Core Viewpoint - The company issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of approximately -90 to -40 million HKD for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a net profit of 113 million HKD in the first half of 2024, primarily due to fluctuations in spot uranium prices affecting the international trade business and a decline in joint venture performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's international trade business faced a cost-price inversion in the first half of 2025, with unit sales costs ranging from 68 to 74 USD/lbs U3O8, while contract sales prices were between 58 to 61 USD/lbs U3O8, resulting in a gross loss of 7 to 16 USD/lbs U3O8 [1] - The estimated loss from the international trade segment for the first half of 2025 is approximately -362 to -312 million HKD [1] Group 2: Future Sales Agreements - A new three-year uranium sales framework agreement for 2026-2028 was approved, adjusting the pricing mechanism to 30% base price and 70% spot price, with significant increases in base prices from previous years [2] - The new base prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are set at 94.22, 98.08, and 102.10 USD/lbs respectively, compared to previous years' prices [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The global nuclear energy revival is supported by multiple factors, including decarbonization goals, energy security needs, AI-driven electricity growth, and geopolitical changes [2] - Recent policy actions in the U.S. and Japan, along with agreements between major companies for nuclear power purchases, indicate a positive outlook for nuclear energy demand [2] - The long-term price of uranium is expected to remain strong, with recent statistics showing a month-on-month increase in uranium prices [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 51% to 348 million HKD due to one-time losses in the international trade business, while net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 are projected at 1,039 million HKD and 1,123 million HKD respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 2.43 HKD, with a "buy" rating supported by a valuation of 18.0x P/E for 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.43 [7]. Core Views - Despite a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in uranium prices in the second half of 2025, which could mitigate the one-time impacts affecting earnings [1][5]. - The approval of a new sales framework agreement for uranium sales from 2026 to 2028 is expected to significantly boost future earnings, with a substantial increase in benchmark prices [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing global nuclear energy revival driven by decarbonization goals, energy security needs, and geopolitical factors, which supports a positive long-term demand outlook for uranium [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of approximately -90 to -40 million HKD for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from 113 million HKD in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The unit sales cost for uranium in the first half of 2025 was between 68 to 74 USD/lbs, while the contract sales price was only 58 to 61 USD/lbs, resulting in a gross loss of 7 to 16 USD/lbs [2]. Sales Framework Agreement - The new sales agreement for 2026-2028 adjusts the pricing mechanism to 30% benchmark price and 70% spot price, with benchmark prices set to increase significantly from previous years [3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights various factors contributing to the nuclear energy revival, including policy changes in the US and Japan, and partnerships between tech companies and energy providers, which are expected to drive demand for nuclear power [4]. - The long-term outlook for uranium prices remains positive, with recent data indicating a month-on-month increase in long-term uranium prices [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025 down by 51% to 348 million HKD, while maintaining optimistic projections for 2026 and 2027 with expected profits of 1,039 million HKD and 1,123 million HKD respectively [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a three-year natural uranium sales agreement with its parent company, China Uranium Development, for the years 2026-28, with benchmark prices and annual increment factors exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the global nuclear energy revival and the company's profitability and valuation [1] Pricing and Sales Agreement - The benchmark price for the new agreement is set at $94.22, $98.08, and $102.1 per pound of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, which is significantly higher than the market average of $80 per pound since February [1] - The annual increment factor for the new agreement is increased to 4.1%, up from 3.5% in the previous agreement, reflecting a positive industry outlook on global uranium supply and demand tightening [2] - The proportion of spot price in the pricing formula has been raised from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's profit elasticity and aligning future sales prices more closely with spot market trends [2] Sales Capacity and Growth Potential - The annual sales cap in the new agreement considers potential resource increases, with expected annual sales volumes of 1,438, 1,617, and 1,598 tons of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, plus an additional buffer of 600 tons per year [2] - This clause reinforces the company's role as a platform for overseas uranium asset development under China General Nuclear Power Group, highlighting its growth potential in seeking uranium resource investment opportunities [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-27 upwards by 15% and 10% to 1.028 billion and 1.135 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14 and 0.15 yuan [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 2.43 from HKD 1.88, reflecting a clearer expectation of volume and price for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 18.0x for 2026 [2]