Workflow
全球供需矛盾
icon
Search documents
百利好早盘分析:内部博弈激烈 美联储形象受损
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 01:52
Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting a potential short-term upward trend for gold [2] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the political influence on the Fed, threatening its independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a minor upward structure on the hourly chart, but faces pressure at the key level of $3401 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, making it difficult to reverse the current downtrend due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [4] - The International Energy Agency's latest report indicates that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [4] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising expectations of a supply surplus to 1.64 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis shows that oil has formed a minor upward structure on the daily chart, but the potential for a downward ABC pattern is significant, with short-term pressure at $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term resistance at $4.43 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment, with potential new lows expected [6] - Technical analysis suggests that the index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with short-term resistance at 42550 [6]