Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in 30-year Japanese government bond yields to historical highs has raised concerns about the global bond market, indicating potential structural issues within the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in 30-year Japanese bond yields began in mid-April and has led to fears of a "value trap," where bonds appear cheap but may continue to decline in value due to structural supply-demand imbalances [2][3][6]. - Since early April, the 30-year Japanese bond yield has increased by 85 basis points, while the 30-year U.S. bond yield rose by 60 basis points during the same period [3]. - For dollar investors, the 30-year Japanese bond yield, after currency hedging, stands at 7.03%, significantly higher than the 4.96% yield of the 30-year U.S. bond [4]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Implications - The issues in the Japanese bond market may serve as a warning signal for the global bond market, reflecting three major trends affecting bond markets worldwide: persistent inflation pressures, declining demand from asset-liability management (ALM) investors, and high government financing needs [8]. - Japan's core inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for two consecutive years, contributing to rising equilibrium yields [8]. - The demand for long-term bonds is decreasing as market interest rates rise, with domestic holdings of long-term bonds stabilizing [8]. Group 3: Potential Responses from the Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan's future policy direction is a focal point for market observers, with potential measures including reducing the maturity of issued debt, fiscal constraints, adjusting the quantitative tightening path, and possibly restarting a rate hike cycle [13][14][18]. - The expectation is that the Bank of Japan will maintain a steady pace of reducing its bond purchases, with a target of 2 trillion yen per month starting in April 2026 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The sharp rise in Japan's 30-year government bond yields signals potential structural issues in the global bond market, with Japan's situation possibly serving as a "canary in the coal mine" for broader market concerns [1][8]. Group 1: Japan's Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's 30-year government bond yields have surged to historical highs, now comparable to Germany's, raising alarms about the global bond market [1]. - Morgan Stanley warns of a "value trap" in Japanese bonds, where seemingly cheap bonds may continue to depreciate due to structural supply-demand imbalances [3][7]. - Since early April, the 30-year Japanese bond yield has increased by 85 basis points, outpacing the 60 basis point rise in U.S. bonds during the same period [3]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Implications - High inflation pressures, declining demand from asset-liability management (ALM) investors, and high government financing needs are identified as three global trends affecting bond markets [9]. - Japan's core inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for two consecutive years, contributing to rising equilibrium yields [9]. - The ongoing high fiscal deficits in developed markets are expected to keep debt issuance levels elevated, further pressuring long-term bonds [9]. Group 3: U.S. Bond Market Concerns - The rise in Japanese bond yields is expected to influence U.S. Treasury yields, potentially steepening the yield curve [2][11]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that the risk-reward ratio for long-term U.S. bonds is less favorable compared to short-term bonds, with a significant disparity in risk-adjusted returns [11]. - The attractiveness of hedged Japanese bonds may lead to a reallocation of investment portfolios, putting additional downward pressure on the U.S. long-term bond market [11]. Group 4: Potential Responses from the Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan's future policy direction is under scrutiny, with potential measures including adjusting the duration of issued debt and maintaining a steady pace of quantitative tightening [13]. - A gradual return to interest rate hikes is anticipated, with expectations for the next rate increase in January 2026, which could flatten the yield curve and manage long-end risk premiums [13].