2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构 升级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新 一年核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》栏目，聚集百位首席，拆解政策取向、解析 产业机遇、预判市场走势。 本文作者系京东集团首席经济学家沈建光 2026年的核心主题："内需攻坚" 尽管有上述三大支撑，对中国经济而言，2026年将被定义为"内需攻坚之年"。笔者认为，当前中国经济 最大的挑战在于国内需求疲软、内生动力不足。与"十四五"相比，"十五五"规划发生了六大关键调整， 其中更加强调消费、内循环是最显著的变化。 消费的挑战与机遇：2026年消费面临高基数效应、居民收入增长承压（2025年居民可支配收入增速降至 5.0%）以及房地产财富缩水（房价较高点降幅超过30%）的三重制约。预计社会消费品零售总额增速可 能低于2025年，放缓至3%左右。然而，服务消费有望成为亮点。中国商品消费占GDP比重已与美国相 当，但服务消费占比仅18%，远低于美国的46%，这正是巨大的潜力所在。通过释放服务业潜力、去除 不合理限 ...

希勒2013年的回答很反常识。 他说最大的风险是中国没有经历过衰退、萧条和危机。他不是在嘲笑中国，而是在提醒"缺课"。 更狠的是后半句：一旦出现危机，就很难有正确判断和应对。 而这句话传回国内，很多网友不买账。 【阅读须知】：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解 析，旨在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改 正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解。） 很多人问，中国经济最大的风险是什么？我反而想先问一句，我们最怕的，到底是风险本身，还是对风 险的误判？ 一个中国人问诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒，中国经济最大风险是什么？ 理由也很中国。5000年啥没见过，王朝更替、兵荒马乱、灾荒动荡，哪个不是危机。 希勒讲的是经济周期里的危机；我们反驳的，是政治秩序里的危机。听上去都叫危机，本质却不是一回 事。 中国历史上确实反复经历衰退、萧条甚至崩盘。 但那多是政治结构、生产资料分配与治理崩坏带来的系统性灾难。它不是现代意义上"市场经济—信用 扩张—资产泡沫—需求坍塌—金融连锁"的那套。 甚至可以说，我们过去几千年最核心的恐 ...

"总统先生对中国的态度令人困惑，他的政策似乎在为北京效力。"一位美国议员在近期闭门听证会上发 出质疑。与此同时，欧洲领导人们也在为特朗普对八国加征关税而焦头烂额。 特朗普第二任期已过一年，其对华政策呈现出令人眼花缭乱的矛盾态势：今年初美国还将对华关税提高 至125%，却同时给予90天暂停期；特朗普本人提出"G2"想法，却又任命强硬反华人物担任要职。 特朗普 这种摇摆不定的对华政策，反而让中国抓住机会，展开了一场堪称典范的国际战略阳谋。 政策摇摆，特朗普的对华战略显露矛盾 特朗普政府上任一年来，对华政策轨迹充满不确定性。从就职首日宣布对所有中国商品加征10%的关税 （远低于竞选时威胁的60%），到后来将关税一度提升至125%，再到给予90天关税暂停期，特朗普政 府的对华经贸政策展现出极大的波动性。 特朗普在四月访华前必然调整对华战略，采取缓和政策。而临近六月中期选举时，为拉拢选票，他又需 要展现强硬的形象。这种短期利益导向的外交哲学，使得对华政策缺乏长期一致性。 更令人惊讶的是，美国政府对华言论也明显软化。特朗普提出"G2"概念，美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞思 甚至声称"美国和中国的关系从来没有这么好过"。2025 ...

Group 1 - APEC's first senior officials' meeting in Guangzhou highlighted the city's growing foreign investment landscape, with approximately 60,000 foreign enterprises established, including 368 Fortune 500 companies [1] - By 2025, Guangzhou is projected to utilize $25.19 billion in foreign investment, marking a 9.1% year-on-year increase, with over 10,000 new foreign enterprises established [1] - APEC economies have invested in over 50,000 enterprises in Guangzhou, contributing nearly $120 billion, which accounts for over 80% of the city's actual foreign investment [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou is leveraging systematic institutional innovation to provide high-quality development opportunities for global capital and enterprises, focusing on nine key sectors including elderly care and telecommunications [2] - The city is responding to global market demands with a mature manufacturing and supply chain system, increasing investments in R&D, digital, and green economies, aligning with Singapore's investment needs [2] - Guangdong province and Guangzhou have introduced supportive policies targeting foreign enterprises in cutting-edge industries such as hydrogen energy and biotechnology, aiming to attract more Korean businesses [2] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce has enhanced service precision and timeliness, conducting 73 policy briefings and serving over 7,500 enterprises in the past year [3] - The bureau plans to upgrade its enterprise service initiatives, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation and promoting international connections, particularly with APEC economies [3]

