国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 2026 年投资策略报告 稳经济稳预期 股债双震荡 金融 2025 年 11 月 23 日 主要结论 1、2025 年，国内经济恢复速度逐渐减慢，房地产拖累幅度有所减小。国内主要 经济消费方面，居民就业不平衡-规模性返乡-居民收入预期降低-消费增速低迷不振 循环。投资方面，房地产持续下滑-地方财政收入减少-项目投资与基础建设缺乏力 度-经济恢复缓慢，经济向新质生产力提升，但是新质生产力产生的就业机构与传统 行业产生的就业结构并不一致，经济恢复发展的同时，传统行业带来的就业冲击无 法通过新质生产力经济发展来消耗。2024 年 9 月中国政策逻辑发生转变，开始大力 度刺激经济的货币财政政策，货币方面，大力度降息、下调存量房贷利率等，财政 政策提出化解地方政府隐性债务。2025 年中国经济政策方向转向新质生产力，通过 经济转型升级的方式，进一步提升经济质量。外部方面，特朗普上台之后对打关税 战，对全球贸易形成阻碍，即便中美暂时缓和，特朗普的关税整体上影响全球贸易。 国际局部国家地缘政治或无法完成和平解决。2026 年国内经济政策将会更加注重内 循环，居民、私人企业资产负债表修复 ...

11月17日，中国餐饮龙头百胜中国（YUMC.US/9987.HK）在深圳举办了2025年投资者日活动，在当前 复杂环境下向市场传递了积极的长期增长信号。 活动上，百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容宣布将未来战略升级至"RGM 3.0"，继续聚焦韧性（Resilience）、 增长（Growth）、护城河（Moat）三大核心维度，秉持"创新＋提效"的双轮驱动策略，通过"前端分 层、后端聚合"的发展理念强化门店、区域与品牌间的协同效应，进一步夯实公司的综合竞争力。 自2021年RGM战略启动以来，百胜中国在行业周期波动中依旧实现了高质量稳健发展。无论是门店扩 张提速的同时维持同店销售正增长，还是在促销高度内卷的环境下依旧推动利润率稳步提升，均充分验 证了RGM战略的经营成效。 随着公司迈入3.0阶段，战略节奏也从"稳增长"推进至"快增长+提效益"，管理层对未来三年在门店扩 张、销售增长和盈利提升方面均展现出强烈信心和进取姿态。 根据公司披露的2026年至2028年财务目标，系统销售额预计实现中至高单位数复合增长、经营利润实现 高单位数复合增长；2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家，到2030年门店总数力争突破3万家。 ...

