2025 年，资本市场仍处于复杂波动的周期之中，投资者如何在进攻与防守之间找到平衡，实现稳健穿越？在 2025 年雪球嘉年华主会场的压轴环 节，雪球副总裁张舒冰、丹书铁券投资经理陈俊涛、黑森投资创始人周涛，围绕价值投资在当下的实践与挑战，展开了一场深入而开放的思辨。 价值陷阱的识别与规避 张舒冰： 长期低估背后可能有深层原因，两位如何区分价值与价值陷阱？持仓过程中遇到过最大的价值陷阱误判是什么？后续做了哪些迭代优化？ 低估与确定性的抉择 张舒冰： 确定性往往意味着市场高度共识和较好的流动性，低估则意味着悲观和分歧。当二者无法两全时，两位如何决策？能否结合过往案例分 享？ 陈俊涛： 低估和确定性并不矛盾，很多时候是相辅相成的，投资最好选择同时具备这两大特质的标的。 2021 年初，中国核心资产被剔除出美国证券交易标的时，就出现了既低估又有确定性的标的，以通信行业某龙头公司为例，当时其市值不到 7000 亿港币，却拥有 4000 亿左右的现金及现金等价物，每年盈利达 1000 亿，既具备低估属性，又有明确的价值支撑。 周涛： 价值投资倾向于在仔细研究和耐心等待过程中，捕捉低估且确定性高的机会。但多数时间里，不是每 ...

中泰证券指出，富时中国A股自由现金流指数成份股集中分布在原材料、工业和可选消费行业，行业防 御属性相对较强。在震荡下跌市中，自由现金流指数跑赢全市场，展现出避险功能。从因子表现看，自 由现金流率与股息率呈显著正相关，现金流充裕的公司更倾向于稳定分红，规避了缺乏现金流支撑 的"价值陷阱"。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，感兴趣的投资者或可持续关注。 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of AI technology is significantly enhancing the power of quantitative investment, leading to increased market attention on public quantitative investment strategies [1] - Huang Zhigang, Assistant General Manager and Head of Quantitative Investment at Nanhua Fund, emphasizes the limitations of traditional multi-factor models, which are based on historical data and fail to address long-term market effectiveness [1][4] - Huang identifies three key issues that an excellent quantitative investment model must solve: constructing investment safety margins, identifying value traps, and reasonably defining company prices [4][5] Quantitative Investment Framework - Huang's quantitative investment framework is summarized as "value stock selection and dual rotation," focusing on core factors such as Dividend Payout Ratio (DR), Return on Equity (ROE), and Earnings Yield (EP) [2] - The first step in the model involves predicting each company's ROE and EP, followed by calculating the Potential Return (IR) and ranking stocks based on IR values to build an investment portfolio [2][4] - The approach aims to find good companies at good prices, leveraging the objectivity, efficiency, and discipline of quantitative investment [2][5] Stock Selection and Adjustment - Stocks selected through this method are not static; they are continuously adjusted based on factor changes [3] - Huang constructs a foundational stock pool by selecting stocks that have declined significantly over the past 3 to 5 years, updating this pool daily to achieve a "buy low, sell high" strategy [3] Performance Metrics - As of now, Huang manages four funds with a total scale exceeding 1 billion yuan, with notable performance metrics such as a net value growth rate of over 87% for Nanhua Fenghui Mixed A since inception [4] - The Nanhua Fengyuan Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed A, managed since January 2024, has achieved a net value growth rate exceeding 38% [4] Risk Management and Strategy - Huang highlights the importance of balancing "good companies" and "good prices," aiming for a better equilibrium between the two rather than focusing solely on short-term performance [5] - The quantitative investment strategy includes risk control measures such as maintaining a diversified portfolio, limiting individual stock weight, and ensuring a balanced strategy style [8] - The fund's turnover rate is kept stable at around 12 times, with a holding range of 80 to 130 stocks, aiming to smooth out volatility risks through relative excess returns [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's stock has significantly declined due to patent expirations and concerns about long-term growth, despite offering a high yield [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pfizer's stock has decreased nearly 30% over the past five years, and despite its low valuation, investor interest remains low [2]. - The company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13, compared to the S&P 500 average of 25, indicating it is undervalued [4]. Group 2: Earnings and Guidance - Pfizer has reported solid results in recent quarters and raised its guidance in August, with the third-quarter earnings report expected on November 4 [2][5]. - A strong outlook and positive earnings performance may be necessary to attract investors and improve stock performance [6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Investor hesitance in healthcare stocks is attributed to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and government policies, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund only up over 5% compared to the S&P 500's nearly 15% increase [9]. - Recent government actions, including a landmark agreement with Pfizer to lower drug prices and a commitment to invest $70 billion in U.S. research and development, may influence future investor sentiment [5].

