1、只有 经历周期才知道人性，慢慢的 不去 畏惧 ， 而是拥抱 周期 。 2、做个庸俗的价值投资者，像收租婆一样关注分红，很多复杂问题就简单化了。 3、深度价值投资买进去三 五 年不动只吃分红， 它 是个 " 土豆 " 埋在地里；即使 地表寸草不生， 但地底 的土豆还在 ； 当 大饥荒时，土豆 也能成为 很重要的营养补充品 。 所以 ， 量化 的 野蛮生长突出了深度价值投资者的超额收益来源。 现在的保险、国家队还有我们，通过坚持深度价值投资，即重视基本面、分红， 成为了"土豆投资 人"。 4、我把投资比作" 骑驴看马"：驴指的是能提供稳定年化回报的资产，马则是市场暴跌时才会出现的特 殊交易机会。驴是常有的，马不常有。 所以不管客户是在市场高点还是其他时点有资金流入，都应该先骑驴，保证获得年化 10%左右的稳定 回报，再等待马的出现。 5、有时候，对 " 低价 "的贪婪，本质上也是一种贪婪。 6、 底部买资产这件事，本质上是偶然性的，很难刻意追求。 7、年轻时总想着做难题，但到了中年才发现， 做简单题反而更难，尤其是在我们这个高学历人群聚集 的行业里，能沉下心做简单的事，需要极大的定力。 信璞投资 归江 8月2 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - High dividend yield does not equate to low risk, and pursuing high dividend rates may lead to "value traps" [3] - Historical high dividends do not guarantee future sustainability, as some cyclical stocks may distribute large dividends during peak performance, which may not be maintainable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Feitian Moutai below 2000 yuan has triggered a downward trend in the liquor stocks, indicating a significant downturn in the high-end liquor market [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, the liquor index hit a new low, with Wuliangye's stock price down nearly 14% year-to-date, and Guizhou Moutai showing signs of fatigue [3][4] - The liquor sector has seen a complete downturn this year, with 19 stocks recording losses, 8 of which exceeded 20%, and the largest drop being 28.4% for Yingjia Gongjiu [3][4] - The liquor index has dropped 10.73% year-to-date, with a cumulative decline of 13.25% since mid-May, reflecting a nearly 44% retracement from the historical peak in 2021 [4][6] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price has fallen below the psychological barrier of 2000 yuan, indicating a weakening investment appeal and prompting speculative sell-offs [5][6] - The recent price drop of Feitian Moutai from 2100 yuan in mid-May to below 2000 yuan has raised concerns about the industry's overall health [5][6] - The current price trend suggests a shift in the supply-demand dynamics, with high-end liquor sales being adversely affected by new regulations and seasonal factors [6][7] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - New regulations on government alcohol consumption have further suppressed high-end liquor sales, as recent policies prohibit serving alcohol at official receptions [6][7] - The combination of seasonal demand fluctuations and regulatory changes has led to a significant impact on high-end liquor sales, particularly in the second quarter [6][7] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - The valuation levels of liquor stocks are nearing historical lows, with the Shenyin Wanguo liquor index's P/E ratio at 17.81, the second-lowest since June 2020 [8] - Guizhou Moutai's current P/E ratio is 20.14, while other leading liquor stocks are below 15, indicating a potential value trap for investors [8][9] - The market is advised to wait for stabilization in prices, channels, and inventory before reassessing investment opportunities in the liquor sector [8][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the common behaviors of investors in the stock market, particularly "bottom fishing" and "chasing highs" [1][2] - A real case is presented where an investor bought shares of Jiakai City at a price of 0.49 yuan after a significant drop of 96.5% from its peak of 12.99 yuan [3][4] - The investor aimed to benefit from a potential rebound after the stock was delisted, but the stock price further declined to 0.10 yuan, resulting in a substantial loss [7][8] Group 2 - The article highlights the common mistake of blindly "bottom fishing," referencing the 2008 financial crisis where many investors lost money by buying stocks they believed were undervalued [10][11] - It emphasizes the concept of "value traps," where stocks appear cheap but their fundamentals continue to deteriorate, leading to further declines [14] - The narrative suggests that trying to recover losses in the same failing investment can lead to deeper losses, illustrating the importance of recognizing when to stop investing in a losing position [15][30] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of "recouping thinking," which is a cognitive trap that can lead investors to make poor decisions based on past losses [17][18] - It explains the gambler's fallacy, where individuals mistakenly believe that past independent events will influence future outcomes, leading to irrational investment decisions [19][20] - The article discusses the anchoring effect, where investors fixate on previous high prices as reference points, ignoring the deteriorating fundamentals that may prevent a return to those levels [24] Group 4 - The article advocates for a more rational approach to resource allocation, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities with higher marginal returns rather than being tied to past losses [33][36] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing opportunity costs, where continued investment in a failing asset can prevent capital from being allocated to more promising opportunities [43] - The article concludes that in a rapidly changing environment, the ability to adapt and reallocate resources is more valuable than stubbornly trying to recover losses in a failing investment [68][72]

