经济观察报观察家 . 理性，建设性 以下文章来源于经济观察报观察家 ，作者李佩珊 在全球格局重塑与产业转型临界点叠加的时刻，经济学家、杜 克大学社会学系教授高柏认为，通过收入分配改革与福利制度 建设，减轻家庭财务风险，使增长重新变得"可感"，是激发真 实消费与投资意愿的根本路径。 作者： 李佩珊 封图：图虫创意 当"反内卷"成为制度改革的关键词，它不仅意味着治理"低级竞争的无尽螺旋"，更是一种对制度设 计与社会生态的重构尝试。我们看到，从互联网平台推出防疲劳机制、取消骑手超时扣款，到银行 拒绝低于成本的价格战，从债市承销严禁"赔本赚吆喝"到反不正当竞争法规的修订。 经济学家、杜克大学社会学系教授高柏尝试通过"全球化的钟摆运动""霸权更迭""科技革命"三重因 素叠加的宏观学术分析框架的透视，将之回到一个最朴素的问题，那就是，增长与分配、预期与福 利、政策与生活之间，如何重建更有韧性的连接？ 在《把脉：全球巨变与中国经济》一书中，高柏以"三大历史长周期同频共振"这一宏观框架，重构 了对中国经济发展路径的系统性观察，也给出了一个令人警醒的判断， 我们正身处"过去40年的 欠账"集中爆发的阶段 ：长期依赖出口与供给侧 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that addressing consumption shortfalls is essential for economic growth, with recent data showing mixed signals in price levels and economic activity [2][3] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while the core CPI rose by 0.8%, indicating a sustained increase for three consecutive months [2] - The PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stabilization in price pressures and the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [2][3] Group 2 - Experts argue that consumption-driven economic growth is not feasible, as stimulating consumption does not directly align with consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] - The article suggests that merely stimulating consumption does not increase overall demand but may only shift future consumption forward, potentially exacerbating future demand deficiencies [3][4] - To stabilize the economy, it is crucial to fundamentally alter the relative prices of consumption and savings, thereby changing demand elasticity through social security reforms [4][5] Group 3 - The need for market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market is highlighted, as these changes can enhance investment returns and stimulate economic growth [5] - The article advocates for a governance framework focused on public service, which would create a fair competitive environment for market participants, fostering collective intelligence and economic advancement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].

Group 1 - The current economic push requires addressing consumption shortcomings as a crucial factor for growth [1] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0%, with core CPI rising 0.8%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [1] Group 2 - Economic stimulus policies rarely focus on consumption due to the lack of direct correlation between policy and consumer preferences [2] - Stimulating consumption does not effectively change consumer preferences or demand elasticity, leading to potential future demand shortages [2] - The need to shift focus from traditional investment-driven growth to creating a consumption-friendly institutional environment is emphasized [2] Group 3 - Urgent reforms in social security and healthcare are necessary to stabilize public confidence in future income and security [3] - Proposals include tax reforms for social security fees and enhancing personal pension systems to address social security gaps [3] - Market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market are essential for fostering innovation and improving investment returns [3] Group 4 - These reforms will significantly alter economic demand elasticity, making consumption a true driver of economic growth [4] - The focus should shift from utilitarian approaches to a governance model centered on public service, fostering fair competition [4] - Collaborative efforts among market participants will lead to collective wisdom, propelling economic advancement [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consolidating the trend of economic stabilization requires fundamentally changing people's perception of the relative prices of consumption and savings, rather than reverting to traditional investment-driven models or continuing to stimulate consumption [1][3]. - The current economic push requires addressing the shortcomings in consumption, as highlighted by the July CPI data showing a year-on-year growth of 0% and a core CPI increase of 0.8%, indicating marginal economic improvement [2][3]. - Experts argue that consumption-driven economic growth is not feasible, as stimulating consumption does not directly alter consumer preferences and demand elasticity without changing the relative prices of consumption and savings [2][3]. Group 2 - Economic stimulus policies have rarely focused on consumption, as the effectiveness of such policies depends on aligning the preferences of policymakers and consumers to realize the multiplier effect of consumption [3][4]. - The need for social security and healthcare reforms is urgent to stabilize people's future uncertainties, which can be achieved through tax reforms and enhancing the pension system [4]. - Market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market are essential to provide more freedom for market participants, which can lead to improved investment returns and economic stability [4][5]. Group 3 - These reforms are expected to significantly alter the demand elasticity of the economy, making consumption a true driving force for economic growth [5]. - The government should shift towards a governance model focused on public services to create a fair competitive economic order, allowing collective intelligence from market participants to emerge and drive economic progress [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for stimulating domestic consumption in China amidst economic uncertainties, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between consumption and investment to achieve sustainable growth [4][19]. Economic Growth Analysis - In the first half of 2023, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, investment at 16.8%, and exports at 31.2% [4]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth increased slightly in the second quarter to 52.3%, while investment and export contributions were 24.7% and 23%, respectively [4]. Investment vs. Consumption - The relationship between investment and consumption is framed as a choice between immediate consumption versus future consumption, highlighting the importance of investment for long-term economic growth [10][12]. - The article argues against the notion of a purely "consumption-driven" growth model, stating that economic growth is fundamentally driven by capital, labor, and technology rather than consumption alone [9][17]. Infrastructure Investment - The article advocates for increased infrastructure investment as a means to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the potential for infrastructure investment in China is far from saturated [6][22]. - It is noted that infrastructure investment can have immediate positive effects on economic growth, with a multiplier effect that generates additional income and consumption [22][24]. Consumption Patterns - The article highlights the differences in consumption patterns between China and the U.S., noting that while China's consumption rate is lower, the actual consumption levels in certain sectors may not be significantly different [14][15]. - It emphasizes that the structure of consumption in China is heavily weighted towards goods rather than services, which affects the overall consumption rate [15][16]. Income Distribution and Consumption - The article points out the issue of income inequality in China, with a high Gini coefficient indicating significant income disparity, which can impact overall consumption levels [18]. - It suggests that addressing income distribution issues could enhance marginal propensity to consume, thereby stimulating economic growth [18][20]. Policy Recommendations - The article recommends various measures to boost consumption, including issuing consumption vouchers, reducing personal income tax, and reforming the social security system [20][21]. - It also discusses the importance of accurately measuring disposable income in relation to GDP, noting discrepancies in statistical methods that could misrepresent the true economic situation [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that consumer spending has not become a driving factor in the current economic landscape [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions indicate that consumer spending is not significantly influencing growth [1] - The focus may need to shift towards other economic indicators to assess the overall health of the economy [1]

