Group 1 - The 47th ASEAN Summit and related meetings were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, focusing on the formal signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade protocol, amidst the backdrop of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariffs" proposal [1][4] - ASEAN countries are significantly impacted by "reciprocal tariffs," yet they demonstrate unprecedented strategic autonomy and confidence, aiming to shape regional resilience and inclusive development while maintaining a multilateral economic order [1][2] Group 2 - The world is experiencing a significant transformation in the economic landscape, characterized by the end of traditional globalization, the rise of regionalization, and the emergence of new economic sectors influenced by technological revolutions [2][3] - ASEAN countries are positioned as crucial hubs in global economic cooperation, benefiting from their unique geographical advantages, which have attracted international capital and positioned nations like Vietnam and Malaysia as emerging production and trade centers [3][4] - ASEAN is enhancing its regional resilience and inclusivity through initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade protocol, addressing external challenges such as "reciprocal tariffs" and "de-globalization" [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift from globalization to "de-globalization," driven by geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic, leading to a focus on regionalization and security resilience [1][3] Group 1: Disruption of Old Models - The core driver of de-globalization is the pursuit of "security resilience" by businesses and governments, which sacrifices some efficiency and cost [3] - Companies that previously relied on low-cost, long supply chains for high profits are facing challenges, while those offering localized, high-security, and resilient solutions are poised for growth [4] Group 2: New Investment Opportunities - Wealth is being re-consolidated into economies with high regional collaboration capabilities [4] - Opportunities include: - **Reshoring and Upgrading of Domestic Manufacturing**: Companies utilizing automation, AI, and green energy for local or regional re-manufacturing will benefit, such as industrial automation equipment providers and smart logistics service companies [4][5] - **Beneficiaries of Regional Trade Agreements**: Companies in countries benefiting from trade agreements (e.g., RCEP, USMCA) will gain from tariff advantages and supply chain integration, with emerging economies like Southeast Asia and Mexico becoming new manufacturing hubs [5] - **Accumulation of Key Resources and Self-Sufficiency**: The rise in resource sovereignty awareness will increase the value of energy, critical minerals, and high-tech research, making investments in companies ensuring stable energy supply or possessing self-sufficient technologies attractive [7] Group 3: Strategies for Adaptation - Companies must regularly review their portfolio logic, questioning the security of their supply chains and the risks of regional trade barriers [7] - Diversifying country allocations is essential to mitigate geopolitical and trade risks, suggesting that core assets should be spread across different regional index funds [7]

Core Insights - Asian economies demonstrate resilience amid global economic uncertainty, with several countries showing strong performance due to the "pre-order" effect from U.S. tariff policies, which has bolstered exports [1][3] - Optimism for growth in certain Asian economies over the next few quarters is supported by government policies and deeper regional cooperation that can mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. protectionism [1][3] - Technological advancement and innovation are crucial for enhancing productivity in China, which has a significant manufacturing base contributing to long-term economic growth [1][2] Economic Performance - Many Asian economies, including India and Southeast Asian nations, are expected to maintain healthy growth momentum despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [3] - The "pre-order" phenomenon, where Western consumers purchase more Asian goods to avoid higher future tariffs, has supported many Asian manufacturers and exporters [3] - Future demand may experience slight deceleration as the impact of pre-orders wanes, but proactive government measures are anticipated to cushion potential slowdowns [3] Regional Cooperation - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements are enhancing regional economic cooperation, which is seen as a core driver for sustained growth in the Asia-Pacific region [5] - Studies suggest that RCEP members could gain approximately 2% of GDP in additional benefits if trade commitments are upheld, potentially offsetting some impacts of rising U.S. tariffs [5] Technological Innovation - The focus on technological innovation is expected to continue, with governments likely to allocate more resources to enhance productivity and long-term economic growth [2][7] - Countries like China and South Korea are positioned to benefit from ongoing technological advancements, providing a solid foundation for future growth [7] Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to positively influence capital flows into emerging Asian markets, as it narrows the interest rate differential with the U.S. [6] - The anticipated weakening of the U.S. dollar may further support investor sentiment in the region, contributing to stock market gains [6]

