Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and the Houthi forces, which is driving up global market risk aversion and impacting oil prices [4][6][10] Group 2 - The situation has led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil futures, which rose over 3.9% to above $101 per barrel, reflecting heightened market concerns about regional conflicts [4] - President Trump stated that Iran is seeking a dialogue with the U.S., characterizing them as the party "pleading for an agreement," while also emphasizing the threat posed by Houthi forces in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait [6][8] - The Houthis have declared a willingness to respond militarily if necessary, which raises shipping risks in a critical maritime route that connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, further influencing oil price dynamics [8][9] - Reports indicate that Iran has mobilized over one million individuals for ground combat, marking a significant military preparation signal that heightens market fears of an escalation in conflict [9][10]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.78%[3] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.43%[3] - The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 2.33%[3] - The CSI 300 Index grew by 1.28%[3] - The total A-share market index increased by 2.11%[3] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sector was Environmental Protection, with a rise of 4.29%[3] - Textile and Apparel sector increased by 3.99%[3] - The worst-performing sector was Oil and Petrochemicals, which fell by 0.86%[3] - The Coal sector decreased by 0.49%[3] Conceptual Indices - The High Send Transfer Index surged by 8.11%[3] - The Minimum Market Value Index rose by 6.73%[3] - The Coal Mining Selected Index only increased by 0.07%[3] Geopolitical Events - Iran and Pakistan emphasized diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf[5] - U.S. President Trump announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure[5] - These developments contributed to a drop in oil prices and a rise in precious metals and U.S. stock index futures[5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the easing of geopolitical tensions and potential new policy support for technology innovation[8] - There is a need to observe if market sentiment shifts from cautious to positive, potentially increasing trading volume[8] - Risks include escalating geopolitical tensions and volatility in commodity prices[8]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unstable, leading to heightened market risk aversion. Following the airstrike by the US and Israel on Iran, which resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the region has entered a period of turmoil. The uncertainty in the Middle East is expected to continue, affecting market sentiment [1] - The stock market experienced significant adjustments on Monday, with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and continued to decline, seeking support near the annual line. The Shenzhen Component Index also opened lower and fell below the six-month line, with declines comparable to the Shanghai index. The total trading volume for the day was approximately 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous Friday [1] - Market focus shifted towards upstream resource products such as coal and oil, with widespread declines across major indices. The small and mid-cap stocks experienced larger drops. The Shanghai Composite Index has been on a downward trend since reaching a new high in early March, with the market's focus shifting downward at an accelerated rate [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken below the previous year's low point, with the main support level now moving down to near the annual line. This indicates a bearish trend in the market as it seeks new support levels [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Observation of Stock Index Options: Market Risk Aversion is Strong, Suggesting a Defensive Approach" [1] Core View - Last week, the implied volatility of each option continued to rise significantly. The average implied volatility of the at-the-money options for April IO, HO, and MO is around 18%, 18.2%, and 27.01% respectively, with premiums of about 3.18, 3, and 1.56 percentage points compared to the 30-day historical volatility. The implied volatility premiums of IO and HO options are slightly high. The 30-day historical volatility of the underlying has gradually risen above the 60-day historical volatility, and technically, the volatility is in an upward cycle. Due to the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation and the relatively restrained pricing of the tail risk brought by high oil prices in the equity market, it is expected that the short-term implied volatility may still rise [4] - The decline of the underlying index drives the implied volatility to rise synchronously, indicating that the short-term option market's risk aversion willingness is still strong. The decline of the IO option position PCR value is more restrained than that of the MO option. Compared with the small and medium-cap index, option sellers are more optimistic about the large-cap index. It is expected that the downside space of the CSI 300 index in the short term is generally limited [4] - In terms of position distribution, the contract with the highest call option position of MO has moved down to the 8300-point level. During the market decline on Friday, the call contract with a strike price of 8000 added more than 2000 lots. From the perspective of selling options, it is expected that the upside of the CSI 1000 index will still face relatively large pressure in the short term [4] - In terms of strategies, due to the relatively strong short-term market risk aversion sentiment, investors are advised to mainly sell out-of-the-money call options of MO at high prices. Investors with long positions in stock index futures can consider using collar strategies to prevent short-term market uncertainty risks [4] Directory Summary 01 Stock Index Option Data Tracking - **成交持仓情况**: The report presents data on trading volume and open interest, but specific data details are not described in the text [8][11] - **PCR值与标的指数走势**: The relationship between the PCR value and the underlying index trend is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [15] - **持仓量分布情况**: The position distribution of HO2604, IO2604, and MO2604 is shown through charts, including the distribution of call and put option positions [21][23] - **近一年波动率锥**: The volatility cone data for the past year is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [26][29] - **隐含波动率和历史波动率**: The relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [32][35] - **波动率曲面结构**: The volatility surface structure is mentioned, but specific content is not provided [50] - **偏度与标的指数走势**: The relationship between skewness and the underlying index trend is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [55][58]

