每日经济新闻 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属采 选、冶炼与加工的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖铜业、黄金、铝、稀土和锂等主要领域。该指数反 映了有色金属行业的整体表现，具有明显的周期性特征，并受到经济周期及新能源产业发展的影响。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 广发证券指出，2025年有色金属行业表现领先，背后是围绕美元信用走弱和AI科技革命的一系列宏观 叙事驱动。工业金属如铜价涨幅显著，COMEX铜较去年底上涨26.8%。2026年随着全球叙事收敛，有 色金属可能从定价远期转向远近结合，真实需求定价权上升。此外，反内卷政策及南方国家工业化带来 的出口需求可能成为结构性支撑。 ...

2026 年全球资产配置展望 20251121 2026 年的投资有两个核心关切：第一是股票和黄金的牛市能否延续；第二是 如果牛市有所改变，应采取哪些应对措施。近期中国、美股及黄金都有一些回 调，反映市场开始思考未来趋势改变的可能性。 当前黄金、美股和中国债券估值较高，美债和原油等商品估值较低。A 股和港股估值适中。地缘政治事件可能冲击市场，通常对股票不利，对 黄金和商品有推升作用。 维持超配中国股票和黄金的策略，但需注意波动风险。增加商品配置以 对冲股票和黄金牛市趋势改变的风险。中国股票风格应更均衡，价值与 周期板块可能补涨。 如何分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律？ 分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律时，可以通过历史数据总结其特点。例如， 美股牛市占总市场时间比例较长（84%），单次牛市时长约为 5.6 年，而熊市 较短，因此分析其顶部性价比不高。而中国股票波动较大，牛熊切换频繁，需 要更关注顶部判断。同样，黄金牛熊分布均衡，但单次周期较长，因此顶部判 断也很重要。 摘要 全球股票和黄金市场受益于技术革命和成长股跑赢价值股的趋势，中国 股票表现优于美国股票。中金建议超配黄金和中国科技股，低配商品和 美元资产，该策 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market has generally risen this year, with major markets like the US, Japan, and Germany reaching historical highs, and the A-share Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by the AI technology revolution and sustained monetary easing from central banks [1][3] - As the AI technology trend matures, concerns about market volatility and high valuations are increasing among investors, prompting discussions on asset allocation strategies [1][3] - The article introduces a series focused on global asset allocation strategies in the context of the AI wave, starting with a broad overview of the current investment environment [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of offensive assets, US tech stocks are highlighted as suitable investments, despite the market being at a relatively high valuation level, as corporate earnings growth remains strong, with 63% of companies exceeding earnings expectations in Q3 [3][4] - The Nasdaq index shows a year-on-year earnings growth rate of 25.4%, indicating that sustained earnings growth may help mitigate high valuations over time [3][4] - The article suggests maintaining a focus on large-cap tech stocks while being mindful of market volatility and exploring tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [3][4] Group 3 - For defensive assets, US Treasury bonds and hedging strategies are recommended, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have contributed to a decline in bond yields [4][5] - Various types of US bonds have performed well this year, with the US Aggregate Bond Index up 6.71% and the US Treasury Index up 5.97% year-to-date, indicating strong performance amid a loosening monetary policy [4][5] - The article emphasizes the potential of US Treasuries as a tool to hedge against stock market volatility, particularly in a controlled inflation environment with rising economic pressures [4][5] Group 4 - Hedging strategies are discussed as a means to offset systemic risks through dual trading, allowing investors to capture trading opportunities while mitigating market risks [5][6] - These strategies can provide independent performance from both equity and bond markets, offering attractive absolute return potential [5][6] - Future articles in the series will delve deeper into the configuration of US tech stocks and the performance characteristics of hedging strategies [5][6]

同时，缪延亮指出，新秩序下中美形成"平衡"，有助于中国竞争力得到重新评估，甚至应该获得更多的 信心溢价，打开新的估值修复空间。而"脆弱"则意味着尾部风险仍可能发生，黄金是最终对冲手段。尤 其是在国际货币秩序重构加速和强化之下，缪延亮认为当前黄金牛市行情可能演绎仍不充分，黄金具备 较好的中长期配置价值。 谈及股市，缪延亮认为，历史上在科技革命中，技术进步带来的需求成长，往往催生丰富的高成长性投 资机会，股市呈现成长跑赢价值格局。但是在大国长期相持与竞争的状态下，容易出现资源过度投入生 产，导致效率下降甚至产能过剩；而且经济活动不确定性上升，也难免影响全球经贸中长期成长空间。 因此在本轮AI科技革命中，成长未必持续跑赢价值，风格轮动可能比历史上科技革命时期的风格轮动 更频繁。 【导读】中金公司举办2026年度策略会 近日，中金公司举办2026年度投资策略会，以"乘势·谋新"为主题，围绕市场主题开展深入交流，共吸 引超4500人报名参会。 会后的媒体交流会上，中金公司首席策略分析师缪延亮、科技行业分析师陈昊、有色行业首席分析师齐 丁分享了此轮牛市的来时路，并展望了牛市将走向何方。 策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系 ...

