报告指出，全球价值链正在被重新"布线"，通过区域化、数字化、绿色化和新型治理工具，继续在动荡 环境中支撑全球经济增长，同时为发展中经济体创造新的升级路径。拉美和非洲地区被视为全球供应链 重构中的潜在新节点，不再只是初级产品出口者，而是有机会进入制造、加工和服务环节。此外，数字 技术发展也拉低了参与全球价值链的准入门槛，数字贸易、可数字化交付服务和平台型企业，使中小企 业更容易深度嵌入跨国价值链。数字化技术在提升效率的同时，也成为提升包容性的关键工具。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 报告指出，"去全球化"并未发生，而是"再全球化"正在形成。最新数据显示，全球价值链贸易仍占全球 贸易的约46%，虽低于2022年48%的峰值水平，但依然处于高位。报告还预计，未来贸易总量不会系统 性下降，但贸易结构、路线和规则将持续改变。总体上看，全球贸易将更多表现为重构式增长，而非高 速扩张，贸易增长更依赖结构调整、技术升级和区域合作深化。区域分布上，区域内贸易比重将上升， 北美、欧盟、东亚等地区的区域内增加值贸易明显增强，但仍保持跨区域连接，呈现出"区域枢纽+跨 区域连接"的新结构；贸易内容上，服务和数字贸易的重要性将显著上升，数字化正在 ...

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report indicates a transformation in global value chains towards "re-globalization," driven by technological advancements, green transitions, and geopolitical changes [1][2] Group 1: Trade Structure and Dynamics - Global value chain trade remains significant, accounting for approximately 46% of global trade, despite a decrease from the 48% peak in 2022 [2] - Future trade growth is expected to be characterized by structural adjustments, technological upgrades, and deepened regional cooperation rather than rapid expansion [2] - The importance of services and digital trade is rising, with digitalization reshaping value creation and increasing the share of digitally deliverable services in global value chains [2] Group 2: Policy and Governance Influences - Trade is increasingly influenced by policy rather than solely cost factors, with industrial policies, green regulations, and security reviews significantly affecting trade flows [2] - The report highlights over 180 "targeted trade agreements" focusing on digital trade, critical minerals, and green sectors, indicating a shift from comprehensive agreements to issue-oriented cooperation [2] Group 3: Environmental and Technological Shifts - Carbon emissions responsibilities are now integrated into value chain decisions, with green policies directly impacting corporate site selection and trade structures [3] - The green industry is undergoing restructuring, with a focus on electric vehicles and critical minerals, leading to a reorganization towards "green, circular, and traceable" value chains [3] - Digital technology is lowering barriers for participation in global value chains, enabling small and medium enterprises to engage more deeply in cross-border value chains [3]

世界贸易组织日前发布报告《全球价值链发展报告2025》指出，当前全球价值链正在经历"再全球化"重 塑，尤其是在技术进步、绿色转型和地缘政治变化等因素的推动下，全球价值链正从"效率优先"向韧 性、可持续性与包容性转型，区域化、近岸外包、供应链多元化和数字化等特点明显加强。 （文章来源：经济日报） 报告指出，"去全球化"并未发生，而是"再全球化"正在形成。最新数据显示，全球价值链贸易仍占全球 贸易的约46%，虽低于2022年48%的峰值水平，但依然处于高位。报告还预计，未来贸易总量不会系统 性下降，但贸易结构、路线和规则将持续改变。总体上看，全球贸易将更多表现为重构式增长，而非高 速扩张，贸易增长更依赖结构调整、技术升级和区域合作深化。区域分布上，区域内贸易比重将上升， 北美、欧盟、东亚等地区的区域内增加值贸易明显增强，但仍保持跨区域连接，呈现出"区域枢纽+跨 区域连接"的新结构；贸易内容上，服务和数字贸易的重要性将显著上升，数字化正在重塑价值创造方 式，服务在全球价值链中的比重持续提高，尤其是可数字交付服务将愈加发挥价值链黏合剂的作用；影 响因素上，政策含量将进一步提高，贸易越来越受政策而非成本单一驱动，产业政 ...

