宏观经济深度研究 地缘的围墙 创新的阶梯 当前，随着全球地缘政治形势的复杂化，全球经济一体化的进程遭遇了明显的 滞后。回顾近几十年来的地缘政治事件，可以发现 2007-2008 年的金融危机是自 1975 年以来全球化走向区域化的一个重要转折点。金融危机暴露了全球金融体 系的深层次问题，推动了各国对全球化可持续性的重新审视。综合来看，地缘 政治因素对全球经济的影响主要体现在三个方面：一是即时性冲击。测算显示 地缘政治碎片化指数一个标准差的负向冲击对全球 GDP 的影响约为 -0.4% ，并 在一至两年达到峰值。二是板块溢出效应。其中以美国 - 欧盟板块地缘政治因素 的溢出效应最为显著。新兴经济体如东南亚、拉丁美洲等则通常是外部冲击的 被动接受者，受到的冲击相比之下更为严峻。三是行业发展的结构性分化。与 全球市场紧密相连的行业（如制造业、金融业和批发零售业）受到的冲击最为 严重，相对独立于全球市场的行业（如农业、房地产、公共服务等）所受影响 较小。面对地缘政治风险的抬升，提升创新能力和产业自主性，是应对全球不 确定性、减少地缘风险暴露的重要出路。实证显示，暴露于更高外部政治风险 的产业，其随后的创新活动高于其他 ...

在全球化放缓、区域化加深的背景下，创新与技术发展正成为全球经济体系在不确定性中保持可持续发 展的关键。 当前，随着全球地缘政治形势的复杂化，全球经济一体化的进程遭遇了明显的滞后。回顾近几十年来的 地缘政治事件，可以发现2007~2008年的金融危机是自1975年以来全球化走向区域化的一个重要转折点。 金融危机暴露了全球金融体系的深层次问题，推动了各国对全球化可持续性的重新审视。 综合来看，地缘政治因素对全球经济的影响主要体现在三个方面：一是即时性冲击。测算显示地缘政治 碎片化指数一个标准差的负向冲击对全球GDP的影响约为-0.4%，并在一至两年达到峰值。二是板块溢出 效应。其中以美国—欧盟板块地缘政治因素的溢出效应最为显著。新兴经济体如东南亚、拉丁美洲等则 通常是外部冲击的被动接受者，受到的冲击相比之下更为严峻。三是行业发展的结构性分化。与全球市 场紧密相连的行业（如制造业、金融业和批发零售业）受到的冲击最为严重，相对独立于全球市场的行 业（如农业、房地产、公共服务等）所受影响较小。 面对地缘政治风险的抬升，提升创新能力和产业自主性，是应对全球不确定性、减少地缘风险暴露的重 要出路。实证显示，暴露于更高外部政 ...

一辆广州公交最近被"弹幕"攻陷。 车身被密密麻麻的"热"字覆盖，再加上 "广州很热！热就要多冲凉！冲凉当然用「浅香」「浅香」 啦！"的直白呐喊，这辆行走的温度计瞬间火遍南粤大地。 在过度包装盛行的时代，这份"不加粉饰"的真诚反而价值倍增。消费者最先接收到的并非推销信号，而 是品牌对自己处境的深刻理解。情感共鸣悄然建立后，产品认知自然水到渠成。弹幕公交本身还构成 了"视觉冲击→自发传播→社交裂变"的传播闭环。用户打卡转化为原生内容，使UGC声量远超品牌自身 投入。 浅香敢走这条路线并非心血来潮，而是品牌深耕本土化战略的精准延续。其实从产品设计到传播落地， 浅香早就形成了一套连贯的岭南文化渗透体系。 为了避开洗护红海竞争，浅香在产品研发时就注入岭南地域的基因。独创"茶醒醒"系列融合广东茶香文 化，将香型巧妙嫁接在文化记忆里。今天夏日主打的"微醺瓶"荔枝香氛，更是精准击中广东人对"日啖 荔枝三百颗"的集体情怀。 #广州公交车"热出汗"、#广东到底有多热等话题 霸占广东各地抖音热榜，市民纷纷争相打卡，票圈更 是被刷屏了："这辆弹幕公交演我精神状态！" 而这个搞出那么大阵仗的整活高手，正是广东本土洗护品牌浅香。没有精致 ...

撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 多层结构的 核仁 是 核糖体 生物合成的主要场所，在这里，构成核糖体小亚基 （SSU） 和大亚基 （LSU） 的 rRNA 前体 （ pre-rRNA ） 依次成熟。然而， pre-rRNA 加工与核仁亚结构之间的空间功能关系，以及这种关系如何适应细胞生理需求的变化，一直未被完全理解。 2025 年 7 月 23 日，中国科学院分子细胞科学卓越创新中心 陈玲玲 研究员团队 （博士生 潘宇航 、博士后 单琳 、博士生 张宇瑶 为共同第一作者） 在国际顶 尖学术期刊 Nature 上加速上线了题为： Pre-rRNA spatial distribution and functional organisation of the nucleolus 的研究论文。 该研究系统解析了构成核糖体大小亚基的 rRNA 前体 （ pre-rRNA ） 在核仁中的动态成熟过程，发现了核糖体小亚基 （ SSU ） pre-rRNA 的加工效率直接调 控核仁内层结构的稳定性，提出了 pre-rRNA 加工的区域化模 型 及其在多层结构核仁的功能与进化中具有重要意义 。 真核细胞的细胞核中的 ...

熟悉重阳的朋友们一定知道，阅读，一直是我们非常推崇的成长路径。 现在，我们希望和你一起，把阅读这件事坚持下去。 重阳说 查理·芒格先生有一句广为流传的话："我这一生当中，未曾见过不读书就智慧满满的人。没有。一个都没 有。沃伦（巴菲特）的阅读量之大可能会让你感到吃惊。我和他一样。我的孩子们打趣我说，我就是一 本长着两条腿的书。" 每一期专栏，我们依旧聊书，可能是书评、书单或者书摘。 每一期会有一个交流主题，希望你通过留言与我们互动。 我们精选优质好书，根据留言质量不定量送出。 世界莽莽，时间荒荒，阅读生出思考的力量，愿你感受到自己的思想有厚度且有方向，四通八达，尽情 徜徉。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 【好书】第293期：《周期与财富》 [美]彼得•C.奥本海默（Peter C. Oppenheimer） 著 王德伦 王欢 译 中国人民大学出版社 推荐人 营销编辑段雯昕 2025年6月 互动话题： 结合本书 ，请谈谈你对"财富与周期"的看法。 留言时间：2024年7月16 日 - 2025年 7月23日 （鼓励原创，只要你的内容足 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Notice on the Construction of Zero Carbon Parks" by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration marks a significant shift in China's carbon governance approach, moving from individual enterprise emissions reduction to systematic, regional low-carbon transformation [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The policy document includes one main file and four supporting guidelines, which outline the basic conditions for zero carbon park construction, the application outline for national-level zero carbon parks, a trial indicator system, and carbon emission accounting methods [2]. - The notice establishes construction standards and a management framework for zero carbon parks, with application entities primarily being provincial-level development zones included in the latest "Directory of Approved Development Zones" [2]. - A tiered assessment system is created based on the annual comprehensive energy consumption scale of the parks, categorizing core indicators of unit energy consumption carbon emissions into two tiers [2]. Group 2: Emission Standards - The trial indicator system specifies carbon emission intensity requirements: parks with annual energy consumption of 200,000 to 1,000,000 tons of standard coal must have unit energy consumption carbon emissions ≤0.2 tons/ton of standard coal, while those with consumption ≥1,000,000 tons must meet ≤0.3 tons/ton [2]. - Additional guiding indicators include a clean energy consumption ratio of ≥90%, industrial solid waste comprehensive utilization rate of ≥80%, and waste heat and pressure utilization rate of ≥50% [2]. Group 3: Carbon Accounting - The "Carbon Emission Accounting Method" includes net electricity intake and industrial process emissions in a unified accounting framework, establishing a full lifecycle carbon emission accounting system [3]. - Renewable energy power obtained through green electricity direct supply or green certificate trading is assigned a carbon emission factor of 0, while other electricity is calculated using the national fossil energy power emission factor of 0.8325 kgCO/kWh [3]. - The notice emphasizes that the proportion of electricity supplied directly through green power should not be less than 50% [3]. Group 4: Economic Viability and Financial Support - The shift to park-based management for emissions reduction offers institutional advantages, allowing for the integration of land and policy incentives to encourage enterprise participation [4]. - The construction of zero carbon parks requires economic viability to achieve expected effects, alongside support from policies and financial institutions [4][5]. - The need for green financial support is highlighted, with suggestions for diversified financing models, including the establishment of special funds and the introduction of long-term capital [5]. - Innovative financial products, such as "carbon footprint-linked loans," are being piloted by some commercial banks, linking loan interest rates to the carbon reduction performance of parks [5].

