经济观察报观察家 . 理性，建设性 以下文章来源于经济观察报观察家 ，作者李佩珊 在全球格局重塑与产业转型临界点叠加的时刻，经济学家、杜 克大学社会学系教授高柏认为，通过收入分配改革与福利制度 建设，减轻家庭财务风险，使增长重新变得"可感"，是激发真 实消费与投资意愿的根本路径。 作者： 李佩珊 封图：图虫创意 当"反内卷"成为制度改革的关键词，它不仅意味着治理"低级竞争的无尽螺旋"，更是一种对制度设 计与社会生态的重构尝试。我们看到，从互联网平台推出防疲劳机制、取消骑手超时扣款，到银行 拒绝低于成本的价格战，从债市承销严禁"赔本赚吆喝"到反不正当竞争法规的修订。 经济学家、杜克大学社会学系教授高柏尝试通过"全球化的钟摆运动""霸权更迭""科技革命"三重因 素叠加的宏观学术分析框架的透视，将之回到一个最朴素的问题，那就是，增长与分配、预期与福 利、政策与生活之间，如何重建更有韧性的连接？ 在《把脉：全球巨变与中国经济》一书中，高柏以"三大历史长周期同频共振"这一宏观框架，重构 了对中国经济发展路径的系统性观察，也给出了一个令人警醒的判断， 我们正身处"过去40年的 欠账"集中爆发的阶段 ：长期依赖出口与供给侧 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "anti-involution" is becoming a key term in institutional reform, indicating a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology [2] - The current economic challenges in China are linked to a long-term reliance on export-driven growth, which has suppressed wage and consumption growth [3][4] - The need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction is emphasized as a fundamental path to alleviate household financial risks and stimulate real consumption and investment [4][5] Group 2 - The historical context of China's economic development is analyzed through the lens of three long historical cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions [5][6] - The transition from an export-oriented model to a supply-side driven domestic demand model has created a complex relationship between real estate and macroeconomic growth [16][17] - The current economic environment is characterized by a shift in the relationship between real estate and economic growth, with a decreasing reliance on real estate as a primary driver of economic expansion [16][18] Group 3 - The establishment of a welfare state is deemed essential for supporting consumer spending and creating a robust domestic market, which is crucial for China's position in the international political economy [21][22] - The challenges posed by the rise of artificial intelligence and its impact on labor markets necessitate a reevaluation of income distribution mechanisms [13][14] - The need for balanced regional development is highlighted as a prerequisite for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity [18][19]