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP growth is projected to be 5.0%, consistent with 2024, but showing a "high first, low later" trend[4] - The GDP growth rate and price levels exhibit a clear inverse relationship, with prices under pressure when GDP exceeds 5.0% and improving when below 5.0%[10] Structural Changes - The second industry is expected to decline while the third industry is set to rise, creating a structural optimization that alleviates excess supply pressure[17] - The service sector's growth is anticipated to drive employment and income, thus supporting domestic demand[17] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with consumption rising and investment weakening, indicating a persistent issue of insufficient domestic demand[23] - Final consumption contributed an average of 2.68% to GDP growth from 2020 to 2025, with 2025 specifically at 2.6%[37] Future Outlook - For 2026, GDP growth is expected to slightly decline to around 4.8%, with a focus on structural optimization under the "anti-involution" framework[38] - Policies will shift towards fostering service sector growth and consumer incentives to counterbalance short-term growth pressures from supply adjustments[40] Inflation Trends - In 2026, China is projected to gradually emerge from deflation, with both PPI and CPI growth rates expected to rise[45] - Investment in high-tech industries is anticipated to significantly outpace overall growth, enhancing efficiency in traditional sectors through innovation[45]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "investing in people" as a direct way to improve microeconomic conditions, with three main strategies proposed to enhance consumer spending and economic activity [1][6]. Group 1: Strategies for Economic Improvement - The first strategy is to increase disposable income for the public through enhanced transfer payments, particularly targeted subsidies for specific groups [3][8]. - The second strategy involves improving public services to encourage consumer spending, addressing disparities not only between urban and rural areas but also across different industries and income levels [3][8]. - The third strategy focuses on increasing investment in consumer infrastructure and releasing supply in the service sector to create new consumption scenarios [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Reforms and Policies - The first arrow of economic reform is aimed at demand-side changes, while the second arrow targets supply-side reforms [3][8]. - A policy change is set to gradually eliminate export tax rebates for batteries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, starting April 1. This is seen as a way to allow successful companies to retain profits domestically, which can then be reinvested into the economy [3][8]. - The third arrow pertains to the transformation of the real estate sector, which has been in a downward cycle since 2021, with adjustments ongoing for seven to eight years [3][8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Insights - Some second-tier cities are reportedly stabilizing, with Urumqi showing a capital return rate of 4%, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [4][9]. - As rental yields and mortgage rates increase, a stabilization in the real estate market is anticipated, which would signify a gradual completion of the economic transformation [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The core position is that the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy is entering a decline phase due to internal economic structures and policy choices in the US, rather than external challenges [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Changes - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, leading to structural pressures on the dollar's core position in international trade and finance [1]. - The long-term imbalance in modern global trade has been sustained since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, allowing some countries to maintain trade surpluses while the US continues to act as a global liquidity provider [3]. Group 2: Risks to the US Dollar - The main risks to the dollar's global circulation stem from changes in the US domestic economic structure, including a declining manufacturing sector and widening income distribution gaps, making it difficult for the US to maintain balanced economic growth through globalization [3]. - The US faces a policy dilemma: continuing to push dollars abroad to sustain global demand may lead to structural issues and social conflicts domestically, while reducing dollar outflow to stabilize the domestic economy could decrease global trade demand [3]. Group 3: Implications for China - For China's economic development, three key insights are highlighted: 1. The internationalization of the renminbi should focus on maintaining trade stability rather than attempting to replace the dollar, as excessive pursuit of becoming a reserve currency may increase outflow pressures and impact domestic industrial structure [4]. 2. In response to the trend of reduced global demand from the US, China should accelerate domestic demand construction through consumption upgrades and investment to buffer export pressures [4]. 3. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of US domestic policies on external demand, including adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, which will directly affect China's exports and external demand trends [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The decline of the dollar's global circulation is expected to be a long-term and gradual process, potentially lasting 20 to 30 years [5]. - For China, the strategic focus should be on stabilizing external demand, accelerating domestic demand development, and promoting the steady internationalization of the renminbi, rather than pursuing a short-term goal of replacing the dollar [5].