Core Insights - Hape Group has been actively participating in various trade shows across Europe since Q2 2025, enhancing its brand influence and achieving significant results [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Brand Exposure and Product Launches - Hape Group showcased its outdoor product lines at the JDC Gardening Trends Exhibition in France, attracting numerous online customers [1] - Toynamics Spain successfully previewed Hape's 2025 new products at a toy exhibition in Madrid, achieving €1,000 in on-site sales [2] - The "Mormels & Peppers" series, designed to develop early math skills, received high praise at the Bea Spielt exhibition in Switzerland [2] Group 2: Innovative Product Features - The "Dynamic Pixel Piano," which combines educational and technological elements, became a focal point at the Babini Baby Fair in Germany [3] - Hape's "Train Track" series was highlighted at the Milan Toy Fair, generating significant interest and numerous immediate orders [3] Group 3: Localized Operations and Market Collaboration - Toynamics France's pop-up events successfully engaged families and influencers, showcasing Hape's infant and Baby Einstein series [4] - The collaborative approach of localized operations and regional synergy has strengthened Hape Group's relationships with European market clients, laying a solid foundation for global business expansion in 2025 [4]

Group 1: Economic Cycle and Currency Performance - The economic cycle consists of four phases: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, each affecting currency performance differently [1][2][3] - In the recovery phase, commodity currencies like AUD and CAD benefit from increased demand for resources, exemplified by China's infrastructure stimulus leading to an 18% rise in iron ore prices [1] - During the overheating phase, high-interest currencies such as USD and BRL gain from aggressive central bank rate hikes, with Brazil's rate reaching 13.75% and BRL yielding an annualized return of 21% [2] - Stagflation sees safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF perform well due to capital flight to safer assets, with EUR/CHF hitting a ten-year low of 0.94 [3] - In recession, sovereign currencies like USD and SGD strengthen as global deleveraging occurs, with the DXY index rising amid a U.S. tech recession [3] Group 2: Impact of Cycle Transitions on Forex Market - Structural reshaping of interest rate expectations occurs, where USD may depreciate initially during a recession but often rebounds later due to safe-haven demand, with an average increase of 6.2% during recessions from 1970 to 2025 [4] - Cross-market volatility transmission is evident, with significant impacts on JPY and CHF during high VIX periods and a strong correlation between AUD and oil prices during oil price fluctuations [5] - Sovereign currency credit differentiation is highlighted, with strong currencies like USD and CHF attracting capital inflows, while weaker currencies like GBP and TRY face sell-offs when debt-to-GDP exceeds 100% [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies for Economic Cycles - A combination of leading, synchronous, and lagging indicators can be used to capture phases, such as a copper-to-gold ratio below 0.25 indicating a potential recession [7] - Arbitrage strategies can be designed based on mismatched cycles, such as going long on USD/JPY and USD/EUR during U.S. overheating against European and Japanese recession, with a projected annual return of 23% [7] - Tail risk hedging involves buying USD call options and gold futures if recession or stagflation probabilities exceed 65% [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Currency Dynamics - New variables like digital currency interest rates and supply chain regionalization are expected to impact traditional models, with the digital dollar rate reaching 5% attracting capital back [9] - Climate inflation factors, such as El Niño affecting agricultural output, may increase food CPI and pressure the Australian central bank to raise rates, leading to increased AUD volatility [9] Group 5: Trading Principles for Cycle Strategies - Maintain a low position (<15%) during phase ambiguity, such as fluctuating PMI around the threshold [10] - Focus on policy discrepancies rather than economic discrepancies, as seen with the European Central Bank lagging behind the Federal Reserve by an average of four months [10] - Utilize options to create asymmetric risk profiles, such as buying deep out-of-the-money USD call options at low premiums for high potential returns [10] - Market misjudgments regarding cycle phases can significantly influence currency movements, as demonstrated by the EUR's 7% drop followed by a sharp rebound in June 2025 [10] Group 6: Conclusion - The influence of economic cycles on forex is complex, driven by policy expectations, capital flows, and market reflexivity [11] - Identifying early signals and utilizing a "volatility prism" can lead to sustained profitability in the evolving landscape of sovereign credit shaped by digital currencies [11]