寻找中国股票与黄金牛市的顶部规律 正文 2025年全球市场大开大阖，股票与黄金领涨，非美资产整体跑赢美元资产，科技成长显著强于周期与价值，商品与债券表现偏弱，美元进入贬值通道。我 们认为，这一轮资产价格的演绎反映了两大长期趋势的共振：宏观层面，货币秩序正在重构，美元进入贬值周期，推高黄金与非美资产估值;产业层面， AI科技革命持续深化，驱动股票强势上涨，成长风格占优。 我们建议顺势而为，维持超配黄金、增配中国科技股票，美元资产与商品排序靠后。回顾2025年至今的市场表现，全球主要资产走势基本印证了我们的判 断。进入2026年，资产配置的核心问题是全球股票与黄金经历了持续的大幅上涨之后，牛市趋势未来还能否持续?哪些因素可能打断这一趋势?如果市场趋 势出现变化，资产配置又该如何应对?回答这些问题，我们首先回溯历史，系统梳理各类资产在过去数十年中的牛熊切换规律，寻找影响市场趋势转折的 共性因素，为判断未来市场拐点提供经验参照。 (一)全球大类资产的牛熊规律 我们首先总结国内外股票、债券、商品共九种大类资产的牛熊切换规律。我们观察到： 我们总结全球大类资产的牛熊切换规律，发现美股牛长熊短，牛市总时长占比超过80%，判 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on the "Trump tariffs" has raised questions about the future of U.S. tariff policies, with market expectations shifting towards a potential rejection of these tariffs [2] - The implications of different verdicts on tariffs could significantly affect macroeconomic conditions, fiscal policies, and the bond market [2] Group 2: E-commerce Industry - The e-commerce sector is expected to see moderate growth during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with GMV projected to increase by mid-to-high single digits, benefiting from platform subsidies and extended promotional timelines [3] - Major platforms are expected to show differentiated performance, with Douyin's GMV growth estimated at 20-25%, Pinduoduo at 10-15%, while JD.com may see low single-digit growth and Alibaba is expected to remain flat [3] - The competitive landscape among e-commerce platforms is anticipated to remain intense in 2026, with a focus on traffic acquisition and core user benefits [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from "sharpness" to a more balanced approach, with a focus on identifying more certain opportunities while mitigating tail risks [4] - Key drivers for the global manufacturing cycle include the AI technology revolution and the transition of China's economic drivers, with a continued emphasis on risk assets [4] Group 4: Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.7% from January to October 2025, with retail sales driven by subsidies but showing signs of weakening marginal growth [5] - Three major trends are identified: the resilience of leading white goods manufacturers, the strengthening of smart technology in appliances, and significant growth potential in emerging technologies like AI and robotics [5] Group 5: Energy Sector - The fourth-generation nuclear power technologies are expected to gain traction due to site restrictions and resource constraints, presenting investment opportunities in related industries [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for traditional power generation equipment and the anticipated growth in nuclear power projects [14] Group 6: Selected Companies - Gaode Infrared has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 18.90 CNY, driven by expected growth in complete equipment orders [10] - Ying Tong Holdings, a leading high-end perfume brand manager, has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 2.86 HKD, benefiting from the recovery in high-end consumption [10] - Harsco Electric is positioned to benefit from the normalization of third-generation nuclear approvals and the anticipated acceleration of fourth-generation nuclear development [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend since "9.24", with increasing importance of fundamentals after a valuation correction, supported by the new phase of Sino-US relations, restructuring of the international monetary order, and the AI revolution entering a critical application period [2][5][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The new global order and domestic macroeconomic needs require proactive responses, with the Sino-US relationship entering a new stage, which will continue to promote global capital reallocation favoring Chinese assets [6][12]. - The A-share market is transitioning from valuation recovery to improved profit expectations, with an estimated overall profit growth of around 4.7% for 2026, driven by high-growth sectors and industries nearing performance improvement inflection points [6][30]. - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, with the current risk premium of the CSI 300 at 5.2%, indicating a favorable comparison to the bond market in the context of "asset scarcity" [6][30]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on three main lines: 1) Growth in high-prosperity sectors, particularly in AI and innovative industries; 2) Opportunities from external demand, especially in sectors like home appliances and engineering machinery; 3) Cyclical reversals in industries such as chemicals and renewable energy [7][28]. - The market style is expected to become more balanced, driven by the end of the capacity reduction cycle and policies promoting "anti-involution," leading to a closer supply-demand balance in many cyclical industries [7][28]. Group 3: Profit Growth and Structural Analysis - The profit growth for A-shares is projected to be around 4.7% in 2026, with non-financial companies expected to see an 8.2% increase in net profit, supported by policy implementation and the ongoing AI trend [29][30]. - High-growth innovative sectors are anticipated to support the index, with significant contributions expected from AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing [31][32]. - The capacity cycle is showing signs of improvement, with many industries experiencing a turning point after three years of capital expenditure reduction, leading to potential investment opportunities [32][33].

