记者丨 冉黎黎 刘世锦。资料图 金融怎么为现阶段的高质量发展服务？刘世锦表示，很重要的一点，是需要有强大的资本市场 和强大的货币。 编辑丨 张伟贤 从资本市场来看，刘世锦指出，金融为实体经济服务，简单地说就是选项目，选出有市场、有 效益、有前景、风险可控的好项目，提升资源配置效率。随着我国经济进入高质量发展阶段， 经济增长复杂度是在增加的，金融体系选项目的能力也要相应提升，这就是由传统银行体系到 现代资本市场体系演进的底层逻辑。 由南方财经全媒体集团主办，21世纪经济报道承办，渣打银行战略支持，东方证券等支持 的"南方财经论坛2025年会"12月5日—6日在广州南方财经大厦举办。 在刘世锦看来，中国经济进入创新驱动阶段后，选项目的职能更多地由资本市场来承担。 与 此同时，也会看到全社会的资金更多地流向资本市场。按照法国经济学家皮凯蒂的研究，GDP 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，加快建设金融强 国。这是"金融强国"首次写入五年规划建议。 与社会净资产的比例为1∶5—1∶6。"十五五"和以后更长一个时期，如果GDP能够保持4%—5% 的增长速度，每年将会形成不低于30万亿元的社 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the forum is that China must shift from an investment-driven growth model to a consumption-driven one due to the unsustainability of excessive investment [2][4][5] - The fixed asset investment in China from January to October has shown a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, indicating a potential negative growth for the year, which would be the second occurrence since the reform and opening up [4][5] - The consumption rate in China has decreased from 63% in 2000 to below 55% in 2021, remaining low compared to the global average [5][6] Group 2 - To achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" goal of a 6% annual growth in retail sales of consumer goods, unconventional measures are necessary [7][8] - The first recommendation is to issue over one trillion yuan in universal consumption vouchers to stimulate demand significantly [8][9] - The second recommendation involves transferring 10 trillion yuan of state-owned equity to social security funds to enhance residents' long-term income and consumption expectations [9][10] Group 3 - The third recommendation is to leverage the capital market to create a wealth effect of one hundred trillion yuan, which could boost consumer confidence and spending [10][11] - The capital market's current value is around 100 trillion yuan, with projections suggesting it could reach 200 to 250 trillion yuan by 2030, significantly impacting consumption [10][11] - The need for effective investment in sectors like artificial intelligence is emphasized, with a suggested annual growth rate of over 50% to remain competitive [6][10]

Core Insights - The October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer inflation, with core CPI rising for six consecutive months to 1.2% [1][2] Group 1: October CPI Analysis - The increase in October CPI is primarily driven by holiday consumption and rising gold prices, rather than a comprehensive recovery in the economy [1] - The year-on-year change in CPI reflects a reduction in downward pressure, with food price declines narrowing to -2.9% and energy price declines to -2.4% [1] - Retail sales in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, but there are signs of weakening demand as new social financing growth slows and both short and long-term loans show negative growth [2] Group 2: Long-term Trends - A significant milestone is noted as the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to October (41.22 trillion yuan) surpass fixed asset investment (40.89 trillion yuan), indicating a shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven economic growth [2][4] - Conditions for consumption to become a core driver of economic growth are maturing, supported by rising per capita GDP, increased policy focus on consumption, and structural changes in consumer behavior [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in the Consumer Sector - High-end consumer demand is showing signs of recovery, with notable growth in high-end service consumption, such as entertainment and duty-free shopping [6] - The consumer sector is currently at historical low valuation levels, with the CSI Consumer 50 Index PE ratio at 17.5, indicating a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors [7][10] - The dividend yield for the CSI Consumer 50 Index is currently at 3.79%, higher than that of banks, suggesting limited downside potential [10] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider the consumption sector as a strategic opportunity, particularly in light of the structural improvements indicated by the October CPI data [11] - Suggested investment products include the E Fund Consumption ETF, which tracks the CSI Consumer 50 Index, and the Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF, providing exposure to high-quality consumer companies in the Hong Kong market [11]