Core Insights - Emerging markets are seen as key engines for global economic growth, with a focus on how they can maintain stability amid geopolitical tensions and changing trade relationships [1][3] - The shift from export-driven to consumption-driven economic models in China is a significant topic of discussion, emphasizing the need for domestic consumption and investment [3][4] Group 1: Economic Trends and Predictions - China's GDP growth is expected to exceed 5% in the second half of the year, driven by improving macroeconomic indicators, particularly in consumption [4] - The transition to a consumption-driven economy will require time and effort, with a growing emphasis on boosting consumer confidence [4][6] - Structural issues such as real estate, financial risks, and local fiscal pressures need to be addressed for sustainable economic recovery [5] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Focus - Domestic consumption is identified as a primary challenge for China's economy, with a significant gap of about 20 percentage points compared to the international average [6][7] - The focus should be on enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups and promoting service-oriented consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security [7][8] - Recent data shows a notable increase in retail sales, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in May, indicating positive effects from government stimulus measures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry is experiencing unprecedented opportunities and transformations as it shifts from a production-driven model to a consumption-driven one, with brand building in the new communication ecosystem being crucial [1][2] Group 1: Demand Aspects - Consumer demand is characterized by diversity, speed, quality, and cost-effectiveness, with a focus on emotional and rational decision-making [1] - The tourism consumption power is evolving towards more refined and personalized experiences, driven by consumers' increasing quality expectations and price sensitivity [1] Group 2: Supply Aspects - New technologies such as AI models and low-altitude economy are reshaping consumption patterns and injecting new momentum into the industry [2] - The transition to a consumption-driven model is redefining the future landscape of the tourism industry, enhancing operational efficiency and creating new customized and experiential tourism scenarios [2] Group 3: Brand Building - Brand building in the new communication ecosystem is essential for driving innovative consumption power, serving as the soul of the transformation [2] - The collaboration of various sectors, including academia and media, is aimed at deepening industry research and promoting resource integration to support brand storytelling and value dissemination [2]

Group 1 - Chinese customers have a significantly higher demand for quality experiences compared to the global average, with 92% choosing brands based on expected experiences, far exceeding the global level of 70% [1] - 87% of Chinese customers are willing to pay a premium for better experiences, nearly double the global average of 46%, indicating that enhancing experience quality is crucial for attracting customers and translating into commercial value [1] - Emotional dependence is a core factor for successful customer experiences, with 73% of customers whose experiences meet or exceed expectations developing emotional ties to brands, compared to only 5% for those with unmet expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The primary driving force for customer experience in China is "pleasure," which is more significant than "certainty" and "fairness," reflecting the emotional value that Chinese customers place on their experiences [2] - Key factors enhancing "pleasure" include clear communication (57%), experiences aligning with brand promises (56%), and delivery quality (58%), while "fairness" relies on clear communication (61%) and promise fulfillment (58%) [2] - There is room for improvement in areas such as "control," "certainty," and personalization, as well as ESG aspects in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the mobile phone (62%) and banking (61%) sectors in China excel in establishing emotional ties compared to global averages, while insurance (54%) and mobile operators (56%) lag behind [3] - The recommendation willingness (NPS) across various industries in China is higher than the global average, with mobile phones (53%) and banking (58%) showing particularly strong performance [3] - Chinese customers are more reliant on word-of-mouth recommendations for first-time purchase decisions (37% impact) compared to the global average of 23%, and customers acquired through recommendations are more likely to make subsequent recommendations [3] Group 4 - Brands should prioritize optimizing basic experiences such as communication and delivery quality while focusing on differentiated forces like respect and a sense of belonging [4] - Strengthening the emotional value related to "pleasure" and enhancing consistency across all channels are key to building competitive advantages in the Chinese market [4] - Despite the current low trust in AI applications, reasonable optimization could still become a potential breakthrough for experience upgrades [4] Group 5 - Overall, the Chinese customer experience market is characterized by "high expectations, emotional emphasis, and differentiation-driven" features, with brands needing to base their strategies on experience quality and emotional connections to continuously meet dynamic demands [5]