王华表示，全球在能源安全、产业链安全的大趋势下，发达国家通过财政扩张加速再工业化进程落地， AI科技革命驱动新基建资本开支增加，为大宗商品价格提供了有力支撑。此外，市场预期美联储在 2026年仍将有2至3次降息，进一步推动了全球货币宽松的预期。在此背景下，商品价格有望获得宏观层 面和行业基本面的双重利好。特别是铜、铝行业，在供给偏紧与需求稳健增长的驱动下，价格中枢有望 持续上移，为投资者带来良好的配置机会。此外，报告还强调了贵金属的长期配置价值，特别是黄金在 全球秩序不稳定及债务增长背景下，作为避险资产的功能日益凸显。 王华认为，中国中央经济工作会议对供给侧改革的深化及物价回升的关注，为中游周期板块探明了底 部、迎来了修复空间。通过"反内卷"政策约束，结合需求侧的托底政策，周期行业的供需格局有望得到 显著改善。例如，新能源、化工等行业，而地产销售的加速探底，其产业链的利空因素逐渐递减，行业 有望在年底迎来修复的可能性。 正启新程——平安基金2026年投资策略会于1月7日举行。平安鑫利混合基金经理王华在分享《周期致远 循势而行：2026年周期板块投资展望》主题报告时指出，随着2026年全球进入财政与货币政策的双 ...

Market Overview - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.55%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.84%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.43%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.38% [4] - The best-performing sectors on January 6 were non-ferrous metals (+4.26%), non-bank financials (+3.73%), basic chemicals (+3.12%), defense and military industry (+3.08%), and comprehensive sector (+2.89%). The worst-performing sector was telecommunications (-0.77%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 6 was 28,323 billion, with a net inflow of 2.879 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic report highlighted two core viewpoints: asset replacement in reserves and a focus on basic and rare metals as a main theme [5] - The geopolitical environment is exceeding expectations, and a potential easing of US-China tensions could lead to a reassessment of national security demands. Additionally, rapid advancements in AI technology may boost global growth and alleviate debt and geopolitical pressures [6] - In the bond market, the current pricing framework for floating-rate bonds is more closely linked to the DR007 benchmark rate. The investment value of floating-rate bonds is expected to improve, considering the narrowing of the short-term interest rate corridor and changes in the yield curve [7] Industry Commentary - The 2025 box office data released by the film bureau showed a total box office of 51.832 billion and 1.238 billion viewers, both exceeding a 20% increase compared to the previous year [10] - The Spring Festival box office set a record for the same period, and the summer box office showed steady growth compared to last year. Several imported blockbusters performed better than expected towards the end of the year, with top films, especially animated ones, dominating the market [10] - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies like Wanda Film, Bona Film, China Film, Shanghai Film, Happy Blue Ocean, Maoyan Entertainment (Hong Kong), and Damai Entertainment (Hong Kong) for the 2026 Spring Festival [10]