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 12月8日，华盛顿的会议室里挺热闹，美澳第40届"2+2"磋商会议开得正欢。 两边一拍即合，要搞个"可靠、多元"的矿产供应链。 澳大利亚这下可算找着了新定位。 要知道，这国家在全球关键矿产供应链里的分量最近看涨。 锆矿产量全球第一，中国近四成的锆都得从它那儿进口。 稀土储量也不小，现在想借着美澳合作，把矿产从普通商品变成"战略筹码"。 美方来的是国务卿鲁比奥和国防部长赫格塞斯，澳方则是副总理兼国防部长马尔斯、外交部长黄英贤。 这场会选在美日"2+2"还没开的时候办，明眼人都看得出，有事要聊。 聊的啥呢？不是航母也不是军演，而是石头关键矿产。 鲁比奥在会上扯着嗓子说，这玩意儿对国防和科技产业太重要了，赫格塞斯也跟着帮腔，说军事运作离 了它不行。 以前卖矿就是卖资源，赚的是辛苦钱。 现在跟着美国混，把矿产和战略安全绑在一起，身价立马不一样。 美澳握手背后，矿产成了新"战略货币" 其实这事儿早有铺垫。 今年10月，特朗普和阿尔巴尼斯就签了个关键矿产框架协议。 黄英贤最近在公开场合说得很明白，这合作跟AUKUS一样，都是美澳战略协作的核心。 说白了，就是想把矿产当"硬通货"，在大国博弈里 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Recent research by McKinsey Global Institute indicates a structural reshaping of global capital flows, with China transitioning from a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) to a key global investor, particularly in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa, with capital deployment growth exceeding two-thirds [3] - Since 2022, China's average annual greenfield investment has decreased by 65% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while outward investment in future-oriented industries and resources has increased by 54% [3][8] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Over the past decade, China's automotive industry has shifted from "market for technology" to "technology going global," with Chinese brands capturing approximately 30% of the domestic market share from multinational joint ventures [9] - By 2030, it is predicted that 3-5 Chinese companies will be among the top ten global automakers, with Chinese brands expected to hold a 10%-20% market share in key overseas markets [9] - In 2025, two Chinese automakers are projected to enter the global top ten in sales, with 2023 expected to see China surpass Japan and Germany as the world's largest automobile exporter [9][15] Group 3: Life Sciences Industry - China's innovative drug development has seen significant growth, with about one-third of global innovative drug pipelines originating from China, including a substantial portion in cutting-edge therapies [18] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from developing globally competitive innovative products to establishing a global presence, with 23 drugs receiving breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA and 11 approved for market entry in the U.S. [24] - To become truly global enterprises, Chinese pharmaceutical companies must upgrade their strategies across three dimensions: talent globalization, decision-making agility, and source innovation [25] Group 4: Industrial Sector - China has evolved from being a "world factory" to an essential strategic market and innovation hub for global advanced industrial enterprises, with leading companies leveraging digitalization, AI, and IoT technologies [27] - The penetration rate of AI in lighthouse factories has increased from approximately 20% to over 80% in the past five years, with generative AI further enhancing technological applications [27] Group 5: Consumer Market - The middle class in China is expected to grow significantly, with high-income households projected to reach 259 million by 2030, accounting for 62% of urban families [34] - Despite challenges, consumer resilience is evident, with retail sales in China growing by 4.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, driven by strong sales in home appliances and electric vehicles [34][37] - E-commerce platforms are evolving from a fresh-food-centric model to a comprehensive category approach, activating new consumption scenarios and driving industry growth [37] Group 6: Strategic Considerations for Long-term Success - To become a "century-old enterprise," companies must balance operational flexibility with long-term strategic foresight, fostering deep trust and loyalty among stakeholders [41] - Companies need to address succession planning challenges, particularly in China, where reliance on charismatic founders complicates leadership transitions [41] - Businesses must make critical strategic choices to navigate the dual challenges of "breaking through" and "restructuring" in the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of ecological integration and global perspectives for sustainable development [42]

Core Insights - McKinsey's recent media day in Shanghai focused on strategies for companies to succeed in the future Chinese market and navigate global expansion [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Global capital flows are undergoing structural changes, with China transitioning from a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) to a key global investor [2] - Chinese companies are increasing capital deployment in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa by over two-thirds [2] - Since 2022, China's annual greenfield investment has decreased by 65% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while outbound investment in future industries and resources has grown by 54% [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - Chinese automotive companies have shifted from "market for technology" to "technology for the world," gaining approximately 30% market share from multinational joint ventures in the domestic market [5] - By 2030, it is expected that 3 to 5 Chinese companies will be among the top ten global automakers, with Chinese brands projected to capture 10% to 20% of core overseas markets [6] - In 2025, two Chinese automakers are anticipated to enter the global top ten in sales, with 2023 expected to see record-high annual exports, surpassing Japan and Germany [6] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Evolution - China's innovative drug development has seen significant growth, with about one-third of global innovative drug pipelines originating from China [11] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies need to evolve from developing globally competitive products to establishing a global presence [11] - Three strategic upgrades are necessary for Chinese pharmaceutical firms: transitioning from specialized talent to global and diverse talent, from efficient decision-making to a balance of agility and stability, and from following innovation to leading innovation [12] Group 4: Manufacturing Sector Opportunities - China has evolved from a "world factory" to a strategic market and innovation hub for global advanced industrial enterprises [15] - Leading Chinese manufacturers are integrating digitalization, AI, and IoT technologies to maintain competitive advantages [15] - For multinational companies, deep engagement in China's vibrant industrial ecosystem is essential for enhancing global competitiveness [15] Group 5: Consumer Market Dynamics - The middle class in China is expected to grow, with high-income households projected to reach 259 million by 2030, accounting for 62% of urban families [16] - Despite declining consumer confidence, retail sales in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, with significant increases in home appliance and electric vehicle sales [16] - E-commerce platforms are evolving from a fresh food-centric model to a comprehensive category approach, driving growth through new consumption scenarios [19]