Core Insights - The strategy of overseas investors heavily buying Japanese long-term government bonds is facing significant setbacks as the 30-year Japanese bond yield surged to over 3.2%, a historical high [1] - The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates since January, and persistent inflation is impacting the outlook for long-term bonds, with the Bloomberg long-term Japanese government bond dollar-hedged index down over 7% this year [1] - International investors had previously invested a record 9.3 trillion yen in Japanese bonds in the first seven months of the year, but are now facing substantial losses [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market's volatility is affecting global markets, especially after the Bank of Japan's decision to abandon its yield curve control policy, which had previously anchored global borrowing costs [1] - Concerns over ongoing inflation and expanding fiscal deficits have led to synchronized volatility in major bond markets, amplifying global market panic [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment opportunity identified by Insight Investment's Brendan Murphy in the 30-year Japanese bonds has turned out to be a "value trap," where cheap assets continue to decline in value [2] - Overseas investor purchases of Japanese long-term bonds dropped to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rate hikes could resume if domestic demand remains stable, but traders expect the earliest rate increase to be in early 2026, keeping the main policy rate at 0.75%, significantly below the 3.1% annual inflation rate [3] - Demand for two-year Japanese government bonds reached its weakest level in 16 years, indicating investor caution regarding potential rate hikes later this year [3] Group 4: Structural Challenges - The Japanese bond market faces multiple structural challenges, including the impact of an aging population, which has led insurance companies to require fewer long-term bonds to match their liabilities [4] - Net purchases of ultra-long Japanese bonds by trust banks have decreased by approximately 34% compared to the five-year average, and insurance companies are expected to become net sellers of ultra-long bonds for the first time in history [4] Group 5: Potential Opportunities - Despite the setbacks, some investors remain optimistic as Japan has begun to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help balance supply and demand [5] - Reports indicate that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is consulting with dealers about potentially reducing ultra-long bond issuance again, and new bottom-fishing funds are emerging, planning to purchase unhedged long-term Japanese bonds next month [6] - Murphy maintains his strategy, anticipating that if inflation concerns ease, the 30-year yield could drop to around 2.75%, leading to total returns exceeding 10% for investors entering at current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with rising yields and declining demand, leading to concerns about the sustainability of investments in long-term Japanese government bonds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After a significant sell-off of Japanese government bonds at the end of last year, investors like Brendan Murphy from Insight Investment saw an opportunity in 30-year bonds, which offered attractive yields near historical highs [2]. - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to maintain its monetary policy without raising interest rates has contributed to the ongoing pressure on long-term bonds, with yields reaching over 3.2%, erasing previous gains for investors [2][3]. - The global bond market is also affected by Japan's bond market fluctuations, as rising yields in Japan have led to synchronized volatility across global fixed-income markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges, some investors remain optimistic about Japanese bonds, with Insight Investment's Murphy still holding his positions, believing in the potential for future gains if inflation concerns ease [2][7]. - However, other investment firms, such as PGIM, view the current situation as a "value trap," where bonds appear cheap but may continue to decline in value [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - Foreign investment in Japanese long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with net purchases dropping to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [4]. - The aging population in Japan is leading to a structural decline in demand for long-term bonds, as pension funds and insurance companies are becoming hesitant to invest [5][6]. - The BOJ's gradual reduction in bond purchases is further weakening market support, contributing to the downward pressure on bond prices [3][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the BOJ may need to raise interest rates to improve the performance of long-term bonds, with expectations for a potential rate hike not occurring until early 2026 [5]. - There are signs of potential recovery, as the Japanese government has started to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7]. - Certain investors are beginning to enter the market, betting on a bottoming out of Japanese long-term bonds, with expectations of significant returns if yields decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - Emphasizing the importance of a "mindset of owning assets" in value investing, which simplifies complex issues by focusing on dividends and long-term holdings [3][7][12]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Value investing should focus on acquiring good companies at low costs and holding them indefinitely, which is considered the best strategy [16][17]. - The concept of "riding a donkey to watch a horse" illustrates the strategy of securing stable annual returns while waiting for special trading opportunities during market downturns [4][60]. - The approach of being a "potato investor" signifies a long-term investment strategy where assets are held for their underlying value, regardless of market conditions [3][45]. Group 2: Market Insights - Current market conditions are