在谈到资本市场在其中扮演的角色时，张晓晶表示，资本市场一方面应继续服务于科技自立自强战略。"资本市场具有更好的风险识别与收益共享机制，是 支持科技创新的主战场。"另一方面，他强调扩大消费同样是未来发展的战略基点，资本市场可在两个维度上发挥关键作用。 "第一个维度，是通过发展资本市场提升居民的财产性收入，从而增强消费能力。"张晓晶指出，"第二个维度，是从供给端推动消费提质扩容。当前我国服 务业高质量供给仍面临瓶颈，资本市场若能更好支持该类消费企业发展，将有效推动供给质量提升，从更深层次激发消费潜力。"张晓晶用"顶天立地"生动 概括了资本市场的双重功能："'顶天'是支撑科技高水平自立自强；'立地'则是服务普通百姓的消费需求与民生福祉。"这一表述形象地揭示了资本市场在连 接国家战略与民生需求中的枢纽作用。 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 实习生 张长荣 北京报道 近日，国家金融与发展实验室主任张晓晶在接受21世纪经济报道专访时指出，未来中国经济增长的核心动力将来自"科技驱动"与"消费驱动"的双轮协同。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal, which is crucial for ensuring stable and sustainable economic growth in China [3][4]. Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is suggested that China's average annual economic growth should be around 5% [1]. - The relationship between investment, human capital, and technological progress is highlighted as essential for maintaining this growth rate [1][6]. Fiscal Policy - The plan stresses the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing fiscal sustainability rather than merely achieving fiscal balance [4][6]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, which is 68.7% of GDP, indicating a manageable debt level compared to other countries [5]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" advocates for expanding effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects, to support economic growth [7][8]. - The argument against transitioning from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model is presented, asserting that investment remains crucial for economic expansion [7][8]. Infrastructure Investment - Significant emphasis is placed on infrastructure investment as a means to stimulate consumption and achieve the targeted economic growth rate [10][11]. - The plan suggests that increasing infrastructure investment can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth, essential for meeting the 5% growth target [11][12]. Income Distribution - The plan includes measures to improve income distribution, aiming to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [12]. - Addressing income disparity is identified as a key issue for enhancing consumption in the economy [12].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal for China's economic growth during this period [4][6]. Economic Growth and Investment - Economists suggest that China should maintain an average economic growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, considering the growth rates of capital accumulation, human capital investment, and technological progress [1][10]. - The government aims to expand effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects and key areas, to ensure reasonable growth in investment and improve investment efficiency [10][11]. Fiscal Policy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with total government debt projected at 92.6 trillion yuan, representing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is significantly lower than that of the US and G7 countries [7][8]. - The sustainability of fiscal policy is crucial, with the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and interest rates to ensure the government can meet its debt obligations [8]. Consumption and Demand - The plan mentions consumption 23 times, indicating a strong focus on boosting consumer demand, with suggestions for measures such as subsidies, tax reductions, and social security reforms to stimulate consumption [15][16]. - However, it is noted that increasing consumption rates do not necessarily correlate with improved social welfare, and higher investment rates are linked to higher economic growth [15][17]. Infrastructure Investment - The plan emphasizes the role of infrastructure investment in stimulating economic growth and consumer demand, suggesting that increasing infrastructure investment is essential for achieving the 5% economic growth target [19][20]. - The government is encouraged to raise the deficit ratio to support infrastructure projects, which can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth [9][19]. Income Distribution - The plan proposes improving the income distribution system to increase the share of residents' income in national income distribution, which is deemed necessary for addressing income inequality and enhancing consumption [20].

Group 1 - The likelihood of setting a GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is high, as historical trends show that previous plans typically included clear growth targets, except for the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to external shocks and economic uncertainty [3][6][8] - Historical performance indicates that past GDP targets have often been exceeded, providing confidence that the "15th Five-Year Plan" can also achieve its goals [5][6] - The proposed GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 4.8%, based on calculations to meet the long-term goal of doubling economic output or per capita income by 2035 [11][13] Group 2 - The economic growth target is expected to be set at approximately 4.8%, which aligns with potential growth estimates considering factors like aging population and external economic pressures [13][24] - The policy direction for achieving the growth target will likely be proactive, focusing on increasing government leverage, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing consumer spending, particularly in services [16][20][22] - Specific measures will include maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4%, supporting the real estate market, and promoting service consumption through initiatives like trade-in programs [20][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction to alleviate household financial risks, thereby stimulating real consumption and investment willingness as a fundamental path for economic growth [4][6][24]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" signifies a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology, addressing issues like low-level competition and unfair practices [4][6]. - Current economic challenges in China include low consumer willingness and insufficient investment motivation, necessitating a focus on household financial stability and risk resilience [5][6][12]. - The historical reliance on export-driven growth has suppressed wage and consumption growth, leading to a conservative consumption trend and limited domestic demand [7][11][24]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Development - The analysis framework includes three historical long cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions, which collectively influence economic dynamics [7][8]. - China's reform and opening-up coincided with a global shift from protectionism to market forces, allowing it to integrate into the global production system and achieve rapid growth [8][9]. - The export-oriented growth model has led to wage suppression and inadequate social security, creating structural liabilities that are now evident in the face of external shocks [11][12]. Group 3: The Role of Welfare State - Establishing a welfare state is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the technological revolution, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence on labor distribution [17][24]. - The welfare state aims to reduce the risk burden on residents, encouraging consumption and fostering a robust domestic market [24][25]. - Without a welfare state, sustaining consumer spending becomes difficult, which in turn affects the strength of the domestic market and China's position in international economic governance [25]. Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Growth - The relationship between real estate and economic growth is undergoing a transformation, with diminishing returns on investment in the real estate sector [18][19]. - The current economic environment necessitates a reevaluation of resource allocation, particularly in light of the limited fiscal space and rising local government debt [20][21]. - The shift away from real estate as a primary growth driver could allow for more strategic investments in emerging industries, enhancing overall economic resilience [19][20]. Group 5: Regional Disparities and Open Market - Addressing regional disparities is essential for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity, as balanced regional development supports higher levels of external engagement [21][22]. - The article suggests that fostering investment in underdeveloped regions through new special economic zones could effectively address wealth distribution issues [22][23]. - The dual focus on internal circulation and market openness is vital for navigating the complexities of the current global economic landscape [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that addressing consumption shortfalls is essential for economic growth, with recent data showing mixed signals in price levels and economic activity [2][3] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while the core CPI rose by 0.8%, indicating a sustained increase for three consecutive months [2] - The PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stabilization in price pressures and the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [2][3] Group 2 - Experts argue that consumption-driven economic growth is not feasible, as stimulating consumption does not directly align with consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] - The article suggests that merely stimulating consumption does not increase overall demand but may only shift future consumption forward, potentially exacerbating future demand deficiencies [3][4] - To stabilize the economy, it is crucial to fundamentally alter the relative prices of consumption and savings, thereby changing demand elasticity through social security reforms [4][5] Group 3 - The need for market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market is highlighted, as these changes can enhance investment returns and stimulate economic growth [5] - The article advocates for a governance framework focused on public service, which would create a fair competitive environment for market participants, fostering collective intelligence and economic advancement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].