日债暴跌：正在形成一个"价值陷阱" 穆迪降级引发美债市场动荡，而30年期日债收益率近期的上涨幅度甚至超过了美债。 自4月初以来，30年期日债收益率已经飙升了85个基点，同期30年期美债收益率上升了60个基点。尽管货币对冲后的日债收益率对外国投资者看似极具吸引 力， 但摩根士丹利最新分析警告投资者，这可能是一个正在形成的"价值陷阱"。 日本长期国债崩塌，会是全球债券市场的"金丝雀"预警？ 近期，30年期日本国债收益率急剧上升至历史高位，目前已与德国30年期国债收益率相当，这在历史上很少出现。这一上升趋势始于4月中旬并持续至今，引 发了市场对全球债市的担忧。 据追风交易台， 摩根士丹利在最新的报告中表示，结构性供需失衡导致日债陷入"价值陷阱"，即便货币对冲后债券看起来"便宜"但可能进一步下跌。 进一步来看，日债崩塌或是全球债市结构性问题的预警信号，高盛在报告中表示，全球债市面临共同的三重压力：持续通胀压力、ALM投资者需求下降、政府 融资需求高企。 大摩也警告，日债持续走弱暗示美国长期国债也面临同样命运，美债收益率曲线可能进一步陡峭化。 从表面数据看，日债对外国投资者的吸引力确实惊人。大摩报告指出： 对美元投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sharp rise in Japan's 30-year government bond yields signals potential structural issues in the global bond market, with Japan's situation possibly serving as a "canary in the coal mine" for broader market concerns [1][8]. Group 1: Japan's Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's 30-year government bond yields have surged to historical highs, now comparable to Germany's, raising alarms about the global bond market [1]. - Morgan Stanley warns of a "value trap" in Japanese bonds, where seemingly cheap bonds may continue to depreciate due to structural supply-demand imbalances [3][7]. - Since early April, the 30-year Japanese bond yield has increased by 85 basis points, outpacing the 60 basis point rise in U.S. bonds during the same period [3]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Implications - High inflation pressures, declining demand from asset-liability management (ALM) investors, and high government financing needs are identified as three global trends affecting bond markets [9]. - Japan's core inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for two consecutive years, contributing to rising equilibrium yields [9]. - The ongoing high fiscal deficits in developed markets are expected to keep debt issuance levels elevated, further pressuring long-term bonds [9]. Group 3: U.S. Bond Market Concerns - The rise in Japanese bond yields is expected to influence U.S. Treasury yields, potentially steepening the yield curve [2][11]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that the risk-reward ratio for long-term U.S. bonds is less favorable compared to short-term bonds, with a significant disparity in risk-adjusted returns [11]. - The attractiveness of hedged Japanese bonds may lead to a reallocation of investment portfolios, putting additional downward pressure on the U.S. long-term bond market [11]. Group 4: Potential Responses from the Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan's future policy direction is under scrutiny, with potential measures including adjusting the duration of issued debt and maintaining a steady pace of quantitative tightening [13]. - A gradual return to interest rate hikes is anticipated, with expectations for the next rate increase in January 2026, which could flatten the yield curve and manage long-end risk premiums [13].

Core Viewpoint - PayPal Holdings has seen significant stock price fluctuations, currently trading near its lowest valuation since going public, reflecting a decline in investor sentiment towards the fintech company [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Under CEO Alex Chriss, who took over in 2023, PayPal is focused on improving profit margins and reigniting growth [2][8] - The company is implementing initiatives like PayPal Complete Payments to enhance user engagement and profit margins [9] - PayPal's stock has become more affordable, trading at one of its cheapest valuations since its spin-off from eBay in 2015 [6] Group 2: Market Challenges - PayPal has experienced a slowdown in growth, with competition from major players like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and others impacting its market position [3] - The company's take rate, which is the percentage of transaction value retained as revenue, has been declining due to increased competition [4] - Concerns arose after PayPal's 2024 full-year results, particularly regarding slow growth in unbranded transactions and conservative earnings guidance [5] Group 3: Growth Opportunities - PayPal is leveraging its first-mover advantage in the payment space, with 85% of survey respondents using its services, compared to 54% for its closest competitor, Block's Cash App [11] - The company is expanding its ad business, PayPal Ads, to sell programmatic ads, aiming to enhance its platform and grow ad revenue [10] - A $15 billion stock buyback authorization has been approved to reduce outstanding shares and boost earnings per share, indicating the company's belief in its undervalued stock [12]