Core Insights - China's ports are experiencing record-breaking cargo and container throughput, showcasing their robust development despite global trade uncertainties [3][5]. Group 1: Port Performance - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's annual container throughput exceeded 40 million TEUs for the first time, making it the third port globally to reach this milestone [1]. - Shandong Port's Qingdao Port surpassed 700 million tons in annual cargo throughput, achieving this 15 days ahead of 2024 [1]. - Tianjin Port's container throughput exceeded 23.29 million TEUs, also 17 days ahead of 2024 [1]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total port cargo throughput reached 1.675 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while container throughput reached 320 million TEUs, up 6.6% [3]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The construction of major container port areas at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has provided substantial capacity for container growth [4]. - Qingdao Port initiated 15 major projects in 2025, increasing terminal capacity by 16 million tons and yard area by 1.46 million square meters [4]. - The implementation of smart logistics systems at Tianjin Port has significantly improved operational efficiency [4]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Trade Resilience - China's ports are expanding into emerging markets, with new routes to Africa and the Middle East being established [5]. - The demand for high-value goods and clean energy products is driving the increase in port throughput [5]. - In the first 11 months, China's exports of electromechanical products reached 14.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, accounting for 60.9% of total exports [5]. Group 4: Inland Port Development - Inland ports are experiencing significant growth, with cargo throughput increasing by 5.7% compared to coastal ports [7]. - Suzhou Port's cargo throughput reached 56.088 million tons, and container throughput reached 9.33 million TEUs, ranking among the top ports in the country [7]. - The development of inland waterways is being prioritized in various provincial plans to enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms and enhancements in port functions are expected to play a crucial role in driving China's economic growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The new policy on the "National Subsidy" for replacing old consumer goods will continue in 2026, with adjustments to the scope and intensity of subsidies [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Continuation and Adjustments - The "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods replacement will be implemented in 2026, following the guidelines set in the 14th Five-Year Plan to boost consumption [3][6]. - The 2026 subsidy will focus on four main categories: vehicle scrapping, vehicle replacement, home appliances, and digital/智能 products, with the exclusion of home decoration and electric bicycles [6][8]. Group 2: Subsidy Details - In 2026, the home appliance subsidy will cover six categories: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a requirement for products to meet level 1 energy or water efficiency standards [8][10]. - Consumers purchasing eligible home appliances will receive a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item, with a limit of one item per category per consumer [10][11]. - The digital product subsidy will include smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses, with a similar subsidy structure as home appliances, maintaining a cap of 500 yuan per item [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Industry Growth - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly contributed to the domestic market, with over 128 million home appliances replaced in 2025, generating sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan [5]. - The light industry achieved a revenue of 19 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, indicating a positive contribution to the national economy [5]. - The policy is expected to further drive the transformation and upgrading of the light industry, enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods and services [5][11].

Group 1: Long-term Strategy - China's political economy relies on "long-termism," emphasizing historical patience and strategic stability amid global changes[5] - The "Five-Year Plan" exemplifies China's long-term strategy, focusing on continuity and gradual execution rather than disruption[5] - China's understanding of time spans centuries, supporting the value of its assets through long-term goals[5] Group 2: Policy Continuity - The continuity of goals ensures that strategic intentions are realized, with each Five-Year Plan building on the previous one[9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are interconnected, leading towards the centenary goals of building a prosperous socialist modern state[9] - China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 illustrates its steadfast approach to long-term objectives, contrasting with the policy fluctuations seen in Western countries[10] Group 3: Incremental Capability Development - China's governance evolves through iterative upgrades, with policies adapting to current challenges while maintaining overarching themes[12] - The "Made in China 2025" strategy employs a phased approach, aiming for significant advancements by 2025, 2035, and 2049[13] - Infrastructure investments in key regions, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative," reflect a long-term vision for regional connectivity and economic growth[21] Group 4: Social Cohesion and Action - The realization of long-term economic goals depends on collective action across society, facilitated by clear roadmaps and accountability mechanisms[27] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes a comprehensive responsibility system to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of goals[27] - Cultural values, such as the promotion of socialist core values, underpin the social cohesion necessary for achieving long-term objectives[27] Group 5: Investment Themes - Long-termism translates into investment themes, including cultural confidence, strategic industries, and energy security[30] - The focus on local cultural heritage and strategic sectors is expected to continue evolving, reflecting China's unique economic landscape[30] - The stability of China's macro policies is increasingly recognized as a comparative advantage by global investors[30]