智利统计局(INE)公布的数据显示，11月份智利铜产量同比下降7.18%，至451815吨，这是连续第四次下降。 节前最后一个交易日，沪铜期货主力合约小幅上涨0.84%，报收于98240.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 12月31日，根据调研的国内56家电解铜交易企业(含冶炼厂、贸易商、下游加工企业)，当日电解铜现货成交量为1.36万吨，较上个交易日减少0.86 万吨，环比增加减少38.83%。 工会表示，智利Capstone铜业工人开始罢工。 机构观点 冠通期货：近期铜价持续上涨，铜材利润受挤压，产能利用率下滑，生产企业出于原材料价格、库存以及需求等多重因素考虑，普遍放慢生产节 奏。铜箔方面受储能电池需求及终端新能源汽车前置需求的影响及年前小旺季，保持高景气水平。上期所阴极铜库存连续累库，印证下游拿货能 力下降。今日铜及贵金属高位回落，主要系资金情绪影响，并且下游对铜价高价抵触情绪之下，向上驱动有影响，但铜强势上涨格局未变。 铜冠金源期货：美联储会议纪要显示，鸽派官员认为转向更中性的政策立场有利于防止就业市场的进一步恶化，美联储预计将在未来12个月进行 超过2000亿美元的储备管理购债，以缓解季末现金末的流动 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 03 日 元旦假期资产表现与要闻汇总 ——债市策略思考 2025 年全球大类资产表现呈现"贵金属领涨、权益市场崛起、商品分化"的格局。 2025 年大类资产交易围绕"地缘不确定性、A 股价值重估与 AI 科技革命"展开， 资产表现来看白银>黄金>铜>A 股>欧美日股>欧元>美债>中债>美元>原油。贵金 属方面，全球地缘冲突加剧+美元信用体系重构+全球开启宽财政与宽货币周期， 避险诉求推动金价创下 1980 年以来的最大年度涨幅；除避险需求外，投机与工业 需求推动下白银表现更为突出，全年涨幅高达 142%。权益市场方面，政策托底+ 信心修复+资金回流三重因素作用下，国内权益市场迎来价值重估的慢牛行情。AI 叙事进一步深化，全球科技股皆有亮眼表现，科技股引领本轮 A 股牛市。 ❑ 元旦假期要闻汇总 ①基金销售新规正式稿落地，债基赎回费率放宽；②《求是》杂志刊登文章《改 善和稳定房地产市场预期》；③商务部称 2025 年以旧换新相关商品销售额超 2.6 万亿元；④12 月欧元区 PMI 下滑至 48.8%；⑤特朗普 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating that the market has moved past its bottom phase and is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to experience a shift from valuation recovery to improved earnings expectations, with a projected overall profit growth of approximately 4.7% for 2026 [3][36]. - It highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors, including the restructuring of the global monetary order and the ongoing AI technology revolution, which are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets [2][12]. - The report suggests that the market may experience a balanced style shift, with a focus on sectors benefiting from high growth and innovation, as well as those poised for cyclical recovery [4][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The report discusses the ongoing restructuring of international order and its impact on China's industrial innovation, suggesting that the safety of dollar assets is being questioned, which may benefit Chinese assets [12][16]. - It notes that while domestic demand still needs repair, external demand shows resilience, with exports expected to remain stable due to China's manufacturing advantages [13][14]. Earnings Outlook - The report forecasts a positive earnings growth trajectory for 2026, with non-financial corporate earnings expected to grow by around 8.2%, driven by policy implementation and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [36][37]. - It highlights that the banking sector may see stable earnings, while the brokerage and insurance sectors could benefit from an active capital market, although growth rates may moderate due to high base effects [37][39]. Structural Analysis - The report identifies key investment opportunities in high-growth sectors such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to contribute positively to overall market performance [38][39]. - It emphasizes the importance of the capacity cycle, noting that many industries are approaching improvement points after a period of capital expenditure reduction, which could lead to enhanced earnings elasticity [39][40]. - The report also points out that overseas expansion remains a significant growth opportunity for companies, with an increasing share of revenue coming from international markets [40].

沪铜早间小幅高开，涨幅一度超过2%，随后行情有所转弱，收盘涨幅收窄至0.84%。国内政策面利好提 振铜需求预期，但贵金属再度大跌带来一定拖累，沪铜冲高回落。 美联储12月会议纪要较为平淡，美元指数略微上涨，对于市场的指引有限。中国12月官方制造业PMI重 回扩张区间，国内经济景气水平整体回升。叠加昨日中国发改委和财政部发布2026年更大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新政策，家电、汽车等需求前景向好，部分金属需求预期受振，表现偏强。 最近沪铜高位调整，国内现货贴水略有收窄，但也受市场货源流通偏紧影响，临近假期市场交易清淡。 此前国内精铜社会库存连续大幅累积，但由于美国虹吸效应影响，非美地区库存不算高企，因此拖累暂 时有限，后续仍需关注全球铜库存流动情况。 对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，美联储会议纪要显示，鸽派官员认为转向更中性的政策立场有利于防止 就业市场的进一步恶化，美联储预计将在未来12个月进行超过2000亿美元的储备管理购债，以缓解季末 现金末的流动性需求，美元指数反弹对金属拖累有限，全球电气化转型和AI科技革命对需求带来强劲 增长空间；基本面来看，全球中断矿山复产缓慢，LME显性库存再度下探，国内传统行业需 ...

