Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices retreated from their highs. The main reasons were the increasingly sluggish US employment market, which might drag down Q1 economic growth. Also, the market risk - aversion sentiment cooled, gold and silver prices adjusted sharply, the US dollar rebounded, and the valuation regression of US technology stocks exerted downward pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, domestic smelter production declined marginally, global visible inventories continued to rise, the domestic spot market turned to a small premium, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [3][8]. - Overall, the cooling of global risk - aversion sentiment caused short - term shocks in gold and silver prices. The suspension of interest - rate cuts by European and American central banks at the beginning of the year and the "interest - rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy framework of the newly - nominated chairman Wash made the market doubt whether global central banks could maintain a loose liquidity environment this year. Fundamentally, the strike at a mine in northern Chile ended, and the high refined copper production in December in China effectively supported the off - season supply. China is still in the seasonal inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term with more significant fluctuations, but the medium - term valuation center will continue to rise [3][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on February 6 was $13,060.00 per ton, down $10.50 (-0.08%) from January 30; COMEX copper price was 588.75 cents per pound, down 7.95 cents (-1.33%); SHFE copper price was 100,100 yuan per ton, down 3,580 yuan (-3.45%); international copper price was 88,790 yuan per ton, down 3,100 yuan (-3.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, down 0.27 from January 30. The LME spot premium was -$70.95 per ton, up $18.93 (-21.06%), and the Shanghai spot premium was 40 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from January 30 [4]. - As of February 6, LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons (4.74%) to 183,275 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 11,357 short - tons (1.97%) to 589,081 short - tons; SHFE inventory increased by 15,907 tons (6.83%) to 248,893 tons; Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased by 9,500 tons (-9.60%) to 89,500 tons. The total inventory increased by 26,064 tons (2.40%) to 1,110,749 tons [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices retreated from highs due to the weak US employment market, cooling risk - aversion sentiment, the US dollar rebound, and the valuation regression of US technology stocks. Fundamentally, the tight supply at the mine end continued, domestic smelter production declined marginally, global visible inventories rose, the domestic spot market turned to a small premium, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [8]. - In terms of inventory, as of February 6, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 1.110749 million tons. LME copper inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 10.5%, SHFE inventory increased, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased. The US copper inventory continued to climb, and China's off - season inventory accumulated slowly. The sharp decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index at a low level [8]. - Macroscopically, the US ADP employment in January was only 22,000 people, lower than expected, and the private - sector employment situation was severe. The number of lay - offs announced by US employers in January reached 108,000, a year - on - year increase of 118% and a month - on - month increase of 205%. The new recruitment plan was only 5,300 people, the lowest since 2009. The employment market situation might be deteriorating rapidly, which might affect US consumer spending in Q1 and drag down economic growth. The sharp drop in gold and silver prices dragged down the LME copper trend. The Fed might continue to maintain a moderately loose stance. Trump planned to launch a $12 - billion "Vault Plan" for strategic key - mineral reserves. In China, the central bank held a credit - market work meeting to strengthen financial services in key areas [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore failed. Overseas mine - resumption progress was slow. The US planned to develop African copper - belt resources, and China planned to increase strategic copper reserves. The domestic refined copper supply had a marginal contraction pressure. In December, domestic production rebounded to 1.178 million tons. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices at the beginning of the year, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and global AI data centers provided strong marginal increments for copper consumption [10]. Industry News - Glencore reached a non - binding agreement to sell 40% of its mining assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Orion Critical Mineral Consortium for a total enterprise value of $9 billion. Orion CMC was supported by Abu Dhabi Mining Company and the US International Development Finance Corporation, and planned to invest over $5 billion to support the development of key mineral resources in the US and its allies [12]. - Capstone's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile ended a more than one - month strike and resumed full production after the union approved a new three - year labor contract. In 2025, the mine produced 62,300 tons of copper concentrate and 32,800 tons of cathode copper [13]. - Glencore suspended all emission - reduction - related investment projects at its Horne smelter in northern Quebec, Canada, because it failed to reach an agreement with the Quebec government on a plan to ensure the long - term operation feasibility of the smelter. The company also reduced the medium - term investment scale of its CCR copper refinery in Montreal [14].