11月27日，"2025搜狐财经年度论坛"在北京举办。 在论坛中，经济学家、万博新经济研究院院长滕泰带来了题为"消费繁荣与中国未来"的主题分享。 滕泰指出，中国长期依赖的、已经严重过剩的投资驱动增长模式不可持续，我们必须要转向以消费为主导的发展道路。其实投资过剩现象早在2018年以前就 已经显现，这导致了大量低效、无效的投资，从而让消费率长期偏低。 滕泰认为，要实现"十五五"规划的"社会消费品零售总额年均增速达到6%"目标，必须采取三项非常规的手段。 第一要发放万亿规模通用消费券来直接刺激需求；其次要划转10万亿国有股权充实社保，来提高居民长期收入和消费预期；最后要通过发展资本市场创造百 万亿财富效应，提振居民消费信心。 演讲最后，滕泰强调，提振消费不仅是拉动经济增长的必要手段，更是所有经济活动的最终目的。 以下为演讲全文： 在谈消费话题前，先分享一下数据，1-10月份中国全社会固定资产投资总额同比负增长1.7%，这个数据后面如果不做特别调整，大概率今年的投资是负增长 1%左右。如果今年的投资出现了负增长，那将是中国改革开放以来第二次出现负增长，上一次是1989年。有人说，投资负增长怎么办？一定要扩大投资。 ...

近期10月CPI数据引发市场广泛关注——同比由降转涨至0.2%，核心CPI涨幅连续6个月扩大至1.2%，这 是否意味着消费领域的"通胀拐点"已现？结合社零、固定资产投资等数据，以及消费板块的估值与基本 面变化，我们不妨从"数据解读-趋势判断-投资机会"三个维度，拆解当前消费板块的配置价值。 一、10月CPI超预期：短期受益于假日消费，但内需仍存在承压信号 10月CPI的积极变化，本质是"假日消费+金饰上涨刺激"双重因素的阶段性释放，而非全面复苏的信 号，这一点需要先厘清。 CPI上涨0.2%的核心驱动力有三：一是双节消费拉动，国庆与中秋叠加直接推升服务消费——如宾馆住 宿、机票等的价格；二是黄金饰品价格上涨，对CPI环比的拉动作用较强。 从同比看，CPI由降转涨的另一关键是"下拉因素减弱"——食品价格降幅收窄至-2.9%，能源价格降幅收 窄至-2.4%。 表: 10月CPI的同比与环比表现 | 项目 | 同比(%)-2025-10 | 同比(%)-2025-09 | | --- | --- | --- | | CP I | 0. 2 | -0. 3 | | 食品 | -2.9 | -4.4 | | 鲜来 | ...

在谈到资本市场在其中扮演的角色时，张晓晶表示，资本市场一方面应继续服务于科技自立自强战略。"资本市场具有更好的风险识别与收益共享机制，是 支持科技创新的主战场。"另一方面，他强调扩大消费同样是未来发展的战略基点，资本市场可在两个维度上发挥关键作用。 "第一个维度，是通过发展资本市场提升居民的财产性收入，从而增强消费能力。"张晓晶指出，"第二个维度，是从供给端推动消费提质扩容。当前我国服 务业高质量供给仍面临瓶颈，资本市场若能更好支持该类消费企业发展，将有效推动供给质量提升，从更深层次激发消费潜力。"张晓晶用"顶天立地"生动 概括了资本市场的双重功能："'顶天'是支撑科技高水平自立自强；'立地'则是服务普通百姓的消费需求与民生福祉。"这一表述形象地揭示了资本市场在连 接国家战略与民生需求中的枢纽作用。 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 实习生 张长荣 北京报道 近日，国家金融与发展实验室主任张晓晶在接受21世纪经济报道专访时指出，未来中国经济增长的核心动力将来自"科技驱动"与"消费驱动"的双轮协同。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal, which is crucial for ensuring stable and sustainable economic growth in China [3][4]. Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is suggested that China's average annual economic growth should be around 5% [1]. - The relationship between investment, human capital, and technological progress is highlighted as essential for maintaining this growth rate [1][6]. Fiscal Policy - The plan stresses the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing fiscal sustainability rather than merely achieving fiscal balance [4][6]. - By the end of 2024, the total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, which is 68.7% of GDP, indicating a manageable debt level compared to other countries [5]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" advocates for expanding effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects, to support economic growth [7][8]. - The argument against transitioning from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model is presented, asserting that investment remains crucial for economic expansion [7][8]. Infrastructure Investment - Significant emphasis is placed on infrastructure investment as a means to stimulate consumption and achieve the targeted economic growth rate [10][11]. - The plan suggests that increasing infrastructure investment can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth, essential for meeting the 5% growth target [11][12]. Income Distribution - The plan includes measures to improve income distribution, aiming to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [12]. - Addressing income disparity is identified as a key issue for enhancing consumption in the economy [12].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal for China's economic growth during this period [4][6]. Economic Growth and Investment - Economists suggest that China should maintain an average economic growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, considering the growth rates of capital accumulation, human capital investment, and technological progress [1][10]. - The government aims to expand effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects and key areas, to ensure reasonable growth in investment and improve investment efficiency [10][11]. Fiscal Policy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with total government debt projected at 92.6 trillion yuan, representing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is significantly lower than that of the US and G7 countries [7][8]. - The sustainability of fiscal policy is crucial, with the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and interest rates to ensure the government can meet its debt obligations [8]. Consumption and Demand - The plan mentions consumption 23 times, indicating a strong focus on boosting consumer demand, with suggestions for measures such as subsidies, tax reductions, and social security reforms to stimulate consumption [15][16]. - However, it is noted that increasing consumption rates do not necessarily correlate with improved social welfare, and higher investment rates are linked to higher economic growth [15][17]. Infrastructure Investment - The plan emphasizes the role of infrastructure investment in stimulating economic growth and consumer demand, suggesting that increasing infrastructure investment is essential for achieving the 5% economic growth target [19][20]. - The government is encouraged to raise the deficit ratio to support infrastructure projects, which can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth [9][19]. Income Distribution - The plan proposes improving the income distribution system to increase the share of residents' income in national income distribution, which is deemed necessary for addressing income inequality and enhancing consumption [20].

