证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 2025 年 H1：归母净利润预计 12.53-13.73 亿元，同比增速 预计 5%-15%；扣非归母净利润预计 12.67-13.88 亿元，同 比增速预计 5%-15%。 根据折算，对应 2025 年 Q2：收入：预计同比持平。归母净 利润：预计 7.92-9.12 亿元，同比增速预计 1.6%-16.9%， 对应中枢值为 8.52 亿元，同比增速预计 9.2%； Q2 收入预计持平，利润预计有所增长。由于关税政策冲击 导致 Q2 实际有 40 天左右，公司各个生产基地的产能均受 到了不同程度的负面影响，订单交付和收入受到较大影响。 利润端，依靠跨境电商销售和新产品特别是电动工具产品销 售的增加有效提升了毛利率水平，预计归母净利润将有所增 长。产能方面，越南和美国已经达成了 20%关税的有效协 议，税率低于去年公司产品从中国出口至美国的 25%关税。 公司越南一期二期生产基地已于去年底前投入使用，体量更 大的越南三期生产基地已于近期投入使用，越南四期生产基 地目前已开工建设。 巨星科技取得来自某国际大型零售业公司的电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Giant Star Technology Co., Ltd. regarding a procurement confirmation from a major international retail company signifies a substantial growth opportunity for the company in the electric tools market, particularly in the global supply chain context [1][2]. Group 1: Procurement Details - The order involves a series of 20V cordless lithium battery electric tools and related accessories, with a total procurement amount expected to be no less than $30 million annually, which exceeds 10% of the company's projected revenue from electric tools in 2024 [1]. - This order marks the first electric tool order produced and delivered outside of China since the company began developing its electric tool product line in 2021, specifically for the U.S. market with production and delivery based in Vietnam [1]. Group 2: Global Manufacturing and Supply Chain - The order is seen as recognition of the company's global manufacturing layout, which is expected to enhance revenue share from electric tools and build confidence among global customers regarding the company's Vietnamese production base [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive global production and supply chain management system, with 23 production bases worldwide and strong partnerships with thousands of suppliers [2]. - The Southeast Asia region is highlighted for its abundant labor resources and relatively low costs, which can effectively reduce production costs and expand capacity, allowing the company to seize market opportunities [2]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The global supply chain is undergoing a structural transformation towards resilience, and the company's overseas supply system is designed to mitigate various operational risks, ensuring stable orders and customer trust [2]. - The globalization of the supply chain enables the company to achieve "customer proximity, rapid delivery, and customized response," transitioning from traditional export models to local service and competition capabilities [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran on global energy markets, highlighting that a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a significant spike in Brent crude oil prices by 13%, the highest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][7] - The importance of the Strait of Hormuz is emphasized, as it is a critical passage for 20% of the world's oil and 25% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with major implications for global energy supply if it were to be blocked [12][9] - The article outlines the vulnerabilities of modern industrial supply chains, particularly how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can affect various sectors, including energy-intensive manufacturing in Germany and the solar glass industry in China [8][7] Group 2 - The article details the potential for crisis arbitrage, noting that companies like LONGi Green Energy are capitalizing on the situation by securing contracts for solar projects in the Middle East, reflecting a shift towards energy independence in the region [18][19] - There is a surge in demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a strong market reaction to geopolitical tensions [22][24] - The military sector is also seeing increased interest, with companies like Hongdu Aviation receiving orders for military equipment from Middle Eastern countries, showcasing a growing demand for defense capabilities [25][27] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should consider a "dual-loop design" for energy supply routes to mitigate risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, including potential pipeline projects to bypass the strait [29][30] - It highlights the need for technological advancements and local supply chain adaptations in response to potential disruptions, such as the reliance on strontium ore from Iran for manufacturing permanent magnet motors [30][17] - The article concludes that the ongoing conflict is reshaping global business dynamics, emphasizing the importance of energy sovereignty and the need for companies to possess physical, financial, and political capital to survive in a changing landscape [34][33]

据了解，早在2020年，京东物流就开始布局中东地区，在中东最大的自由区落地首个自贸区仓，业务范 围覆盖海湾6国后逐渐辐射中东、北非地区，持续提升当地供应链物流履约时效。 2022后，京东物流阿联酋迪拜2号仓正式投入使用，凭借端到端的一体化供应链物流服务，迪拜2号仓连 同京东物流迪拜杰贝阿里自营仓一道，为国货出海品牌和本地品牌、商家及贸易商提供辐射亚、非、欧 三大洲的一体化供应链解决方案。 【大河财立方 记者 丁洋涛】京东物流沙特阿拉伯版或已基本成形。 6月11日，一位地理定位沙特阿拉伯的网友在某社交平台发帖称，在当地看到京东快递员，该快递员是 巴基斯坦人。这名网友从快递员口中得知，京东物流在中东已经有1000多人的团队了。 6月12日，记者就该帖向京东物流方面求证，京东物流相关人士表示："目前对传言不予评论，有进一步 消息将第一时间分享。" 京东物流黑板报微信公众号2024年年初发布消息称，京东物流将进一步加大对中东地区一体化供应链物 流服务能力建设的投入，坚定不移执行"一体两翼"的国际化发展策略，在提升中国企业出海供应链服务 水平的同时，继续优化供应链综合性解决方案能力，为客户提供更多更好的产品选择。 