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to adjust, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, closing at 3957.05, down 1.24%, indicating strong selling pressure near the 4000-point mark [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed relative resilience, closing at 13866.20, down 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index rose 1.30% to 3352.10, highlighting a divergence in market performance [2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.30 trillion, an increase of 8.3% from the previous trading day, indicating overall market activity [2] Sector Performance - The market exhibited a clear structural characteristic with most sectors declining, except for communication, power equipment, and new energy, which rose by 1.44%, 1.13%, and 0.11% respectively [5] - Notable increases were seen in photovoltaic inverters, optical modules, lithium battery electrolytes, and energy storage indices, which rose by 7.22%, 2.90%, 2.76%, and 2.47% respectively, driven by strong demand in the new energy sector [5] - Conversely, sectors such as comprehensive finance, computers, defense, and media led the declines, with drops of 4.98%, 3.94%, 3.15%, and 2.99% respectively [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market experienced a decline, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2606) falling by 0.42% to close at 110.67, and the 10-year bond futures (T2606) down 0.09% to 108.255 [12] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 205 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan for the day [12] - The bond market's overall trend remains weak, influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 1.25%, with the South China commodity index closing at 3080.83, reflecting a weak overall market performance [9] - LPG, manganese silicon, apples, corn starch, and ethylene glycol were among the top gainers, with increases of 8.44%, 3.46%, 2.92%, 2.72%, and 2.51% respectively [9] - Conversely, paraxylene, PTA, bottle flakes, silver, and low-sulfur fuel oil saw declines of -4.46%, -4.54%, -6.05%, -6.25%, and -8.28% respectively [9] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, consumer goods, brokerage firms, precious metals, and energy chemicals, each driven by specific growth catalysts and market dynamics [13] - The focus for artificial intelligence includes capital expenditure changes among leading companies and the transformation of application scenarios [13] - For commercial aerospace, attention is on domestic reusable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs from overseas leaders like SpaceX [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 5.18% last week, with the energy and chemical sector leading the gain at 9.76%, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. Due to uncertainties in war and the global economic outlook, the energy price fluctuates sharply, and the dollar is strong. The commodity market faces correction pressure and may fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 5.18% last week. The energy and chemical sector led the gain at 9.76%, followed by the agricultural and black sectors with increases of 2.72% and 2.69% respectively. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. The top - rising varieties were fuel oil, PTA, and crude oil, with increases of 19.08%, 14.23%, and 12.94% respectively. The top - falling varieties were tin, apple, and silver, with decreases of 4.97%, 3.08%, and 2.83% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with the energy and chemical and oilseed sectors having sharp fluctuations, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors mainly saw volatility decline. The overall market scale increased significantly last week, with the energy and chemical sector attracting over 40 billion yuan, and only the black sector having a small net outflow of funds [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors 3.2.1 Precious Metals - The unadjusted core CPI annual rate in the US in February was 2.5%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The sector has been suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and continues to oscillate at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decisions of central banks including the Fed this week [2]. 3.2.2 Non - ferrous Metals - The market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the strong US dollar index has put pressure on the sector. The manufacturing PMI in the Northern Hemisphere in February was stable, indicating that the market may enter the peak season more quickly. After the price decline, the downstream spot procurement has improved, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory still put pressure on the sector [2]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up week - on - week, production increased synchronously, and inventory accumulation slowed down significantly, basically reaching an inflection point. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and the molten iron output dropped significantly. After the conference, production will resume quickly, but the poor steel mill profits still limit the recovery space. For raw materials, the domestic arrival volume of iron ore decreased significantly, and the rising oil price provided phased cost support. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a premium to Mongolian coal. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, but the suppression was slightly weak. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.2.4 Energy - Last week, IEA member countries decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest scale in history. However, with the Holmuoz Strait still unable to fully resume opening, resulting in a daily oil transportation gap of over 10 million barrels, the market's bullish sentiment continued to heat up. EIA weekly data showed that crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly declined, indicating that the market is worried that the war will disrupt global trade and drive up the demand for refined oil. Oil prices are expected to remain high before the strait resumes safe passage [3]. 3.2.5 Chemicals - Since the conflict broke out, the futures prices of crude oil and many downstream oil - chemical products have risen significantly. The fundamentals of asphalt have improved marginally recently. The planned production volume of local refineries is at a low level in the same period in recent years, and it may be relatively strong under the release of the catch - up increase momentum. The import of methanol is expected to continue to tighten. The phased decline in domestic supply and the recovery of demand may keep it running strongly. For polyester, the terminal is mainly digesting inventory, and polyester filament inventory has increased. The high cost affects the negotiation of terminal orders, and the downstream recovery may slow down, with negative feedback pressure on the market [3]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products - Over the weekend, Brazil loosened its soybean export inspection policy to some extent. Some large international grain trading companies have resumed export shipments to China. The market is worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and soybean meal have all declined. Under the tense energy situation, the marginal demand for biodiesel has improved. Indonesia has released policy expectations and may restrict the export of palm oil due to the tense energy situation. The oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term, and palm oil may be relatively strong [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around - 0.73%, with a total scale of 34.5334 billion yuan and a 1.61% increase in share. The energy and chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a 14.24% weekly return, with a scale of 3.537 billion yuan and a 5.28% increase in share. The soybean meal ETF (such as the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a 7.74% weekly return, with a scale of 3.062 billion yuan and a 0.42% increase in share. The non - ferrous ETF (such as the Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a 0.10% weekly return, with a scale of 8.37 billion yuan and a 1.36% decrease in share. The silver fund (such as the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a 2.15% weekly return, with a scale of 10.447 billion yuan and no