来源：21世纪经济报道 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，亚洲经济仍显韧性。面对挑战，亚洲经济体保持稳健的动力是什 么？ 近日，牛津经济研究院亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙在接受南方财经记者专访时指出，今年亚洲多国经济表 现亮眼，部分得益于美国关税政策引发的"提前下单"效应，支撑了出口的表现。 她同时强调，"对未来几个季度部分亚洲经济体的增长势头保持相当乐观"，原因在于更多积极因素正陆 续显现：一方面，各国政府的支持性政策将陆续落地；另一方面，已有研究表明，亚太区域合作的深化 可部分对冲美国保护主义政策的负面冲击，从而缓解全球波动带来的压力。 谈及中国，卢姿蕙认为，提升生产率的关键在于科技进步与创新。凭借人工智能等前沿技术的持续突 破，中国经济有望保持长期增长动能。 南方财经：近年来，中国正在加快推动科技创新，推动高质量发展。如何评价科技创新对中国长期增长 的作用？ 卢姿蕙：科技创新非常重要。在中国，要提升生产率，核心途径可以是依靠科技进步和创新。中国本身 拥有庞大的工业基础，制造业大约占国内生产总值的四分之一。如果能够推动制造业升级，提升工业生 产水平，将对中国的长期增长产生深远而积极的影响。 再比如人工智能，以及其 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of global supply chains from a focus on efficiency and cost to resilience, efficiency optimization, and sustainable development due to geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and climate crises [3][31]. Group 1: Key Issues in Global Supply Chains - Four core issues are identified in the current global supply chain landscape: structural issues, risk control issues, efficiency issues, and sustainability issues [4][5]. - Structural issues are driven by geopolitical tensions leading to a shift from globalization to regionalization, increasing trade costs and necessitating fundamental adjustments in supply chain layouts [5][10]. - Risk control issues highlight the normalization of vulnerabilities and disruptions, with a significant increase in supply chain interruption events, leading to substantial revenue losses for companies [6][10]. - Efficiency issues arise from rising operational costs and declining collaboration efficiency within supply chains, exacerbated by regionalization and fragmentation [7][10]. - Sustainability issues are characterized by increased pressure for green transformation and compliance costs, as regulations evolve into market entry barriers [8][10]. Group 2: Trends and Challenges - The article outlines ten trends and challenges that are reshaping supply chain dynamics and competitive rules globally [9][10]. - Trend 1 emphasizes the shift towards regionalization and shorter supply chains, with global trade growth entering a plateau phase [10][13]. - Trend 2 discusses the restructuring of value chains within economic regions, with different countries assuming new roles in the value chain [16][18]. - Trend 3 highlights the imbalance in labor and capacity layouts, leading to labor shortages and mismatched production capabilities in emerging markets [18][19]. - Trend 4 focuses on the structural upgrade of Chinese enterprises going abroad, transitioning from traditional exports to more complex models [19][21]. - Trend 5 addresses the increasing uncertainty in global economic policies, which has become a new norm for supply chains [21][23]. - Trend 6 outlines the compounded risks facing global supply chains, including trade policy impacts and labor shortages, leading to systemic disruptions [23][25]. - Trend 7 discusses the dual-edged effects of digitalization and automation technologies on supply chains, enhancing efficiency while introducing new risks [25][26]. - Trend 8 presents the rise of flexible supply chains to adapt to rapid market changes and mitigate risks [26][27]. - Trend 9 highlights the pressures of green transformation and compliance costs as ESG standards become stringent market requirements [27][28]. - Trend 10 points out the differentiation and complexity of ESG standards across regions, creating compliance barriers for businesses [28][30]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the global supply chain is undergoing a critical transformation, necessitating a strategic upgrade for companies to navigate the intertwined challenges and trends effectively [31][32].

经济观察网 中国物流与采购联合会今天（15日）在2025年采购与供应管理大会上发布《全球供应链发 展趋势蓝皮书（2025）》。根据蓝皮书，目前全球供应链正加快向中国等新兴市场转移，并呈现出区域 化、数智化与绿色化等特征。中国正通过"双循环"、"新质生产力"等战略积极应对变局，为全球供应链 优化提供了"中国方案"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful acquisition of the first-level general contracting qualification for construction engineering by China Communications First Public Bureau Shenzhen Company marks a significant milestone in its strategic development and enhances its competitive edge in the urban construction market [1][3]. Group 1: Qualification Upgrade - The Shenzhen company has obtained first-level qualifications in both housing construction and municipal engineering, which is a crucial step in implementing its "Strengthening Urban Development" strategy and advancing its "dual headquarters" initiative [1][3]. - The upgrade of the construction engineering general contracting qualification is seen as a key lever for expanding urban market space, enhancing core competitiveness in housing construction, and optimizing product structure [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implementation - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the Shenzhen company has actively responded to strategic directives from higher authorities, focusing on the development direction of "urbanization + specialization + regionalization" [3]. - A special working group was established to oversee the qualification upgrade process, with top leadership personally involved in coordination and deployment to ensure smooth progress [3]. Group 3: Future Development - The successful upgrade to first-level qualification is viewed as a strong engine for future development, allowing the Shenzhen company to deepen its engagement in the urban market and continuously improve project management and construction capabilities [3]. - The company aims to leverage this new qualification as a starting point to contribute significantly to regional development strategies and the construction of high-quality projects [3].

Economic Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, leading to increased geopolitical fragmentation since 1975[2] - Geopolitical fragmentation index shows that a one standard deviation negative shock can reduce global GDP by approximately -0.4%, peaking within one to two years[5] - Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more severely impacted by external shocks compared to developed regions[5] Sectoral and Regional Variations - Industries closely tied to global markets, such as manufacturing and finance, face the most significant disruptions due to geopolitical risks[5] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU region, affecting global economic dynamics[5] - In contrast, sectors like agriculture and real estate, which are more localized, experience relatively minor impacts[5] Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Higher exposure to external political risks correlates with increased innovation activities, such as patent filings and R&D spending[8] - Private sector initiatives drive innovation in response to geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the importance of market incentives[8] - Medium-innovation firms, which are sensitive to external risks, tend to increase R&D efforts more than both high-tech giants and low-innovation firms[8] Long-term Implications for Economic Growth - Strengthening domestic innovation capabilities can help mitigate risks associated with global supply chains and enhance resilience[8] - Countries that can achieve technological advancements and industry upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition[8]