新华财经北京12月31日电（胡晨曦） 2025年最后一个交易日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指全天震荡微 涨0.09%，录得11连阳；创业板指则震荡下挫。截至今日收盘，沪指报3968.84点，涨幅0.09%，成交额 约8295亿元；深成指报13525.02点，跌幅0.58%，成交额约12157亿元；创业板指报3203.17点，跌幅 1.23%，成交额约5491亿元。 从今日的盘面上看，航天航空、航空机场、教育、互联网服务、计算机设备、文化传媒板块涨幅居前， 医药商业、船舶制造、电池、石油行业、半导体板块跌幅居前。 纵观2025全年，沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关，创下近十年新高，全年收涨18.41%；深证成指 全年收涨29.87%；创业板指全年大涨49.57%；科创50指数全年涨35.92%，北证50指数全年涨38.8%。A 股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年内新增近23万亿元，一举刷新历史纪录。个股同样表现亮眼，胜宏科 技、新易盛、中际旭创等多只科技龙头全年涨幅超过3倍。板块方面，CPO、存储芯片、商业航天、有 色金属等方向领涨。 机构观点 巨丰投顾：周三市场震荡运行，卫星互联网板块涨幅居前。从目前趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with extreme bullish sentiment on one side and sudden bearish movements on the other, indicating a potential turning point for precious metals [5][10]. Short-term Disturbances - Investors should avoid acting as "purchasers" during the upcoming passive fund rebalancing, which is expected to exert selling pressure on silver (9%) and gold (3%) [16][18]. - Active funds are likely to preemptively reduce their holdings to lock in profits, suggesting that the current bullish trend in precious metals may soon end [20][21]. - It is advised to reduce positions in non-ferrous stocks to navigate this turbulent period [22]. Long-term Support for Gold Bull Market - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by four key factors: 1. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for three consecutive years, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually, and are projected to reach 1,086 tons in 2024 [31]. 2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices, with three cuts anticipated by 2025 [36][37]. 3. The global debt crisis, particularly in the U.S., has created a demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as debt levels exceed $36 trillion [42][45]. 4. Retail investors currently have a low allocation to gold, with U.S. gold ETFs comprising only 0.17% of private investment portfolios, indicating significant room for growth [49]. Market Trends and Predictions - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed U.S. equities over the past 25 years, with a 20-year return rate of 761% compared to the S&P 500's 673% [64]. - The current gold price has surpassed $4,500, with a total market capitalization of $31.5 trillion, suggesting a strong valuation relative to historical peaks [66]. - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 per ounce by 2029, driven by multiple factors including the Fed's interest rate policies and global de-dollarization [69][72]. Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive measures, such as reducing positions to avoid passive selling pressure, while long-term strategies should involve buying on dips as market volatility stabilizes [83][88]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related ETFs for a straightforward investment approach that aligns with gold price movements [92].

当下贵金属市场，正上演一出真实版"冰与火之歌"。 本是该从从容容游刃有余的布局时刻，可现在不少投资者却被逼得匆匆忙忙连滚带爬。 一边是火焰滔天，做多情绪飙到顶点，拥挤度直接拉满。 沪银VIX和美国SLV期权波动率，双双触及历史极值。 另一边却是寒冰骤降，画风突变猝不及防，铂金现货突发大跌。 资金分歧赤裸裸摆上台面，当下是否正是贵金属的转折点？答案反倒愈发清晰。 短期先避险躲坑，中长线再逢低布局——所谓"风浪越大鱼越贵"，跳出短期波动迷局，方能接住长期趋势的红利。 被动基金如同"乖学生"，严格跟着指数调整持仓，毫无灵活操作空间，只能被动承接调仓压力。 其中白银将面临9%的卖盘冲击，黄金也有3%抛压。 这笔抛压足以搅乱短期盘面，引发震荡。 更精明的主动基金，不会坐等调仓窗口开启。 它们大概率提前抢跑减持，锁定已有利润。 这意味着，当前贵金属逼仓行情随时可能终结。 01 短期扰动：调仓抛压下，别当接盘侠 短线玩家先清醒，此刻追高大概率站岗。 最确定的风险，来自一场"被动调仓大搬家"。 彭博商品指数（BCOM）1月8日至15日将开启年度调仓。 有色股短线建议适当减仓，先避过这波风波。 短线博弈拼的是反应快，而非死扛硬 ...

当下贵金属市场，正上演一出真实版"冰与火之歌"。 本是该从从容容游刃有余的布局时刻，可现在不少投资者却被逼得匆匆忙忙连滚带爬。 一边是火焰滔天，做多情绪飙到顶点，拥挤度直接拉满。 沪银VIX和美国SLV期权波动率，双双触及历史极值。 另一边却是寒冰骤降，画风突变猝不及防，铂金现货突发大跌。 资金分歧赤裸裸摆上台面，当下是否正是贵金属的转折点？答案反倒愈发清晰。 短期先避险躲坑，中长线再逢低布局——所谓"风浪越大鱼越贵"，跳出短期波动迷局，方能接住长期趋势的红利。 短期扰动：调仓抛压下，别当接盘侠 短线玩家先清醒，此刻追高大概率站岗。 最确定的风险，来自一场"被动调仓大搬家"。 彭博商品指数（BCOM）1月8日至15日将开启年度调仓。 被动基金如同"乖学生"，严格跟着指数调整持仓，毫无灵活操作空间，只能被动承接调仓压力。 其中白银将面临9%的卖盘冲击，黄金也有3%抛压。 这笔抛压足以搅乱短期盘面，引发震荡。 短线博弈拼的是反应快，而非死扛硬顶。 长期锚点：四大逻辑筑牢黄金牛市根基 短线波动只是小风浪，改变不了长期上行趋势。 黄金能一路走强，靠的是实打实的核心支撑。 格隆汇研究院早有前瞻布局，绝非事后诸葛亮。 2 ...