战略，目前文件正处于审批阶段，将涵盖22种矿产，主要涉 及全球储量有限的稀土和多金属矿。 （原标题：吉正在制定关键矿产开发战略） ...