3)中国股票涨幅在全球股市排名靠前，受益AI产业趋势的A股创业板指上涨近50%，沪深300指数全年上 涨18%，港股恒生指数上涨28%，均为近5年最大年涨幅且跑赢美股市场。其它资产方面，原油下跌18% 成为表现最差的资产，美债明显上涨，全球呈现出股债双牛的格局。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国 际货币秩序重构加速之年，2026年中金认为该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和黄金延续牛市， 并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。资产配置建议：超配中国股票和黄金，标配大宗商品、美股和美债，低配 中国国债。 中金公司主要观点如下： 一、 2025年全球与中国资产回顾与启示 全球市场黄金与中国股票领涨，非美资产跑赢美元资产，美元贬值。回顾2025年全球主要大类资产以美 元计价的表现，有几个突出特征： 1)黄金表现最好，2025年涨幅67%，涨幅也创下了1980年以来的最大年涨幅，有色金属中具备较强金融 属性的铜也涨幅靠前。 2)美元贬值，非美资产跑赢，美元成为去年表现最差的资产之一，美元指数跌幅接近10%，标普500代 表的美股上涨16%，新兴市场股票上涨31 ...

业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 2月24日，春节后的第一个交易日，A股三大指数均大幅高开，有色板块表现尤为强势。揽尽有色金属 龙头的热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格飙涨超3.6%。截至发稿，有色ETF华宝 （159876）获资金实时净申购720万份，呈现出资金看好有色后市，积极入场布局。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了 ...

业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了"AI科技革命"与"全球秩序重塑"两大长期逻 辑，其持续性和战略意义不亚于战后重建、我国对外开放等历史阶段。 有色板块止跌反弹的势头愈发强劲。2月12日，中证有色指数继续反弹，一度涨逾1.5%，跟踪该指数的 热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘后持续走高，目前涨超1 ...

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

核心观点 证券研究报告 固收 "三高"环境下的应对和选择 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2026 年 2 月 11 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 近期全球市场呈现出高估值、高共识、高波动的"三高"状态，贵金属、比 特币、海外长债、美元指数、部分科技股等资产均出现了大幅波动。背后源 于全球流动性宽松的环境，市场共识在 AI 时代低成本的快速传播，容易带 来拥挤行情。建议在交易层面兼顾赔率，基于风险因子预算以及资产的负相 关性多元化配置，加强对市场情绪、资金流和仓位的跟踪。配置上，高估值 +高拥挤带来近日的全球市场高波动，不过各国财政+AI 资本开支推动制造 业周期回升的基本面主线仍在延续，秩序重构等主题继续演绎，多数权益和 商品处于相对顺风，建议仍以回调后择机买入为主。国内春节将至，日历效 应对股市或更偏积极，债市在长假期间有票息优势。AI 模型、伊朗局势、 春节期间的消费数据等是关注点。 核心主题："三高"环境下的应对与选择 我们认为当前"三高"的市场环境源于以下几个方面，一是全球货币宽松以 及美元走弱带来的充裕流动性环境；二是全球秩序重构、AI 科技革命等主 线在 AI 时代快速演绎；三是新资金+强叙事+强动量， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector after a significant decline, with the China Securities Nonferrous Metals Index dropping over 15% in just seven trading days since January 29 [1] - The recent performance of the popular ETF tracking the index, Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), shows a notable increase of 2.73% [1] - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance, indicating a super cycle in non-ferrous metals driven by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that each super copper cycle corresponds with a strong macro narrative, and the current cycle is expected to have a strategic significance comparable to post-war reconstruction and China's opening up [1] - Industry experts note that commodity cycles are typically long, lasting 25 to 30 years, with upward trends lasting 8 to 10 years and downward trends lasting 15 to 20 years, suggesting a prolonged bullish phase for non-ferrous metals [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's beta performance [1]