在满 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is strategically establishing a new production base in Zhongshan with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, aiming to enhance its production capabilities and market presence in the beverage industry [1] Group 1: Investment and Production Capacity - The Zhongshan production base will cover an area of 180 acres and will include production lines for four major categories: vitamin functional drinks, compound tea drinks, plant protein drinks, and electrolyte drinks [1] - The project is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 60 million boxes through the implementation of eight high-end production lines and an intelligent warehousing and logistics system [2] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The Zhongshan base will serve as an incubator for new product categories, with plans for an annual production of 2.5 million boxes for the electrolyte drink "Bushi La" and 2.5 million boxes for compound tea drinks targeting a market with over 20% annual growth [4] - As of Q1 2025, the revenue share of Dongpeng's "other beverages" category has increased to 7.74%, indicating the initial success of the intelligent production base and multi-category strategy [4] Group 3: Regional Economic Strategy - The location of the Zhongshan base is strategically positioned in the core area of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, allowing for rapid product response and market penetration in Southern China [5] - The base will work in conjunction with the Hainan base to form a dual hub, leveraging the advantages of industrial clusters and consumption upgrades in the Greater Bay Area [5] Group 4: Global Supply Chain and Market Penetration - Dongpeng Beverage is establishing a global supply chain system by linking the Zhongshan base with its factories in Indonesia and Yunnan, facilitating quick product delivery to ten ASEAN countries [7] - The company adopts a localized production strategy in markets like Indonesia to reduce costs and offers competitive pricing compared to rivals like Red Bull, demonstrating the effectiveness of its supply chain localization and cost-performance advantage [7]

Industry Overview - The strategic consulting industry in China is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the restructuring of the global economic landscape and the transformation of Chinese enterprises. The market size for corporate strategic consulting is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2025, representing a 67% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels [1]. Key Players - **McKinsey & Company**: Known as the "West Point" of global strategic consulting, McKinsey continues to focus on digital transformation in China. Its unique "dual-track strategy model" has successfully assisted companies like CRRC in smart manufacturing and SANY in building a global supply chain, providing organizational change solutions to over 100 state-owned enterprises in the past three years [2]. - **Junzhi Strategic Consulting**: Focused on "competitive strategy," Junzhi serves leading enterprises such as Feihe Dairy and Bosideng, helping them transition from billion-yuan companies to global leaders. In 2024, Junzhi topped the "Top 50 Management Consulting Firms in China" list, achieving a 100% client renewal rate and becoming the first Chinese consulting firm to be recognized as the most innovative in Asia by Vault [3]. - **Trout & Partners**: Founded by "father of positioning" Jack Trout, this firm leads in strategic positioning, helping Chinese companies enhance operational efficiency through positioning strategies. Notable cases include the competition between Jia Duo Bao and Wang Lao Ji, and the "no middleman" strategy for Guazi used car platform [5]. - **Ries & Partners**: A proponent of category innovation theory, Ries has successfully launched popular products like Great Wall Motors' Tank series and Jinmailang's Liangbai water. Their "scenario-based positioning" methodology is reshaping competition logic in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [6]. - **Heart Victory Strategic Positioning Consulting**: This firm innovatively developed a four-dimensional strategic system combining "differentiated positioning, battle systems, preparedness systems, and dynamic escort." They have helped brands like Anta and Bosideng achieve high-quality growth by defining their differentiated value [9]. - **Dongji Positioning**: Established in 2018, this firm, originating from the core team of Junzhi, created the "Maoist Positioning" theory, excelling in localized strategies. Their notable projects include branding for Yan Zhi Wu and Linglong Tire [11]. - **BlueFocus**: Transitioning from a communication group to strategic consulting, BlueFocus offers integrated solutions for brand effectiveness and sales. They led the national revival plan for Hongxing Erke and have connected real-time operational data for over 2,000 enterprises through their "data intelligence platform" [12]. - **Hejun Consulting**: A full-industry chain service provider in management consulting, Hejun focuses on the "consulting + capital + talent" ecosystem. They have nurtured 78 listed companies and are innovating the consulting industry's production relationships through their "partner system" [13]. - **Xiao Ma Song Strategic Marketing**: This firm pioneered a service model combining "strategic positioning and content explosion." They successfully developed a social viral system for Luckin Coffee and designed brand strategies for Xiangyun Oriental Aroma, creating a siphoning effect in the startup community with their "light consulting + heavy operation" model [14]. Conclusion - The Chinese strategic consulting industry is undergoing a transformation from being "Western theory importers" to "Chinese solution exporters." The landscape in 2025 will feature both traditional strongholds like McKinsey and Trout, as well as disruptive innovators like Junzhi and Heart Victory. Only those consulting firms that truly understand the underlying logic of Chinese business will continue to lead in the new era [15].