前几天和多年未见的大学室友小张吃饭，聊到各自的生活状况。他告诉我："这两年真的很拮据，工资几乎原地踏步，孩子上学、父母看病、房贷车贷，每 个月过得紧巴巴的。前段时间冰箱坏了，明明想换个新的，但看了看账户余额，只能找维修工修修凑合着用。"小张的处境让我感同身受，身边越来越多的 朋友都在不约而同地"勒紧裤腰带"。 这种现象并非个例。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2025年上半年社会消费品零售总额同比增长仅为3.2%，比2024年同期下降了1.5个百分点。尤其值得注意 的是，占消费大头的汽车、家电、住房等大宗消费品销售增速明显放缓。汽车消费同比增长1.8%，比去年同期下降3.7个百分点；家电消费同比下降2.5%， 比去年同期扩大了1.3个百分点。 消费研究机构发布的《2025年居民消费意愿调查报告》显示，65%的受访者表示未来半年内会减少非必要消费支出，83%的人表示会推迟大件商品的购买计 划。这些数据直观地反映出当前居民消费意愿的低迷状态。 那么，是什么原因导致老百姓的消费动力不足？通过深入分析，我们发现主要有以下几个因素： 收入增长乏力与就业压力加大。据人力资源和社会保障部门的统计，2025年上半年全国城镇居民人均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected global impact of U.S. tariffs, which were initially aimed at China but ended up affecting many countries, leading to a compromise with China while other nations faced higher tariffs [2][3]. Economic Impact - China's economic dependence on the U.S. has significantly decreased since 2016, with a shift towards the Belt and Road Initiative, making U.S. tariffs less impactful [6]. - The domestic consumption market in China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has become a major economic driver, posing a risk to the U.S. if it continues its hardline stance [6]. Industrial Development - China has upgraded its industrial capabilities, exporting high-tech products that the U.S. cannot easily replace, which has led to self-inflicted damage from U.S. tariffs [8]. - China holds a dominant position in critical sectors like rare earths and renewable energy, increasing U.S. reliance on Chinese exports [8]. Military Strength - China's military capabilities are reportedly on par with or surpassing those of the U.S., particularly in advanced military technologies [11]. - The presence of U.S. military forces in allied countries deters those nations from taking a strong stance against the U.S., while China’s military strength allows it to confront the U.S. more confidently [9][10].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of "investment in people" as a strategic approach to drive economic transformation and enhance human capital, which is crucial for sustainable development in China [1][2][4] - "Investment in people" is seen as a key factor in shifting the global industrial competition from capital-intensive to talent-intensive, highlighting the need for a comprehensive human resource development system [1][2] - The strategy includes reforming education systems to focus on innovation, integrating higher education with research, and aligning vocational education with industry needs to cultivate high-quality talent [2][3] Group 2 - "Investment in people" is also critical for stimulating consumer demand and activating the internal market, as it leads to the creation of new consumption scenarios and products [2][3] - To enhance residents' consumption capacity, a systematic policy approach is required, focusing on employment promotion, income increase, and stabilizing expectations [3] - The need for a long-term mechanism to ensure stable and sustainable investment in public services and social welfare is highlighted, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure towards basic needs [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shift in China's economic focus away from reliance on the U.S. market, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs' analysis of trade dynamics and structural changes in China's economy [2][4][11]. Economic Transition - Goldman Sachs reports that China is systematically reducing its exposure to the U.S. and is instead focusing on broader global markets and domestic innovation [4][6]. - By 2025, China's export growth is expected to slow, but government stimulus and supply chain optimization will help mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [4][6]. Export Structure and Trade Partners - China's export structure is evolving, with a higher proportion of high-end manufacturing exports, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, which are in high global demand [7][14]. - The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries projected to rise from 32% in 2020 to 47% by 2025 [9][14]. Impact of Decoupling - The decoupling between the U.S. and China is seen as a mutual trend, with both countries pushing for reduced interdependence [11][12]. - Despite U.S. efforts to bring back supply chains, Goldman Sachs indicates that this will be challenging due to China's critical role in global supply chains [11][12]. Future Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for China to 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, primarily due to tariff risks, but emphasizes the acceleration of structural transformation towards domestic demand and innovation [12][16]. - The report suggests that while geopolitical tensions and tariffs pose uncertainties, China's strong policy execution can help offset potential economic downturns [16]. Investment Opportunities - The article highlights that Chinese companies are increasingly becoming brand exporters rather than just manufacturers, with significant growth in technology exports, particularly in AI software and consumer electronics [14][16]. - The RCEP agreement has strengthened China's trade network, making ASEAN its largest trading partner, surpassing both the EU and the U.S. [14][16].

Core Insights - The A-share market saw collective gains on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.93%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,557.74 billion yuan [2][8] - Key sectors leading the market included power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, while banks, comprehensive sectors, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind [2][8] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.16%, the S&P 500 unchanged, and the Nasdaq up by 0.55% [2][8] Industry Analysis Capital Market Reform and Long-term Industry Outlook - The ongoing capital market reforms are expected to enhance the long-term fundamentals of the industry. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on domestic demand and consumption-driven growth [10][16] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is implementing measures to protect small investors and optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, which is anticipated to benefit the investment banking sector [16][18] - The IPO market is showing signs of recovery, with 78 IPOs raising 77.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13% and 61%, respectively [17][18] Pharmaceutical Industry Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of public health and innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, aiming to improve the healthcare system and promote the development of innovative drugs and medical devices [20][21] - Key initiatives include enhancing the multi-tiered medical insurance system, optimizing drug procurement policies, and promoting the integration of traditional Chinese medicine with modern healthcare practices [21][22] Consumer Goods Sector Performance - The consumer goods sector, particularly in the food industry, is experiencing growth, with companies like Lihai Foods reporting a 14.82% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025 [27][28] - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings in high-end segments, with significant growth in cream and sauce products, indicating a positive response to its high-end strategy [28][29] Cosmetics Industry Challenges - The cosmetics sector is facing short-term revenue and profit pressures due to product iterations and reduced online traffic, with a reported revenue decline of 7.34% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [31][32] - Despite these challenges, there is potential for recovery as new products are launched, and the company is focusing on optimizing its product mix to enhance profitability [31][33]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a low opening but rose to surpass the 4000-point mark on the Shanghai Composite Index, which was last seen on August 18, 2015, marking a gap of 3723 days [1][4] - The index closed at 3988.22 points after a period of fluctuations [1] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was optimistic, with the 4000-point level seen as a significant psychological barrier that could attract more retail investment [4] - However, there were cautious voices suggesting that after reaching 4000 points, short-term policy adjustments might occur to prevent overheating in the market [4] Fund Managers' Perspectives - Fund managers expressed a consensus that the overall bullish market framework would continue, despite potential short-term corrections due to profit-taking and high valuations in some sectors [5][10] - Key sectors to watch include leading companies in anti-involution industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and chemicals, as well as consumer sectors like meat and dairy products [5] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a transition from rapid growth to structural adjustments, with CPI remaining below 1% and PPI showing negative growth in several months [7] - The focus is on domestic circulation, with high-end manufacturing emerging as a structural highlight amid ongoing global trade tensions [7] Investment Strategy - The equity market is viewed as the optimal allocation direction, with a focus on technology growth sectors and a selective approach to undervalued companies [6][8] - The investment strategy emphasizes identifying companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations, aiming for stable operations and enhanced returns [5][8] Future Market Trends - The market is expected to experience continued volatility after briefly surpassing the 4000-point mark, with divergent views on future trends [15] - Long-term optimism is supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to optimize China's economic transformation and enhance market dynamics [15]