seen as favorable for value investing, with many high-quality assets available at reasonable prices [64][65]. - The Chinese stock market is not in a bubble state, making it suitable for value investment strategies [7][64]. - The trend of increasing dividends is expected as companies shift from capital expenditure to returning cash to shareholders [49][50]. Group 3: Risk Management - Value traps arise from poor governance, low reinvestment returns, and a focus on past performance rather than future cash flows [35][36]. - The importance of understanding the cyclical nature of markets and human behavior is highlighted, suggesting that investors should embrace cycles rather than fear them [26][22]. Group 4: Asset Allocation - Investors should assess their asset composition and adjust their portfolios based on their financial needs and risk tolerance, particularly as the demographic of wealth holders ages [52][53]. - The focus should be on dividend yield as a key metric for evaluating asset performance, especially in comparison to other investment returns [48][70]. Group 5: Practical Investment Strategies - The strategy of prioritizing dividend-paying stocks over speculative investments is recommended to ensure steady income [67][70]. - Investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in less crowded markets where high-quality assets are available [71].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - High dividend yield does not equate to low risk, and pursuing high dividend rates may lead to "value traps" [3] - Historical high dividends do not guarantee future sustainability, as some cyclical stocks may distribute large dividends during peak performance, which may not be maintainable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Feitian Moutai below 2000 yuan has triggered a downward trend in the liquor stocks, indicating a significant downturn in the high-end liquor market [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, the liquor index hit a new low, with Wuliangye's stock price down nearly 14% year-to-date, and Guizhou Moutai showing signs of fatigue [3][4] - The liquor sector has seen a complete downturn this year, with 19 stocks recording losses, 8 of which exceeded 20%, and the largest drop being 28.4% for Yingjia Gongjiu [3][4] - The liquor index has dropped 10.73% year-to-date, with a cumulative decline of 13.25% since mid-May, reflecting a nearly 44% retracement from the historical peak in 2021 [4][6] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price has fallen below the psychological barrier of 2000 yuan, indicating a weakening investment appeal and prompting speculative sell-offs [5][6] - The recent price drop of Feitian Moutai from 2100 yuan in mid-May to below 2000 yuan has raised concerns about the industry's overall health [5][6] - The current price trend suggests a shift in the supply-demand dynamics, with high-end liquor sales being adversely affected by new regulations and seasonal factors [6][7] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - New regulations on government alcohol consumption have further suppressed high-end liquor sales, as recent policies prohibit serving alcohol at official receptions [6][7] - The combination of seasonal demand fluctuations and regulatory changes has led to a significant impact on high-end liquor sales, particularly in the second quarter [6][7] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - The valuation levels of liquor stocks are nearing historical lows, with the Shenyin Wanguo liquor index's P/E ratio at 17.81, the second-lowest since June 2020 [8] - Guizhou Moutai's current P/E ratio is 20.14, while other leading liquor stocks are below 15, indicating a potential value trap for investors [8][9] - The market is advised to wait for stabilization in prices, channels, and inventory before reassessing investment opportunities in the liquor sector [8][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the common behaviors of investors in the stock market, particularly "bottom fishing" and "chasing highs" [1][2] - A real case is presented where an investor bought shares of Jiakai City at a price of 0.49 yuan after a significant drop of 96.5% from its peak of 12.99 yuan [3][4] - The investor aimed to benefit from a potential rebound after the stock was delisted, but the stock price further declined to 0.10 yuan, resulting in a substantial loss [7][8] Group 2 - The article highlights the common mistake of blindly "bottom fishing," referencing the 2008 financial crisis where many investors lost money by buying stocks they believed were undervalued [10][11] - It emphasizes the concept of "value traps," where stocks appear cheap but their fundamentals continue to deteriorate, leading to further declines [14] - The narrative suggests that trying to recover losses in the same failing investment can lead to deeper losses, illustrating the importance of recognizing when to stop investing in a losing position [15][30] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of "recouping thinking," which is a cognitive trap that can lead investors to make poor decisions based on past losses [17][18] - It explains the gambler's fallacy, where individuals mistakenly believe that past independent events will influence future outcomes, leading to irrational investment decisions [19][20] - The article discusses the anchoring effect, where investors fixate on previous high prices as reference points, ignoring the deteriorating fundamentals that may prevent a return to those levels [24] Group 4 - The article advocates for a more rational approach to resource allocation, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities with higher marginal returns rather than being tied to past losses [33][36] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing opportunity costs, where continued investment in a failing asset can prevent capital from being allocated to more promising opportunities [43] - The article concludes that in a rapidly changing environment, the ability to adapt and reallocate resources is more valuable than stubbornly trying to recover losses in a failing investment [68][72]