Core Viewpoint - The company issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of approximately -90 to -40 million HKD for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a net profit of 113 million HKD in the first half of 2024, primarily due to fluctuations in spot uranium prices affecting the international trade business and a decline in joint venture performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's international trade business faced a cost-price inversion in the first half of 2025, with unit sales costs ranging from 68 to 74 USD/lbs U3O8, while contract sales prices were between 58 to 61 USD/lbs U3O8, resulting in a gross loss of 7 to 16 USD/lbs U3O8 [1] - The estimated loss from the international trade segment for the first half of 2025 is approximately -362 to -312 million HKD [1] Group 2: Future Sales Agreements - A new three-year uranium sales framework agreement for 2026-2028 was approved, adjusting the pricing mechanism to 30% base price and 70% spot price, with significant increases in base prices from previous years [2] - The new base prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are set at 94.22, 98.08, and 102.10 USD/lbs respectively, compared to previous years' prices [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The global nuclear energy revival is supported by multiple factors, including decarbonization goals, energy security needs, AI-driven electricity growth, and geopolitical changes [2] - Recent policy actions in the U.S. and Japan, along with agreements between major companies for nuclear power purchases, indicate a positive outlook for nuclear energy demand [2] - The long-term price of uranium is expected to remain strong, with recent statistics showing a month-on-month increase in uranium prices [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 51% to 348 million HKD due to one-time losses in the international trade business, while net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 are projected at 1,039 million HKD and 1,123 million HKD respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 2.43 HKD, with a "buy" rating supported by a valuation of 18.0x P/E for 2026 [2]

证券研究报告 中广核矿业 (1164 HK) 港股通 国际贸易扰动不改自产贸易积极趋势 2025 年 8 月 21 日│中国香港 其他金属非金属新材料及加工 2025 年 8 月 20 日，公司发布盈利警告，预计 2025 年上半年录得归母净利 润约-90~-40 百万港元，相比 1H24 归母净利润 113 百万港元同比盈转亏， 主要系现货铀价大幅波动导致公司天然铀国际贸易业务的账面存货加权平 均成本倒挂销售合同售价，以及 1H25 天然铀价格回落引起联营/合营公司 业绩同比下滑所致。虽然 1H25 盈利承压，但我们认为现货铀价回暖下上述 因素的一次性影响有望在 2H25 消除，叠加中长期公司与控股股东中广核铀 业签订的 2026-28 年新销售框架协议已在 8 月 19 日股东大会投票通过，公 司 2026-28 年天然铀销售基准价格有望大幅上调。我们重申看好全球核能 复兴共振叠加公司销售协议落地带动盈利、估值双击，维持"买入"评级。 1H25 现货市场波动导致国际贸易业务采销倒挂 1H25 公司旗下中广核国际销售公司实现单位销售成本 68~74 美元/lbs U3O8，与交付合同销售价格 58~61 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a three-year natural uranium sales agreement with its parent company, China Uranium Development, for the years 2026-28, with benchmark prices and annual increment factors exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the global nuclear energy revival and the company's profitability and valuation [1] Pricing and Sales Agreement - The benchmark price for the new agreement is set at $94.22, $98.08, and $102.1 per pound of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, which is significantly higher than the market average of $80 per pound since February [1] - The annual increment factor for the new agreement is increased to 4.1%, up from 3.5% in the previous agreement, reflecting a positive industry outlook on global uranium supply and demand tightening [2] - The proportion of spot price in the pricing formula has been raised from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's profit elasticity and aligning future sales prices more closely with spot market trends [2] Sales Capacity and Growth Potential - The annual sales cap in the new agreement considers potential resource increases, with expected annual sales volumes of 1,438, 1,617, and 1,598 tons of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, plus an additional buffer of 600 tons per year [2] - This clause reinforces the company's role as a platform for overseas uranium asset development under China General Nuclear Power Group, highlighting its growth potential in seeking uranium resource investment opportunities [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-27 upwards by 15% and 10% to 1.028 billion and 1.135 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14 and 0.15 yuan [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 2.43 from HKD 1.88, reflecting a clearer expectation of volume and price for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 18.0x for 2026 [2]