Guiding Principles & Development Themes - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (Fifteenth Five-Year Plan) emphasizes "people-centered" development, prioritizing the people [1] - The plan highlights the combination of an effective market and an active government [1] - The plan shifts focus to "economic construction as the center," re-emphasizing its fundamental role [2] - The plan upgrades domestic demand from a strategic base to a development goal, aiming to build a strong domestic market [2] Economic & Technological Focus - "New productive forces" are a core keyword, emphasizing technological innovation to lead economic transformation [2] - The plan aims for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through "unconventional measures" [2] - The plan includes forward-looking layouts for future industries such as quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, 6G mobile communication, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion energy [2] - The plan upgrades the artificial intelligence strategy to "Artificial Intelligence + Action" [2] Policy & Systemic Changes - The plan upgrades the protection of the private economy by proposing to "implement the Private Economy Promotion Law" [2] - The plan shifts from "expanding opening-up" to "actively expanding independent opening-up," emphasizing proactive expansion and enhanced autonomy under external pressure [3] - The plan emphasizes "promoting the internationalization of the RMB" and "building an independent and controllable RMB cross-border payment system" [3] - The plan clarifies "appropriately strengthening the central government's responsibilities and increasing the proportion of central government fiscal expenditure" to address local debt risks and strengthen central coordination [4] Social & Security Aspects - In education, the plan aims to build a high-quality education system and explore extending compulsory education and expanding free education [5] - In employment, the plan aims for higher-quality and fuller employment, with residents' income growth "synchronized" with economic growth [5] - The plan aims to improve and implement national unified basic pension insurance, gradually increasing basic pension for urban and rural residents [6] - The plan advocates for positive views on marriage and childbirth, effectively reducing the costs of raising and educating children [6] - The plan adds "more consolidated national security barriers" as an independent goal, emphasizing strengthening security capabilities in emerging fields such as network, data, AI, biology, and ecology [6]

Core Points - The trade war between the US and China, initiated in 2018, has evolved into a complex web affecting global supply chains, consumer behavior, and political rhetoric, with significant implications for both economies [1][2][3] - By 2025, the US has implemented aggressive tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a dramatic shift in sourcing, with many products now labeled as "Made in Vietnam," "Made in India," or "Made in Mexico," despite their components often originating from China [11][12][16] - The economic impact of these tariffs has resulted in increased costs for American consumers, with estimates suggesting an additional burden of $1,300 per household due to higher prices on imported goods [17][20] Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The trade war began with tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, escalating to a maximum tariff rate of 145% on various goods by 2025 [2][3] - The tariffs have led to a significant decline in Chinese exports to the US, with a reported 90% drop, while countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and India have seen a surge in exports to the US [11][12] - The hidden costs of tariffs are reflected in rising consumer prices, with the average washing machine price increasing from $300 to $350, partly due to tariffs [17] Consumer Behavior and Perception - Despite the increased costs, many American consumers remain unaware of the true origins of the products they purchase, often believing they are supporting national policies by avoiding "Chinese goods" [7][19] - Surveys indicate a split in public opinion regarding the trade war, with a significant portion of the population believing that China benefits more from trade than the US [37][39] Supply Chain Dynamics - The shift in sourcing has resulted in longer and more fragile supply chains, as new suppliers often rely on Chinese components, undermining the intended goal of "decoupling" from China [16][22] - The reliance on Chinese intermediate goods remains high, with countries like Vietnam importing over 70% of their electronic components from China [12][22] Political and Global Implications - The trade war has broader implications beyond economics, representing a struggle for global dominance and the clash of development models between the US and China [40][41] - The political landscape is divided, with differing views on trade fairness and the impact of tariffs on various sectors, complicating the formulation of cohesive trade policies [39][43] Conclusion - The ongoing trade war illustrates that there are no clear winners, only varying degrees of cost distribution among consumers, businesses, and countries involved, highlighting the challenges of navigating a highly interconnected global economy [44][45]