Group 1 - The core change in the commodity market is the divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal), with the former experiencing a tight balance of "rigid supply + explosive demand" and the latter facing "loose supply + slowing demand" [1] - The structural differentiation in the market is driven by global carbon neutrality goals, which have increased the demand for "green metals" while exploration and development of these resources are severely insufficient, with capacity release cycles lasting 5 to 10 years [1] - The current global macroeconomic environment resembles a recovery phase rather than an overheating phase, with commodity performance driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [2] Group 2 - The mechanism of commodity rotation has changed significantly, with global supply chains shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, where resource country policies are becoming price-dominant factors [2] - Examples include Indonesia's nickel and tin export restrictions, frequent policy adjustments in Chile's copper mines, and nationalization efforts in Bolivia and Ecuador for lithium, all of which are altering traditional supply-demand dynamics [2] - The transfer of China's processing capacity to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, along with the push for "domestic manufacturing" in the US, is creating a regional supply-demand closed loop, leading to increased price volatility and independent regional characteristics [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices retreated from their highs. The main reasons were the increasingly sluggish US employment market, which might drag down Q1 economic growth. Also, the market risk - aversion sentiment cooled, gold and silver prices adjusted sharply, the US dollar rebounded, and the valuation regression of US technology stocks exerted downward pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, domestic smelter production declined marginally, global visible inventories continued to rise, the domestic spot market turned to a small premium, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [3][8]. - Overall, the cooling of global risk - aversion sentiment caused short - term shocks in gold and silver prices. The suspension of interest - rate cuts by European and American central banks at the beginning of the year and the "interest - rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy framework of the newly - nominated chairman Wash made the market doubt whether global central banks could maintain a loose liquidity environment this year. Fundamentally, the strike at a mine in northern Chile ended, and the high refined copper production in December in China effectively supported the off - season supply. China is still in the seasonal inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term with more significant fluctuations, but the medium - term valuation center will continue to rise [3][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on February 6 was $13,060.00 per ton, down $10.50 (-0.08%) from January 30; COMEX copper price was 588.75 cents per pound, down 7.95 cents (-1.33%); SHFE copper price was 100,100 yuan per ton, down 3,580 yuan (-3.45%); international copper price was 88,790 yuan per ton, down 3,100 yuan (-3.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, down 0.27 from January 30. The LME spot premium was -$70.95 per ton, up $18.93 (-21.06%), and the Shanghai spot premium was 40 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from January 30 [4]. - As of February 6, LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons (4.74%) to 183,275 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 11,357 short - tons (1.97%) to 589,081 short - tons; SHFE inventory increased by 15,907 tons (6.83%) to 248,893 tons; Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased by 9,500 tons (-9.60%) to 89,500 tons. The total inventory increased by 26,064 tons (2.40%) to 1,110,749 tons [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices retreated from highs due to the weak US employment market, cooling risk - aversion sentiment, the US dollar rebound, and the valuation regression of US technology stocks. Fundamentally, the tight supply at the mine end continued, domestic smelter production declined marginally, global visible inventories rose, the domestic spot market turned to a small premium, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrowed [8]. - In terms of inventory, as of February 6, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 1.110749 million tons. LME copper inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 10.5%, SHFE inventory increased, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased. The US copper inventory continued to climb, and China's off - season inventory accumulated slowly. The sharp decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index at a low level [8]. - Macroscopically, the US ADP employment in January was only 22,000 people, lower than expected, and the private - sector employment situation was severe. The number of lay - offs announced by US employers in January reached 108,000, a year - on - year increase of 118% and a month - on - month increase of 205%. The new recruitment plan was only 5,300 people, the lowest since 2009. The employment market situation might be deteriorating rapidly, which might affect US consumer spending in Q1 and drag down economic growth. The sharp drop in gold and silver prices dragged down the LME copper trend. The Fed might continue to maintain a moderately loose stance. Trump planned to launch a $12 - billion "Vault Plan" for strategic key - mineral reserves. In China, the central bank held a credit - market work meeting to strengthen financial services in key areas [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore failed. Overseas mine - resumption progress was slow. The US planned to develop African copper - belt resources, and China planned to increase strategic copper reserves. The domestic refined copper supply had a marginal contraction pressure. In December, domestic production rebounded to 1.178 million tons. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices at the beginning of the year, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and global AI data centers provided strong marginal increments for copper consumption [10]. Industry News - Glencore reached a non - binding agreement to sell 40% of its mining assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Orion Critical Mineral Consortium for a total enterprise value of $9 billion. Orion CMC was supported by Abu Dhabi Mining Company and the US International Development Finance Corporation, and planned to invest over $5 billion to support the development of key mineral resources in the US and its allies [12]. - Capstone's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile ended a more than one - month strike and resumed full production after the union approved a new three - year labor contract. In 2025, the mine produced 62,300 tons of copper concentrate and 32,800 tons of cathode copper [13]. - Glencore suspended all emission - reduction - related investment projects at its Horne smelter in northern Quebec, Canada, because it failed to reach an agreement with the Quebec government on a plan to ensure the long - term operation feasibility of the smelter. The company also reduced the medium - term investment scale of its CCR copper refinery in Montreal [14].