Core Insights - The Biden administration is under pressure to address a cost-of-living crisis affecting millions of Americans, with potential adjustments to grocery tariffs being considered to lower prices [1] - The National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Hassett indicated that discussions are ongoing regarding food tariff adjustments, suggesting more changes may follow [1] - Former President Trump plans to make a significant announcement aimed at stabilizing food prices, including items like coffee and bananas [1] Group 1 - The inflation rate is currently at 3%, which Hassett believes is moving in the right direction, but acknowledges that grocery prices have continued to rise during Trump's presidency [2] - Typical monthly grocery spending for a family increased from approximately $400 when Trump left office to about $512 currently, indicating a significant rise in food costs [2] - Trump's imposition of large tariffs on most trade partners raised the average tariff level in the U.S. to its highest point since World War II [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has granted exemptions from retaliatory tariffs for certain industries like chips, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals, while investigations are ongoing that may lead to future tariffs [2] - Many countries are seeking limited agreements with the U.S. to reduce some of the tariffs imposed by Trump, but the government maintains a baseline tariff of at least 10% on nearly all trade partners [2]

Core Points - The United States and Thailand have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to enhance cooperation in critical mineral supply chains, aimed at boosting investment and developing Thailand's domestic mineral processing and value-added industries [1] - The MOU emphasizes that it is non-binding and does not replace or affect existing agreements between the two countries, nor does it impact their sovereignty over natural resources [1] - The collaboration will allow for the sharing of knowledge and technical expertise, helping Thailand analyze its critical mineral resource base and improve competitiveness in the sector [1] Group 1 - The MOU aims to establish a stable, flexible, and responsible critical mineral supply chain [1] - This agreement is a continuation of the partnership between the U.S. and Thailand, further solidifying their close ties in trade, investment, and business [1] - Through this cooperation, both parties will share project information related to critical minerals and explore new business opportunities [1]

Trade & Agriculture - China to begin large-scale purchases of soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products from the US [1] - This decision is expected to greatly benefit US farmers [1] Energy - China agreed to start purchasing US energy, with a potential large-scale deal involving oil and natural gas from Alaska [1] - Discussions are underway regarding a potential energy agreement between the US and China [1] Critical Minerals & Fentanyl - China agreed to continue openly and freely supplying the US with rare earths, critical minerals, and magnets [1] - China committed to working closely with the US to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US [1] Economic Impact - Agreements reached are expected to bring prosperity and security to millions of Americans [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent agreements signed by the United States with multiple countries, including Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, focusing on securing the supply of critical minerals essential for advanced technologies and industries. The agreements emphasize cooperation in investment, technology transfer, and supply chain diversification, although they are largely non-binding and politically oriented [3][4][6]. Group 1: Agreements and Frameworks - The U.S. and Japan signed a framework agreement to enhance cooperation in securing critical minerals, including financial support mechanisms and trade measures [3][4]. - Similar agreements were made between the U.S. and Australia, as well as memorandums with Malaysia and Thailand during President Trump's visit to Asia [4]. - The U.S. and Japan plan to hold a ministerial meeting within 180 days to promote investment in the mining sector [5]. Group 2: Investment and Technology Transfer - The U.S. and Japan committed to investing in mineral recycling and ensuring the management of critical minerals through technological cooperation [6]. - The agreements with Malaysia and Thailand emphasize trade and investment in critical mineral supply chains, with a focus on technology transfer and innovation [6][7]. - The U.S. expects to prioritize investments in critical mineral assets that can be sold in Malaysia and Thailand, promoting domestic processing industries [6]. Group 3: Non-Binding Nature and Stability - The agreements are non-binding and may not have substantial impacts on mining policies unless actual investments and technological collaborations materialize [4][7]. - The stability of these non-binding frameworks depends on whether the involved countries can genuinely benefit from U.S. investments and technology transfers [7]. - The U.S.-Japan framework is viewed as potentially more stable due to mutual needs for critical minerals, compared to the agreements with Malaysia and Thailand [7].