change in share [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Bonds, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers. Long positions can be considered in the medium to long term by taking advantage of the discount of stock index futures [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as asset allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the downside is limited as downstream industries resume production, and they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the cost support emerges despite weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply concerns and inflation risks [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and macro - emotional fluctuations [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance [1]. - Tin prices are greatly affected by the macro situation and have declined [1]. - Precious metal prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly due to oil price fluctuations and a strong US dollar [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term until the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear [1]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon investment should be on the sidelines due to liquidity risks [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, battery exports, and mine disruptions [1]. - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1]. - Hot rolled coil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to de - stocking pressure [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating more sharply due to policy fluctuations, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts, policy incentives, and cost factors despite weak supply - demand [1]. - Bond prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the medium term due to more relaxed supply - demand, although affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the coking profit has been repaired [1]. - Palm oil prices are bullish due to tight supply - demand in the international market [1]. - Soybean oil prices are expected to rise following other oils and can be used for short - position hedging [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are bullish in the short term due to potential US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area decreases [1]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and the upside space needs new drivers [1]. - Pulp futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton [1]. - Log futures prices have fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pig prices are supported by demand, and production capacity needs further release [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost but have relatively weak influence in the energy sector [1]. - BR rubber prices are rising and have upward potential due to supply disruptions and cost support [1]. - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, supply shortages, and downstream demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices have risen due to raw material shortages [1]. - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disruptions and strong demand [1]. - Urea prices have limited upside due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol prices are affected by Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC prices are bullish due to geopolitical factors and capacity adjustments [1]. - PG prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical premiums, demand, and inventory [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has tightened, the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, driving up international oil prices significantly. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has generally maintained a volatile trend. - In terms of supply, the domestic stainless - steel crude steel production schedule in March is expected to reach 3.6945 million tons, which has rebounded to a relatively high level. As steel mill shipments become more stable, the market arrival volume continues to increase, and supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. - On the demand side, although downstream processing and end - user enterprises have fully resumed work, procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Market sentiment is generally cautious, and inventory - building and speculative demand are relatively limited. The pace of social inventory reduction is generally slow. - In terms of raw materials, the production cost of nickel - iron in Indonesia has now risen to 1,067 yuan per nickel point, and cost support has increased, providing a certain bottom - support for stainless - steel prices. - In summary, under the combined effects of emerging supply pressure, moderate demand release, and persistent cost support, it is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,800 yuan per ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons. On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [11][62]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is at a premium of about - 140 yuan (- 14) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is at a premium of about 60 yuan (- 4) compared to the main contract. The open interest on the futures market is 162,064 lots, a month - on - month decrease of - 6.78% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 is reported at - 185 (- 180), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 is reported at - 145 (- 160) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [32]. - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.64%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of +39.16% [35]. - In December 2025, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of +15.96% and a year - on - year increase of +5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of +8.06% [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of +0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.32%; in January, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of - 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.20% [48]. 3.5. Inventory - On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons [52]. - On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [55]. 3.6. Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of +31.13%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% is 74.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.2433 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.82% [59]. - On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [62]. - On March 13, the chromium ore quotation was 61 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 353 yuan per ton, and the profit margin is - 2.38% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market is highly uncertain in the short term, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. Shanghai gold night session closed down 0.94% at 1137.50 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.60% at 21706 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 12, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.429 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.852 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 19.5% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the daily price limit is 17%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 18%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the daily price limit is 20%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 21%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 22% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, with an estimate of 215,000 and a previous value of 213,000 [1] - Iran's new supreme leader stated in his first statement that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary. Trump said that the US makes a lot of money when oil prices rise and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and many ships can still pass through the strait if coordinated with the Iranian navy [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index rose 0.48% to 99.74, strengthening for the third consecutive trading day. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise to 4.269%. Iran's new supreme leader's first statement showed a tough stance. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 10.62% to $101.75 per barrel on Thursday, closing above the $100 mark again after four years. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, COMEX gold and COMEX silver both declined on Thursday. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran have supported the gold price to some extent due to market risk - aversion sentiment [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Tin - The short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious. There is still a long - term bullish logic for tin prices, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3] Copper - In the short - term, due to multiple factors, copper prices are oscillating around 100,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the center of copper prices is expected to rise. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [5] Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside space may be limited without significant recession risks at the macro level. However, if the downstream production resumption in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the upside space [7] Industrial Silicon - The cost increase may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. In March, supply and demand are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the production and sales recovery and cost fluctuations [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is currently oversupplied, but the low - cost photovoltaic power may be beneficial to the long - term development of photovoltaic demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10] Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [11] Nickel - The overseas macro uncertainty increases, and the raw material end contradictions support the price. The demand has improved slightly, but high inventory restricts the price increase. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly [12] Stainless Steel - The overseas macro risk uncertainty increases, the raw material end is tight, and the cost supports the price. The supply and demand are in a continuous game, and the short - term is expected to oscillate and adjust [16] Lithium Carbonate - The macro risk persists, and the fundamentals maintain resilience but lack strong drivers. The disk is expected to oscillate widely around the macro expectations, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [19] Aluminum Alloy - The short - term market will continue to oscillate in the context of weak supply and demand. The key turning points of the market lie in the downstream production resumption rhythm, order recovery, and scrap aluminum circulation improvement [21] Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - The price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 394,000 yuan/ton, down 1,350 yuan or 0.34%. The LME 0 - 3 spread is 400, up 40.00%. The import profit and loss is - 8,294.19 yuan/ton, up 870.91 yuan or 9.50%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1] Fundamental Data - In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, up 16.81% month - on - month. In February, the SMM refined tin output was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [2] Inventory - The SHEF weekly inventory is 11,663 tons, down 4.82%. The social inventory is 13,082 tons, down 0.21%. The SHEF daily warehouse receipt is 12,360 tons, up 23.22%. The LME daily inventory is 8,630 tons, up 0.29% [3] Copper Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100,670 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [5] Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper output was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. In December, the electrolytic copper import volume was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month [5] Inventory - The domestic social inventory is 57.39 million tons, down 0.57%. The bonded area inventory is 0 million tons, down 100%. The SHFE inventory is 42.51 million tons, up 8.59% [5] Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The import profit and loss is - 2,665 yuan/ton, up 82.05 yuan [7] Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc output was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month [7] Inventory - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory is 26.88 million tons, up 4.88%. The LME inventory is 0.02 million tons, down 0.15% [7] Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of South China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% month - on - month. The national operating rate is 38.02%, down 21.33% month - on - month [9] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory is 13.98 million tons, up 0.58%. The social inventory is 55.20 million tons, down 0.18% [9] Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,000 yuan/ton, down 2.65%. The主力 contract price is 42,760 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [10] Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output is 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%. The monthly polysilicon output is 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% [10] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory is 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%. The silicon wafer inventory is 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [10] Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 3,974 yuan/ton, down 3368 yuan [11] Fundamental Data - In February, the alumina output was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% month - on - month [11] Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.40 million tons, up 3.03%. The LME inventory is 44.7 million tons, down 0.63% [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 140,950 yuan/ton, up 0.86%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 144,350 yuan/ton, up 0.80% [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 32,600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 84.63% [12] Inventory - The SHFE inventory is 61,769 tons, up 1.61%. The social inventory is 84,537 tons, up 10.45%. The LME inventory is 286,248 tons, down 0.29% [12] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 companies) is 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume is 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [16] Inventory - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 53.21 million tons, down 1.19%. The SHFE warehouse receipt is 5.13 million tons, down 0.34% [16] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [19] Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [19] Inventory - The lithium carbonate total inventory in February was 28,323 tons, down 4.76%. The lithium carbonate downstream inventory was 39,997 tons, down 5.01% [19] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25,200 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The Foshan crushed raw aluminum refined - scrap spread is 3,066 yuan/ton, up 11.45% [21] Fundamental Data - In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [21] Inventory - The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 3.91 million tons, down 5.56%. The recycled aluminum alloy factory finished product inventory is 13.60 million tons, down 8.11% [21]