Group 1 - The article discusses the new dynamics of the dual circulation model in the context of changing geopolitical conditions, emphasizing the importance of innovation and domestic demand to leverage China's scale economy advantages [5][7] - It highlights the recent trends in the macroeconomic environment, including the tightening of dollar liquidity and the Federal Reserve's plans to end quantitative tightening by December 2025, which may lead to a reintroduction of balance sheet expansion [7][9] - The article analyzes the movement of foreign capital, noting a divergence in investment patterns between Asia-Pacific and Europe-America, with a projected inflow of approximately 4500-6000 million HKD from public funds and insurance into the Hong Kong stock market [9][11] Group 2 - It points out the divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting that increased risk appetite among investors may be a key driver of stock market support despite weak economic indicators [12][14] - The article outlines the long-term trends affecting global markets, including the restructuring of monetary order and the AI technology revolution, which are expected to influence asset performance in 2026 [14][16] - It concludes with a strategy recommendation to maintain an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold while standardizing investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, anticipating potential shifts in economic indicators [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in global asset prices in 2025, attributing these changes to two long-term trends: the reconstruction of monetary order leading to a depreciation of the US dollar, and the AI technology revolution driving stock market growth. It suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold and technology stocks while underweighting dollar assets and commodities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Factors Changing Market Trends - Four main factors that could alter market trends are identified: high valuations, tightening policies, geopolitical shocks, and growth shifts. High valuations alone are not expected to trigger market adjustments without other driving factors [5][6][12]. - The article notes that Chinese stocks are currently at median valuation levels, suggesting potential for further upside if supported by fundamentals. In contrast, gold and US stocks are viewed as relatively expensive but still have strong long-term bullish narratives [6][12]. - Policy tightening is highlighted as a critical factor, with historical evidence showing that bull markets in stocks and gold often end during periods of tightening. The US inflation cycle is expected to peak around mid-2026, which could impact market dynamics [12][13]. - Geopolitical tensions are seen as beneficial for gold but detrimental to stocks, with historical data indicating that geopolitical events typically have short-lived impacts on asset prices [12][15]. - The article discusses the potential for economic growth shifts, emphasizing that if both the US and China experience stronger growth, it could favor stocks while challenging gold prices [12][16]. Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2026 H1 - Chinese Stocks: Maintain an overweight position, with a balanced style favoring technology growth stocks and cyclical value sectors as economic expectations improve [18]. - US Stocks: Maintain a neutral position, benefiting from macro liquidity and technology trends, while favoring Chinese stocks due to expected dollar depreciation [19]. - Chinese Bonds: Downgrade from neutral to underweight, as the bond market may face pressure from economic shifts and rising risk appetite [19]. - US Bonds: Maintain a neutral stance, with potential for yields to drop below 4%, but caution is advised due to rising inflation and fiscal expansion risks [19]. - Commodities: Upgrade from underweight to neutral, as they may benefit from improved economic conditions and serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks [19]. - Gold: Maintain an overweight position, supported by strong fundamentals such as monetary order reconstruction and rising geopolitical risks, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 per ounce [20].