Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For soybean oil, as exports resume, investors can go long during price pull - backs [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,304 yuan/ton with a - 1.27% change, and night - session was 9,342 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change. Soybean oil's day - session was 8,284 yuan/ton (- 0.98%), and night - session was 8,346 yuan/ton (0.75%). Rapeseed oil's day - session was 9,984 yuan/ton (- 0.15%), and night - session was 10,006 yuan/ton (0.22%). Malaysian palm oil's day - session was 4,403 ringgit/ton (- 1.01%), and night - session was 4,411 ringgit/ton (0.14%). CBOT soybean oil's day - session was 51.17 cents/pound (- 1.18%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 627,749 lots (- 52,883), and open interest was 423,179 lots (- 12,824). Soybean oil's trading volume was 348,953 lots (+ 1,133), and open interest was 574,844 lots (- 13,601). Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 266,924 lots (- 67,719), and open interest was 326,231 lots (- 10,512) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton (- 180), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton (- 150), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,990 yuan/ton (- 50). Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (+ 5) [1]. - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was - 34 yuan/ton, soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 346 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed and palm oil futures was 680 yuan/ton (previous day), between soybean and palm oil was - 1,020 yuan/ton, palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 262 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 489 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - IGC predicts that the 2025/26 global soybean production will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons. The 2024/25 soybean trade volume is expected to increase by 2 million tons, and the carry - over stock is reduced by 2 million tons. The trade volume is expected to reach a peak of 185 million tons (2% year - on - year increase) [2][3]. - As of the week ending September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 22% the previous week and 33% last year [3]. - CONAB's first forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year shows that Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area is expected to be 49.08 million hectares [3]. - US tariff policies have hit Argentina's soybean crushing industry. The idle capacity of Argentina's crushing equipment rose to 31% in July and has been expanding. Argentina's soybean exports may nearly double from the previous year, but the sustainability is uncertain [3]. - The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast of 20 million tons [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].