经济观察网 中国物流与采购联合会今天（15日）在2025年采购与供应管理大会上发布《全球供应链发 展趋势蓝皮书（2025）》。根据蓝皮书，目前全球供应链正加快向中国等新兴市场转移，并呈现出区域 化、数智化与绿色化等特征。中国正通过"双循环"、"新质生产力"等战略积极应对变局，为全球供应链 优化提供了"中国方案"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful acquisition of the first-level general contracting qualification for construction engineering by China Communications First Public Bureau Shenzhen Company marks a significant milestone in its strategic development and enhances its competitive edge in the urban construction market [1][3]. Group 1: Qualification Upgrade - The Shenzhen company has obtained first-level qualifications in both housing construction and municipal engineering, which is a crucial step in implementing its "Strengthening Urban Development" strategy and advancing its "dual headquarters" initiative [1][3]. - The upgrade of the construction engineering general contracting qualification is seen as a key lever for expanding urban market space, enhancing core competitiveness in housing construction, and optimizing product structure [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implementation - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the Shenzhen company has actively responded to strategic directives from higher authorities, focusing on the development direction of "urbanization + specialization + regionalization" [3]. - A special working group was established to oversee the qualification upgrade process, with top leadership personally involved in coordination and deployment to ensure smooth progress [3]. Group 3: Future Development - The successful upgrade to first-level qualification is viewed as a strong engine for future development, allowing the Shenzhen company to deepen its engagement in the urban market and continuously improve project management and construction capabilities [3]. - The company aims to leverage this new qualification as a starting point to contribute significantly to regional development strategies and the construction of high-quality projects [3].

Economic Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, leading to increased geopolitical fragmentation since 1975[2] - Geopolitical fragmentation index shows that a one standard deviation negative shock can reduce global GDP by approximately -0.4%, peaking within one to two years[5] - Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more severely impacted by external shocks compared to developed regions[5] Sectoral and Regional Variations - Industries closely tied to global markets, such as manufacturing and finance, face the most significant disruptions due to geopolitical risks[5] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU region, affecting global economic dynamics[5] - In contrast, sectors like agriculture and real estate, which are more localized, experience relatively minor impacts[5] Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Higher exposure to external political risks correlates with increased innovation activities, such as patent filings and R&D spending[8] - Private sector initiatives drive innovation in response to geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the importance of market incentives[8] - Medium-innovation firms, which are sensitive to external risks, tend to increase R&D efforts more than both high-tech giants and low-innovation firms[8] Long-term Implications for Economic Growth - Strengthening domestic innovation capabilities can help mitigate risks associated with global supply chains and enhance resilience[8] - Countries that can achieve technological advancements and industry upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition[8]