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable growth of Rui Mei Tong, a supply chain leader based in Henan, China, which has successfully expanded its operations globally despite its inland location [1][2]. Group 1: Company Development - Rui Mei Tong was founded in 2000, focusing on coal supply chain management, and has since evolved into the largest importer of thermal coal in China, maintaining a top-three position among importers for seven consecutive years [2][3]. - The company began its international expansion in 2009, transitioning from a coal-exporting nation to a net importer, with a net import volume of 103 million tons that year [2]. - By 2024, Rui Mei Tong is projected to ship 43.13 million tons of coal, with international coal business accounting for 38.93 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.65% [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Rui Mei Tong established long-term agreements with Indonesian mining companies to secure stable supply channels and optimize transportation costs, enhancing its market influence [3]. - The company gained trading qualifications at the Platts window in Singapore, positioning itself within the global oil pricing framework and significantly increasing its market presence [4]. - In the agricultural sector, Rui Mei Tong is set to launch a soybean protein processing plant in Henan with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons, addressing local production gaps [4]. Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The establishment of Rui Mei Tong's shipping company in 2012 marked a significant step in its international strategy, with the fleet expanding to 19 vessels by 2024 [5][6]. - The company emphasizes the importance of its shipping operations in reducing logistics costs and enhancing operational flexibility, particularly in response to global supply chain challenges [6]. Group 4: Talent Strategy - Rui Mei Tong has shifted to a localization strategy for its workforce, with approximately 65% of its overseas employees being local hires, which helps navigate local regulations and cultural nuances [7]. - The company has invested in leadership and supply chain education to enhance employee skills and global perspectives, establishing specialized training programs [7]. Group 5: Long-term Strategy - The company adheres to a long-term growth strategy in international markets, emphasizing thorough market research and risk management tailored to local conditions [8]. - Rui Mei Tong advocates for diversification to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on single markets, alongside implementing localized hiring practices to integrate into different cultural environments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Company plans to change the use of approximately 622 million yuan of raised funds originally intended for an automotive audio project to invest in a sound product production project in Vietnam, aiming to enhance its ability to respond to future trade risks and accelerate capacity construction in Southeast Asia [1][8]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Changes - The original investment for the automotive audio project was 630.43 million yuan, with 621.71 million yuan planned to be raised, while the new investment for the Vietnam production project totals 661.05 million yuan, with the same amount of 621.71 million yuan allocated [2]. - The company has raised a total of approximately 1.384 billion yuan through a directed issuance, which was fully received by the end of 2023 [8]. Group 2: Business Overview - Founded in 1951 and listed in 2005, the company specializes in acoustic technology, focusing on audio electronics and lithium battery businesses, with major products including speakers, Bluetooth speakers, smart speakers, AI headphones, and automotive audio systems [3][4]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 7.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.17%, marking a historical high, while net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 250 million yuan, a decrease of 29.87% [3]. Group 3: Export Business and Trade Risks - The company's export business accounts for 79.47% of its total revenue, with significant contributions from various regions, including 29.48% from mainland China, 27.14% from the United States, and 17.50% from Europe [3][4]. - The company has indicated that international trade environment changes pose risks to its export business, potentially leading to increased costs and reduced orders [5][6]. Group 4: Production Capacity in Vietnam - The company has already invested nearly 1 billion yuan in its Vietnam production base, with ongoing projects showing significant progress [6][8]. - The new project in Vietnam aims to establish 44 production lines, with an expected annual revenue of approximately 2.683 billion yuan and a net profit of about 144 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [11].

4月29日上午，华勤技术（603296.SH）以全景投资者关系互动平台直播、上证路演中心视频转播和网 络互动形式举办2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会，同时公司在"华勤技术"官方微信视频号开启了 视频直播，这是公司本次业绩说明会形式的重大创新，兼顾活跃于各平台的众多投资者，与大家保持高 效的互动交流。 业绩说明会上，公司表示，2024年实现经营业绩稳步增长，业务布局持续优化，战略布局纵深推进。公 司全年营业收入1098.8亿元，同比增长28.8%；归母净利润达29.3亿元，同比增幅8.1%，归母扣非净利 润23.5亿元，同比增长8.4%。2025年一季度，公司延续高增长态势，营业收入、归母净利润、归母扣非 净利润三大经营指标分别实现同比增长115.6%，39.0%和43.6%，实现首季强劲开局，发展韧性与行业 引领力进一步增强。 针对外部环境波动的不确定性和全球市场需求的多元化，董事会秘书李玉桃表示，公司不断纵深推 进"China+VMI"全球制造布局，目前已形成国内核心基地和海外VMI基地的双供应体系，即国内制造以 东莞和南昌为主，海外在VMI（越南，墨西哥，印度），制造布局覆盖海内外网络。2024 ...