Core Insights - EMO Trans Group's strategy is driven by the need to adapt to geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring, focusing on diversifying markets while maintaining a strong presence in established regions [1][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 1965 in Germany, EMO Trans Group has evolved from traditional logistics to a multinational logistics enterprise with operations across Europe, America, Asia, and Australia [6]. - The company operates over 100 offices in 24 countries and collaborates with more than 250 partners across 120 countries, offering services such as sea freight, air freight, customs brokerage, and warehousing [6][9]. - In 2024, EMO Trans Group reported revenues of $5.8 billion, handling 9,600 tons of air freight and 110,000 TEUs of sea freight [6][9]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company targets countries ranked in the top 40%-50% of GDP, which account for 80%-90% of global trade market share, as a basis for market entry [1][8]. - Recent expansions include acquisitions in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam) and Eastern Europe (Romania, Poland), with a notable opening of six offices in India in one day [8][9]. Group 3: Operational Resilience - EMO Trans Group operates as a debt-free private enterprise, emphasizing flexibility to adapt to geopolitical changes while maintaining robust operations [9]. - The company plans to diversify its business over the next 10-20 years, focusing on Europe and Latin America as key strategic areas [9]. - Technological advancements are being implemented, including the launch of the CargoWise AI system and plans for a unified global operating system by 2025, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [9]. Group 4: China Operations - EMO Trans Group has been active in China since the 1990s, with a focus on providing seamless logistics services and maintaining long-term client relationships [10][12]. - The company has adjusted its business model in China, reducing reliance on the U.S. market from over 70% to 46%-51% since 2018, in response to trade regionalization trends [12][15]. - Future plans include expanding service points in cities like Xi'an and Suzhou and diversifying operations through acquisitions, particularly in the rail sector [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "super cycles" in the stock market, highlighting historical periods of significant economic growth and the factors that drive these cycles, as well as the current transition to a "post-modern cycle" characterized by new challenges and opportunities. Group 1: Historical Super Cycles - Buffett's early investment success was significantly higher than the Dow Jones index, particularly from 1957 to 1968, during a post-war bull market [1][2] - The period from 1982 to 2000 saw a modern cycle driven by the resolution of inflation, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieving an average annual real return of 15% [8][9] - The post-financial crisis cycle from 2009 to 2020 marked the longest bull market, influenced by quantitative easing and low interest rates, despite a significant drop in the S&P 500 index [10][11] Group 2: Characteristics of Super Cycles - Super cycles are characterized by three main factors: initial low valuations, declining or low funding costs, and low initial yields [11][12] - Strong economic growth and regulatory reforms contribute to reducing the risk premium in the stock market, enhancing market returns [12] Group 3: "Fat and Flat" Periods - The period from 1968 to 1982 experienced high inflation and low returns, with the S&P 500's nominal total return at -5% [15][16] - The 2000 to 2009 period was marked by a tech bubble burst and subsequent bear market, leading to low overall investor returns despite significant volatility [17][18] Group 4: Current and Future Cycles - The current "post-modern cycle" reflects characteristics of both classical and modern cycles, with rising costs of capital and a shift towards regionalization driven by geopolitical tensions [20][23] - Factors driving the post-modern cycle include rising funding costs, slowing economic growth, and increased government spending and debt [23][25][26] - The changing demographic landscape and geopolitical tensions are expected to create new investment opportunities and risks [26][27]