Group 1 - The likelihood of setting a GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is high, as historical trends show that previous plans typically included clear growth targets, except for the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to external shocks and economic uncertainty [3][6][8] - Historical performance indicates that past GDP targets have often been exceeded, providing confidence that the "15th Five-Year Plan" can also achieve its goals [5][6] - The proposed GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 4.8%, based on calculations to meet the long-term goal of doubling economic output or per capita income by 2035 [11][13] Group 2 - The economic growth target is expected to be set at approximately 4.8%, which aligns with potential growth estimates considering factors like aging population and external economic pressures [13][24] - The policy direction for achieving the growth target will likely be proactive, focusing on increasing government leverage, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing consumer spending, particularly in services [16][20][22] - Specific measures will include maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4%, supporting the real estate market, and promoting service consumption through initiatives like trade-in programs [20][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction to alleviate household financial risks, thereby stimulating real consumption and investment willingness as a fundamental path for economic growth [4][6][24]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" signifies a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology, addressing issues like low-level competition and unfair practices [4][6]. - Current economic challenges in China include low consumer willingness and insufficient investment motivation, necessitating a focus on household financial stability and risk resilience [5][6][12]. - The historical reliance on export-driven growth has suppressed wage and consumption growth, leading to a conservative consumption trend and limited domestic demand [7][11][24]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Development - The analysis framework includes three historical long cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions, which collectively influence economic dynamics [7][8]. - China's reform and opening-up coincided with a global shift from protectionism to market forces, allowing it to integrate into the global production system and achieve rapid growth [8][9]. - The export-oriented growth model has led to wage suppression and inadequate social security, creating structural liabilities that are now evident in the face of external shocks [11][12]. Group 3: The Role of Welfare State - Establishing a welfare state is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the technological revolution, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence on labor distribution [17][24]. - The welfare state aims to reduce the risk burden on residents, encouraging consumption and fostering a robust domestic market [24][25]. - Without a welfare state, sustaining consumer spending becomes difficult, which in turn affects the strength of the domestic market and China's position in international economic governance [25]. Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Growth - The relationship between real estate and economic growth is undergoing a transformation, with diminishing returns on investment in the real estate sector [18][19]. - The current economic environment necessitates a reevaluation of resource allocation, particularly in light of the limited fiscal space and rising local government debt [20][21]. - The shift away from real estate as a primary growth driver could allow for more strategic investments in emerging industries, enhancing overall economic resilience [19][20]. Group 5: Regional Disparities and Open Market - Addressing regional disparities is essential for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity, as balanced regional development supports higher levels of external engagement [21][22]. - The article suggests that fostering investment in underdeveloped regions through new special economic zones could effectively address wealth distribution issues [22][23]. - The dual focus on internal circulation and market openness is vital for navigating the complexities of the current global economic landscape [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that addressing consumption shortfalls is essential for economic growth, with recent data showing mixed signals in price levels and economic activity [2][3] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while the core CPI rose by 0.8%, indicating a sustained increase for three consecutive months [2] - The PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stabilization in price pressures and the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [2][3] Group 2 - Experts argue that consumption-driven economic growth is not feasible, as stimulating consumption does not directly align with consumer preferences and behaviors [3][4] - The article suggests that merely stimulating consumption does not increase overall demand but may only shift future consumption forward, potentially exacerbating future demand deficiencies [3][4] - To stabilize the economy, it is crucial to fundamentally alter the relative prices of consumption and savings, thereby changing demand elasticity through social security reforms [4][5] Group 3 - The need for market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market is highlighted, as these changes can enhance investment returns and stimulate economic growth [5] - The article advocates for a governance framework focused on public service, which would create a fair competitive environment for market participants, fostering collective intelligence and economic advancement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].

Group 1 - The current economic push requires addressing consumption shortcomings as a crucial factor for growth [1] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0%, with core CPI rising 0.8%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [1] Group 2 - Economic stimulus policies rarely focus on consumption due to the lack of direct correlation between policy and consumer preferences [2] - Stimulating consumption does not effectively change consumer preferences or demand elasticity, leading to potential future demand shortages [2] - The need to shift focus from traditional investment-driven growth to creating a consumption-friendly institutional environment is emphasized [2] Group 3 - Urgent reforms in social security and healthcare are necessary to stabilize public confidence in future income and security [3] - Proposals include tax reforms for social security fees and enhancing personal pension systems to address social security gaps [3] - Market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market are essential for fostering innovation and improving investment returns [3] Group 4 - These reforms will significantly alter economic demand elasticity, making consumption a true driver of economic growth [4] - The focus should shift from utilitarian approaches to a governance model centered on public service, fostering fair competition [4] - Collaborative efforts among market participants will lead to collective wisdom, propelling economic advancement [4]